TOURNAMENT
FINAL
Pool A · Feb 28, 2026
Team Merrimack West
5–3
Young Guns
UPSET
Current model vs. Result
218 games in sample
Calculated from the current model; not a stored pre-game forecast
Team Merrimack West 15.0%
Draw 9.3%
75.7% Young Guns
Favored
Draw
Underdog
Major upset
2.74 bits
Lower predicted probability means a more surprising result.
This band describes outcome probability; the UPSET badge separately identifies an upset winner.
Score Probability Matrix
Probability of each scoreline — rows = Team Merrimack West, columns = Young Guns.
Scores of 0–7 cover 100.0% of outcomes.