Upset Index

Games sorted by how surprising the result was, based on pre-game Dixon-Coles probabilities.

All Upsets only Low confidence
# Date Matchup Result Pre-game odds Surprisal (bits)
1 Nov 22, 2025 Minuteman Flames @ Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan 1–2
90.4%
3.6%
4.81 UPSET
2 Sep 27, 2025 Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB @ Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan 3–1
4.3%
91.8% ⚠
4.54 UPSET
3 Feb 21, 2026 Boston Jr Eagles @ Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan 3–3
92.4%
2.4%
4.26 UPSET
4 Jan 25, 2026 Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan @ Islanders Hockey Club 2–1
5.3%
87.0%
4.24 UPSET
5 Nov 22, 2025 Islanders Hockey Club @ South Shore Kings 3–4
85.9%
6.0%
4.07 UPSET
6 Feb 22, 2026 Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Terriers 2–2
89.5%
4.3%
4.01 UPSET
7 Jan 03, 2026 Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan @ Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB 3–5
83.2%
6.3%
4.00 UPSET
8 Feb 21, 2026 South Shore Kings @ Islanders Hockey Club 4–2
6.9%
85.0%
3.87 UPSET
9 Feb 21, 2026 South Shore Kings @ Islanders Hockey Club 4–1
6.9%
85.0%
3.87 UPSET
10 Oct 04, 2025 Islanders Hockey Club @ Top Gun 2–1
11.5%
67.8%
3.12 UPSET
11 Sep 28, 2025 Islanders Hockey Club @ Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan 2–2
82.2%
5.1%
2.98 UPSET
12 Feb 22, 2026 Top Gun @ Islanders Hockey Club 2–2
75.9%
10.9%
2.93 UPSET
13 Jan 11, 2026 South Shore Kings @ Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan 2–2
54.8%
29.6%
2.68 UPSET
14 Feb 20, 2026 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Terriers 4–4
51.8%
32.3%
2.65 UPSET
15 Dec 13, 2025 Top Gun @ Minuteman Flames 2–5
62.9%
17.3%
2.53 UPSET
16 Nov 01, 2025 Boston Jr Terriers @ Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan 4–4
51.4%
30.3%
2.45
17 Oct 19, 2025 Boston Jr Eagles @ Seacoast Spartans 3–4
58.1%
18.9%
2.40
18 Jan 03, 2026 Islanders Hockey Club @ Top Gun 3–3
15.7%
64.5%
2.34
19 Nov 15, 2025 Boston Jr Eagles @ Minuteman Flames 2–3
56.6%
20.7%
2.27
20 Dec 28, 2025 Top Gun @ Minuteman Flames 1–1
55.3%
22.5%
2.17
21 Oct 18, 2025 Islanders Hockey Club @ Minuteman Flames 2–2
25.6%
49.5%
2.01
22 Dec 14, 2025 Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Eagles 1–1
26.8%
48.1%
1.99
23 Dec 14, 2025 Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Eagles 1–1
26.8%
48.1%
1.99
24 Dec 07, 2025 Seacoast Spartans @ Minuteman Flames 3–5
54.5%
27.4%
1.87
25 Jan 04, 2026 Boston Jr Eagles @ Minuteman Flames 2–2
43.5%
28.3%
1.83
26 Nov 08, 2025 Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan @ South Shore Kings 3–2
30.5%
54.3%
1.71
27 Jan 11, 2026 Islanders Hockey Club @ Minuteman Flames 4–3
31.9%
44.7%
1.65
28 Sep 27, 2025 Minuteman Flames @ Islanders Hockey Club 4–1
33.6%
29.9% ⚠
1.57
29 Dec 27, 2025 Boston Jr Terriers @ South Shore Kings 8–2
34.0%
49.4%
1.56
30 Sep 28, 2025 Minuteman Flames @ Seacoast Spartans 1–3
48.2%
34.7%
1.53
31 Feb 14, 2026 Minuteman Flames @ Islanders Hockey Club 0–4
42.6%
36.8%
1.44
32 Jan 31, 2026 Boston Jr Terriers @ Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan 4–1
38.8%
43.3%
1.37
33 Dec 06, 2025 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Eagles 4–1
39.1%
31.9%
1.36
34 Feb 15, 2026 Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan @ Boston Jr Terriers 4–2
39.4%
42.8%
1.34
35 Jan 24, 2026 Islanders Hockey Club @ Minuteman Flames 0–1
36.5%
41.3%
1.28
36 Feb 01, 2026 Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan @ Boston Jr Terriers 2–3
39.8%
42.1%
1.25
37 Oct 19, 2025 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Terriers 4–2
43.6%
40.2%
1.20
38 Dec 28, 2025 Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan @ South Shore Kings 2–4
38.3%
44.9%
1.16
39 Jan 11, 2026 Boston Jr Eagles @ Top Gun 3–4
26.5%
45.6%
1.13
40 Oct 18, 2025 Boston Jr Eagles @ Top Gun 2–1
47.4%
25.5%
1.08
41 Dec 27, 2025 Boston Jr Terriers @ South Shore Kings 2–7
34.0%
49.4%
1.02
42 Dec 20, 2025 Islanders Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Eagles 2–5
21.1%
50.9%
0.97
43 Nov 08, 2025 Seacoast Spartans @ Islanders Hockey Club 5–3
51.6%
25.1%
0.95
44 Feb 08, 2026 Boston Jr Eagles @ Islanders Hockey Club 1–0
53.7%
23.4%
0.90
45 Oct 12, 2025 Islanders Hockey Club @ Seacoast Spartans 0–2
23.6%
55.3%
0.86
46 Feb 22, 2026 South Shore Kings @ Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan 5–4
55.5%
28.9%
0.85
47 Jan 24, 2026 Seacoast Spartans @ Top Gun 1–4
24.3%
58.0%
0.79
48 Oct 10, 2025 Islanders Hockey Club @ Seacoast Spartans 3–4
19.4%
59.2%
0.76
49 Nov 09, 2025 Islanders Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Eagles 1–2
15.3%
59.4%
0.75
50 Jan 17, 2026 Minuteman Flames @ Top Gun 3–8
20.2%
60.1%
0.73
51 Jan 17, 2026 Minuteman Flames @ Top Gun 0–3
20.2%
60.1%
0.73
52 Feb 06, 2026 Top Gun @ Seacoast Spartans 5–3
62.1%
21.9%
0.69
53 Feb 21, 2026 Seacoast Spartans @ Top Gun 1–3
19.6%
65.8%
0.60
54 Sep 28, 2025 Boston Jr Terriers @ Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB 6–3
71.8%
12.1%
0.48
55 Nov 29, 2025 Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan @ Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB 4–0
78.1%
9.5%
0.36
56 Jan 24, 2026 Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB @ Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan 1–8
8.9%
78.8%
0.34
57 Oct 11, 2025 Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan @ Islanders Hockey Club 2–6
6.4%
79.1%
0.34
58 Dec 21, 2025 Islanders Hockey Club @ Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan 7–4
79.6%
7.7%
0.33
59 Jan 11, 2026 Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB @ Boston Jr Terriers 1–6
8.5%
80.0%
0.32
60 Nov 23, 2025 Islanders Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Terriers 4–0
80.8%
7.9%
0.31
61 Nov 30, 2025 Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB @ Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan 1–4
7.3%
80.9%
0.31
62 Dec 07, 2025 Boston Jr Terriers @ Islanders Hockey Club 0–7
7.7%
81.1%
0.30
63 Dec 06, 2025 Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB @ Boston Jr Terriers 1–6
7.9%
81.4%
0.30
64 Nov 23, 2025 South Shore Kings @ Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB 6–0
81.6%
9.9%
0.29
65 Dec 20, 2025 Boston Jr Terriers @ Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB 2–0
82.3%
7.9%
0.28
66 Sep 20, 2025 Seacoast Spartans @ Minuteman Flames 4–5
17.1%
82.9% ⚠
0.27
67 Nov 15, 2025 Boston Jr Terriers @ Islanders Hockey Club 2–6
6.2%
83.5%
0.26
68 Dec 27, 2025 Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan @ Minuteman Flames 1–8
5.4%
85.7%
0.22
69 Jan 04, 2026 Islanders Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Terriers 6–0
85.9%
5.6%
0.22
70 Dec 06, 2025 South Shore Kings @ Minuteman Flames 0–3
6.2%
86.9%
0.20
71 Feb 07, 2026 South Shore Kings @ Minuteman Flames 1–3
5.9%
87.2%
0.20
72 Oct 05, 2025 Boston Jr Terriers @ Seacoast Spartans 1–7
4.5%
88.9%
0.17
73 Dec 13, 2025 Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB @ South Shore Kings 3–5
4.2%
89.6%
0.16
74 Jan 31, 2026 Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB @ South Shore Kings 2–6
4.6%
89.6%
0.16
75 Feb 08, 2026 South Shore Kings @ Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB 3–2
89.8%
4.5%
0.16
76 Feb 08, 2026 Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan @ Minuteman Flames 1–2
3.8%
90.1%
0.15
77 Jan 24, 2026 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Eagles 0–3
3.3%
90.5%
0.14
78 Jan 10, 2026 Minuteman Flames @ South Shore Kings 6–2
90.7%
3.8%
0.14
79 Jan 10, 2026 Minuteman Flames @ South Shore Kings 4–3
90.7%
3.8%
0.14
80 Dec 21, 2025 Boston Jr Terriers @ Minuteman Flames 2–4
2.9%
91.8%
0.12
81 Jan 25, 2026 Boston Jr Eagles @ Boston Jr Terriers 5–1
92.1%
2.4%
0.12
82 Nov 16, 2025 Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Terriers 5–2
92.2%
3.1%
0.12
83 Feb 21, 2026 Boston Jr Eagles @ Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan 7–0
92.4%
2.4%
0.11
84 Oct 18, 2025 Seacoast Spartans @ Boston Jr Terriers 9–2
92.4%
2.7%
0.11
85 Dec 28, 2025 Boston Jr Eagles @ Boston Jr Terriers 3–0
92.8%
2.1%
0.11
86 Dec 21, 2025 Boston Jr Eagles @ South Shore Kings 6–2
92.8%
2.3%
0.11
87 Oct 04, 2025 Seacoast Spartans @ Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan 9–1
93.3%
2.4%
0.10
88 Oct 12, 2025 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Eagles 0–9
2.0%
93.4%
0.10
89 Oct 19, 2025 Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB @ Islanders Hockey Club 0–8
1.9%
93.7%
0.09
90 Jan 25, 2026 Seacoast Spartans @ South Shore Kings 5–2
93.8%
2.7%
0.09
91 Nov 16, 2025 Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan @ Boston Jr Eagles 1–4
1.5%
94.1%
0.09
92 Nov 16, 2025 Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan @ Boston Jr Eagles 1–4
1.5%
94.1%
0.09
93 Feb 13, 2026 Seacoast Spartans @ Boston Jr Terriers 7–1
94.8%
2.1%
0.08
94 Sep 28, 2025 Top Gun @ South Shore Kings 8–1
94.9%
2.5%
0.08
95 Sep 28, 2025 Top Gun @ South Shore Kings 7–1
94.9%
2.5%
0.08
96 Feb 14, 2026 Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan @ Seacoast Spartans 1–8
2.0%
94.9%
0.07
97 Nov 08, 2025 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Terriers 6–1
95.1%
1.6%
0.07
98 Nov 08, 2025 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Terriers 6–0
95.1%
1.6%
0.07
99 Jan 03, 2026 Boston Jr Terriers @ Seacoast Spartans 0–6
1.9%
95.2%
0.07
100 Nov 16, 2025 South Shore Kings @ Seacoast Spartans 3–12
1.7%
95.7%
0.06
101 Jan 04, 2026 Top Gun @ Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan 11–0
96.2%
1.0%
0.06
102 Jan 04, 2026 Top Gun @ Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan 4–2
96.2%
1.0%
0.06
103 Dec 20, 2025 South Shore Kings @ Top Gun 0–5
1.3%
96.2%
0.06
104 Nov 01, 2025 South Shore Kings @ Top Gun 2–6
1.3%
96.3%
0.05
105 Oct 25, 2025 Boston Jr Terriers @ Boston Jr Eagles 3–4
0.8%
96.5%
0.05
106 Oct 25, 2025 Boston Jr Terriers @ Boston Jr Eagles 0–5
0.8%
96.5%
0.05
107 Nov 09, 2025 Seacoast Spartans @ Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan 4–1
96.5%
1.2%
0.05
108 Dec 14, 2025 Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB @ Islanders Hockey Club 1–10
0.5%
97.6%
0.04
109 Oct 11, 2025 South Shore Kings @ Seacoast Spartans 2–8
1.0%
97.7%
0.03
110 Oct 11, 2025 Seacoast Spartans @ South Shore Kings 3–1
97.7%
1.0%
0.03
111 Feb 07, 2026 Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan @ Top Gun 0–10
0.6%
97.8%
0.03
112 Feb 08, 2026 Boston Jr Terriers @ Top Gun 0–7
0.6%
98.0%
0.03
113 Feb 08, 2026 Boston Jr Terriers @ Top Gun 0–9
0.6%
98.0%
0.03
114 Nov 15, 2025 Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers @ Top Gun 8–1
98.4%
0.4%
0.02
115 Nov 15, 2025 Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers @ Top Gun 4–3
98.4%
0.4%
0.02
116 Feb 07, 2026 Islanders Hockey Club @ Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB 9–1
98.5%
0.4%
0.02
117 Nov 22, 2025 Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB @ Boston Jr Eagles 1–8
0.2%
98.9%
0.02
118 Feb 21, 2026 Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB @ Minuteman Flames 0–12
0.3%
98.9%
0.02
119 Feb 15, 2026 Minuteman Flames @ Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB 6–0
98.9%
0.3%
0.02
120 Oct 11, 2025 Boston Jr Eagles @ Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB 7–0
99.0%
0.3%
0.01
121 Nov 16, 2025 Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers @ Islanders Hockey Club 9–0
99.3%
0.2%
0.01
122 Nov 16, 2025 Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers @ Islanders Hockey Club 8–0
99.3%
0.2%
0.01
123 Jan 25, 2026 Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB @ Minuteman Flames 3–9
0.2%
99.3%
0.01
124 Dec 28, 2025 Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB @ Boston Jr Eagles 1–5
0.1%
99.4%
0.01
125 Jan 04, 2026 Seacoast Spartans @ Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB 8–0
99.8%
0.1%
0.00
126 Dec 27, 2025 Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB @ Top Gun 0–11
0.0%
99.8%
0.00
127 Dec 27, 2025 Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB @ Top Gun 0–9
0.0%
99.8%
0.00
128 Nov 01, 2025 Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB @ Seacoast Spartans 0–8
0.1%
99.8%
0.00
129 Nov 01, 2025 Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB @ Seacoast Spartans 2–7
0.1%
99.8%
0.00
130 Jan 10, 2026 Top Gun @ Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB 13–1
99.8%
0.0%
0.00
131 Jan 10, 2026 Top Gun @ Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB 11–0
99.8%
0.0%
0.00
132 Feb 15, 2026 Seacoast Spartans @ Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB 9–0
99.8%
0.0%
0.00