The Sheet

What is Surprisal? Surprisal measures how surprising a result was, based on pre-game probabilities. 0 bits = perfectly predicted. 3+ bits = major upset. A result is flagged as an UPSET when surprisal exceeds 2.5 bits.

Standings

# Team GP W L T GF GA PTS Champ %
1 Boch Blazers - Busch 33 32 1 0 237 72 64 0%
2 Providence (North) - Bradley 34 24 9 1 256 130 49 100%
3 Young Guns - Kent 32 20 10 2 155 96 42 0%
4 MC Selects - Gajda 34 16 13 5 178 177 37 0%
5 Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli 35 14 19 2 157 176 30 0%
6 Spartans - Savage 32 13 17 2 172 212 28 0%
7 Northern Twisters - Weiand 34 7 23 4 92 180 18 0%
8 Bay State Waves Black 26 5 19 2 83 159 12 0%
9 Bay State Waves Green 26 2 22 2 59 187 6 —

Projected Finish

How the rest of the season could play out — remaining games are simulated with home ice and rating uncertainty, then finishing positions are tallied. Ranges show the likely spread, not a single guaranteed rank. An analytical model for discussion, not advice.

# Team Proj. Finish Win Division Proj. Points
1 Boch Blazers - Busch 1 100% 66 (66–66)
2 Providence (North) - Bradley 2 <1% 53 (53–53)
3 Young Guns - Kent 3 <1% 48 (46–48)
4 MC Selects - Gajda 4 <1% 37 (37–39)
5 Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli 5 <1% 30 (30–30)
6 Spartans - Savage 6 <1% 28 (28–28)
7 Northern Twisters - Weiand 7 <1% 18 (18–18)
8 Bay State Waves Black 8 <1% 15 (13–16)
9 Bay State Waves Green 9 <1% 7 (6–9)

Game Log

Oldest first
Date Matchup Score Pre-game Probability Surprisal Flag
Aug 01 Bay State Waves Green @ Bay State Waves Black Upcoming 50/50 —
Aug 01 Bay State Waves Green @ Young Guns - Kent Upcoming 50/50 —
Aug 01 Bay State Waves Black @ Bay State Waves Green Upcoming 50/50 —
Aug 01 Bay State Waves Green @ Providence (North) - Bradley Upcoming 50/50 —
Aug 01 Bay State Waves Black @ Providence (North) - Bradley Upcoming 50/50 —
Aug 01 MC Selects - Gajda @ Young Guns - Kent Upcoming 50/50 —
Aug 01 Bay State Waves Black @ Young Guns - Kent Upcoming 50/50 —
Aug 01 Young Guns - Kent @ MC Selects - Gajda 0–3 50/50 —
Aug 01 Spartans - Savage @ Boch Blazers - Busch Upcoming 50/50 —
Sep 06 Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli @ MC Selects - Gajda 14–6 50/50 —
Sep 07 MC Selects - Gajda @ Providence (North) - Bradley 2–12 50/50 —
Sep 07 Young Guns - Kent @ Spartans - Savage 13–3 50/50 —
Sep 13 Providence (North) - Bradley @ Spartans - Savage 11–2 50/50 —
Sep 13 Young Guns - Kent @ MC Selects - Gajda 12–2 50/50 —
Sep 14 Young Guns - Kent @ Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli 8–2 50/50 —
Sep 20 Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli @ Providence (North) - Bradley 5–12 50/50 —
Sep 20 Boch Blazers - Busch @ MC Selects - Gajda 3–5 50/50 —
Sep 21 Boch Blazers - Busch @ Young Guns - Kent 6–2 50/50 —
Sep 21 Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli @ Spartans - Savage 5–2 50/50 —
Sep 27 Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli @ Northern Twisters - Weiand 6–3 50/50 —
Sep 27 Young Guns - Kent @ Providence (North) - Bradley 5–6
23% 67%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
0.58
Sep 28 Providence (North) - Bradley @ Spartans - Savage 3–12
98% 1%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
6.66 UPSET
Sep 28 MC Selects - Gajda @ Northern Twisters - Weiand 3–3 50/50 —
Oct 04 Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli @ Boch Blazers - Busch 1–4 50/50 —
Oct 04 Northern Twisters - Weiand @ Young Guns - Kent 0–4 50/50 —
Oct 04 Providence (North) - Bradley @ MC Selects - Gajda 3–2
88% 7%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
0.18
Oct 05 Boch Blazers - Busch @ Northern Twisters - Weiand 7–0
68% 18%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
0.55
Oct 11 MC Selects - Gajda @ Northern Twisters - Weiand 5–1
48% 37%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
1.06
Oct 18 Providence (North) - Bradley @ MC Selects - Gajda 6–4
82% 12%
0.30
Oct 18 Spartans - Savage @ Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli 4–8
26% 64%
0.64
Oct 19 Boch Blazers - Busch @ Providence (North) - Bradley 3–2
50% 37%
1.01
Oct 25 Northern Twisters - Weiand @ Providence (North) - Bradley 0–9
5% 90%
0.15
Oct 25 Boch Blazers - Busch @ MC Selects - Gajda 6–4
80% 11%
0.31
Oct 26 MC Selects - Gajda @ Young Guns - Kent 4–13
7% 87%
0.20
Oct 26 Providence (North) - Bradley @ Boch Blazers - Busch 6–7
36% 50%
1.00
Nov 01 Spartans - Savage @ Young Guns - Kent 8–12
6% 90%
0.16
Nov 02 Spartans - Savage @ Providence (North) - Bradley 4–13
10% 84%
0.25
Nov 08 Young Guns - Kent @ Northern Twisters - Weiand 9–1
94% 3%
0.09
Nov 08 Bay State Waves Green @ Bay State Waves Black 1–8 50/50 —
Nov 08 Spartans - Savage @ MC Selects - Gajda 4–14
45% 43%
1.21
Nov 08 Boch Blazers - Busch @ Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli 7–6
68% 21%
0.56
Nov 08 Spartans - Savage @ MC Selects - Gajda 8–9
26% 64%
0.65
Nov 09 Spartans - Savage @ Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli 1–8
16% 76%
0.39
Nov 09 Northern Twisters - Weiand @ Boch Blazers - Busch 1–7
3% 93%
0.10
Nov 15 Providence (North) - Bradley @ Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli 9–4
62% 27%
0.68
Nov 15 Boch Blazers - Busch @ Bay State Waves Black 7–0 50/50 —
Nov 15 Spartans - Savage @ Northern Twisters - Weiand 5–3
67% 22%
0.58
Nov 16 Bay State Waves Green @ Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli 1–11 50/50 —
Nov 16 Northern Twisters - Weiand @ Providence (North) - Bradley 3–13
2% 96%
0.06
Nov 16 MC Selects - Gajda @ Boch Blazers - Busch 5–8
8% 85%
0.23
Nov 22 Spartans - Savage @ Young Guns - Kent 8–10
3% 95%
0.08
Nov 22 Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli @ MC Selects - Gajda 3–3
59% 30%
3.17 UPSET
Nov 22 Bay State Waves Black @ Northern Twisters - Weiand 2–4 50/50 —
Nov 23 Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli @ Bay State Waves Green 7–2 50/50 —
Nov 23 Young Guns - Kent @ Providence (North) - Bradley 3–7
38% 50%
1.00
Nov 23 Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli @ Bay State Waves Green 3–5
94% 3%
5.12 UPSET
Nov 29 Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli @ Boch Blazers - Busch 1–11
16% 74%
0.44
Nov 29 Young Guns - Kent @ Bay State Waves Black 4–3
83% 10%
0.27
Nov 29 Young Guns - Kent @ Bay State Waves Green 4–1
96% 2%
0.06
Nov 30 Northern Twisters - Weiand @ Bay State Waves Green 4–3
35% 48%
1.50
Nov 30 Boch Blazers - Busch @ Bay State Waves Black 8–3
84% 9%
0.25
Nov 30 Young Guns - Kent @ Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli 4–3
66% 24%
0.61
Dec 06 Young Guns - Kent @ Northern Twisters - Weiand 5–0
92% 4%
0.12
Dec 06 Bay State Waves Black @ MC Selects - Gajda 5–6
32% 55%
0.85
Dec 06 Spartans - Savage @ Bay State Waves Green 3–1
69% 21%
0.53
Dec 06 Boch Blazers - Busch @ Providence (North) - Bradley 4–2
48% 39%
1.05
Dec 06 Bay State Waves Green @ Spartans - Savage 7–11
16% 74%
0.43
Dec 07 Bay State Waves Green @ Northern Twisters - Weiand 0–9
40% 43%
1.21
Dec 07 Spartans - Savage @ Providence (North) - Bradley 4–12
2% 95%
0.07
Dec 07 MC Selects - Gajda @ Young Guns - Kent 4–4
13% 80%
3.69 UPSET
Dec 07 MC Selects - Gajda @ Northern Twisters - Weiand 3–4
72% 17%
2.57 UPSET
Dec 07 Bay State Waves Black @ Boch Blazers - Busch 1–10
4% 91%
0.13
Dec 13 Bay State Waves Black @ Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli 2–11
20% 69%
0.54
Dec 13 Providence (North) - Bradley @ MC Selects - Gajda 11–11
83% 10%
3.95 UPSET
Dec 14 Bay State Waves Green @ Northern Twisters - Weiand 4–6
24% 62%
0.70
Dec 14 Boch Blazers - Busch @ Spartans - Savage 10–1
95% 2%
0.07
Dec 14 MC Selects - Gajda @ Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli 10–4
31% 58%
1.68
Dec 14 Bay State Waves Black @ Providence (North) - Bradley 4–10
2% 95%
0.07
Dec 20 Spartans - Savage @ Northern Twisters - Weiand 5–5
54% 33%
2.97 UPSET
Dec 20 Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli @ Providence (North) - Bradley 2–10
13% 80%
0.32
Dec 20 Bay State Waves Black @ MC Selects - Gajda 0–10
16% 76%
0.40
Dec 20 Young Guns - Kent @ Boch Blazers - Busch 2–3
21% 66%
0.59
Dec 20 Young Guns - Kent @ Boch Blazers - Busch 1–4
22% 65%
0.61
Dec 21 Boch Blazers - Busch @ Providence (North) - Bradley 7–5
57% 31%
0.82
Dec 21 Bay State Waves Green @ Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli 2–4
4% 92%
0.11
Dec 21 Young Guns - Kent @ Bay State Waves Black 6–0
91% 5%
0.14
Dec 27 Boch Blazers - Busch @ Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli 8–3
85% 8%
0.24
Dec 27 Providence (North) - Bradley @ Northern Twisters - Weiand 8–2
93% 3%
0.10
Dec 27 Bay State Waves Black @ Bay State Waves Green 5–2
59% 28%
0.77
Dec 28 Northern Twisters - Weiand @ Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli 4–0
15% 75%
2.76 UPSET
Dec 28 Providence (North) - Bradley @ Bay State Waves Black 11–2
96% 2%
0.06
Dec 28 Providence (North) - Bradley @ Bay State Waves Black 8–2
96% 2%
0.05
Dec 28 Bay State Waves Green @ Boch Blazers - Busch 0–10
0% 99%
0.01
Jan 03 Providence (North) - Bradley @ Young Guns - Kent 4–1
48% 39%
1.06
Jan 03 Bay State Waves Black @ Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli 4–7
13% 78%
0.35
Jan 03 Spartans - Savage @ Boch Blazers - Busch 4–11
1% 98%
0.03
Jan 04 Bay State Waves Green @ Spartans - Savage 2–6
8% 86%
0.21
Jan 04 MC Selects - Gajda @ Providence (North) - Bradley 3–8
10% 84%
0.25
Jan 04 Boch Blazers - Busch @ Northern Twisters - Weiand 8–5
94% 3%
0.09
Jan 04 Bay State Waves Black @ Northern Twisters - Weiand 9–3
32% 53%
1.64
Jan 04 Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli @ Young Guns - Kent 1–5
14% 77%
0.38
Jan 10 Bay State Waves Green @ MC Selects - Gajda 6–11
2% 95%
0.07
Jan 10 Young Guns - Kent @ Boch Blazers - Busch 0–5
23% 64%
0.64
Jan 10 Northern Twisters - Weiand @ Bay State Waves Black 4–4
39% 46%
2.76
Jan 10 Providence (North) - Bradley @ Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli 3–5
84% 10%
3.35 UPSET
Jan 10 Spartans - Savage @ Bay State Waves Black 8–9
52% 36%
1.46
Jan 11 Bay State Waves Black @ Young Guns - Kent 3–2
5% 91%
4.44 UPSET
Jan 11 Boch Blazers - Busch @ Bay State Waves Green 12–3
99% 0%
0.01
Jan 11 MC Selects - Gajda @ Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli 5–2
46% 42%
1.11
Jan 11 Northern Twisters - Weiand @ Spartans - Savage 4–8
31% 57%
0.80
Jan 17 Providence (North) - Bradley @ Boch Blazers - Busch 1–7
26% 62%
0.69
Jan 17 Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli @ Young Guns - Kent 0–2
16% 73%
0.45
Jan 18 Providence (North) - Bradley @ Young Guns - Kent 1–4
50% 37%
1.43
Jan 24 Bay State Waves Black @ Spartans - Savage 1–5
34% 56%
0.85
Jan 24 Providence (North) - Bradley @ Bay State Waves Green 11–1
99% 0%
0.02
Jan 24 Boch Blazers - Busch @ MC Selects - Gajda 4–3
87% 7%
0.20
Jan 24 Bay State Waves Black @ Spartans - Savage 5–6
30% 59%
0.76
Jan 24 Northern Twisters - Weiand @ Young Guns - Kent 1–2
5% 89%
0.17
Jan 24 Providence (North) - Bradley @ Bay State Waves Green 6–0
99% 0%
0.01
Jan 25 Northern Twisters - Weiand @ Bay State Waves Green 0–0
65% 22%
2.90 UPSET
Jan 31 Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli @ Providence (North) - Bradley 2–10
9% 84%
0.25
Jan 31 Young Guns - Kent @ Bay State Waves Green 8–3
96% 2%
0.06
Jan 31 MC Selects - Gajda @ Spartans - Savage 5–4
72% 20%
0.47
Jan 31 MC Selects - Gajda @ Spartans - Savage 8–5
71% 21%
0.50
Jan 31 Northern Twisters - Weiand @ Boch Blazers - Busch 0–9
1% 97%
0.05
Feb 01 Northern Twisters - Weiand @ Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli 3–4
16% 73%
0.46
Feb 01 Bay State Waves Green @ MC Selects - Gajda 2–9
2% 95%
0.07
Feb 01 Providence (North) - Bradley @ Spartans - Savage 3–9
94% 3%
4.92 UPSET
Feb 01 Northern Twisters - Weiand @ MC Selects - Gajda 2–5
11% 82%
0.29
Feb 01 Boch Blazers - Busch @ Young Guns - Kent 4–0
64% 22%
0.65
Feb 07 Spartans - Savage @ Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli 4–3
28% 62%
1.85
Feb 07 Providence (North) - Bradley @ Northern Twisters - Weiand 7–1
93% 4%
0.11
Feb 08 Bay State Waves Black @ Spartans - Savage 2–2
27% 63%
3.25 UPSET
Feb 08 Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli @ Northern Twisters - Weiand 3–8
66% 21%
2.25
Feb 14 Young Guns - Kent @ Spartans - Savage 5–3
83% 10%
0.28
Feb 14 Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli @ Bay State Waves Black 6–3
62% 26%
0.70
Feb 14 Northern Twisters - Weiand @ MC Selects - Gajda 2–4
12% 80%
0.32
Feb 14 Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli @ Bay State Waves Black 6–2
63% 25%
0.67
Feb 15 MC Selects - Gajda @ Bay State Waves Black 4–2
77% 14%
0.37
Feb 15 Boch Blazers - Busch @ Bay State Waves Green 11–1
100% 0%
0.01
Feb 15 Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli @ Spartans - Savage 5–7
52% 36%
1.47
Feb 15 Northern Twisters - Weiand @ Young Guns - Kent 1–3
6% 87%
0.21
Feb 15 Bay State Waves Green @ Boch Blazers - Busch 1–10
0% 100%
0.00
Feb 21 Bay State Waves Green @ Providence (North) - Bradley 3–13
0% 99%
0.01
Feb 21 Spartans - Savage @ Northern Twisters - Weiand 9–4
56% 31%
0.83
Feb 21 MC Selects - Gajda @ Boch Blazers - Busch 1–8
5% 90%
0.14
Feb 21 Young Guns - Kent @ Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli 2–2
70% 18%
3.11 UPSET
Feb 22 MC Selects - Gajda @ Bay State Waves Green 5–5
93% 3%
4.89 UPSET
Feb 22 Northern Twisters - Weiand @ Spartans - Savage 1–7
23% 65%
0.61
Feb 22 MC Selects - Gajda @ Bay State Waves Green 0–3
92% 4%
4.55 UPSET
Feb 22 Bay State Waves Black @ Boch Blazers - Busch 2–8
1% 98%
0.03