TOURNAMENT
FINAL
Pool A · Feb 28, 2026
Providence
0–2
Minuteman Sparks
Current model vs. Result
153 games in sample
Calculated from the current model; not a stored pre-game forecast
Providence 3.2%
Draw 6.4%
90.4% Minuteman Sparks
Favored
Draw
Underdog
As expected
0.15 bits
Lower predicted probability means a more surprising result.
This band describes outcome probability; the UPSET badge separately identifies an upset winner.
Score Probability Matrix
Probability of each scoreline — rows = Providence, columns = Minuteman Sparks.
Scores of 0–7 cover 100.0% of outcomes.