Upset Index

Games sorted by how surprising the result was, based on pre-game Dixon-Coles probabilities.

All Upsets only Low confidence
# Date Matchup Result Pre-game odds Surprisal (bits)
1 Oct 05, 2025 South Shore Kings - Lavery @ Northeast Generals - Ruggiero 4–2
1.6%
94.9%
5.94 UPSET
2 Sep 21, 2025 Northeast Generals - Ruggiero @ NorthStars - Oram 1–3
96.1%
1.6% ⚠
5.93 UPSET
3 Sep 28, 2025 Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian @ Spartans - Healey 4–4
1.0%
97.1%
5.78 UPSET
4 Oct 04, 2025 Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ Spartans - Healey 5–2
3.0%
92.7%
5.05 UPSET
5 Feb 22, 2026 Northeast Generals - Ruggiero @ Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian 5–5
93.9%
2.9%
4.98 UPSET
6 Dec 06, 2025 Spartans - Healey @ Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian 2–2
89.7%
5.0%
4.24 UPSET
7 Nov 29, 2025 Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett 4–4
6.0%
87.9%
4.05 UPSET
8 Nov 30, 2025 Northeast Generals - Ruggiero @ Minuteman Flames - Hayes 4–4
82.7%
8.8%
3.54 UPSET
9 Dec 07, 2025 Minuteman Flames - Hayes @ Top Gun - Rome 3–1
8.9%
82.9%
3.48 UPSET
10 Feb 21, 2026 Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ Northeast Generals - Ruggiero 3–3
12.6%
78.3%
3.45 UPSET
11 Dec 28, 2025 Spartans - Healey @ South Shore Kings - Lavery 2–2
78.6%
12.1%
3.44 UPSET
12 Dec 20, 2025 South Shore Kings - Lavery @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett 4–3
9.4%
82.7%
3.42 UPSET
13 Jan 31, 2026 Northern Cyclones - Bartlett @ South Shore Kings - Lavery 5–6
82.3%
9.6%
3.38 UPSET
14 Dec 14, 2025 Spartans - Healey @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone 3–3
81.5%
8.9%
3.37 UPSET
15 Feb 07, 2026 Top Gun - Rome @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone 2–5
81.5%
10.1%
3.31 UPSET
16 Nov 29, 2025 NorthStars - Oram @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone 2–2
79.1%
10.7%
3.30 UPSET
17 Oct 12, 2025 Minuteman Flames - Hayes @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett 4–3
11.2%
79.7%
3.16 UPSET
18 Dec 20, 2025 Spartans - Healey @ Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal 2–2
71.5%
17.2%
3.14 UPSET
19 Jan 10, 2026 Minuteman Flames - Hayes @ NorthStars - Oram 2–2
22.9%
64.2%
2.96 UPSET
20 Feb 21, 2026 Spartans - Healey @ Minuteman Flames - Hayes 4–4
64.1%
22.8%
2.93 UPSET
21 Feb 14, 2026 Top Gun - Rome @ Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal 2–5
75.8%
14.0%
2.83 UPSET
22 Jan 17, 2026 South Shore Kings - Lavery @ Minuteman Flames - Hayes 4–4
27.2%
58.8%
2.83 UPSET
23 Feb 14, 2026 Northern Cyclones - Bartlett @ NorthStars - Oram 3–3
48.4%
37.4%
2.82
24 Jan 18, 2026 Minuteman Flames - Hayes @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone 2–2
55.9%
29.9%
2.82 UPSET
25 Jan 11, 2026 Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone 3–3
52.5%
33.0%
2.79 UPSET
26 Feb 21, 2026 Northeast Generals - Ruggiero @ Top Gun - Rome 3–3
50.1%
35.2%
2.77
27 Feb 01, 2026 Spartans - Healey @ Northeast Generals - Ruggiero 2–2
36.7%
48.4%
2.74
28 Jan 03, 2026 NorthStars - Oram @ Spartans - Healey 2–2
36.1%
48.9%
2.74
29 Feb 07, 2026 Northeast Generals - Ruggiero @ Minuteman Flames - Hayes 1–2
74.3%
15.2%
2.71 UPSET
30 Jan 11, 2026 Top Gun - Rome @ Minuteman Flames - Hayes 1–3
73.3%
15.8%
2.66 UPSET
31 Oct 18, 2025 Northern Cyclones - Bartlett @ Northeast Generals - Ruggiero 3–3
29.0%
54.8%
2.63 UPSET
32 Dec 06, 2025 Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ NorthStars - Oram 4–2
16.5%
72.1%
2.60 UPSET
33 Nov 02, 2025 Northern Cyclones - Bartlett @ Northeast Generals - Ruggiero 4–4
40.8%
42.6%
2.59
34 Feb 22, 2026 Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ Top Gun - Rome 4–1
18.9%
69.2%
2.40
35 Feb 22, 2026 Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett 6–5
19.9%
68.6%
2.33
36 Feb 07, 2026 Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian @ Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal 8–7
19.9%
68.4%
2.33
37 Sep 20, 2025 NorthStars - Oram @ Minuteman Flames - Hayes 5–1
23.3%
66.9% ⚠
2.10
38 Sep 21, 2025 Minuteman Flames - Hayes @ Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal 5–3
25.3%
58.5% ⚠
1.98
39 Jan 24, 2026 NorthStars - Oram @ Minuteman Flames - Hayes 1–4
60.1%
26.3%
1.93
40 Jan 04, 2026 Top Gun - Rome @ NorthStars - Oram 1–2
59.3%
26.7%
1.90
41 Feb 15, 2026 NorthStars - Oram @ Northeast Generals - Ruggiero 7–4
29.0%
57.1%
1.79
42 Nov 08, 2025 Spartans - Healey @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett 3–2
30.5%
53.5%
1.71
43 Oct 18, 2025 South Shore Kings - Lavery @ Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal 4–1
30.6%
54.1%
1.71
44 Sep 28, 2025 Minuteman Flames - Hayes @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone 3–2
30.9%
54.5%
1.69
45 Oct 26, 2025 Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian @ South Shore Kings - Lavery 4–2
32.5%
52.6%
1.62
46 Sep 27, 2025 Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone @ Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal 5–1
33.5%
52.1% ⚠
1.58
47 Dec 21, 2025 Top Gun - Rome @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett 0–2
51.9%
33.6%
1.57
48 Nov 15, 2025 Spartans - Healey @ Northeast Generals - Ruggiero 3–1
34.0%
48.7%
1.55
49 Nov 01, 2025 NorthStars - Oram @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett 2–6
50.9%
34.0%
1.55
50 Dec 28, 2025 Northeast Generals - Ruggiero @ Top Gun - Rome 1–4
50.3%
34.8%
1.52
51 Nov 23, 2025 Spartans - Healey @ NorthStars - Oram 5–6
46.5%
36.2%
1.46
52 Feb 20, 2026 Top Gun - Rome @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett 3–6
49.1%
36.3%
1.46
53 Jan 23, 2026 Northern Cyclones - Bartlett @ Top Gun - Rome 6–5
36.5%
48.4%
1.45
54 Dec 07, 2025 Spartans - Healey @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett 4–2
37.2%
46.8%
1.43
55 Feb 14, 2026 Northern Cyclones - Bartlett @ NorthStars - Oram 1–6
48.4%
37.4%
1.42
56 Jan 03, 2026 Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ Minuteman Flames - Hayes 5–2
38.4%
46.7%
1.38
57 Nov 22, 2025 Northeast Generals - Ruggiero @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett 2–4
45.1%
39.3%
1.35
58 Dec 21, 2025 Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone @ South Shore Kings - Lavery 1–2
44.4%
40.3%
1.31
59 Nov 22, 2025 Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone 2–1
40.7%
42.8%
1.30
60 Jan 24, 2026 Spartans - Healey @ Top Gun - Rome 1–5
44.0%
40.7%
1.30
61 Oct 18, 2025 Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone @ Minuteman Flames - Hayes 2–0
40.9%
43.1%
1.29
62 Nov 08, 2025 South Shore Kings - Lavery @ Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian 4–2
41.5%
42.2%
1.27
63 Dec 21, 2025 Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ Minuteman Flames - Hayes 3–4
40.3%
44.8%
1.16
64 Oct 05, 2025 Minuteman Flames - Hayes @ Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian 6–2
45.4%
40.5%
1.14
65 Dec 14, 2025 Northeast Generals - Ruggiero @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett 11–2
45.5%
39.7%
1.14
66 Nov 01, 2025 NorthStars - Oram @ Northeast Generals - Ruggiero 4–5
37.1%
45.5%
1.14
67 Dec 07, 2025 Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian @ South Shore Kings - Lavery 1–2
37.8%
46.0%
1.12
68 Oct 25, 2025 South Shore Kings - Lavery @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone 1–3
35.7%
46.5%
1.10
69 Oct 11, 2025 South Shore Kings - Lavery @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone 2–4
35.7%
47.1%
1.09
70 Feb 08, 2026 Northern Cyclones - Bartlett @ Top Gun - Rome 2–5
37.6%
47.5%
1.07
71 Feb 01, 2026 Minuteman Flames - Hayes @ Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal 5–2
47.8%
37.2%
1.07
72 Nov 30, 2025 Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ South Shore Kings - Lavery 6–2
47.8%
35.1%
1.07
73 Dec 27, 2025 Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone @ Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian 8–3
47.9%
37.4%
1.06
74 Oct 05, 2025 Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian 6–4
48.3%
38.0%
1.05
75 Feb 22, 2026 Northern Cyclones - Bartlett @ Spartans - Healey 2–4
35.9%
49.3%
1.02
76 Dec 20, 2025 NorthStars - Oram @ Top Gun - Rome 3–5
34.6%
50.4%
0.99
77 Dec 13, 2025 Northeast Generals - Ruggiero @ NorthStars - Oram 7–4
51.2%
33.4%
0.96
78 Jan 11, 2026 Spartans - Healey @ NorthStars - Oram 6–3
51.6%
33.5%
0.95
79 Dec 13, 2025 Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone @ Minuteman Flames - Hayes 3–7
31.0%
51.9%
0.95
80 Dec 28, 2025 Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone 3–11
31.9%
54.1%
0.89
81 Jan 24, 2026 Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ South Shore Kings - Lavery 3–2
54.3%
31.0%
0.88
82 Nov 23, 2025 South Shore Kings - Lavery @ Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian 4–3
55.4%
29.0%
0.85
83 Jan 31, 2026 Top Gun - Rome @ NorthStars - Oram 3–1
55.8%
29.7%
0.84
84 Nov 15, 2025 Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian @ Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal 0–2
29.1%
58.5%
0.77
85 Feb 22, 2026 Minuteman Flames - Hayes @ South Shore Kings - Lavery 10–3
60.1%
26.1%
0.73
86 Dec 14, 2025 Minuteman Flames - Hayes @ South Shore Kings - Lavery 1–0
61.3%
23.0%
0.71
87 Feb 14, 2026 Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone 4–5
25.5%
61.6%
0.70
88 Feb 22, 2026 Top Gun - Rome @ Minuteman Flames - Hayes 4–2
61.8%
24.7%
0.70
89 Dec 20, 2025 Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian @ Minuteman Flames - Hayes 2–8
24.0%
63.3%
0.66
90 Jan 31, 2026 Minuteman Flames - Hayes @ Spartans - Healey 0–3
21.8%
65.3%
0.61
91 Dec 14, 2025 NorthStars - Oram @ Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal 3–2
65.6%
21.5%
0.61
92 Jan 04, 2026 Spartans - Healey @ Minuteman Flames - Hayes 3–0
66.5%
20.9%
0.59
93 Jan 10, 2026 Northern Cyclones - Bartlett @ Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal 7–1
67.8%
20.4%
0.56
94 Dec 13, 2025 Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ Top Gun - Rome 0–4
19.0%
68.8%
0.54
95 Feb 15, 2026 Northern Cyclones - Bartlett @ Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal 4–2
69.3%
19.5%
0.53
96 Jan 25, 2026 South Shore Kings - Lavery @ NorthStars - Oram 1–7
17.2%
71.3%
0.49
97 Jan 04, 2026 Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian 4–2
71.8%
17.5%
0.48
98 Sep 27, 2025 Minuteman Flames - Hayes @ Spartans - Healey 1–9
13.8%
72.8% ⚠
0.46
99 Nov 08, 2025 Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone @ NorthStars - Oram 1–2
15.0%
72.9%
0.46
100 Feb 08, 2026 South Shore Kings - Lavery @ NorthStars - Oram 1–2
15.8%
73.3%
0.45
101 Feb 21, 2026 NorthStars - Oram @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone 8–1
73.4%
15.9%
0.45
102 Feb 08, 2026 Minuteman Flames - Hayes @ Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian 3–1
74.1%
15.5%
0.43
103 Feb 08, 2026 Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ Spartans - Healey 1–2
14.9%
74.5%
0.43
104 Oct 19, 2025 Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone @ NorthStars - Oram 1–4
12.9%
76.1%
0.39
105 Nov 09, 2025 Northern Cyclones - Bartlett @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone 7–1
76.1%
12.8%
0.39
106 Dec 07, 2025 Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ Northeast Generals - Ruggiero 4–5
13.4%
76.3%
0.39
107 Jan 10, 2026 Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone @ Spartans - Healey 0–6
13.6%
76.3%
0.39
108 Nov 30, 2025 Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone @ Top Gun - Rome 1–7
12.1%
76.6%
0.38
109 Nov 01, 2025 Northern Cyclones - Bartlett @ Minuteman Flames - Hayes 5–0
77.0%
13.0%
0.38
110 Nov 16, 2025 Northeast Generals - Ruggiero @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone 7–0
77.3%
11.8%
0.37
111 Dec 27, 2025 South Shore Kings - Lavery @ Top Gun - Rome 1–4
13.0%
77.6%
0.37
112 Dec 13, 2025 South Shore Kings - Lavery @ Spartans - Healey 0–7
10.5%
78.1%
0.36
113 Feb 21, 2026 Northern Cyclones - Bartlett @ South Shore Kings - Lavery 3–2
78.3%
12.3%
0.35
114 Nov 02, 2025 Spartans - Healey @ Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal 5–3
78.4%
11.6%
0.35
115 Nov 01, 2025 Spartans - Healey @ South Shore Kings - Lavery 2–0
78.5%
10.6%
0.35
116 Nov 02, 2025 Minuteman Flames - Hayes @ NorthStars - Oram 0–3
11.7%
78.7%
0.35
117 Jan 03, 2026 Top Gun - Rome @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone 6–1
79.4%
11.5%
0.33
118 Oct 12, 2025 Minuteman Flames - Hayes @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett 2–6
11.2%
79.7%
0.33
119 Jan 31, 2026 Northeast Generals - Ruggiero @ Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal 5–1
80.0%
11.4%
0.32
120 Nov 22, 2025 NorthStars - Oram @ South Shore Kings - Lavery 4–2
80.0%
9.7%
0.32
121 Dec 27, 2025 Northeast Generals - Ruggiero @ Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal 6–2
80.9%
10.8%
0.31
122 Feb 01, 2026 South Shore Kings - Lavery @ Top Gun - Rome 2–5
10.5%
81.1%
0.30
123 Nov 29, 2025 Top Gun - Rome @ South Shore Kings - Lavery 4–2
81.6%
9.0%
0.29
124 Dec 06, 2025 Northern Cyclones - Bartlett @ Minuteman Flames - Hayes 6–5
81.8%
9.6%
0.29
125 Nov 15, 2025 Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett 2–5
8.9%
82.3%
0.28
126 Nov 08, 2025 Minuteman Flames - Hayes @ Northeast Generals - Ruggiero 3–5
8.2%
83.2%
0.27
127 Dec 06, 2025 Northeast Generals - Ruggiero @ South Shore Kings - Lavery 4–0
83.2%
8.1%
0.26
128 Feb 08, 2026 Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone @ Northeast Generals - Ruggiero 1–4
8.7%
83.9%
0.25
129 Sep 28, 2025 Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ NorthStars - Oram 1–7
8.0%
84.8%
0.24
130 Nov 23, 2025 Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett 2–6
7.2%
85.1%
0.23
131 Jan 11, 2026 Northeast Generals - Ruggiero @ South Shore Kings - Lavery 7–4
85.9%
7.3%
0.22
132 Feb 01, 2026 NorthStars - Oram @ Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian 6–1
86.5%
7.2%
0.21
133 Dec 20, 2025 Northeast Generals - Ruggiero @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone 10–3
86.7%
6.8%
0.21
134 Oct 04, 2025 Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone @ Northeast Generals - Ruggiero 1–5
4.9%
88.0%
0.18
135 Nov 16, 2025 South Shore Kings - Lavery @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett 3–4
5.1%
88.7%
0.17
136 Feb 21, 2026 Top Gun - Rome @ Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian 6–1
88.9%
5.7%
0.17
137 Feb 15, 2026 Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian @ Top Gun - Rome 3–8
5.4%
89.2%
0.16
138 Dec 14, 2025 Top Gun - Rome @ Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian 3–2
89.7%
4.9%
0.16
139 Nov 16, 2025 Spartans - Healey @ Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian 9–2
90.2%
4.3%
0.15
140 Sep 27, 2025 NorthStars - Oram @ Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian 8–3
90.3%
4.8% ⚠
0.15
141 Nov 09, 2025 Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian @ NorthStars - Oram 1–6
4.8%
90.3%
0.15
142 Nov 30, 2025 Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian @ NorthStars - Oram 4–5
4.4%
91.1%
0.13
143 Jan 24, 2026 Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett 2–9
4.3%
91.6%
0.13
144 Oct 04, 2025 NorthStars - Oram @ South Shore Kings - Lavery 5–0
91.7%
3.8%
0.12
145 Dec 13, 2025 Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett 4–7
4.0%
91.8%
0.12
146 Jan 11, 2026 Northern Cyclones - Bartlett @ Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian 4–1
92.0%
4.0%
0.12
147 Oct 19, 2025 Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian @ Northeast Generals - Ruggiero 1–6
3.1%
93.1%
0.10
148 Nov 29, 2025 Northeast Generals - Ruggiero @ Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian 8–5
95.3%
2.0%
0.07
149 Jan 03, 2026 Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian @ Northeast Generals - Ruggiero 1–4
1.9%
95.9%
0.06