TOURNAMENT
FINAL
Pool A · Feb 28, 2026
Bay State Waves Black
2–4
Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli
Current model vs. Result
180 games in sample
Calculated from the current model; not a stored pre-game forecast
Bay State Waves Black 27.0%
Draw 12.8%
60.2% Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli
Favored
Draw
Underdog
As expected
0.73 bits
Lower predicted probability means a more surprising result.
This band describes outcome probability; the UPSET badge separately identifies an upset winner.
Score Probability Matrix
Probability of each scoreline — rows = Bay State Waves Black, columns = Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli.
Scores of 0–7 cover 100.0% of outcomes.