Upset Index

Games sorted by how surprising the result was, based on pre-game Dixon-Coles probabilities.

All Upsets only Low confidence
# Date Matchup Result Pre-game odds Surprisal (bits)
1 Jan 04, 2026 Manchester Flames - Engvik @ IHC West - Proulx 3–3
96.4%
1.6%
5.62 UPSET
2 Nov 15, 2025 Manchester Flames - Engvik @ Shamrocks - Hamilton 2–2
96.1%
1.7%
5.51 UPSET
3 Nov 08, 2025 Minuteman Flames - Welsh @ Manchester Flames - Engvik 6–4
3.1%
93.6%
5.00 UPSET
4 Dec 20, 2025 Boch Blazers - Connors @ Minuteman Flames - Welsh 5–10
90.3%
4.7%
4.40 UPSET
5 Dec 27, 2025 Boch Blazers - Black @ IHC West - Proulx 2–2
6.9%
86.9%
4.01 UPSET
6 Dec 20, 2025 BOSTON VIPERS 2012 - PALMER @ Boch Blazers - Black 4–6
87.6%
6.8%
3.89 UPSET
7 Sep 27, 2025 Boch Blazers - Black @ Shamrocks - Hamilton 3–3
8.4%
84.8% ⚠
3.89 UPSET
8 Jan 24, 2026 Shamrocks - Hamilton @ Boch Blazers - Connors 0–0
9.8%
82.1%
3.62 UPSET
9 Feb 07, 2026 Northern Cyclones - Chiulli @ IHC West - Proulx 5–3
9.1%
80.7%
3.46 UPSET
10 Nov 02, 2025 Northeast Generals - Rollock @ BOSTON VIPERS 2012 - PALMER 3–9
83.1%
9.3%
3.43 UPSET
11 Jan 11, 2026 Northern Cyclones - Chiulli @ IHC West - Proulx 2–1
10.0%
81.8%
3.32 UPSET
12 Dec 13, 2025 Manchester Flames - Engvik @ Minuteman Flames - Welsh 7–9
81.8%
10.6%
3.24 UPSET
13 Oct 25, 2025 Shamrocks - Hamilton @ Northeast Generals - Rollock 3–3
25.2%
61.6%
2.92 UPSET
14 Nov 16, 2025 Boch Blazers - Black @ Northern Cyclones - Chiulli 7–7
23.2%
61.8%
2.74 UPSET
15 Feb 07, 2026 BOSTON VIPERS 2012 - PALMER @ Boch Blazers - Black 1–4
74.2%
15.8%
2.66 UPSET
16 Feb 08, 2026 IHC West - Proulx @ Northeast Generals - Rollock 0–0
33.2%
50.4%
2.61 UPSET
17 Feb 01, 2026 Northern Cyclones - Chiulli @ Boch Blazers - Black 1–1
38.4%
44.1%
2.51
18 Feb 07, 2026 Shamrocks - Hamilton @ Northeast Generals - Rollock 2–2
47.0%
35.4%
2.51
19 Feb 22, 2026 Boch Blazers - Black @ BOSTON VIPERS 2012 - PALMER 5–4
19.2%
69.1%
2.38
20 Feb 07, 2026 Boch Blazers - Connors @ Minuteman Flames - Welsh 2–9
63.7%
23.4%
2.09
21 Oct 05, 2025 Northeast Generals - Rollock @ Shamrocks - Hamilton 3–6
60.8%
24.9%
2.01
22 Nov 15, 2025 BOSTON VIPERS 2012 - PALMER @ Northeast Generals - Rollock 6–3
24.9%
63.1%
2.01
23 Feb 15, 2026 BOSTON VIPERS 2012 - PALMER @ IHC West - Proulx 4–1
26.4%
60.3%
1.92
24 Dec 20, 2025 Northeast Generals - Rollock @ IHC West - Proulx 1–6
55.4%
30.8%
1.70
25 Sep 27, 2025 IHC West - Proulx @ Northeast Generals - Rollock 2–5
54.3%
31.0% ⚠
1.69
26 Dec 27, 2025 Manchester Flames - Engvik @ Boch Blazers - Connors 8–2
33.6%
52.0%
1.57
27 Jan 24, 2026 Northern Cyclones - Chiulli @ Boch Blazers - Black 3–6
47.2%
37.7%
1.41
28 Dec 27, 2025 Northeast Generals - Rollock @ Shamrocks - Hamilton 1–4
38.7%
46.3%
1.11
29 Jan 17, 2026 Northeast Generals - Rollock @ Shamrocks - Hamilton 3–4
38.1%
46.9%
1.09
30 Nov 01, 2025 Northeast Generals - Rollock @ Minuteman Flames - Welsh 3–6
37.6%
48.4%
1.05
31 Jan 03, 2026 Manchester Flames - Engvik @ Boch Blazers - Connors 4–2
48.5%
37.3%
1.04
32 Oct 11, 2025 Minuteman Flames - Welsh @ Shamrocks - Hamilton 7–3
48.6%
38.7%
1.04
33 Feb 21, 2026 Northeast Generals - Rollock @ IHC West - Proulx 4–1
50.5%
32.1%
0.99
34 Nov 09, 2025 IHC West - Proulx @ Shamrocks - Hamilton 4–5
35.7%
50.5%
0.99
35 Jan 11, 2026 IHC West - Proulx @ Shamrocks - Hamilton 2–4
33.8%
51.7%
0.95
36 Dec 06, 2025 BOSTON VIPERS 2012 - PALMER @ IHC West - Proulx 3–4
34.9%
52.7%
0.92
37 Dec 13, 2025 Shamrocks - Hamilton @ IHC West - Proulx 3–1
55.4%
31.1%
0.85
38 Feb 08, 2026 Boch Blazers - Connors @ Manchester Flames - Engvik 0–3
28.8%
56.4%
0.83
39 Jan 18, 2026 IHC West - Proulx @ BOSTON VIPERS 2012 - PALMER 4–3
57.4%
29.9%
0.80
40 Feb 22, 2026 Shamrocks - Hamilton @ IHC West - Proulx 4–1
58.9%
24.8%
0.76
41 Nov 16, 2025 Boch Blazers - Black @ Northern Cyclones - Chiulli 1–3
23.2%
61.8%
0.69
42 Jan 04, 2026 Northeast Generals - Rollock @ BOSTON VIPERS 2012 - PALMER 5–2
64.0%
23.9%
0.64
43 Nov 08, 2025 BOSTON VIPERS 2012 - PALMER @ Northern Cyclones - Chiulli 7–2
64.9%
22.7%
0.62
44 Nov 02, 2025 Minuteman Flames - Welsh @ IHC West - Proulx 8–4
65.4%
23.7%
0.61
45 Oct 04, 2025 Northern Cyclones - Chiulli @ BOSTON VIPERS 2012 - PALMER 5–6
19.8%
67.2% ⚠
0.57
46 Nov 16, 2025 Shamrocks - Hamilton @ BOSTON VIPERS 2012 - PALMER 7–6
68.5%
20.7%
0.55
47 Jan 10, 2026 BOSTON VIPERS 2012 - PALMER @ Shamrocks - Hamilton 2–3
19.4%
69.6%
0.52
48 Jan 31, 2026 Northern Cyclones - Chiulli @ BOSTON VIPERS 2012 - PALMER 1–7
17.2%
71.4%
0.49
49 Nov 01, 2025 BOSTON VIPERS 2012 - PALMER @ Shamrocks - Hamilton 1–7
16.2%
74.4%
0.43
50 Dec 21, 2025 Shamrocks - Hamilton @ Minuteman Flames - Welsh 1–9
15.2%
75.3%
0.41
51 Nov 30, 2025 Shamrocks - Hamilton @ Minuteman Flames - Welsh 2–5
15.3%
75.3%
0.41
52 Dec 27, 2025 BOSTON VIPERS 2012 - PALMER @ Northern Cyclones - Chiulli 6–2
76.8%
13.8%
0.38
53 Dec 27, 2025 BOSTON VIPERS 2012 - PALMER @ Northern Cyclones - Chiulli 5–3
76.8%
13.8%
0.38
54 Nov 29, 2025 Minuteman Flames - Welsh @ Northeast Generals - Rollock 5–2
77.2%
13.6%
0.37
55 Nov 29, 2025 Minuteman Flames - Welsh @ Northeast Generals - Rollock 5–2
77.2%
13.6%
0.37
56 Dec 07, 2025 IHC West - Proulx @ Northern Cyclones - Chiulli 7–2
79.7%
11.6%
0.33
57 Dec 28, 2025 IHC West - Proulx @ Northern Cyclones - Chiulli 5–3
81.3%
10.3%
0.30
58 Dec 13, 2025 Manchester Flames - Engvik @ Minuteman Flames - Welsh 5–3
81.8%
10.6%
0.29
59 Jan 03, 2026 Northeast Generals - Rollock @ Minuteman Flames - Welsh 5–7
10.0%
82.5%
0.28
60 Nov 23, 2025 Northern Cyclones - Chiulli @ Northeast Generals - Rollock 0–2
9.3%
82.5%
0.28
61 Feb 14, 2026 Northern Cyclones - Chiulli @ Northeast Generals - Rollock 0–2
7.8%
83.0%
0.27
62 Feb 22, 2026 Boch Blazers - Connors @ Northeast Generals - Rollock 4–1
83.0%
7.8%
0.27
63 Oct 26, 2025 IHC West - Proulx @ BOSTON VIPERS 2012 - PALMER 6–5
83.5%
9.5%
0.26
64 Dec 13, 2025 Northeast Generals - Rollock @ Northern Cyclones - Chiulli 5–0
83.7%
8.8%
0.26
65 Jan 10, 2026 Northern Cyclones - Chiulli @ Northeast Generals - Rollock 3–4
8.0%
84.9%
0.24
66 Dec 14, 2025 IHC West - Proulx @ Minuteman Flames - Welsh 0–7
8.6%
85.2%
0.23
67 Feb 01, 2026 IHC West - Proulx @ Minuteman Flames - Welsh 0–4
7.8%
85.9%
0.22
68 Feb 20, 2026 Shamrocks - Hamilton @ Northern Cyclones - Chiulli 6–2
85.9%
5.9%
0.22
69 Feb 21, 2026 Shamrocks - Hamilton @ Northern Cyclones - Chiulli 8–1
86.4%
5.7%
0.21
70 Sep 28, 2025 Shamrocks - Hamilton @ Northern Cyclones - Chiulli 5–0
86.6%
6.5% ⚠
0.21
71 Oct 12, 2025 Northern Cyclones - Chiulli @ Shamrocks - Hamilton 3–4
6.6%
86.7%
0.21
72 Jan 31, 2026 Minuteman Flames - Welsh @ IHC West - Proulx 5–3
86.8%
7.3%
0.20
73 Oct 18, 2025 Northern Cyclones - Chiulli @ IHC West - Proulx 3–8
6.5%
87.0%
0.20
74 Jan 11, 2026 Boch Blazers - Black @ Northeast Generals - Rollock 1–6
6.5%
87.3%
0.20
75 Dec 07, 2025 Boch Blazers - Black @ BOSTON VIPERS 2012 - PALMER 2–4
6.4%
88.3%
0.18
76 Dec 21, 2025 Boch Blazers - Black @ Northeast Generals - Rollock 1–4
5.7%
88.8%
0.17
77 Dec 14, 2025 Northern Cyclones - Chiulli @ Shamrocks - Hamilton 0–2
5.6%
88.8%
0.17
78 Oct 11, 2025 Northeast Generals - Rollock @ Boch Blazers - Black 7–0
89.7%
5.1%
0.16
79 Nov 22, 2025 Northeast Generals - Rollock @ Boch Blazers - Black 11–0
90.2%
4.6%
0.15
80 Dec 28, 2025 Shamrocks - Hamilton @ Boch Blazers - Black 4–1
90.4%
4.7%
0.15
81 Oct 18, 2025 Shamrocks - Hamilton @ Boch Blazers - Black 5–1
90.5%
4.7%
0.14
82 Jan 10, 2026 Boch Blazers - Connors @ IHC West - Proulx 5–3
90.8%
4.5%
0.14
83 Dec 14, 2025 Manchester Flames - Engvik @ Northeast Generals - Rollock 7–6
91.8%
4.0%
0.12
84 Oct 12, 2025 Northeast Generals - Rollock @ Manchester Flames - Engvik 3–6
3.6%
91.9%
0.12
85 Oct 18, 2025 Minuteman Flames - Welsh @ BOSTON VIPERS 2012 - PALMER 6–2
92.0%
4.5%
0.12
86 Nov 30, 2025 Boch Blazers - Black @ IHC West - Proulx 1–4
3.5%
92.6%
0.11
87 Nov 15, 2025 IHC West - Proulx @ Boch Blazers - Black 7–1
93.0%
3.2%
0.10
88 Nov 08, 2025 Boch Blazers - Black @ IHC West - Proulx 2–4
3.0%
93.6%
0.10
89 Dec 28, 2025 Northeast Generals - Rollock @ Manchester Flames - Engvik 2–4
3.0%
93.6%
0.10
90 Oct 11, 2025 IHC West - Proulx @ Manchester Flames - Engvik 1–7
2.8%
93.9%
0.09
91 Oct 04, 2025 Shamrocks - Hamilton @ Manchester Flames - Engvik 4–9
2.1%
94.3% ⚠
0.09
92 Oct 25, 2025 IHC West - Proulx @ Manchester Flames - Engvik 0–9
2.7%
94.4%
0.08
93 Nov 30, 2025 Manchester Flames - Engvik @ Northeast Generals - Rollock 3–2
94.5%
2.3%
0.08
94 Dec 21, 2025 Manchester Flames - Engvik @ IHC West - Proulx 7–2
95.2%
2.2%
0.07
95 Nov 29, 2025 Shamrocks - Hamilton @ Boch Blazers - Black 3–1
95.5%
1.9%
0.07
96 Jan 17, 2026 BOSTON VIPERS 2012 - PALMER @ Minuteman Flames - Welsh 3–10
2.2%
95.7%
0.06
97 Dec 07, 2025 Minuteman Flames - Welsh @ Boch Blazers - Connors 2–5
1.8%
95.8%
0.06
98 Oct 19, 2025 Manchester Flames - Engvik @ Shamrocks - Hamilton 12–3
96.4%
1.5%
0.05
99 Feb 14, 2026 Boch Blazers - Connors @ BOSTON VIPERS 2012 - PALMER 8–1
96.5%
1.4%
0.05
100 Feb 01, 2026 Boch Blazers - Connors @ BOSTON VIPERS 2012 - PALMER 9–0
96.7%
1.4%
0.05
101 Feb 21, 2026 BOSTON VIPERS 2012 - PALMER @ Minuteman Flames - Welsh 2–9
1.5%
96.8%
0.05
102 Oct 04, 2025 Minuteman Flames - Welsh @ Boch Blazers - Black 8–3
96.8%
1.7% ⚠
0.05
103 Feb 08, 2026 Minuteman Flames - Welsh @ BOSTON VIPERS 2012 - PALMER 7–0
96.9%
1.5%
0.05
104 Oct 19, 2025 Boch Blazers - Black @ Minuteman Flames - Welsh 1–9
1.3%
97.1%
0.04
105 Nov 16, 2025 Manchester Flames - Engvik @ IHC West - Proulx 7–1
97.4%
1.1%
0.04
106 Nov 02, 2025 Shamrocks - Hamilton @ Manchester Flames - Engvik 2–7
0.9%
97.8%
0.03
107 Feb 15, 2026 Boch Blazers - Connors @ Northern Cyclones - Chiulli 10–2
98.3%
0.5%
0.02
108 Feb 15, 2026 Northern Cyclones - Chiulli @ Boch Blazers - Connors 1–8
0.5%
98.3%
0.02
109 Jan 24, 2026 Northern Cyclones - Chiulli @ Minuteman Flames - Welsh 0–9
0.7%
98.4%
0.02
110 Sep 28, 2025 Boch Blazers - Black @ Manchester Flames - Engvik 0–17
0.5%
98.6% ⚠
0.02
111 Jan 24, 2026 Manchester Flames - Engvik @ BOSTON VIPERS 2012 - PALMER 12–0
98.8%
0.5%
0.02
112 Jan 03, 2026 BOSTON VIPERS 2012 - PALMER @ Manchester Flames - Engvik 1–11
0.5%
98.9%
0.02
113 Dec 06, 2025 Boch Blazers - Connors @ Shamrocks - Hamilton 1–0
99.0%
0.3%
0.01
114 Feb 20, 2026 Boch Blazers - Connors @ Boch Blazers - Black 6–0
99.0%
0.3%
0.01
115 Nov 09, 2025 Boch Blazers - Black @ Minuteman Flames - Welsh 0–14
0.3%
99.1%
0.01
116 Feb 22, 2026 Minuteman Flames - Welsh @ Northern Cyclones - Chiulli 8–2
99.2%
0.3%
0.01
117 Nov 22, 2025 IHC West - Proulx @ Boch Blazers - Connors 1–9
0.2%
99.2%
0.01
118 Nov 22, 2025 Manchester Flames - Engvik @ BOSTON VIPERS 2012 - PALMER 8–0
99.3%
0.3%
0.01
119 Nov 29, 2025 Boch Blazers - Connors @ IHC West - Proulx 8–0
99.4%
0.2%
0.01
120 Jan 18, 2026 Minuteman Flames - Welsh @ Boch Blazers - Black 6–4
99.5%
0.2%
0.01
121 Jan 04, 2026 Boch Blazers - Black @ Boch Blazers - Connors 0–6
0.1%
99.6%
0.01
122 Dec 06, 2025 Boch Blazers - Black @ Minuteman Flames - Welsh 5–9
0.1%
99.6%
0.01
123 Jan 23, 2026 Manchester Flames - Engvik @ Northern Cyclones - Chiulli 7–1
99.6%
0.1%
0.01
124 Jan 02, 2026 Boch Blazers - Connors @ Boch Blazers - Black 10–2
99.7%
0.1%
0.00
125 Dec 13, 2025 BOSTON VIPERS 2012 - PALMER @ Boch Blazers - Connors 2–5
0.1%
99.8%
0.00
126 Jan 17, 2026 Manchester Flames - Engvik @ Boch Blazers - Black 11–2
99.9%
0.0%
0.00
127 Oct 26, 2025 Northern Cyclones - Chiulli @ Manchester Flames - Engvik 0–9
0.0%
99.9%
0.00
128 Nov 23, 2025 BOSTON VIPERS 2012 - PALMER @ Boch Blazers - Connors 2–11
0.0%
99.9%
0.00
129 Nov 01, 2025 Manchester Flames - Engvik @ Boch Blazers - Black 16–1
100.0%
0.0%
0.00
130 Nov 23, 2025 Boch Blazers - Black @ Manchester Flames - Engvik 2–6
0.0%
100.0%
0.00