The Sheet

What is Surprisal? Surprisal measures how surprising a result was, based on pre-game probabilities. 0 bits = perfectly predicted. 3+ bits = major upset. A result is flagged as an UPSET when surprisal exceeds 2.5 bits.

Standings

# Team GP W L T GF GA PTS Champ %
1 Minuteman Sparks - ONeil 35 30 3 2 233 53 62 62%
2 New England Jr Dogs - Spencer 36 25 4 7 204 81 57 17%
3 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black 36 23 9 4 149 80 50 6%
4 Little Stars - Gorman 35 22 8 5 172 74 49 13%
5 Bay State Waves 2018 UG 36 19 14 3 107 76 41 2%
6 Boston Jr Dogs (White) 36 16 20 0 119 120 32 0%
7 Young Guns 35 15 19 1 186 198 31 0%
8 Team Merrimack West 36 10 26 0 127 240 20 0%
9 Northers Twisters - Dulong 35 4 30 1 88 267 9 —
10 Boch Blazers 36 2 33 1 73 269 5 —

Projected Finish

How the rest of the season could play out — remaining games are simulated with home ice and rating uncertainty, then finishing positions are tallied. Ranges show the likely spread, not a single guaranteed rank. An analytical model for discussion, not advice.

# Team Proj. Finish Win Division Proj. Points
1 Minuteman Sparks - ONeil 1 100% 64 (64–64)
2 New England Jr Dogs - Spencer 2 <1% 57 (57–57)
3 Little Stars - Gorman 3 (3–4) <1% 51 (50–51)
4 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black 4 (3–4) <1% 50 (50–50)
5 Bay State Waves 2018 UG 5 <1% 41 (41–41)
6 Boston Jr Dogs (White) 6 <1% 32 (32–32)
7 Young Guns 7 (6–7) <1% 31 (31–32)
8 Team Merrimack West 8 <1% 20 (20–20)
9 Northers Twisters - Dulong 9 <1% 9 (9–9)
10 Boch Blazers 10 <1% 5 (5–5)

Game Log

Oldest first
Date Matchup Score Pre-game Probability Surprisal Flag
Aug 01 Minuteman Sparks - ONeil @ Northers Twisters - Dulong Upcoming 50/50 —
Aug 01 Little Stars - Gorman @ Young Guns Upcoming 50/50 —
Sep 06 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black @ Young Guns 4–6 50/50 —
Sep 06 Team Merrimack West @ Bay State Waves 2018 UG 0–10 50/50 —
Sep 06 Boch Blazers @ Minuteman Sparks - ONeil 2–12 50/50 —
Sep 07 Team Merrimack West @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black 1–6 50/50 —
Sep 07 Young Guns @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 8–1 50/50 —
Sep 07 Little Stars - Gorman @ New England Jr Dogs - Spencer 4–4 50/50 —
Sep 07 Minuteman Sparks - ONeil @ Bay State Waves 2018 UG 7–0 50/50 —
Sep 13 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Team Merrimack West 6–3 50/50 —
Sep 13 New England Jr Dogs - Spencer @ Young Guns 6–6 50/50 —
Sep 13 Little Stars - Gorman @ Minuteman Sparks - ONeil 2–7 50/50 —
Sep 13 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black @ Bay State Waves 2018 UG 2–2 50/50 —
Sep 14 Boch Blazers @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black 1–11 50/50 —
Sep 14 New England Jr Dogs - Spencer @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 5–2 50/50 —
Sep 20 Boch Blazers @ Young Guns 4–12 50/50 —
Sep 20 Little Stars - Gorman @ Team Merrimack West 8–3 50/50 —
Sep 20 New England Jr Dogs - Spencer @ Bay State Waves 2018 UG 3–3
42% 44%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
2.75
Sep 20 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black 0–1
11% 80%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
0.33
Sep 21 Boch Blazers @ Team Merrimack West 5–10
53% 35%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
1.50
Sep 21 Minuteman Sparks - ONeil @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black 3–3
66% 21%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
2.95 UPSET
Sep 21 Bay State Waves 2018 UG @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 2–3
63% 23%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
2.10
Sep 21 Young Guns @ Little Stars - Gorman 7–4
63% 26%
0.66
Sep 27 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Boch Blazers 8–3
74% 16%
0.43
Sep 27 Team Merrimack West @ Bay State Waves 2018 UG 0–6
8% 86%
0.22
Sep 27 Minuteman Sparks - ONeil @ Little Stars - Gorman 4–2
79% 12%
0.34
Sep 27 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black @ New England Jr Dogs - Spencer 3–2
45% 39%
1.15
Sep 28 Young Guns @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black 0–5
43% 42%
1.23
Sep 28 Northers Twisters - Dulong @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 2–8 50/50 —
Sep 28 Boch Blazers @ Little Stars - Gorman 1–11
4% 93%
0.11
Sep 28 Team Merrimack West @ New England Jr Dogs - Spencer 6–4
4% 93%
4.78 UPSET
Oct 05 Bay State Waves 2018 UG @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black 2–4
27% 57%
0.81
Oct 05 Little Stars - Gorman @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 4–1
49% 36%
1.04
Oct 05 Boch Blazers @ New England Jr Dogs - Spencer 0–10
3% 95%
0.08
Oct 11 Bay State Waves 2018 UG @ Young Guns 5–1
32% 55%
1.65
Oct 11 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ New England Jr Dogs - Spencer 4–5
28% 58%
0.78
Oct 11 Northers Twisters - Dulong @ Minuteman Sparks - ONeil 0–10 50/50 —
Oct 12 Boch Blazers @ Team Merrimack West 8–2
13% 79%
2.93 UPSET
Oct 12 Minuteman Sparks - ONeil @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black 4–2
56% 29%
0.84
Oct 12 Northers Twisters - Dulong @ New England Jr Dogs - Spencer 2–10 50/50 —
Oct 18 New England Jr Dogs - Spencer @ Minuteman Sparks - ONeil 6–4
10% 82%
3.30 UPSET
Oct 18 Little Stars - Gorman @ Bay State Waves 2018 UG 1–1
34% 50%
2.70 UPSET
Oct 18 Young Guns @ Boch Blazers 10–5
97% 1%
0.04
Oct 18 Northers Twisters - Dulong @ Team Merrimack West 4–2
33% 55%
1.60
Oct 19 Young Guns @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 3–7
60% 28%
1.85
Oct 19 Northers Twisters - Dulong @ Little Stars - Gorman 0–10
5% 90%
0.15
Oct 19 Bay State Waves 2018 UG @ New England Jr Dogs - Spencer 0–4
40% 44%
1.18
Oct 25 Minuteman Sparks - ONeil @ Young Guns 13–4
79% 13%
0.34
Oct 25 Boch Blazers @ Bay State Waves 2018 UG 1–5
4% 93%
0.11
Oct 25 Little Stars - Gorman @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black 4–1
32% 52%
1.63
Oct 26 Northers Twisters - Dulong @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black 2–12
2% 94%
0.09
Oct 26 Young Guns @ Little Stars - Gorman 7–9
22% 68%
0.57
Oct 26 Team Merrimack West @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 2–7
8% 84%
0.24
Nov 01 Bay State Waves 2018 UG @ Team Merrimack West 2–1
86% 7%
0.22
Nov 02 Northers Twisters - Dulong @ Team Merrimack West 5–11
30% 57%
0.81
Nov 02 Bay State Waves 2018 UG @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 3–1
47% 36%
1.09
Nov 02 Young Guns @ New England Jr Dogs - Spencer 6–7
23% 66%
0.59
Nov 08 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Minuteman Sparks - ONeil 2–3
7% 86%
0.21
Nov 08 Young Guns @ Bay State Waves 2018 UG 3–5
32% 54%
0.90
Nov 08 Northers Twisters - Dulong @ Boch Blazers 4–8
30% 58%
0.78
Nov 08 Team Merrimack West @ Little Stars - Gorman 2–10
3% 94%
0.09
Nov 09 Young Guns @ Northers Twisters - Dulong 13–3
97% 2%
0.04
Nov 09 Minuteman Sparks - ONeil @ Team Merrimack West 11–4
99% 0%
0.02
Nov 09 Boch Blazers @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 0–6
6% 88%
0.19
Nov 15 Young Guns @ Minuteman Sparks - ONeil 2–12
7% 88%
0.19
Nov 15 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black @ Team Merrimack West 5–0
93% 4%
0.11
Nov 15 Little Stars - Gorman @ Northers Twisters - Dulong 12–3
98% 1%
0.03
Nov 15 New England Jr Dogs - Spencer @ Boch Blazers 8–0
96% 2%
0.06
Nov 15 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Bay State Waves 2018 UG 3–2
31% 52%
1.69
Nov 16 Young Guns @ Team Merrimack West 9–13
90% 6%
3.99 UPSET
Nov 16 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black 1–6
22% 63%
0.66
Nov 16 Boch Blazers @ Little Stars - Gorman 1–8
1% 98%
0.03
Nov 16 Minuteman Sparks - ONeil @ New England Jr Dogs - Spencer 6–2
68% 20%
0.55
Nov 22 Minuteman Sparks - ONeil @ Boch Blazers 8–0
100% 0%
0.01
Nov 22 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Little Stars - Gorman 2–5
21% 66%
0.60
Nov 22 Bay State Waves 2018 UG @ Northers Twisters - Dulong 2–0
93% 3%
0.11
Nov 23 New England Jr Dogs - Spencer @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black 1–1
29% 56%
2.72 UPSET
Nov 23 Northers Twisters - Dulong @ Young Guns 7–8
1% 98%
0.03
Nov 23 Minuteman Sparks - ONeil @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 3–2
83% 9%
0.27
Nov 23 Bay State Waves 2018 UG @ Little Stars - Gorman 2–3
28% 55%
0.87
Nov 23 Team Merrimack West @ Boch Blazers 8–2
63% 26%
0.66
Nov 29 Minuteman Sparks - ONeil @ Northers Twisters - Dulong 9–4
100% 0%
0.00
Nov 29 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black @ Bay State Waves 2018 UG 4–1
52% 27%
0.95
Nov 29 New England Jr Dogs - Spencer @ Little Stars - Gorman 3–3
34% 51%
2.77 UPSET
Nov 30 Little Stars - Gorman @ Northers Twisters - Dulong 3–1
97% 1%
0.04
Nov 30 Bay State Waves 2018 UG @ Boch Blazers 8–1
88% 6%
0.19
Nov 30 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Young Guns 5–3
46% 41%
1.11
Nov 30 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black @ New England Jr Dogs - Spencer 3–3
51% 32%
2.55 UPSET
Dec 06 New England Jr Dogs - Spencer @ Team Merrimack West 10–0
89% 6%
0.16
Dec 06 Little Stars - Gorman @ Boch Blazers 9–0
97% 1%
0.04
Dec 06 Bay State Waves 2018 UG @ Minuteman Sparks - ONeil 1–4
15% 72%
0.47
Dec 06 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Northers Twisters - Dulong 4–2
86% 7%
0.21
Dec 06 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black @ Young Guns 8–3
80% 12%
0.33
Dec 07 Northers Twisters - Dulong @ Bay State Waves 2018 UG 0–4
5% 90%
0.16
Dec 07 Boch Blazers @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black 1–7
0% 98%
0.02
Dec 07 Little Stars - Gorman @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 1–3
61% 24%
2.06
Dec 07 Young Guns @ Team Merrimack West 8–2
79% 14%
0.34
Dec 07 Minuteman Sparks - ONeil @ New England Jr Dogs - Spencer 8–0
63% 24%
0.66
Dec 13 Little Stars - Gorman @ Young Guns 6–3
74% 17%
0.43
Dec 13 Bay State Waves 2018 UG @ Boch Blazers 5–0
90% 4%
0.15
Dec 13 Team Merrimack West @ Minuteman Sparks - ONeil 1–11
0% 99%
0.01
Dec 13 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black @ Northers Twisters - Dulong 11–1
97% 1%
0.05
Dec 13 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ New England Jr Dogs - Spencer 3–8
25% 60%
0.74
Dec 14 Young Guns @ Northers Twisters - Dulong 15–6
92% 4%
0.12
Dec 14 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Minuteman Sparks - ONeil 0–8
7% 86%
0.21
Dec 14 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black @ Little Stars - Gorman 0–4
49% 33%
1.61
Dec 14 Boch Blazers @ New England Jr Dogs - Spencer 2–9
1% 98%
0.02
Dec 14 Bay State Waves 2018 UG @ Team Merrimack West 6–1
80% 10%
0.32
Dec 20 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black @ Minuteman Sparks - ONeil 0–7
23% 62%
0.69
Dec 20 Young Guns @ Boch Blazers 5–1
95% 3%
0.08
Dec 20 New England Jr Dogs - Spencer @ Northers Twisters - Dulong 9–0
97% 1%
0.04
Dec 20 Little Stars - Gorman @ Bay State Waves 2018 UG 0–1
49% 32%
1.64
Dec 20 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Team Merrimack West 3–4
76% 14%
2.82 UPSET
Dec 21 Northers Twisters - Dulong @ Minuteman Sparks - ONeil 0–8
0% 100%
0.00
Dec 21 Team Merrimack West @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black 2–6
2% 95%
0.08
Dec 21 Boch Blazers @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 1–4
5% 90%
0.14
Dec 27 Team Merrimack West @ Northers Twisters - Dulong 4–7
64% 25%
2.00
Dec 27 Little Stars - Gorman @ Boch Blazers 3–0
98% 1%
0.03
Dec 28 Boch Blazers @ Northers Twisters - Dulong 5–5
32% 55%
2.94 UPSET
Dec 28 Team Merrimack West @ Little Stars - Gorman 3–7
2% 95%
0.07
Jan 03 New England Jr Dogs - Spencer @ Northers Twisters - Dulong 11–1
97% 1%
0.04
Jan 03 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Boch Blazers 10–0
87% 7%
0.20
Jan 03 Minuteman Sparks - ONeil @ Bay State Waves 2018 UG 2–3
73% 15%
2.77 UPSET
Jan 03 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black @ Team Merrimack West 7–3
93% 3%
0.11
Jan 04 Bay State Waves 2018 UG @ Northers Twisters - Dulong 5–0
91% 4%
0.14
Jan 04 Young Guns @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black 1–2
11% 81%
0.30
Jan 04 Team Merrimack West @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 5–3
11% 81%
3.17 UPSET
Jan 04 Boch Blazers @ Minuteman Sparks - ONeil 1–11
0% 100%
0.00
Jan 04 New England Jr Dogs - Spencer @ Little Stars - Gorman 2–2
39% 46%
2.71
Jan 10 New England Jr Dogs - Spencer @ Minuteman Sparks - ONeil 4–1
14% 75%
2.79 UPSET
Jan 10 Northers Twisters - Dulong @ Boch Blazers 6–5
48% 38%
1.05
Jan 10 Team Merrimack West @ Young Guns 2–7
10% 85%
0.23
Jan 10 Bay State Waves 2018 UG @ Little Stars - Gorman 2–1
33% 49%
1.61
Jan 11 Little Stars - Gorman @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black 7–0
36% 47%
1.46
Jan 11 Boch Blazers @ Bay State Waves 2018 UG 0–6
2% 94%
0.08
Jan 11 Northers Twisters - Dulong @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 2–7
5% 89%
0.16
Jan 11 Young Guns @ New England Jr Dogs - Spencer 1–5
11% 82%
0.28
Jan 11 Minuteman Sparks - ONeil @ Team Merrimack West 9–0
99% 0%
0.01
Jan 11 Team Merrimack West @ New England Jr Dogs - Spencer 2–10
2% 96%
0.06
Jan 24 New England Jr Dogs - Spencer @ Boch Blazers 9–0
99% 0%
0.02
Jan 24 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Northers Twisters - Dulong 4–2
87% 7%
0.20
Jan 24 Minuteman Sparks - ONeil @ Little Stars - Gorman 2–2
64% 22%
2.89 UPSET
Jan 24 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black @ Northers Twisters - Dulong 5–1
96% 2%
0.06
Jan 25 New England Jr Dogs - Spencer @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black 2–1
45% 39%
1.16
Jan 25 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Little Stars - Gorman 1–6
16% 72%
0.47
Jan 25 Bay State Waves 2018 UG @ Young Guns 5–6
63% 24%
2.08
Jan 31 New England Jr Dogs - Spencer @ Team Merrimack West 10–3
95% 2%
0.07
Jan 31 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black @ Boch Blazers 4–1
97% 1%
0.05
Jan 31 Northers Twisters - Dulong @ Bay State Waves 2018 UG 0–2
3% 93%
0.10
Jan 31 Young Guns @ Minuteman Sparks - ONeil 0–10
2% 96%
0.06
Feb 01 Boch Blazers @ Young Guns 1–8
2% 97%
0.05
Feb 01 Bay State Waves 2018 UG @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black 1–2
34% 47%
1.09
Feb 01 Minuteman Sparks - ONeil @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 3–0
88% 6%
0.18
Feb 01 Northers Twisters - Dulong @ New England Jr Dogs - Spencer 1–8
0% 99%
0.02
Feb 01 Little Stars - Gorman @ Team Merrimack West 6–0
94% 3%
0.08
Feb 04 Little Stars - Gorman @ Minuteman Sparks - ONeil 1–4
19% 68%
0.55
Feb 07 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black @ Minuteman Sparks - ONeil 1–2
15% 74%
0.44
Feb 07 Team Merrimack West @ Boch Blazers 6–5
71% 19%
0.50
Feb 07 Young Guns @ Bay State Waves 2018 UG 5–1
21% 66%
2.23
Feb 07 Northers Twisters - Dulong @ Little Stars - Gorman 0–8
1% 98%
0.02
Feb 08 Northers Twisters - Dulong @ Young Guns 4–6
2% 95%
0.07
Feb 08 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 2–1
63% 22%
0.67
Feb 08 Bay State Waves 2018 UG @ New England Jr Dogs - Spencer 1–4
26% 58%
0.80
Feb 08 Team Merrimack West @ Minuteman Sparks - ONeil 0–8
0% 100%
0.01
Feb 14 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black @ Boch Blazers 3–2
96% 1%
0.05
Feb 14 New England Jr Dogs - Spencer @ Young Guns 11–1
81% 12%
0.30
Feb 14 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Bay State Waves 2018 UG 0–3
28% 55%
0.85
Feb 15 Northers Twisters - Dulong @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black 1–11
2% 96%
0.06
Feb 15 Minuteman Sparks - ONeil @ Young Guns 5–1
96% 2%
0.06
Feb 15 New England Jr Dogs - Spencer @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 4–1
74% 14%
0.43
Feb 21 Team Merrimack West @ Northers Twisters - Dulong 12–3
62% 27%
0.69
Feb 21 Minuteman Sparks - ONeil @ Boch Blazers 9–1
100% 0%
0.00
Feb 21 New England Jr Dogs - Spencer @ Bay State Waves 2018 UG 4–0
56% 28%
0.84
Feb 21 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Young Guns 5–2
41% 46%
1.30
Feb 21 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black @ Little Stars - Gorman 2–6
34% 50%
1.01
Feb 22 Boch Blazers @ Northers Twisters - Dulong 5–9
35% 52%
0.94
Feb 22 Team Merrimack West @ Young Guns 9–6
11% 83%
3.18 UPSET
Feb 22 Bay State Waves 2018 UG @ Minuteman Sparks - ONeil 0–5
11% 78%
0.36
Feb 22 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 4–1
61% 24%
0.71
Feb 22 Little Stars - Gorman @ New England Jr Dogs - Spencer 0–1
37% 48%
1.07