The Sheet

What is Surprisal? Surprisal measures how surprising a result was, based on pre-game probabilities. 0 bits = perfectly predicted. 3+ bits = major upset. A result is flagged as an UPSET when surprisal exceeds 2.5 bits.

Standings

# Team GP W L T GF GA PTS Champ %
1 Minuteman Sparks - ONeil 35 30 3 2 233 53 62 60%
2 New England Jr Dogs - Spencer 36 25 4 7 204 81 57 19%
3 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black 36 23 9 4 149 80 50 6%
4 Little Stars - Gorman 35 22 8 5 172 74 49 13%
5 Bay State Waves 2018 UG 36 19 14 3 107 76 41 2%
6 Boston Jr Dogs (White) 36 16 20 0 119 120 32 0%
7 Young Guns 35 15 19 1 186 198 31 0%
8 Team Merrimack West 36 10 26 0 127 240 20 0%
9 Northers Twisters - Dulong 35 4 30 1 88 267 9 —
10 Boch Blazers 36 2 33 1 73 269 5 —

Projected Finish

How the rest of the season could play out — remaining games are simulated with home ice and rating uncertainty, then finishing positions are tallied. Ranges show the likely spread, not a single guaranteed rank. An analytical model for discussion, not advice.

# Team Proj. Finish Win Division Proj. Points
1 Minuteman Sparks - ONeil 1 100% 64 (64–64)
2 New England Jr Dogs - Spencer 2 <1% 57 (57–57)
3 Little Stars - Gorman 3 (3–4) <1% 51 (50–51)
4 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black 4 (3–4) <1% 50 (50–50)
5 Bay State Waves 2018 UG 5 <1% 41 (41–41)
6 Boston Jr Dogs (White) 6 <1% 32 (32–32)
7 Young Guns 7 (6–7) <1% 31 (31–32)
8 Team Merrimack West 8 <1% 20 (20–20)
9 Northers Twisters - Dulong 9 <1% 9 (9–9)
10 Boch Blazers 10 <1% 5 (5–5)

Game Log

Oldest first
Date Matchup Score Pre-game Probability Surprisal Flag
Aug 01 Minuteman Sparks - ONeil @ Northers Twisters - Dulong Upcoming — —
Aug 01 Little Stars - Gorman @ Young Guns Upcoming — —
Sep 06 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black @ Young Guns 4–6 50/50 —
Sep 06 Team Merrimack West @ Bay State Waves 2018 UG 0–10 50/50 —
Sep 06 Boch Blazers @ Minuteman Sparks - ONeil 2–12 50/50 —
Sep 07 Team Merrimack West @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black 1–6 50/50 —
Sep 07 Young Guns @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 8–1 50/50 —
Sep 07 Little Stars - Gorman @ New England Jr Dogs - Spencer 4–4 50/50 —
Sep 07 Minuteman Sparks - ONeil @ Bay State Waves 2018 UG 7–0 50/50 —
Sep 13 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Team Merrimack West 6–3 50/50 —
Sep 13 New England Jr Dogs - Spencer @ Young Guns 6–6 50/50 —
Sep 13 Little Stars - Gorman @ Minuteman Sparks - ONeil 2–7 50/50 —
Sep 13 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black @ Bay State Waves 2018 UG 2–2 50/50 —
Sep 14 Boch Blazers @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black 1–11 50/50 —
Sep 14 New England Jr Dogs - Spencer @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 5–2 50/50 —
Sep 20 Boch Blazers @ Young Guns 4–12 50/50 —
Sep 20 Little Stars - Gorman @ Team Merrimack West 8–3
82% 10%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
0.30
Sep 20 New England Jr Dogs - Spencer @ Bay State Waves 2018 UG 3–3
43% 43%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
2.75
Sep 20 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black 0–1
11% 79%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
0.33
Sep 21 Boch Blazers @ Team Merrimack West 5–10
52% 37%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
1.44
Sep 21 Minuteman Sparks - ONeil @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black 3–3
64% 21%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
2.72 UPSET
Sep 21 Bay State Waves 2018 UG @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 2–3
63% 21%
2.22
Sep 21 Young Guns @ Little Stars - Gorman 7–4
56% 30%
0.84
Sep 27 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Boch Blazers 8–3
74% 16%
0.42
Sep 27 Team Merrimack West @ Bay State Waves 2018 UG 0–6
7% 86%
0.22
Sep 27 Minuteman Sparks - ONeil @ Little Stars - Gorman 4–2
74% 15%
0.44
Sep 27 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black @ New England Jr Dogs - Spencer 3–2
45% 38%
1.14
Sep 28 Young Guns @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black 0–5
42% 43%
1.23
Sep 28 Northers Twisters - Dulong @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 2–8 50/50 —
Sep 28 Boch Blazers @ Little Stars - Gorman 1–11
4% 93%
0.11
Sep 28 Team Merrimack West @ New England Jr Dogs - Spencer 6–4
3% 93%
4.90 UPSET
Oct 05 Bay State Waves 2018 UG @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black 2–4
25% 57%
0.82
Oct 05 Little Stars - Gorman @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 4–1
48% 36%
1.05
Oct 05 Boch Blazers @ New England Jr Dogs - Spencer 0–10
2% 96%
0.07
Oct 11 Bay State Waves 2018 UG @ Young Guns 5–1
31% 54%
1.68
Oct 11 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ New England Jr Dogs - Spencer 4–5
28% 58%
0.80
Oct 11 Northers Twisters - Dulong @ Minuteman Sparks - ONeil 0–10 50/50 —
Oct 12 Boch Blazers @ Team Merrimack West 8–2
13% 80%
2.99 UPSET
Oct 12 Minuteman Sparks - ONeil @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black 4–2
52% 30%
0.95
Oct 12 Northers Twisters - Dulong @ New England Jr Dogs - Spencer 2–10
12% 79%
0.35
Oct 18 New England Jr Dogs - Spencer @ Minuteman Sparks - ONeil 6–4
12% 78%
3.02 UPSET
Oct 18 Little Stars - Gorman @ Bay State Waves 2018 UG 1–1
34% 48%
2.54 UPSET
Oct 18 Young Guns @ Boch Blazers 10–5
97% 2%
0.04
Oct 18 Northers Twisters - Dulong @ Team Merrimack West 4–2
40% 46%
1.31
Oct 19 Young Guns @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 3–7
59% 28%
1.86
Oct 19 Northers Twisters - Dulong @ Little Stars - Gorman 0–10
8% 83%
0.26
Oct 19 Bay State Waves 2018 UG @ New England Jr Dogs - Spencer 0–4
40% 44%
1.18
Oct 25 Minuteman Sparks - ONeil @ Young Guns 13–4
72% 18%
0.47
Oct 25 Boch Blazers @ Bay State Waves 2018 UG 1–5
3% 93%
0.10
Oct 25 Little Stars - Gorman @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black 4–1
31% 50%
1.68
Oct 26 Northers Twisters - Dulong @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black 2–12
4% 91%
0.14
Oct 26 Young Guns @ Little Stars - Gorman 7–9
23% 65%
0.61
Oct 26 Team Merrimack West @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 2–7
8% 84%
0.25
Nov 01 Bay State Waves 2018 UG @ Team Merrimack West 2–1
85% 7%
0.23
Nov 02 Northers Twisters - Dulong @ Team Merrimack West 5–11
35% 51%
0.96
Nov 02 Bay State Waves 2018 UG @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 3–1
45% 35%
1.14
Nov 02 Young Guns @ New England Jr Dogs - Spencer 6–7
24% 66%
0.60
Nov 08 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Minuteman Sparks - ONeil 2–3
9% 82%
0.28
Nov 08 Young Guns @ Bay State Waves 2018 UG 3–5
33% 53%
0.93
Nov 08 Northers Twisters - Dulong @ Boch Blazers 4–8
36% 52%
0.96
Nov 08 Team Merrimack West @ Little Stars - Gorman 2–10
3% 93%
0.10
Nov 09 Young Guns @ Northers Twisters - Dulong 13–3
95% 2%
0.07
Nov 09 Minuteman Sparks - ONeil @ Team Merrimack West 11–4
98% 1%
0.03
Nov 09 Boch Blazers @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 0–6
6% 88%
0.18
Nov 15 Young Guns @ Minuteman Sparks - ONeil 2–12
10% 83%
0.27
Nov 15 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black @ Team Merrimack West 5–0
93% 3%
0.10
Nov 15 Little Stars - Gorman @ Northers Twisters - Dulong 12–3
97% 1%
0.05
Nov 15 New England Jr Dogs - Spencer @ Boch Blazers 8–0
96% 2%
0.06
Nov 15 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Bay State Waves 2018 UG 3–2
29% 50%
1.77
Nov 16 Young Guns @ Team Merrimack West 9–13
89% 6%
3.98 UPSET
Nov 16 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black 1–6
20% 63%
0.66
Nov 16 Boch Blazers @ Little Stars - Gorman 1–8
1% 98%
0.04
Nov 16 Minuteman Sparks - ONeil @ New England Jr Dogs - Spencer 6–2
64% 23%
0.65
Nov 22 Minuteman Sparks - ONeil @ Boch Blazers 8–0
99% 0%
0.01
Nov 22 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Little Stars - Gorman 2–5
20% 66%
0.61
Nov 22 Bay State Waves 2018 UG @ Northers Twisters - Dulong 2–0
90% 4%
0.14
Nov 23 New England Jr Dogs - Spencer @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black 1–1
28% 56%
2.65 UPSET
Nov 23 Northers Twisters - Dulong @ Young Guns 7–8
2% 97%
0.05
Nov 23 Minuteman Sparks - ONeil @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 3–2
80% 10%
0.31
Nov 23 Bay State Waves 2018 UG @ Little Stars - Gorman 2–3
27% 54%
0.90
Nov 23 Team Merrimack West @ Boch Blazers 8–2
64% 25%
0.64
Nov 29 Minuteman Sparks - ONeil @ Northers Twisters - Dulong 9–4
99% 0%
0.01
Nov 29 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black @ Bay State Waves 2018 UG 4–1
52% 26%
0.96
Nov 29 New England Jr Dogs - Spencer @ Little Stars - Gorman 3–3
34% 51%
2.73 UPSET
Nov 30 Little Stars - Gorman @ Northers Twisters - Dulong 3–1
96% 2%
0.06
Nov 30 Bay State Waves 2018 UG @ Boch Blazers 8–1
88% 5%
0.19
Nov 30 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Young Guns 5–3
45% 42%
1.16
Nov 30 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black @ New England Jr Dogs - Spencer 3–3
51% 31%
2.53 UPSET
Dec 06 New England Jr Dogs - Spencer @ Team Merrimack West 10–0
90% 6%
0.16
Dec 06 Little Stars - Gorman @ Boch Blazers 9–0
97% 1%
0.04
Dec 06 Bay State Waves 2018 UG @ Minuteman Sparks - ONeil 1–4
16% 70%
0.53
Dec 06 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Northers Twisters - Dulong 4–2
84% 8%
0.24
Dec 06 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black @ Young Guns 8–3
78% 13%
0.35
Dec 07 Northers Twisters - Dulong @ Bay State Waves 2018 UG 0–4
5% 88%
0.19
Dec 07 Boch Blazers @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black 1–7
0% 99%
0.02
Dec 07 Little Stars - Gorman @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 1–3
61% 24%
2.08
Dec 07 Young Guns @ Team Merrimack West 8–2
79% 14%
0.33
Dec 07 Minuteman Sparks - ONeil @ New England Jr Dogs - Spencer 8–0
61% 26%
0.72
Dec 13 Little Stars - Gorman @ Young Guns 6–3
73% 18%
0.46
Dec 13 Bay State Waves 2018 UG @ Boch Blazers 5–0
90% 4%
0.14
Dec 13 Team Merrimack West @ Minuteman Sparks - ONeil 1–11
0% 99%
0.01
Dec 13 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black @ Northers Twisters - Dulong 11–1
96% 2%
0.06
Dec 13 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ New England Jr Dogs - Spencer 3–8
25% 60%
0.74
Dec 14 Young Guns @ Northers Twisters - Dulong 15–6
91% 5%
0.14
Dec 14 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Minuteman Sparks - ONeil 0–8
8% 84%
0.25
Dec 14 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black @ Little Stars - Gorman 0–4
49% 32%
1.62
Dec 14 Boch Blazers @ New England Jr Dogs - Spencer 2–9
1% 98%
0.02
Dec 14 Bay State Waves 2018 UG @ Team Merrimack West 6–1
81% 10%
0.31
Dec 20 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black @ Minuteman Sparks - ONeil 0–7
24% 59%
0.75
Dec 20 Young Guns @ Boch Blazers 5–1
95% 2%
0.07
Dec 20 New England Jr Dogs - Spencer @ Northers Twisters - Dulong 9–0
96% 2%
0.05
Dec 20 Little Stars - Gorman @ Bay State Waves 2018 UG 0–1
48% 31%
1.68
Dec 20 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Team Merrimack West 3–4
76% 14%
2.82 UPSET
Dec 21 Northers Twisters - Dulong @ Minuteman Sparks - ONeil 0–8
0% 100%
0.00
Dec 21 Team Merrimack West @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black 2–6
2% 95%
0.08
Dec 21 Boch Blazers @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 1–4
4% 90%
0.14
Dec 27 Team Merrimack West @ Northers Twisters - Dulong 4–7
62% 27%
1.89
Dec 27 Little Stars - Gorman @ Boch Blazers 3–0
98% 1%
0.04
Dec 28 Boch Blazers @ Northers Twisters - Dulong 5–5
30% 57%
2.94 UPSET
Dec 28 Team Merrimack West @ Little Stars - Gorman 3–7
2% 95%
0.08
Jan 03 New England Jr Dogs - Spencer @ Northers Twisters - Dulong 11–1
97% 2%
0.05
Jan 03 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Boch Blazers 10–0
87% 6%
0.21
Jan 03 Minuteman Sparks - ONeil @ Bay State Waves 2018 UG 2–3
69% 15%
2.75 UPSET
Jan 03 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black @ Team Merrimack West 7–3
93% 3%
0.10
Jan 04 Bay State Waves 2018 UG @ Northers Twisters - Dulong 5–0
90% 4%
0.16
Jan 04 Young Guns @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black 1–2
12% 80%
0.32
Jan 04 Team Merrimack West @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 5–3
11% 80%
3.16 UPSET
Jan 04 Boch Blazers @ Minuteman Sparks - ONeil 1–11
0% 100%
0.00
Jan 04 New England Jr Dogs - Spencer @ Little Stars - Gorman 2–2
38% 46%
2.62
Jan 10 New England Jr Dogs - Spencer @ Minuteman Sparks - ONeil 4–1
16% 73%
2.69 UPSET
Jan 10 Northers Twisters - Dulong @ Boch Blazers 6–5
50% 36%
1.00
Jan 10 Team Merrimack West @ Young Guns 2–7
9% 86%
0.23
Jan 10 Bay State Waves 2018 UG @ Little Stars - Gorman 2–1
31% 47%
1.68
Jan 11 Little Stars - Gorman @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black 7–0
35% 46%
1.53
Jan 11 Boch Blazers @ Bay State Waves 2018 UG 0–6
2% 94%
0.08
Jan 11 Northers Twisters - Dulong @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 2–7
6% 88%
0.19
Jan 11 Young Guns @ New England Jr Dogs - Spencer 1–5
12% 81%
0.30
Jan 11 Minuteman Sparks - ONeil @ Team Merrimack West 9–0
99% 0%
0.02
Jan 11 Team Merrimack West @ New England Jr Dogs - Spencer 2–10
2% 96%
0.06
Jan 24 New England Jr Dogs - Spencer @ Boch Blazers 9–0
99% 0%
0.02
Jan 24 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Northers Twisters - Dulong 4–2
85% 8%
0.23
Jan 24 Minuteman Sparks - ONeil @ Little Stars - Gorman 2–2
62% 23%
2.69 UPSET
Jan 24 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black @ Northers Twisters - Dulong 5–1
96% 2%
0.07
Jan 25 New England Jr Dogs - Spencer @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black 2–1
44% 39%
1.20
Jan 25 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Little Stars - Gorman 1–6
15% 71%
0.49
Jan 25 Bay State Waves 2018 UG @ Young Guns 5–6
62% 24%
2.07
Jan 31 New England Jr Dogs - Spencer @ Team Merrimack West 10–3
95% 2%
0.07
Jan 31 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black @ Boch Blazers 4–1
97% 1%
0.05
Jan 31 Northers Twisters - Dulong @ Bay State Waves 2018 UG 0–2
3% 92%
0.11
Jan 31 Young Guns @ Minuteman Sparks - ONeil 0–10
3% 95%
0.08
Feb 01 Boch Blazers @ Young Guns 1–8
2% 97%
0.05
Feb 01 Bay State Waves 2018 UG @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black 1–2
32% 44%
1.17
Feb 01 Minuteman Sparks - ONeil @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 3–0
87% 6%
0.20
Feb 01 Northers Twisters - Dulong @ New England Jr Dogs - Spencer 1–8
0% 99%
0.02
Feb 01 Little Stars - Gorman @ Team Merrimack West 6–0
94% 3%
0.09
Feb 04 Little Stars - Gorman @ Minuteman Sparks - ONeil 1–4
19% 66%
0.61
Feb 07 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black @ Minuteman Sparks - ONeil 1–2
15% 71%
0.50
Feb 07 Team Merrimack West @ Boch Blazers 6–5
71% 19%
0.50
Feb 07 Young Guns @ Bay State Waves 2018 UG 5–1
21% 65%
2.23
Feb 07 Northers Twisters - Dulong @ Little Stars - Gorman 0–8
1% 98%
0.03
Feb 08 Northers Twisters - Dulong @ Young Guns 4–6
3% 95%
0.08
Feb 08 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 2–1
62% 21%
0.68
Feb 08 Bay State Waves 2018 UG @ New England Jr Dogs - Spencer 1–4
25% 56%
0.84
Feb 08 Team Merrimack West @ Minuteman Sparks - ONeil 0–8
0% 100%
0.01
Feb 14 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black @ Boch Blazers 3–2
96% 1%
0.05
Feb 14 New England Jr Dogs - Spencer @ Young Guns 11–1
80% 12%
0.32
Feb 14 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Bay State Waves 2018 UG 0–3
25% 54%
0.88
Feb 15 Northers Twisters - Dulong @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black 1–11
2% 96%
0.07
Feb 15 Minuteman Sparks - ONeil @ Young Guns 5–1
95% 2%
0.08
Feb 15 New England Jr Dogs - Spencer @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 4–1
74% 14%
0.42
Feb 21 Team Merrimack West @ Northers Twisters - Dulong 12–3
60% 28%
0.74
Feb 21 Minuteman Sparks - ONeil @ Boch Blazers 9–1
100% 0%
0.00
Feb 21 New England Jr Dogs - Spencer @ Bay State Waves 2018 UG 4–0
54% 26%
0.89
Feb 21 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Young Guns 5–2
39% 47%
1.34
Feb 21 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black @ Little Stars - Gorman 2–6
32% 48%
1.08
Feb 22 Boch Blazers @ Northers Twisters - Dulong 5–9
33% 53%
0.91
Feb 22 Team Merrimack West @ Young Guns 9–6
11% 83%
3.23 UPSET
Feb 22 Bay State Waves 2018 UG @ Minuteman Sparks - ONeil 0–5
11% 75%
0.42
Feb 22 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 4–1
60% 22%
0.73
Feb 22 Little Stars - Gorman @ New England Jr Dogs - Spencer 0–1
36% 47%
1.09