TOURNAMENT
ELIMINATION
FINAL
Final · Mar 08, 2026
Team Merrimack
0–5
Team Boston 2018 Elite
Current model vs. Result
153 games in sample
Calculated from the current model; not a stored pre-game forecast
Team Merrimack 10.4%
89.6% Team Boston 2018 Elite
Favored
Underdog
As expected
0.16 bits
Lower predicted probability means a more surprising result.
This band describes outcome probability; the UPSET badge separately identifies an upset winner.
Score Probability Matrix
Probability of each scoreline — rows = Team Merrimack, columns = Team Boston 2018 Elite.
Scores of 0–7 cover 100.0% of outcomes.