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TOURNAMENT FINAL Pool A · Feb 28, 2026
Team Merrimack West
2–2
Bay State Waves 2018 UG
UPSET

Current model vs. Result

193 games in sample

Calculated from the current model; not a stored pre-game forecast

Team Merrimack West 11.7% Draw 9.8% 78.4% Bay State Waves 2018 UG
Result: draw
Favored Draw Underdog
Major upset

3.35 bits

Lower predicted probability means a more surprising result.

This band describes outcome probability; the UPSET badge separately identifies an upset winner.

Score Probability Matrix

Probability of each scoreline — rows = Team Merrimack West, columns = Bay State Waves 2018 UG.

Scores of 0–7 cover 100.0% of outcomes.