TOURNAMENT
FINAL
Pool B · Feb 28, 2026
Boston Jr Dogs
2–2
Team Merrimack
UPSET
Current model vs. Result
153 games in sample
Calculated from the current model; not a stored pre-game forecast
Boston Jr Dogs 25.9%
Draw 17.0%
57.1% Team Merrimack
Favored
Draw
Underdog
Major upset
2.56 bits
Lower predicted probability means a more surprising result.
This band describes outcome probability; the UPSET badge separately identifies an upset winner.
Score Probability Matrix
Probability of each scoreline — rows = Boston Jr Dogs, columns = Team Merrimack.
Scores of 0–7 cover 100.0% of outcomes.