TOURNAMENT
FINAL
Pool A · Feb 28, 2026
Bay State Waves Black
1–7
MC Selects - Gajda
Current model vs. Result
180 games in sample
Calculated from the current model; not a stored pre-game forecast
Bay State Waves Black 20.0%
Draw 10.5%
69.5% MC Selects - Gajda
Favored
Draw
Underdog
As expected
0.52 bits
Lower predicted probability means a more surprising result.
This band describes outcome probability; the UPSET badge separately identifies an upset winner.
Score Probability Matrix
Probability of each scoreline — rows = Bay State Waves Black, columns = MC Selects - Gajda.
Scores of 0–7 cover 100.0% of outcomes.