TOURNAMENT
ELIMINATION
Semifinal 1
· Feb 28, 2026
Minuteman Flames
vs
Top Gun
Minuteman Flames
vs
Top Gun
Pre-game Probabilities
Elimination game — ties go to overtime. Draw probability has been redistributed.
Minuteman Flames
17.3%
Top Gun
82.7%
Minuteman Flames
17.3%
Top Gun
82.7%
17.3%
82.7%
Favored
Underdog
Expected Goals — Minuteman Flames
2.73
Expected Goals — Top Gun
5.0
Score Probability Matrix
Probability of each scoreline — rows = Minuteman Flames, columns = Top Gun.
Scores of 0–7 cover 100.0% of outcomes.