Upset Index

Games sorted by how surprising the result was, based on pre-game Dixon-Coles probabilities.

All Upsets only Low confidence
# Date Matchup Result Pre-game odds Surprisal (bits)
1 Dec 07, 2025 Minuteman Flames @ Top Gun 4–3
3.1%
91.3%
5.02 UPSET
2 Sep 28, 2025 South Shore Kings @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 3–3
1.7%
94.6%
4.76 UPSET
3 Dec 20, 2025 Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Eagles 4–1
4.8%
88.7%
4.37 UPSET
4 Dec 06, 2025 Boston Jr Eagles @ Minuteman Flames 1–1
90.9%
4.1%
4.32 UPSET
5 Sep 27, 2025 Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall @ South Shore Kings 2–2
89.0%
5.5%
4.18 UPSET
6 Oct 04, 2025 Minuteman Flames @ South Shore Kings 2–4
85.1%
6.0%
4.06 UPSET
7 Dec 27, 2025 Boston Jr Eagles @ Seacoast Spartans 0–6
75.7%
12.3%
3.02 UPSET
8 Nov 15, 2025 Top Gun @ Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall 4–4
74.0%
13.1%
2.95 UPSET
9 Nov 22, 2025 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Top Gun 2–2
14.1%
72.7%
2.92 UPSET
10 Jan 03, 2026 Cyclones Academy @ Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall 5–5
68.3%
17.8%
2.84 UPSET
11 Oct 04, 2025 Cyclones Academy @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 1–4
64.1%
14.0%
2.83 UPSET
12 Oct 11, 2025 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Islanders Hockey Club (West) 1–4
73.3%
15.1%
2.73 UPSET
13 Oct 11, 2025 Seacoast Spartans @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 1–1
30.6%
53.6%
2.67 UPSET
14 Sep 28, 2025 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Seacoast Spartans 3–5
62.5%
16.1%
2.63 UPSET
15 Feb 14, 2026 Cyclones Academy @ Seacoast Spartans 2–2
59.5%
24.1%
2.61 UPSET
16 Nov 01, 2025 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 2–2
35.3%
48.2%
2.60
17 Jan 04, 2026 Islanders Hockey Club (West) @ Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall 3–3
25.5%
57.8%
2.58 UPSET
18 Jan 31, 2026 Islanders Hockey Club (West) @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 3–3
19.8%
63.4%
2.58 UPSET
19 Jan 03, 2026 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Boston Jr Eagles 1–1
25.7%
57.5%
2.57 UPSET
20 Nov 22, 2025 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall 3–3
53.6%
29.5%
2.56 UPSET
21 Oct 26, 2025 Cyclones Academy @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 3–3
54.2%
28.6%
2.55 UPSET
22 Dec 28, 2025 Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 4–2
17.3%
66.3%
2.53 UPSET
23 Nov 15, 2025 Islanders Hockey Club (West) @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 5–3
18.2%
67.6%
2.46
24 Sep 28, 2025 Minuteman Flames @ Cyclones Academy 2–2
14.7%
67.0%
2.45
25 Jan 03, 2026 Seacoast Spartans @ Minuteman Flames 4–4
56.6%
25.0%
2.45
26 Dec 20, 2025 Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall @ Seacoast Spartans 5–5
44.1%
37.3%
2.43
27 Feb 07, 2026 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Cyclones Academy 1–1
30.2%
50.8%
2.40
28 Dec 21, 2025 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 3–3
45.8%
35.0%
2.39
29 Dec 21, 2025 Minuteman Flames @ Islanders Hockey Club (West) 1–1
36.5%
44.0%
2.36
30 Jan 10, 2026 Seacoast Spartans @ Boston Jr Eagles 4–3
19.6%
64.4%
2.35
31 Nov 30, 2025 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Islanders Hockey Club (West) 2–3
65.7%
19.7%
2.35
32 Oct 19, 2025 South Shore Kings @ Minuteman Flames 4–0
19.9%
66.1%
2.33
33 Jan 25, 2026 Seacoast Spartans @ Cyclones Academy 4–2
19.9%
65.4%
2.33
34 Jan 04, 2026 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Cyclones Academy 3–1
21.1%
61.8%
2.24
35 Oct 12, 2025 Cyclones Academy @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 3–4
57.6%
21.5%
2.22
36 Oct 18, 2025 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall 2–5
62.3%
22.2%
2.17
37 Oct 25, 2025 Cyclones Academy @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 1–3
60.4%
23.4%
2.09
38 Jan 04, 2026 Boston Jr Eagles @ Top Gun 2–1
24.6%
56.9%
2.03
39 Feb 01, 2026 Boston Jr Eagles @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 2–4
56.8%
24.8%
2.01
40 Dec 13, 2025 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Islanders Hockey Club (West) 1–3
56.5%
25.5%
1.97
41 Dec 28, 2025 Cyclones Academy @ Top Gun 4–3
25.6%
55.8%
1.97
42 Oct 18, 2025 South Shore Kings @ Islanders Hockey Club (West) 3–2
26.1%
58.0%
1.94
43 Oct 26, 2025 Islanders Hockey Club (West) @ Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall 4–2
27.0%
57.3%
1.89
44 Feb 22, 2026 Boston Jr Eagles @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 3–4
52.1%
27.9%
1.84
45 Dec 07, 2025 Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall @ Seacoast Spartans 2–6
53.9%
28.3%
1.82
46 Nov 15, 2025 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Seacoast Spartans 0–3
55.2%
28.3%
1.82
47 Feb 22, 2026 Minuteman Flames @ Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall 6–4
28.9%
54.5%
1.79
48 Feb 01, 2026 Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall @ Minuteman Flames 2–5
54.4%
29.0%
1.78
49 Feb 13, 2026 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Seacoast Spartans 1–2
50.8%
30.7%
1.70
50 Feb 22, 2026 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Cyclones Academy 4–1
32.3%
47.3%
1.63
51 Sep 27, 2025 Top Gun @ Cyclones Academy 1–1
46.4%
20.8%
1.61
52 Nov 15, 2025 Boston Jr Eagles @ Cyclones Academy 4–6
49.1%
33.3%
1.59
53 Jan 04, 2026 Seacoast Spartans @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 2–1
33.3%
47.5%
1.58
54 Nov 23, 2025 Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 3–2
34.7%
48.1%
1.53
55 Feb 14, 2026 Minuteman Flames @ Islanders Hockey Club (West) 1–3
46.8%
35.1%
1.51
56 Feb 14, 2026 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 1–2
39.0%
38.7%
1.37
57 Nov 16, 2025 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall 4–0
40.2%
42.9%
1.31
58 Jan 11, 2026 Islanders Hockey Club (West) @ Minuteman Flames 3–4
37.1%
42.9%
1.22
59 Feb 21, 2026 Cyclones Academy @ Boston Jr Eagles 1–2
36.5%
44.3%
1.17
60 Oct 04, 2025 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Boston Jr Eagles 0–1
37.7%
44.4%
1.17
61 Sep 21, 2025 Boston Jr Eagles @ Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall 6–4
44.7%
38.3% ⚠
1.16
62 Oct 19, 2025 Seacoast Spartans @ Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall 1–3
37.8%
46.6%
1.10
63 Nov 02, 2025 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 6–1
47.3%
35.8%
1.08
64 Nov 30, 2025 Boston Jr Eagles @ Cyclones Academy 5–4
48.0%
35.2%
1.06
65 Feb 08, 2026 Seacoast Spartans @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 1–4
33.1%
48.1%
1.06
66 Nov 02, 2025 Seacoast Spartans @ Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall 1–2
35.1%
48.5%
1.04
67 Nov 09, 2025 Boston Jr Eagles @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 2–0
48.7%
34.6%
1.04
68 Jan 10, 2026 Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 1–5
32.7%
49.0%
1.03
69 Jan 24, 2026 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Seacoast Spartans 3–1
50.0%
31.2%
1.00
70 Dec 27, 2025 Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall @ Islanders Hockey Club (West) 6–3
50.3%
31.7%
0.99
71 Oct 25, 2025 Minuteman Flames @ Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall 2–4
31.5%
52.2%
0.94
72 Jan 31, 2026 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Boston Jr Eagles 2–5
27.4%
52.6%
0.93
73 Feb 21, 2026 Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall @ Islanders Hockey Club (West) 5–1
53.9%
29.1%
0.89
74 Feb 08, 2026 Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 2–3
27.3%
54.0%
0.89
75 Feb 07, 2026 Seacoast Spartans @ Minuteman Flames 5–2
54.2%
29.0%
0.88
76 Sep 27, 2025 Seacoast Spartans @ Boston Jr Eagles 0–4
31.1%
54.9%
0.86
77 Oct 04, 2025 Islanders Hockey Club (West) @ Seacoast Spartans 2–3
26.6%
55.3%
0.86
78 Oct 19, 2025 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Boston Jr Eagles 4–6
26.3%
55.6%
0.85
79 Oct 18, 2025 Boston Jr Eagles @ Minuteman Flames 3–1
55.7%
29.0%
0.85
80 Feb 15, 2026 Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 0–5
26.5%
55.7%
0.84
81 Dec 28, 2025 Seacoast Spartans @ Islanders Hockey Club (West) 4–1
56.0%
26.5%
0.84
82 Jan 17, 2026 Islanders Hockey Club (West) @ Seacoast Spartans 2–3
25.6%
57.3%
0.80
83 Feb 15, 2026 Minuteman Flames @ Seacoast Spartans 1–4
25.3%
58.1%
0.78
84 Nov 01, 2025 Seacoast Spartans @ South Shore Kings 3–1
58.4%
26.3%
0.78
85 Nov 09, 2025 Minuteman Flames @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 0–4
26.0%
58.4%
0.78
86 Oct 25, 2025 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ South Shore Kings 7–2
58.6%
25.9%
0.77
87 Jan 24, 2026 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Islanders Hockey Club (West) 7–3
59.5%
21.7%
0.75
88 Feb 07, 2026 Seacoast Spartans @ Islanders Hockey Club (West) 4–2
61.0%
23.1%
0.71
89 Jan 25, 2026 Boston Jr Eagles @ Top Gun 1–2
21.2%
61.3%
0.70
90 Sep 21, 2025 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Cyclones Academy 0–2
22.6%
61.6% ⚠
0.70
91 Feb 07, 2026 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Minuteman Flames 3–1
62.0%
21.6%
0.69
92 Jan 24, 2026 Top Gun @ Cyclones Academy 5–2
62.3%
21.0%
0.68
93 Nov 01, 2025 Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall @ Boston Jr Eagles 2–3
23.3%
62.6%
0.68
94 Feb 21, 2026 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Minuteman Flames 7–0
62.7%
20.0%
0.67
95 Feb 08, 2026 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Eagles 5–1
62.8%
19.8%
0.67
96 Nov 08, 2025 Islanders Hockey Club (West) @ Boston Jr Eagles 2–9
21.7%
63.2%
0.66
97 Jan 31, 2026 Islanders Hockey Club (West) @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 1–6
19.8%
63.4%
0.66
98 Dec 21, 2025 Seacoast Spartans @ Cyclones Academy 1–4
18.9%
66.2%
0.60
99 Oct 12, 2025 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 5–2
66.4%
14.2%
0.59
100 Feb 21, 2026 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Minuteman Flames 4–2
66.6%
17.5%
0.59
101 Oct 05, 2025 Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall @ Cyclones Academy 0–5
20.1%
66.8%
0.58
102 Dec 20, 2025 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Top Gun 2–3
16.9%
67.7%
0.56
103 Jan 03, 2026 South Shore Kings @ Islanders Hockey Club (West) 0–4
17.8%
67.7%
0.56
104 Nov 16, 2025 Boston Jr Eagles @ Seacoast Spartans 6–1
67.7%
18.4%
0.56
105 Nov 30, 2025 Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall @ Minuteman Flames 5–1
67.8%
18.4%
0.56
106 Jan 03, 2026 Cyclones Academy @ Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall 3–1
68.3%
17.8%
0.55
107 Feb 07, 2026 Boston Jr Eagles @ Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall 4–1
69.1%
17.1%
0.53
108 Nov 01, 2025 Cyclones Academy @ Minuteman Flames 3–2
69.7%
16.3%
0.52
109 Nov 29, 2025 Islanders Hockey Club (West) @ Cyclones Academy 1–5
16.8%
70.1%
0.51
110 Nov 29, 2025 Islanders Hockey Club (West) @ Cyclones Academy 0–2
16.8%
70.1%
0.51
111 Dec 13, 2025 Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall @ Boston Jr Eagles 0–4
16.9%
70.5%
0.50
112 Oct 26, 2025 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 0–5
16.8%
71.0%
0.49
113 Jan 04, 2026 South Shore Kings @ Minuteman Flames 1–7
14.4%
71.4%
0.49
114 Jan 03, 2026 Top Gun @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 4–0
72.4%
13.5%
0.47
115 Nov 29, 2025 Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 2–6
14.2%
72.8%
0.46
116 Nov 08, 2025 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Minuteman Flames 2–1
73.3%
14.7%
0.45
117 Jan 10, 2026 Cyclones Academy @ Minuteman Flames 6–2
73.4%
13.2%
0.45
118 Feb 01, 2026 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 2–1
74.4%
11.7%
0.43
119 Sep 27, 2025 Islanders Hockey Club (West) @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 1–3
12.4%
74.4%
0.43
120 Feb 15, 2026 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Top Gun 0–7
10.7%
74.9%
0.42
121 Jan 11, 2026 Minuteman Flames @ Cyclones Academy 3–6
12.1%
75.4%
0.41
122 Dec 20, 2025 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ South Shore Kings 8–2
76.5%
11.8%
0.39
123 Feb 21, 2026 Top Gun @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 4–0
76.6%
10.1%
0.38
124 Oct 18, 2025 Top Gun @ Seacoast Spartans 6–4
76.8%
9.4%
0.38
125 Feb 15, 2026 Cyclones Academy @ Islanders Hockey Club (West) 3–0
76.8%
11.4%
0.38
126 Jan 11, 2026 Seacoast Spartans @ Top Gun 2–11
10.6%
76.9%
0.38
127 Nov 23, 2025 Boston Jr Eagles @ Islanders Hockey Club (West) 6–1
77.0%
12.6%
0.38
128 Nov 01, 2025 Top Gun @ Islanders Hockey Club (West) 2–1
78.0%
10.2%
0.36
129 Oct 04, 2025 Top Gun @ Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall 2–1
78.8%
4.4%
0.34
130 Feb 03, 2026 Cyclones Academy @ Islanders Hockey Club (West) 5–2
78.8%
10.4%
0.34
131 Dec 06, 2025 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ South Shore Kings 6–2
79.0%
10.9%
0.34
132 Nov 23, 2025 Seacoast Spartans @ Top Gun 1–7
9.8%
79.0%
0.34
133 Dec 21, 2025 Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall @ Top Gun 1–6
9.7%
79.6%
0.33
134 Nov 02, 2025 Top Gun @ Minuteman Flames 6–2
79.9%
9.0%
0.32
135 Feb 01, 2026 Islanders Hockey Club (West) @ Boston Jr Eagles 2–6
8.9%
80.5%
0.31
136 Dec 14, 2025 Islanders Hockey Club (West) @ Top Gun 1–7
8.4%
80.9%
0.31
137 Oct 05, 2025 Islanders Hockey Club (West) @ Top Gun 1–3
8.5%
81.2%
0.30
138 Dec 28, 2025 Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall @ South Shore Kings 6–0
81.3%
9.6%
0.30
139 Nov 16, 2025 Top Gun @ Minuteman Flames 9–0
82.9%
7.6%
0.27
140 Nov 16, 2025 Cyclones Academy @ South Shore Kings 5–3
84.5%
7.4%
0.24
141 Jan 31, 2026 South Shore Kings @ Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall 1–6
5.9%
86.8%
0.20
142 Jan 11, 2026 South Shore Kings @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 0–4
4.9%
87.6%
0.19
143 Feb 14, 2026 Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall @ Top Gun 0–6
5.0%
88.0%
0.18
144 Feb 01, 2026 Seacoast Spartans @ South Shore Kings 5–2
88.3%
4.9%
0.18
145 Dec 20, 2025 Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Eagles 1–2
4.8%
88.7%
0.17
146 Jan 31, 2026 Minuteman Flames @ Top Gun 2–9
4.1%
89.1%
0.17
147 Feb 22, 2026 South Shore Kings @ Seacoast Spartans 1–5
4.4%
89.2%
0.16
148 Dec 27, 2025 South Shore Kings @ Cyclones Academy 0–9
3.6%
91.2%
0.13
149 Dec 14, 2025 Boston Jr Eagles @ South Shore Kings 11–1
92.3%
3.2%
0.12
150 Dec 13, 2025 Top Gun @ South Shore Kings 5–0
92.9%
2.8%
0.11
151 Dec 21, 2025 Boston Jr Eagles @ South Shore Kings 5–0
94.4%
2.3%
0.08
152 Dec 21, 2025 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Eagles 1–6
2.3%
94.4%
0.08
153 Feb 22, 2026 Top Gun @ Islanders Hockey Club (West) 6–2
94.9%
1.6%
0.08
154 Jan 24, 2026 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Eagles 1–6
1.3%
95.9%
0.06
155 Feb 08, 2026 Cyclones Academy @ South Shore Kings 3–1
95.9%
1.4%
0.06
156 Sep 21, 2025 Minuteman Flames @ South Shore Kings 4–3
96.9%
0.9% ⚠
0.04
157 Jan 10, 2026 South Shore Kings @ Top Gun 0–9
0.5%
98.0%
0.03
158 Jan 10, 2026 South Shore Kings @ Top Gun 1–8
0.5%
98.0%
0.03
159 Feb 07, 2026 Top Gun @ South Shore Kings 10–0
99.0%
0.2%
0.01