The Sheet

What is Surprisal? Surprisal measures how surprising a result was, based on pre-game probabilities. 0 bits = perfectly predicted. 3+ bits = major upset. A result is flagged as an UPSET when surprisal exceeds 2.5 bits.

Standings

# Team GP W L T GF GA PTS Champ %
1 Team Boston 2018 Elite 33 32 0 1 159 23 65 96%
2 Team Merrimack 35 20 12 3 107 63 43 0%
3 Boston Jr Dogs 35 16 13 6 95 85 38 0%
4 Bay State Waves 2018 Elite 35 15 13 7 79 53 37 0%
5 Minuteman Sparks 33 16 13 4 67 67 36 4%
6 Young Guns 35 14 16 5 78 85 33 0%
7 South Shore Knights 35 9 20 6 76 103 24 0%
8 Providence 35 0 35 0 23 205 0 0%

Projected Finish

How the rest of the season could play out — remaining games are simulated with home ice and rating uncertainty, then finishing positions are tallied. Ranges show the likely spread, not a single guaranteed rank. An analytical model for discussion, not advice.

# Team Proj. Finish Win Division Proj. Points
1 Team Boston 2018 Elite 1 100% 69 (68–69)
2 Team Merrimack 2 <1% 43 (43–43)
3 Boston Jr Dogs 3 <1% 38 (38–38)
4 Bay State Waves 2018 Elite 4 (4–5) <1% 37 (37–37)
5 Minuteman Sparks 5 (4–5) <1% 36 (36–37)
6 Young Guns 6 <1% 33 (33–33)
7 South Shore Knights 7 <1% 24 (24–24)
8 Providence 8 <1% 0 (0–0)

Game Log

Oldest first
Date Matchup Score Pre-game Probability Surprisal Flag
Aug 01 Minuteman Sparks @ Team Boston 2018 Elite Upcoming — —
Aug 01 Minuteman Sparks @ Team Boston 2018 Elite Upcoming — —
Sep 06 South Shore Knights @ Boston Jr Dogs 2–8 50/50 —
Sep 06 Minuteman Sparks @ Providence 5–1 50/50 —
Sep 06 Young Guns @ Team Boston 2018 Elite 1–6 50/50 —
Sep 07 South Shore Knights @ Young Guns 3–4 50/50 —
Sep 07 Team Boston 2018 Elite @ Minuteman Sparks 5–0
36% 30%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
1.46
Sep 07 Boston Jr Dogs @ Providence 11–1 50/50 —
Sep 13 Team Boston 2018 Elite @ Team Merrimack 4–1 50/50 —
Sep 13 South Shore Knights @ Providence 3–0 50/50 —
Sep 13 Minuteman Sparks @ Boston Jr Dogs 1–2 50/50 —
Sep 14 Young Guns @ Minuteman Sparks 2–2 50/50 —
Sep 14 South Shore Knights @ Bay State Waves 2018 Elite 2–3 50/50 —
Sep 14 Boston Jr Dogs @ Team Boston 2018 Elite 1–7
40% 42%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
1.25
Sep 20 Young Guns @ Team Merrimack 3–4 50/50 —
Sep 20 South Shore Knights @ Bay State Waves 2018 Elite 1–5 50/50 —
Sep 21 Team Merrimack @ Bay State Waves 2018 Elite 4–2 50/50 —
Sep 21 Young Guns @ South Shore Knights 3–1
52% 31%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
0.93
Sep 27 Team Merrimack @ South Shore Knights 8–1
66% 19%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
0.60
Sep 27 Providence @ Team Boston 2018 Elite 0–8
0% 98%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
0.02
Sep 27 Minuteman Sparks @ Bay State Waves 2018 Elite 2–1
39% 37%
1.35
Sep 27 Young Guns @ Boston Jr Dogs 2–6
18% 70%
0.52
Sep 28 Minuteman Sparks @ Young Guns 2–1
49% 29%
1.04
Sep 28 Bay State Waves 2018 Elite @ Providence 9–0
83% 8%
0.27
Oct 04 Team Merrimack @ Team Boston 2018 Elite 1–9
15% 72%
0.48
Oct 04 Providence @ South Shore Knights 0–6
15% 72%
0.48
Oct 04 Young Guns @ Bay State Waves 2018 Elite 3–1
24% 60%
2.09
Oct 05 Team Merrimack @ Young Guns 2–1
53% 32%
0.92
Oct 05 Team Boston 2018 Elite @ Bay State Waves 2018 Elite 6–1
82% 8%
0.29
Oct 05 Boston Jr Dogs @ South Shore Knights 1–3
87% 7%
3.93 UPSET
Oct 11 Minuteman Sparks @ Team Merrimack 1–2
36% 42%
1.25
Oct 11 South Shore Knights @ Young Guns 4–4
24% 59%
2.54 UPSET
Oct 11 Team Boston 2018 Elite @ Boston Jr Dogs 4–1
80% 10%
0.31
Oct 12 Providence @ Team Merrimack 0–10
1% 98%
0.03
Oct 12 Minuteman Sparks @ Bay State Waves 2018 Elite 3–1
40% 35%
1.31
Oct 18 Young Guns @ Team Boston 2018 Elite 0–4
3% 91%
0.14
Oct 18 Providence @ Minuteman Sparks 0–6
2% 93%
0.10
Oct 18 Team Merrimack @ Boston Jr Dogs 0–4
42% 43%
1.23
Oct 19 South Shore Knights @ Team Merrimack 3–4
12% 76%
0.39
Oct 19 Boston Jr Dogs @ Bay State Waves 2018 Elite 1–1
62% 23%
2.74 UPSET
Oct 19 Team Boston 2018 Elite @ Providence 6–0
100% 0%
0.00
Oct 26 Team Boston 2018 Elite @ Bay State Waves 2018 Elite 2–0
85% 5%
0.23
Oct 26 Minuteman Sparks @ Team Merrimack 0–2
40% 38%
1.39
Nov 01 Bay State Waves 2018 Elite @ Young Guns 1–0
44% 36%
1.20
Nov 01 South Shore Knights @ Boston Jr Dogs 2–4
9% 82%
0.29
Nov 02 Bay State Waves 2018 Elite @ South Shore Knights 4–0
58% 24%
0.78
Nov 02 Boston Jr Dogs @ Team Boston 2018 Elite 2–4
8% 80%
0.32
Nov 08 Team Merrimack @ South Shore Knights 3–5
74% 14%
2.79 UPSET
Nov 08 Providence @ Team Boston 2018 Elite 0–10
0% 100%
0.00
Nov 08 Minuteman Sparks @ Boston Jr Dogs 1–4
30% 47%
1.09
Nov 09 Team Merrimack @ Boston Jr Dogs 2–2
26% 58%
2.74 UPSET
Nov 09 Team Boston 2018 Elite @ Bay State Waves 2018 Elite 3–1
80% 8%
0.33
Nov 09 Providence @ South Shore Knights 2–6
3% 92%
0.13
Nov 15 Providence @ Young Guns 0–5
2% 93%
0.10
Nov 15 Team Merrimack @ Team Boston 2018 Elite 0–2
6% 86%
0.22
Nov 15 Bay State Waves 2018 Elite @ Boston Jr Dogs 2–3
26% 55%
0.85
Nov 15 South Shore Knights @ Minuteman Sparks 2–3
19% 62%
0.68
Nov 16 Minuteman Sparks @ Boston Jr Dogs 2–1
26% 52%
1.94
Nov 16 Young Guns @ Bay State Waves 2018 Elite 0–0
27% 52%
2.25
Nov 22 Bay State Waves 2018 Elite @ Team Boston 2018 Elite 1–1
6% 82%
3.05 UPSET
Nov 22 Team Merrimack @ Boston Jr Dogs 6–1
30% 53%
1.74
Nov 22 Minuteman Sparks @ Providence 3–1
93% 2%
0.10
Nov 23 Bay State Waves 2018 Elite @ Providence 6–0
94% 2%
0.08
Nov 23 Minuteman Sparks @ Team Boston 2018 Elite 1–4
7% 77%
0.38
Nov 29 Minuteman Sparks @ South Shore Knights 3–2
57% 23%
0.81
Nov 29 Young Guns @ Team Merrimack 3–1
21% 62%
2.24
Nov 30 Providence @ Team Merrimack 1–8
0% 99%
0.02
Nov 30 Young Guns @ Minuteman Sparks 3–1
29% 45%
1.77
Dec 06 Bay State Waves 2018 Elite @ Minuteman Sparks 1–1
39% 33%
1.85
Dec 06 Boston Jr Dogs @ Team Merrimack 0–2
40% 42%
1.24
Dec 06 Team Boston 2018 Elite @ South Shore Knights 3–1
95% 2%
0.07
Dec 06 Team Boston 2018 Elite @ South Shore Knights 5–3
94% 2%
0.09
Dec 06 Young Guns @ Providence 4–0
94% 2%
0.08
Dec 07 Team Boston 2018 Elite @ Team Merrimack 3–2
75% 11%
0.41
Dec 07 Providence @ Boston Jr Dogs 2–6
0% 99%
0.02
Dec 07 Minuteman Sparks @ Young Guns 2–3
38% 36%
1.46
Dec 07 South Shore Knights @ Bay State Waves 2018 Elite 1–1
19% 64%
2.57 UPSET
Dec 13 Young Guns @ South Shore Knights 2–0
52% 30%
0.93
Dec 13 Bay State Waves 2018 Elite @ Team Boston 2018 Elite 0–4
9% 76%
0.40
Dec 13 Providence @ Minuteman Sparks 1–4
2% 93%
0.10
Dec 14 South Shore Knights @ Minuteman Sparks 2–3
24% 56%
0.84
Dec 14 Team Boston 2018 Elite @ Young Guns 3–1
81% 7%
0.31
Dec 14 Providence @ Bay State Waves 2018 Elite 0–6
1% 95%
0.07
Dec 20 Team Boston 2018 Elite @ Minuteman Sparks 4–1
77% 8%
0.38
Dec 20 Team Merrimack @ Providence 6–0
98% 0%
0.02
Dec 20 Bay State Waves 2018 Elite @ South Shore Knights 1–1
58% 23%
2.40
Dec 20 Young Guns @ Boston Jr Dogs 1–3
30% 51%
0.96
Dec 21 Bay State Waves 2018 Elite @ Young Guns 4–0
41% 34%
1.30
Dec 21 South Shore Knights @ Providence 5–1
92% 3%
0.12
Dec 21 Team Merrimack @ Minuteman Sparks 1–2
49% 29%
1.79
Dec 21 Boston Jr Dogs @ Team Boston 2018 Elite 0–4
8% 81%
0.30
Dec 27 Team Merrimack @ Bay State Waves 2018 Elite 2–1
40% 38%
1.33
Dec 28 Boston Jr Dogs @ Providence 5–1
98% 0%
0.03
Dec 28 Boston Jr Dogs @ Providence 4–3
98% 1%
0.03
Dec 28 Bay State Waves 2018 Elite @ Team Merrimack 2–0
33% 45%
1.61
Jan 03 South Shore Knights @ Team Boston 2018 Elite 0–5
2% 95%
0.08
Jan 03 Team Merrimack @ Minuteman Sparks 5–0
46% 31%
1.11
Jan 03 Boston Jr Dogs @ Bay State Waves 2018 Elite 0–1
33% 44%
1.18
Jan 03 Young Guns @ Providence 3–2
92% 2%
0.11
Jan 04 South Shore Knights @ Providence 6–0
90% 4%
0.15
Jan 04 Boston Jr Dogs @ Young Guns 1–5
48% 32%
1.65
Jan 04 Bay State Waves 2018 Elite @ Minuteman Sparks 3–0
44% 28%
1.18
Jan 04 Team Boston 2018 Elite @ Team Merrimack 4–1
76% 11%
0.40
Jan 10 South Shore Knights @ Minuteman Sparks 2–2
28% 51%
2.26
Jan 10 Bay State Waves 2018 Elite @ Providence 8–0
95% 1%
0.08
Jan 10 Team Merrimack @ Young Guns 2–2
52% 28%
2.35
Jan 10 Team Boston 2018 Elite @ Boston Jr Dogs 7–0
84% 6%
0.25
Jan 11 Bay State Waves 2018 Elite @ Team Merrimack 2–1
38% 38%
1.39
Jan 11 Boston Jr Dogs @ Minuteman Sparks 0–1
42% 36%
1.48
Jan 11 Young Guns @ South Shore Knights 1–1
50% 30%
2.39
Jan 11 Providence @ Team Boston 2018 Elite 0–10
0% 100%
0.00
Jan 24 Team Boston 2018 Elite @ Young Guns 6–1
85% 5%
0.24
Jan 24 Bay State Waves 2018 Elite @ Minuteman Sparks 2–4
49% 24%
2.07
Jan 24 Boston Jr Dogs @ South Shore Knights 2–1
54% 29%
0.89
Jan 24 Team Merrimack @ Providence 7–1
98% 0%
0.03
Jan 25 South Shore Knights @ Team Merrimack 1–0
15% 71%
2.71 UPSET
Jan 25 Young Guns @ Providence 3–1
94% 2%
0.10
Jan 25 Boston Jr Dogs @ Bay State Waves 2018 Elite 1–1
26% 53%
2.25
Jan 31 Team Merrimack @ Young Guns 4–1
52% 28%
0.93
Jan 31 Providence @ Boston Jr Dogs 3–4
1% 97%
0.05
Feb 01 Bay State Waves 2018 Elite @ Team Merrimack 1–3
38% 39%
1.36
Feb 01 Minuteman Sparks @ South Shore Knights 1–2
46% 32%
1.67
Feb 01 Team Boston 2018 Elite @ Providence 4–1
100% 0%
0.00
Feb 01 Boston Jr Dogs @ Young Guns 5–2
42% 38%
1.26
Feb 07 Providence @ Minuteman Sparks 0–3
3% 91%
0.13
Feb 07 Team Merrimack @ South Shore Knights 4–0
64% 20%
0.63
Feb 07 Bay State Waves 2018 Elite @ Boston Jr Dogs 0–3
48% 30%
1.72
Feb 08 South Shore Knights @ Team Boston 2018 Elite 0–5
2% 94%
0.09
Feb 08 Bay State Waves 2018 Elite @ Young Guns 2–1
51% 26%
0.97
Feb 08 Providence @ Team Merrimack 0–6
0% 98%
0.02
Feb 08 Boston Jr Dogs @ Minuteman Sparks 2–2
41% 36%
2.15
Feb 14 Providence @ Young Guns 1–5
2% 93%
0.11
Feb 14 Minuteman Sparks @ Team Merrimack 0–2
23% 56%
0.83
Feb 15 Boston Jr Dogs @ Team Merrimack 1–1
26% 57%
2.51 UPSET
Feb 15 Minuteman Sparks @ Young Guns 5–3
38% 37%
1.38
Feb 21 Young Guns @ Team Boston 2018 Elite 0–2
3% 91%
0.14
Feb 21 Providence @ Bay State Waves 2018 Elite 0–4
1% 96%
0.06
Feb 21 South Shore Knights @ Boston Jr Dogs 3–3
23% 60%
2.58 UPSET
Feb 22 Boston Jr Dogs @ Young Guns 3–5
47% 34%
1.58
Feb 22 Team Boston 2018 Elite @ South Shore Knights 5–1
92% 2%
0.11