Season Review

What is Surprisal? Surprisal measures how surprising a result was, based on pre-game probabilities. 0 bits = perfectly predicted. 3+ bits = major upset. A result is flagged as an UPSET when surprisal exceeds 2.5 bits.

Standings

# Team GP W L T GF GA PTS
1 NorthStars - Oram 35 20 9 6 138 95 46
2 Northeast Generals - Ruggiero 34 19 7 8 155 92 46
3 Northern Cyclones - Bartlett 36 20 11 5 156 117 45
4 Spartans - Healey 31 16 4 11 110 69 43
5 Minuteman Flames - Hayes 35 17 13 5 110 110 39
6 Top Gun - Rome 28 16 10 2 101 71 34
7 Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal 35 13 18 4 109 126 30
8 Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone 34 10 20 4 90 137 24
9 South Shore Kings - Lavery 34 9 23 2 75 129 20
10 Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian 34 3 28 3 89 187 9

Game Log

Date Matchup Score Pre-game Probability Surprisal Flag
Feb 22 Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett 6–5
19.9%
68.6%
2.33
Feb 22 Top Gun - Rome @ Minuteman Flames - Hayes 4–2
61.8%
24.7%
0.70
Feb 22 Northeast Generals - Ruggiero @ Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian 5–5
93.9%
2.9%
4.98 UPSET
Feb 22 Northern Cyclones - Bartlett @ Spartans - Healey 2–4
35.9%
49.3%
1.02
Feb 22 Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ Top Gun - Rome 4–1
18.9%
69.2%
2.40
Feb 22 Minuteman Flames - Hayes @ South Shore Kings - Lavery 10–3
60.1%
26.1%
0.73
Feb 21 NorthStars - Oram @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone 8–1
73.4%
15.9%
0.45
Feb 21 Northern Cyclones - Bartlett @ South Shore Kings - Lavery 3–2
78.3%
12.3%
0.35
Feb 21 Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ Northeast Generals - Ruggiero 3–3
12.6%
78.3%
3.45 UPSET
Feb 21 Top Gun - Rome @ Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian 6–1
88.9%
5.7%
0.17
Feb 21 Spartans - Healey @ Minuteman Flames - Hayes 4–4
64.1%
22.8%
2.93 UPSET
Feb 21 Northeast Generals - Ruggiero @ Top Gun - Rome 3–3
50.1%
35.2%
2.77
Feb 20 Top Gun - Rome @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett 3–6
49.1%
36.3%
1.46
Feb 15 Northern Cyclones - Bartlett @ Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal 4–2
69.3%
19.5%
0.53
Feb 15 Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian @ Top Gun - Rome 3–8
5.4%
89.2%
0.16
Feb 15 NorthStars - Oram @ Northeast Generals - Ruggiero 7–4
29.0%
57.1%
1.79
Feb 14 Northern Cyclones - Bartlett @ NorthStars - Oram 3–3
48.4%
37.4%
2.82
Feb 14 Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone 4–5
25.5%
61.6%
0.70
Feb 14 Northern Cyclones - Bartlett @ NorthStars - Oram 1–6
48.4%
37.4%
1.42
Feb 14 Top Gun - Rome @ Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal 2–5
75.8%
14.0%
2.83 UPSET
Feb 08 South Shore Kings - Lavery @ NorthStars - Oram 1–2
15.8%
73.3%
0.45
Feb 08 Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ Spartans - Healey 1–2
14.9%
74.5%
0.43
Feb 08 Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone @ Northeast Generals - Ruggiero 1–4
8.7%
83.9%
0.25
Feb 08 Northern Cyclones - Bartlett @ Top Gun - Rome 2–5
37.6%
47.5%
1.07
Feb 08 Minuteman Flames - Hayes @ Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian 3–1
74.1%
15.5%
0.43
Feb 07 Northeast Generals - Ruggiero @ Minuteman Flames - Hayes 1–2
74.3%
15.2%
2.71 UPSET
Feb 07 Top Gun - Rome @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone 2–5
81.5%
10.1%
3.31 UPSET
Feb 07 Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian @ Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal 8–7
19.9%
68.4%
2.33
Feb 01 South Shore Kings - Lavery @ Top Gun - Rome 2–5
10.5%
81.1%
0.30
Feb 01 NorthStars - Oram @ Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian 6–1
86.5%
7.2%
0.21
Feb 01 Spartans - Healey @ Northeast Generals - Ruggiero 2–2
36.7%
48.4%
2.74
Feb 01 Minuteman Flames - Hayes @ Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal 5–2
47.8%
37.2%
1.07
Jan 31 Minuteman Flames - Hayes @ Spartans - Healey 0–3
21.8%
65.3%
0.61
Jan 31 Northern Cyclones - Bartlett @ South Shore Kings - Lavery 5–6
82.3%
9.6%
3.38 UPSET
Jan 31 Top Gun - Rome @ NorthStars - Oram 3–1
55.8%
29.7%
0.84
Jan 31 Northeast Generals - Ruggiero @ Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal 5–1
80.0%
11.4%
0.32
Jan 25 South Shore Kings - Lavery @ NorthStars - Oram 1–7
17.2%
71.3%
0.49
Jan 24 Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett 2–9
4.3%
91.6%
0.13
Jan 24 Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ South Shore Kings - Lavery 3–2
54.3%
31.0%
0.88
Jan 24 NorthStars - Oram @ Minuteman Flames - Hayes 1–4
60.1%
26.3%
1.93
Jan 24 Spartans - Healey @ Top Gun - Rome 1–5
44.0%
40.7%
1.30
Jan 23 Northern Cyclones - Bartlett @ Top Gun - Rome 6–5
36.5%
48.4%
1.45
Jan 18 Minuteman Flames - Hayes @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone 2–2
55.9%
29.9%
2.82 UPSET
Jan 17 South Shore Kings - Lavery @ Minuteman Flames - Hayes 4–4
27.2%
58.8%
2.83 UPSET
Jan 11 Top Gun - Rome @ Minuteman Flames - Hayes 1–3
73.3%
15.8%
2.66 UPSET
Jan 11 Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone 3–3
52.5%
33.0%
2.79 UPSET
Jan 11 Northeast Generals - Ruggiero @ South Shore Kings - Lavery 7–4
85.9%
7.3%
0.22
Jan 11 Northern Cyclones - Bartlett @ Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian 4–1
92.0%
4.0%
0.12
Jan 11 Spartans - Healey @ NorthStars - Oram 6–3
51.6%
33.5%
0.95
Jan 10 Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone @ Spartans - Healey 0–6
13.6%
76.3%
0.39
Jan 10 Northern Cyclones - Bartlett @ Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal 7–1
67.8%
20.4%
0.56
Jan 10 Minuteman Flames - Hayes @ NorthStars - Oram 2–2
22.9%
64.2%
2.96 UPSET
Jan 04 Top Gun - Rome @ NorthStars - Oram 1–2
59.3%
26.7%
1.90
Jan 04 Spartans - Healey @ Minuteman Flames - Hayes 3–0
66.5%
20.9%
0.59
Jan 04 Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian 4–2
71.8%
17.5%
0.48
Jan 03 Top Gun - Rome @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone 6–1
79.4%
11.5%
0.33
Jan 03 NorthStars - Oram @ Spartans - Healey 2–2
36.1%
48.9%
2.74
Jan 03 Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ Minuteman Flames - Hayes 5–2
38.4%
46.7%
1.38
Jan 03 Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian @ Northeast Generals - Ruggiero 1–4
1.9%
95.9%
0.06
Dec 28 Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone 3–11
31.9%
54.1%
0.89
Dec 28 Northeast Generals - Ruggiero @ Top Gun - Rome 1–4
50.3%
34.8%
1.52
Dec 28 Spartans - Healey @ South Shore Kings - Lavery 2–2
78.6%
12.1%
3.44 UPSET
Dec 27 Northeast Generals - Ruggiero @ Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal 6–2
80.9%
10.8%
0.31
Dec 27 South Shore Kings - Lavery @ Top Gun - Rome 1–4
13.0%
77.6%
0.37
Dec 27 Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone @ Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian 8–3
47.9%
37.4%
1.06
Dec 21 Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone @ South Shore Kings - Lavery 1–2
44.4%
40.3%
1.31
Dec 21 Top Gun - Rome @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett 0–2
51.9%
33.6%
1.57
Dec 21 Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ Minuteman Flames - Hayes 3–4
40.3%
44.8%
1.16
Dec 20 NorthStars - Oram @ Top Gun - Rome 3–5
34.6%
50.4%
0.99
Dec 20 South Shore Kings - Lavery @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett 4–3
9.4%
82.7%
3.42 UPSET
Dec 20 Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian @ Minuteman Flames - Hayes 2–8
24.0%
63.3%
0.66
Dec 20 Northeast Generals - Ruggiero @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone 10–3
86.7%
6.8%
0.21
Dec 20 Spartans - Healey @ Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal 2–2
71.5%
17.2%
3.14 UPSET
Dec 14 Spartans - Healey @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone 3–3
81.5%
8.9%
3.37 UPSET
Dec 14 Minuteman Flames - Hayes @ South Shore Kings - Lavery 1–0
61.3%
23.0%
0.71
Dec 14 Northeast Generals - Ruggiero @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett 11–2
45.5%
39.7%
1.14
Dec 14 Top Gun - Rome @ Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian 3–2
89.7%
4.9%
0.16
Dec 14 NorthStars - Oram @ Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal 3–2
65.6%
21.5%
0.61
Dec 13 South Shore Kings - Lavery @ Spartans - Healey 0–7
10.5%
78.1%
0.36
Dec 13 Northeast Generals - Ruggiero @ NorthStars - Oram 7–4
51.2%
33.4%
0.96
Dec 13 Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone @ Minuteman Flames - Hayes 3–7
31.0%
51.9%
0.95
Dec 13 Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett 4–7
4.0%
91.8%
0.12
Dec 13 Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ Top Gun - Rome 0–4
19.0%
68.8%
0.54
Dec 07 Minuteman Flames - Hayes @ Top Gun - Rome 3–1
8.9%
82.9%
3.48 UPSET
Dec 07 Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian @ South Shore Kings - Lavery 1–2
37.8%
46.0%
1.12
Dec 07 Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ Northeast Generals - Ruggiero 4–5
13.4%
76.3%
0.39
Dec 07 Spartans - Healey @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett 4–2
37.2%
46.8%
1.43
Dec 06 Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ NorthStars - Oram 4–2
16.5%
72.1%
2.60 UPSET
Dec 06 Northeast Generals - Ruggiero @ South Shore Kings - Lavery 4–0
83.2%
8.1%
0.26
Dec 06 Spartans - Healey @ Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian 2–2
89.7%
5.0%
4.24 UPSET
Dec 06 Northern Cyclones - Bartlett @ Minuteman Flames - Hayes 6–5
81.8%
9.6%
0.29
Nov 30 Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian @ NorthStars - Oram 4–5
4.4%
91.1%
0.13
Nov 30 Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ South Shore Kings - Lavery 6–2
47.8%
35.1%
1.07
Nov 30 Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone @ Top Gun - Rome 1–7
12.1%
76.6%
0.38
Nov 30 Northeast Generals - Ruggiero @ Minuteman Flames - Hayes 4–4
82.7%
8.8%
3.54 UPSET
Nov 29 Northeast Generals - Ruggiero @ Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian 8–5
95.3%
2.0%
0.07
Nov 29 NorthStars - Oram @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone 2–2
79.1%
10.7%
3.30 UPSET
Nov 29 Top Gun - Rome @ South Shore Kings - Lavery 4–2
81.6%
9.0%
0.29
Nov 29 Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett 4–4
6.0%
87.9%
4.05 UPSET
Nov 23 Spartans - Healey @ NorthStars - Oram 5–6
46.5%
36.2%
1.46
Nov 23 South Shore Kings - Lavery @ Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian 4–3
55.4%
29.0%
0.85
Nov 23 Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett 2–6
7.2%
85.1%
0.23
Nov 23 Top Gun - Rome @ Northeast Generals - Ruggiero 2–5 50/50 —
Nov 22 Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone 2–1
40.7%
42.8%
1.30
Nov 22 Spartans - Healey @ Top Gun - Rome 2–2 50/50 —
Nov 22 NorthStars - Oram @ South Shore Kings - Lavery 4–2
80.0%
9.7%
0.32
Nov 22 Northeast Generals - Ruggiero @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett 2–4
45.1%
39.3%
1.35
Nov 16 Spartans - Healey @ Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian 9–2
90.2%
4.3%
0.15
Nov 16 Northeast Generals - Ruggiero @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone 7–0
77.3%
11.8%
0.37
Nov 16 South Shore Kings - Lavery @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett 3–4
5.1%
88.7%
0.17
Nov 15 Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett 2–5
8.9%
82.3%
0.28
Nov 15 Spartans - Healey @ Northeast Generals - Ruggiero 3–1
34.0%
48.7%
1.55
Nov 15 Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian @ Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal 0–2
29.1%
58.5%
0.77
Nov 09 Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian @ NorthStars - Oram 1–6
4.8%
90.3%
0.15
Nov 09 Top Gun - Rome @ Spartans - Healey 5–2 50/50 —
Nov 09 Northern Cyclones - Bartlett @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone 7–1
76.1%
12.8%
0.39
Nov 08 Spartans - Healey @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett 3–2
30.5%
53.5%
1.71
Nov 08 South Shore Kings - Lavery @ Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian 4–2
41.5%
42.2%
1.27
Nov 08 Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone @ NorthStars - Oram 1–2
15.0%
72.9%
0.46
Nov 08 Minuteman Flames - Hayes @ Northeast Generals - Ruggiero 3–5
8.2%
83.2%
0.27
Nov 02 Spartans - Healey @ Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal 5–3
78.4%
11.6%
0.35
Nov 02 Northern Cyclones - Bartlett @ Northeast Generals - Ruggiero 4–4
40.8%
42.6%
2.59
Nov 02 Minuteman Flames - Hayes @ NorthStars - Oram 0–3
11.7%
78.7%
0.35
Nov 01 Spartans - Healey @ South Shore Kings - Lavery 2–0
78.5%
10.6%
0.35
Nov 01 NorthStars - Oram @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett 2–6
50.9%
34.0%
1.55
Nov 01 Northern Cyclones - Bartlett @ Minuteman Flames - Hayes 5–0
77.0%
13.0%
0.38
Nov 01 NorthStars - Oram @ Northeast Generals - Ruggiero 4–5
37.1%
45.5%
1.14
Oct 26 Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian @ South Shore Kings - Lavery 4–2
32.5%
52.6%
1.62
Oct 25 South Shore Kings - Lavery @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone 1–3
35.7%
46.5%
1.10
Oct 19 Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone @ NorthStars - Oram 1–4
12.9%
76.1%
0.39
Oct 19 Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian @ Northeast Generals - Ruggiero 1–6
3.1%
93.1%
0.10
Oct 18 Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone @ Minuteman Flames - Hayes 2–0
40.9%
43.1%
1.29
Oct 18 Northern Cyclones - Bartlett @ Northeast Generals - Ruggiero 3–3
29.0%
54.8%
2.63 UPSET
Oct 18 South Shore Kings - Lavery @ Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal 4–1
30.6%
54.1%
1.71
Oct 12 Minuteman Flames - Hayes @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett 2–6
11.2%
79.7%
0.33
Oct 12 Minuteman Flames - Hayes @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett 4–3
11.2%
79.7%
3.16 UPSET
Oct 11 South Shore Kings - Lavery @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone 2–4
35.7%
47.1%
1.09
Oct 05 Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian 6–4
48.3%
38.0%
1.05
Oct 05 Minuteman Flames - Hayes @ Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian 6–2
45.4%
40.5%
1.14
Oct 05 South Shore Kings - Lavery @ Northeast Generals - Ruggiero 4–2
1.6%
94.9%
5.94 UPSET
Oct 04 Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ Spartans - Healey 5–2
3.0%
92.7%
5.05 UPSET
Oct 04 NorthStars - Oram @ South Shore Kings - Lavery 5–0
91.7%
3.8%
0.12
Oct 04 Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone @ Northeast Generals - Ruggiero 1–5
4.9%
88.0%
0.18
Sep 28 Minuteman Flames - Hayes @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone 3–2
30.9%
54.5%
1.69
Sep 28 Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian @ Spartans - Healey 4–4
1.0%
97.1%
5.78 UPSET
Sep 28 Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ NorthStars - Oram 1–7
8.0%
84.8%
0.24
Sep 27 Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone @ Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal 5–1
33.5%
52.1% ⚠
1.58
Sep 27 NorthStars - Oram @ Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian 8–3
90.3%
4.8% ⚠
0.15
Sep 27 Minuteman Flames - Hayes @ Spartans - Healey 1–9
13.8%
72.8% ⚠
0.46
Sep 21 Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone @ Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian 3–5 50/50 —
Sep 21 Northeast Generals - Ruggiero @ NorthStars - Oram 1–3
96.1%
1.6% ⚠
5.93 UPSET
Sep 21 Minuteman Flames - Hayes @ Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal 5–3
25.3%
58.5% ⚠
1.98
Sep 20 Northeast Generals - Ruggiero @ Spartans - Healey 3–3 50/50 —
Sep 20 South Shore Kings - Lavery @ Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal 4–2 50/50 —
Sep 20 NorthStars - Oram @ Minuteman Flames - Hayes 5–1
23.3%
66.9% ⚠
2.10
Sep 20 Northern Cyclones - Bartlett @ Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian 6–1 50/50 —
Sep 14 South Shore Kings - Lavery @ Minuteman Flames - Hayes 2–4 50/50 —
Sep 14 NorthStars - Oram @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett 5–5 50/50 —
Sep 14 Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone @ Spartans - Healey 2–4 50/50 —
Sep 13 Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone @ South Shore Kings - Lavery 4–3 50/50 —
Sep 13 Northern Cyclones - Bartlett @ Spartans - Healey 1–2 50/50 —
Sep 13 NorthStars - Oram @ Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal 3–7 50/50 —
Sep 13 Minuteman Flames - Hayes @ Northeast Generals - Ruggiero 0–6 50/50 —
Sep 07 Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone @ Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal 3–2 50/50 —
Sep 07 NorthStars - Oram @ Spartans - Healey 2–2 50/50 —
Sep 06 South Shore Kings - Lavery @ Northeast Generals - Ruggiero 0–6 50/50 —
Sep 06 Northern Cyclones - Bartlett @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone 6–3 50/50 —
Sep 06 Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian @ Minuteman Flames - Hayes 2–6 50/50 —