TOURNAMENT
ELIMINATION
FINAL
Semifinal 1 · Mar 07, 2026
Minuteman Sparks
0–1
Team Merrimack
Current model vs. Result
153 games in sample
Calculated from the current model; not a stored pre-game forecast
Minuteman Sparks 29.5%
70.5% Team Merrimack
Favored
Underdog
As expected
0.50 bits
Lower predicted probability means a more surprising result.
This band describes outcome probability; the UPSET badge separately identifies an upset winner.
Score Probability Matrix
Probability of each scoreline — rows = Minuteman Sparks, columns = Team Merrimack.
Scores of 0–7 cover 100.0% of outcomes.