The Sheet

What is Surprisal? Surprisal measures how surprising a result was, based on pre-game probabilities. 0 bits = perfectly predicted. 3+ bits = major upset. A result is flagged as an UPSET when surprisal exceeds 2.5 bits.

Standings

# Team GP W L T GF GA PTS Champ %
1 Young Guns 37 28 4 5 181 85 61 0%
2 Team Boston 35 23 8 4 147 108 50 0%
3 Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum 36 21 9 6 187 124 48 0%
4 MC Selects 35 20 10 5 217 146 45 0%
5 Team Merrimack West 36 17 17 2 209 227 36 45%
6 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 37 15 18 4 176 174 34 0%
7 New England Jr Dogs 36 14 20 2 138 180 30 0%
8 Providence (North) - Taylor 36 8 20 8 160 214 24 —
9 South Shore Knights 35 10 23 2 109 162 22 —
10 IHC East 17 - Bonito 24 7 11 6 73 74 20 55%
11 Boston Jr Dogs (White) 35 4 27 4 130 233 12 —

Projected Finish

How the rest of the season could play out — remaining games are simulated with home ice and rating uncertainty, then finishing positions are tallied. Ranges show the likely spread, not a single guaranteed rank. An analytical model for discussion, not advice.

# Team Proj. Finish Win Division Proj. Points
1 Young Guns 1 100% 61 (61–61)
2 Team Boston 2 <1% 52 (51–52)
3 Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum 3 <1% 50 (48–50)
4 MC Selects 4 <1% 47 (46–47)
5 Team Merrimack West 5 <1% 36 (36–36)
6 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 6 <1% 34 (34–34)
7 New England Jr Dogs 7 <1% 30 (30–32)
8 Providence (North) - Taylor 8 <1% 24 (24–24)
9 South Shore Knights 9 (8–9) <1% 22 (22–23)
10 IHC East 17 - Bonito 10 <1% 20 (20–20)
11 Boston Jr Dogs (White) 11 <1% 12 (12–13)

Game Log

Oldest first
Date Matchup Score Pre-game Probability Surprisal Flag
Aug 01 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Team Boston Upcoming 50/50 —
Aug 01 Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum @ New England Jr Dogs Upcoming 50/50 —
Aug 01 MC Selects @ South Shore Knights Upcoming 50/50 —
Aug 31 Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum @ Team Merrimack West 8–2 50/50 —
Sep 06 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Providence (North) - Taylor 3–8 50/50 —
Sep 06 Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum @ MC Selects 6–6 50/50 —
Sep 06 Team Merrimack West @ New England Jr Dogs 8–13 50/50 —
Sep 06 South Shore Knights @ Team Boston 2–3 50/50 —
Sep 07 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 3–8 50/50 —
Sep 07 South Shore Knights @ Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum 2–10 50/50 —
Sep 13 Young Guns @ South Shore Knights 10–1 50/50 —
Sep 13 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ Providence (North) - Taylor 13–3 50/50 —
Sep 13 Team Merrimack West @ Team Boston 2–8 50/50 —
Sep 13 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ MC Selects 7–7 50/50 —
Sep 13 Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum @ New England Jr Dogs 3–4 50/50 —
Sep 14 Young Guns @ Team Merrimack West 5–3 50/50 —
Sep 14 MC Selects @ New England Jr Dogs 7–6 50/50 —
Sep 14 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 5–4 50/50 —
Sep 14 Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum @ Providence (North) - Taylor 12–4 50/50 —
Sep 20 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ South Shore Knights 7–3
93% 4%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
0.10
Sep 20 Young Guns @ MC Selects 4–2 50/50 —
Sep 20 Team Boston @ Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum 3–3 50/50 —
Sep 20 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Providence (North) - Taylor 6–8
49% 40%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
1.32
Sep 21 Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 5–4
41% 46%
1.28
Sep 21 Young Guns @ New England Jr Dogs 4–1
58% 30%
0.78
Sep 21 South Shore Knights @ Team Boston 2–3
9% 84%
0.26
Sep 27 Team Boston @ Team Merrimack West 10–1
72% 18%
0.47
Sep 27 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ Young Guns 2–4
31% 54%
0.87
Sep 27 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ MC Selects 5–12
18% 73%
0.46
Sep 27 South Shore Knights @ New England Jr Dogs 2–1
11% 81%
3.14 UPSET
Sep 28 Young Guns @ Team Merrimack West 7–2
93% 3%
0.10
Sep 28 New England Jr Dogs @ Team Boston 4–6
22% 65%
0.61
Sep 28 MC Selects @ South Shore Knights 10–3
76% 16%
0.40
Oct 04 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ Team Merrimack West 4–8
91% 5%
4.34 UPSET
Oct 04 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ South Shore Knights 5–7
46% 40%
1.31
Oct 04 Providence (North) - Taylor @ MC Selects 4–5
7% 89%
0.17
Oct 04 Young Guns @ Team Boston 6–1
49% 34%
1.02
Oct 04 New England Jr Dogs @ Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum 6–7
18% 72%
0.47
Oct 05 Team Boston @ Providence (North) - Taylor 6–2
78% 14%
0.36
Oct 05 Young Guns @ South Shore Knights 8–1
91% 4%
0.13
Oct 05 MC Selects @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 7–5
41% 47%
1.30
Oct 05 Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 7–2
90% 6%
0.16
Oct 11 Providence (North) - Taylor @ Team Merrimack West 11–11
36% 53%
3.24
Oct 11 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum 7–5
23% 66%
2.10
Oct 12 Team Merrimack West @ Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum 5–6
7% 88%
0.18
Oct 12 Providence (North) - Taylor @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 4–7
50% 39%
1.36
Oct 12 South Shore Knights @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 3–6
9% 84%
0.25
Oct 18 New England Jr Dogs @ Young Guns 3–4
9% 84%
0.26
Oct 18 Team Merrimack West @ MC Selects 9–3
13% 81%
2.98 UPSET
Oct 18 Providence (North) - Taylor @ Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum 5–3
6% 89%
4.03 UPSET
Oct 18 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ Team Boston 4–3
30% 57%
1.76
Oct 19 Providence (North) - Taylor @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 8–1
13% 80%
2.94 UPSET
Oct 19 New England Jr Dogs @ Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum 1–9
28% 60%
0.74
Oct 25 Team Merrimack West @ Providence (North) - Taylor 4–7
43% 47%
1.10
Oct 25 Young Guns @ Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum 4–0
61% 25%
0.71
Oct 25 Team Boston @ South Shore Knights 3–1
82% 10%
0.29
Oct 25 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ MC Selects 7–5
42% 46%
1.27
Oct 25 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ New England Jr Dogs 3–8
20% 71%
0.50
Oct 26 New England Jr Dogs @ Providence (North) - Taylor 3–4
51% 37%
1.42
Oct 26 South Shore Knights @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 0–2
10% 82%
0.29
Oct 26 MC Selects @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 6–2
74% 18%
0.44
Oct 26 Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum @ Team Boston 3–4
40% 45%
1.16
Nov 01 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ Young Guns 4–6
10% 81%
0.30
Nov 01 Providence (North) - Taylor @ Team Boston 3–4
17% 73%
0.46
Nov 01 Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum @ MC Selects 9–4
58% 31%
0.80
Nov 02 Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 4–4
56% 32%
2.99 UPSET
Nov 02 Young Guns @ Providence (North) - Taylor 5–1
87% 7%
0.21
Nov 02 Team Boston @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 7–6
82% 10%
0.29
Nov 02 MC Selects @ New England Jr Dogs 8–3
43% 45%
1.21
Nov 08 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Team Merrimack West 4–7
24% 67%
0.58
Nov 08 South Shore Knights @ Young Guns 2–1
2% 95%
5.61 UPSET
Nov 08 Team Boston @ MC Selects 3–2
53% 34%
0.92
Nov 09 Team Merrimack West @ MC Selects 6–8
24% 66%
0.59
Nov 09 South Shore Knights @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 6–4
36% 50%
1.46
Nov 15 South Shore Knights @ Team Merrimack West 3–4
24% 65%
0.62
Nov 15 Team Boston @ IHC East 17 - Bonito 4–3 50/50 —
Nov 15 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ New England Jr Dogs 3–5
55% 33%
1.61
Nov 15 MC Selects @ Young Guns 4–1
10% 82%
3.30 UPSET
Nov 15 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum 1–9
6% 90%
0.16
Nov 16 Young Guns @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 9–3
92% 4%
0.12
Nov 16 Providence (North) - Taylor @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 4–4
26% 63%
3.18 UPSET
Nov 16 Team Boston @ New England Jr Dogs 6–3
60% 27%
0.75
Nov 16 MC Selects @ Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum 0–4
25% 64%
0.64
Nov 22 MC Selects @ Team Boston 6–2
28% 59%
1.83
Nov 22 Team Merrimack West @ Providence (North) - Taylor 7–13
37% 52%
0.93
Nov 22 South Shore Knights @ Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum 1–4
6% 87%
0.20
Nov 22 Young Guns @ New England Jr Dogs 4–1
78% 12%
0.35
Nov 23 MC Selects @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 9–5
43% 44%
1.21
Nov 23 New England Jr Dogs @ South Shore Knights 3–6
63% 24%
2.04
Nov 23 Providence (North) - Taylor @ Young Guns 1–7
8% 84%
0.24
Nov 29 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Team Merrimack West 10–8
23% 68%
2.12
Nov 29 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ IHC East 17 - Bonito 5–3 50/50 —
Nov 29 Providence (North) - Taylor @ South Shore Knights 6–6
59% 29%
2.97 UPSET
Nov 29 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ IHC East 17 - Bonito 4–5 50/50 —
Nov 30 Young Guns @ IHC East 17 - Bonito 4–3
77% 12%
0.38
Nov 30 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ Team Merrimack West 7–8
64% 26%
1.95
Nov 30 Team Boston @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 2–4
79% 12%
3.01 UPSET
Nov 30 Providence (North) - Taylor @ New England Jr Dogs 5–8
41% 47%
1.10
Dec 06 South Shore Knights @ Young Guns 2–7
5% 89%
0.17
Dec 06 Providence (North) - Taylor @ Team Merrimack West 7–10
48% 41%
1.28
Dec 06 MC Selects @ Team Boston 3–3
38% 47%
2.81
Dec 06 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum 2–2
21% 68%
3.16 UPSET
Dec 06 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ New England Jr Dogs 4–4
22% 68%
3.33 UPSET
Dec 06 South Shore Knights @ IHC East 17 - Bonito 6–5
20% 68%
2.33
Dec 07 Providence (North) - Taylor @ IHC East 17 - Bonito 3–3
36% 52%
3.07
Dec 07 Team Boston @ Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum 5–1
30% 55%
1.76
Dec 07 New England Jr Dogs @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 2–12
30% 58%
0.79
Dec 07 Young Guns @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 3–3
91% 4%
4.44 UPSET
Dec 07 Team Merrimack West @ South Shore Knights 5–1
52% 36%
0.94
Dec 13 South Shore Knights @ MC Selects 1–10
12% 80%
0.33
Dec 13 Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum @ IHC East 17 - Bonito 2–1
67% 21%
0.58
Dec 13 Team Boston @ Providence (North) - Taylor 4–4
63% 24%
3.02 UPSET
Dec 13 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 5–7
14% 77%
0.37
Dec 14 MC Selects @ Providence (North) - Taylor 5–5
66% 24%
3.32 UPSET
Dec 14 IHC East 17 - Bonito @ South Shore Knights 2–1
60% 26%
0.74
Dec 14 Team Boston @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 8–5
47% 38%
1.10
Dec 14 Team Merrimack West @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 7–7
54% 36%
3.26
Dec 20 Young Guns @ MC Selects 4–3
65% 22%
0.63
Dec 20 South Shore Knights @ Providence (North) - Taylor 3–3
21% 68%
3.17 UPSET
Dec 20 Team Merrimack West @ New England Jr Dogs 8–5
42% 47%
1.27
Dec 20 IHC East 17 - Bonito @ Team Boston 1–2
23% 62%
0.68
Dec 21 Team Merrimack West @ South Shore Knights 7–6
60% 28%
0.72
Dec 21 Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum @ Providence (North) - Taylor 10–3
71% 19%
0.50
Dec 21 Team Boston @ Young Guns 3–3
22% 62%
2.68 UPSET
Dec 21 New England Jr Dogs @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 3–1
49% 39%
1.03
Dec 21 MC Selects @ IHC East 17 - Bonito 5–0
58% 28%
0.77
Dec 27 IHC East 17 - Bonito @ Team Merrimack West 2–5
38% 48%
1.04
Dec 27 IHC East 17 - Bonito @ New England Jr Dogs 2–2
37% 47%
2.69
Dec 28 New England Jr Dogs @ Team Merrimack West 3–13
36% 53%
0.92
Dec 28 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ Team Boston 3–6
30% 56%
0.84
Jan 03 Team Merrimack West @ Young Guns 4–6
8% 87%
0.21
Jan 03 Team Boston @ IHC East 17 - Bonito 2–1
64% 21%
0.65
Jan 03 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ South Shore Knights 4–3
71% 18%
0.49
Jan 03 Providence (North) - Taylor @ Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum 2–8
13% 79%
0.34
Jan 03 New England Jr Dogs @ MC Selects 4–8
13% 79%
0.34
Jan 04 Young Guns @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 3–4
70% 18%
2.44
Jan 04 MC Selects @ Team Merrimack West 5–7
67% 24%
2.07
Jan 04 Providence (North) - Taylor @ South Shore Knights 0–7
58% 30%
1.76
Jan 04 Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 5–3
84% 9%
0.25
Jan 04 Team Boston @ Young Guns 5–7
25% 59%
0.77
Jan 10 Providence (North) - Taylor @ MC Selects 2–12
15% 76%
0.39
Jan 10 Team Merrimack West @ Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum 5–9
14% 78%
0.35
Jan 10 IHC East 17 - Bonito @ Team Boston 0–5
18% 67%
0.57
Jan 10 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ New England Jr Dogs 3–5
65% 24%
2.05
Jan 10 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ South Shore Knights 1–5
42% 44%
1.20
Jan 11 Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum @ Young Guns 3–3
30% 54%
2.69 UPSET
Jan 11 Team Merrimack West @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 9–3
30% 60%
1.73
Jan 11 IHC East 17 - Bonito @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 6–2
43% 41%
1.22
Jan 18 Team Merrimack West @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 5–4
68% 23%
0.57
Jan 24 IHC East 17 - Bonito @ Providence (North) - Taylor 7–4
40% 45%
1.32
Jan 24 New England Jr Dogs @ MC Selects 1–8
13% 79%
0.33
Jan 24 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Young Guns 1–9
5% 91%
0.14
Jan 24 Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum @ Team Merrimack West 8–4
72% 19%
0.48
Jan 25 Team Merrimack West @ Team Boston 4–7
20% 70%
0.52
Jan 25 New England Jr Dogs @ IHC East 17 - Bonito 4–3
34% 50%
1.55
Jan 25 Young Guns @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 5–1
72% 17%
0.48
Jan 25 Providence (North) - Taylor @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 7–2
52% 36%
0.95
Jan 31 New England Jr Dogs @ South Shore Knights 7–5
45% 41%
1.16
Jan 31 Providence (North) - Taylor @ Young Guns 3–5
6% 89%
0.17
Jan 31 Team Boston @ MC Selects 5–8
40% 45%
1.14
Jan 31 Team Merrimack West @ IHC East 17 - Bonito 2–6
49% 38%
1.42
Feb 01 Young Guns @ Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum 2–4
50% 34%
1.54
Feb 01 MC Selects @ Providence (North) - Taylor 4–4
76% 15%
3.63 UPSET
Feb 01 IHC East 17 - Bonito @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 2–2
31% 54%
2.76 UPSET
Feb 01 South Shore Knights @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 7–4
45% 41%
1.16
Feb 01 New England Jr Dogs @ Team Merrimack West 2–5
28% 62%
0.70
Feb 07 IHC East 17 - Bonito @ Young Guns 0–0
12% 75%
3.02 UPSET
Feb 07 New England Jr Dogs @ Providence (North) - Taylor 6–4
37% 51%
1.44
Feb 07 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum 4–3
5% 91%
4.40 UPSET
Feb 07 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ MC Selects 4–7
24% 65%
0.61
Feb 07 Team Boston @ South Shore Knights 2–0
72% 16%
0.47
Feb 08 South Shore Knights @ Team Merrimack West 5–7
24% 66%
0.61
Feb 08 IHC East 17 - Bonito @ Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum 5–5
17% 69%
2.84 UPSET
Feb 08 MC Selects @ Young Guns 6–8
24% 62%
0.69
Feb 08 New England Jr Dogs @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 6–3
52% 36%
0.95
Feb 14 IHC East 17 - Bonito @ MC Selects 3–1
21% 66%
2.23
Feb 14 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Young Guns 2–10
4% 92%
0.13
Feb 14 New England Jr Dogs @ Team Boston 3–1
15% 75%
2.75 UPSET
Feb 14 Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum @ Young Guns 2–3
29% 56%
0.84
Feb 14 Team Boston @ New England Jr Dogs 4–0
67% 21%
0.58
Feb 15 MC Selects @ Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum 10–1
33% 54%
1.59
Feb 15 Young Guns @ IHC East 17 - Bonito 2–2
67% 17%
2.67 UPSET
Feb 15 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 10–3
72% 19%
0.48
Feb 15 South Shore Knights @ New England Jr Dogs 2–3
34% 52%
0.95
Feb 15 Providence (North) - Taylor @ Team Boston 4–5
15% 76%
0.40
Feb 21 Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum @ Team Boston 4–2
42% 42%
1.24
Feb 21 South Shore Knights @ Providence (North) - Taylor 3–2
32% 54%
1.62
Feb 21 New England Jr Dogs @ Young Guns 0–3
8% 85%
0.24
Feb 21 Team Merrimack West @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 4–3
33% 57%
1.61
Feb 22 MC Selects @ Team Merrimack West 11–3
70% 22%
0.52
Feb 22 New England Jr Dogs @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 5–2
25% 64%
2.01
Feb 22 Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum @ South Shore Knights 3–1
76% 14%
0.39
Feb 22 Young Guns @ Providence (North) - Taylor 5–2
84% 9%
0.25
Feb 22 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ IHC East 17 - Bonito 2–8
18% 69%
0.53