TOURNAMENT
FINAL
Pool A · Feb 28, 2026
Team Merrimack West
2–2
Bay State Waves 2018 UG
UPSET
Current model vs. Result
193 games in sample
Calculated from the current model; not a stored pre-game forecast
Team Merrimack West 11.7%
Draw 9.8%
78.4% Bay State Waves 2018 UG
Favored
Draw
Underdog
Major upset
3.35 bits
Lower predicted probability means a more surprising result.
This band describes outcome probability; the UPSET badge separately identifies an upset winner.
Score Probability Matrix
Probability of each scoreline — rows = Team Merrimack West, columns = Bay State Waves 2018 UG.
Scores of 0–7 cover 100.0% of outcomes.