The Sheet

What is Surprisal? Surprisal measures how surprising a result was, based on pre-game probabilities. 0 bits = perfectly predicted. 3+ bits = major upset. A result is flagged as an UPSET when surprisal exceeds 2.5 bits.

Standings

#	Team	GP	W	L	T	GF	GA	PTS	Champ %
1	NorthStars - Oram	36	20	9	7	138	95	47	11%
2	Northeast Generals - Ruggiero	35	19	7	9	155	92	47	0%
3	Spartans - Healey	35	16	4	15	110	69	47	15%
4	Northern Cyclones - Bartlett	36	20	11	5	156	117	45	49%
5	Minuteman Flames - Hayes	35	17	13	5	110	110	39	12%
6	Top Gun - Rome	29	16	10	3	101	71	35	12%
7	Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal	35	13	18	4	109	126	30	0%
8	Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone	35	10	20	5	90	137	25	0%
9	South Shore Kings - Lavery	35	9	23	3	75	129	21	—
10	Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian	35	3	28	4	89	187	10	—

Projected Finish

How the rest of the season could play out — remaining games are simulated with home ice and rating uncertainty, then finishing positions are tallied. Ranges show the likely spread, not a single guaranteed rank. An analytical model for discussion, not advice.

#	Team	Proj. Finish	Win Division	Proj. Points
1	Spartans - Healey	1 (1–2)	73%	49 (47–51)
2	NorthStars - Oram	2 (2–3)	13%	47 (46–48)
3	Northeast Generals - Ruggiero	3 (2–3)	15%	47 (46–48)
4	Northern Cyclones - Bartlett	4	<1%	45 (45–45)
5	Minuteman Flames - Hayes	5	<1%	39 (39–39)
6	Top Gun - Rome	6	<1%	35 (34–36)
7	Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal	7	<1%	30 (30–30)
8	Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone	8	<1%	24 (24–26)
9	South Shore Kings - Lavery	9	<1%	20 (20–22)
10	Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian	10	<1%	9 (9–10)

Game Log

Date	Matchup	Score	Pre-game Probability	Surprisal	Flag
Feb 22	Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett	6–5	20% 68%	2.30
Feb 22	Top Gun - Rome @ Minuteman Flames - Hayes	4–2	52% 30%	0.94
Feb 22	Northeast Generals - Ruggiero @ Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian	5–5	91% 4%	4.44	UPSET
Feb 22	Northern Cyclones - Bartlett @ Spartans - Healey	2–4	35% 48%	1.07
Feb 22	Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ Top Gun - Rome	4–1	18% 69%	2.52	UPSET
Feb 22	Minuteman Flames - Hayes @ South Shore Kings - Lavery	10–3	55% 27%	0.87
Feb 21	NorthStars - Oram @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone	8–1	68% 18%	0.55
Feb 21	Northern Cyclones - Bartlett @ South Shore Kings - Lavery	3–2	74% 15%	0.44
Feb 21	Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ Northeast Generals - Ruggiero	3–3	12% 79%	3.38	UPSET
Feb 21	Spartans - Healey @ Minuteman Flames - Hayes	4–4	55% 25%	2.37
Feb 21	Top Gun - Rome @ Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian	6–1	85% 8%	0.24
Feb 21	Northeast Generals - Ruggiero @ Top Gun - Rome	3–3	47% 36%	2.58
Feb 21	Top Gun - Rome @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett	3–6	44% 40%	1.34
Feb 15	Northern Cyclones - Bartlett @ Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal	4–2	65% 22%	0.62
Feb 15	Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian @ Top Gun - Rome	3–8	6% 88%	0.19
Feb 15	NorthStars - Oram @ Northeast Generals - Ruggiero	7–4	27% 58%	1.91
Feb 14	Northern Cyclones - Bartlett @ NorthStars - Oram	3–3	40% 45%	2.72
Feb 14	Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone	4–5	24% 63%	0.67
Feb 14	Northern Cyclones - Bartlett @ NorthStars - Oram	1–6	44% 41%	1.30
Feb 14	Top Gun - Rome @ Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal	2–5	70% 17%	2.57	UPSET
Feb 08	South Shore Kings - Lavery @ NorthStars - Oram	1–2	14% 73%	0.46
Feb 08	Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ Spartans - Healey	1–2	15% 71%	0.50
Feb 08	Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone @ Northeast Generals - Ruggiero	1–4	9% 83%	0.27
Feb 08	Northern Cyclones - Bartlett @ Top Gun - Rome	2–5	36% 48%	1.07
Feb 08	Minuteman Flames - Hayes @ Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian	3–1	70% 18%	0.52
Feb 07	Northeast Generals - Ruggiero @ Minuteman Flames - Hayes	1–2	70% 18%	2.50
Feb 07	Top Gun - Rome @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone	2–5	74% 13%	2.96	UPSET
Feb 07	Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian @ Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal	8–7	19% 69%	2.41
Feb 01	South Shore Kings - Lavery @ Top Gun - Rome	2–5	10% 78%	0.36
Feb 01	NorthStars - Oram @ Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian	6–1	82% 10%	0.29
Feb 01	Spartans - Healey @ Northeast Generals - Ruggiero	2–2	31% 51%	2.49
Feb 01	Minuteman Flames - Hayes @ Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal	5–2	44% 39%	1.18
Feb 01	Minuteman Flames - Hayes @ Spartans - Healey	0–3	22% 61%	0.71
Jan 31	Northern Cyclones - Bartlett @ South Shore Kings - Lavery	5–6	77% 12%	3.07	UPSET
Jan 31	Top Gun - Rome @ NorthStars - Oram	3–1	48% 34%	1.05
Jan 31	Northeast Generals - Ruggiero @ Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal	5–1	76% 14%	0.40
Jan 25	South Shore Kings - Lavery @ NorthStars - Oram	1–7	16% 70%	0.51
Jan 24	Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ South Shore Kings - Lavery	3–2	49% 33%	1.03
Jan 24	NorthStars - Oram @ Minuteman Flames - Hayes	1–4	55% 29%	1.79
Jan 24	Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett	2–9	5% 91%	0.14
Jan 24	Spartans - Healey @ Top Gun - Rome	1–5	38% 40%	1.32
Jan 24	Northern Cyclones - Bartlett @ Top Gun - Rome	6–5	35% 47%	1.50
Jan 18	Minuteman Flames - Hayes @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone	2–2	51% 32%	2.61	UPSET
Jan 17	South Shore Kings - Lavery @ Minuteman Flames - Hayes	4–4	24% 58%	2.50
Jan 11	Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone	3–3	48% 36%	2.63
Jan 11	Top Gun - Rome @ Minuteman Flames - Hayes	1–3	64% 19%	2.37
Jan 11	Northeast Generals - Ruggiero @ South Shore Kings - Lavery	7–4	81% 9%	0.31
Jan 11	Northern Cyclones - Bartlett @ Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian	4–1	88% 6%	0.19
Jan 11	Spartans - Healey @ NorthStars - Oram	6–3	43% 37%	1.20
Jan 11	Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone @ Spartans - Healey	0–6	15% 71%	0.50
Jan 10	Northern Cyclones - Bartlett @ Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal	7–1	62% 24%	0.68
Jan 10	Minuteman Flames - Hayes @ NorthStars - Oram	2–2	21% 64%	2.82	UPSET
Jan 04	Spartans - Healey @ Minuteman Flames - Hayes	3–0	57% 25%	0.81
Jan 04	Top Gun - Rome @ NorthStars - Oram	1–2	50% 32%	1.64
Jan 04	Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian	4–2	67% 21%	0.58
Jan 03	Top Gun - Rome @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone	6–1	70% 16%	0.51
Jan 03	NorthStars - Oram @ Spartans - Healey	2–2	36% 46%	2.41
Jan 03	Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ Minuteman Flames - Hayes	5–2	35% 49%	1.52
Jan 03	Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian @ Northeast Generals - Ruggiero	1–4	2% 95%	0.08
Dec 28	Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone	3–11	29% 56%	0.83
Dec 28	Spartans - Healey @ South Shore Kings - Lavery	2–2	68% 15%	2.54	UPSET
Dec 28	Northeast Generals - Ruggiero @ Top Gun - Rome	1–4	50% 33%	1.60
Dec 27	Northeast Generals - Ruggiero @ Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal	6–2	76% 14%	0.40
Dec 27	South Shore Kings - Lavery @ Top Gun - Rome	1–4	13% 72%	0.48
Dec 27	Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone @ Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian	8–3	45% 39%	1.16
Dec 21	Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone @ South Shore Kings - Lavery	1–2	39% 41%	1.30
Dec 21	Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ Minuteman Flames - Hayes	3–4	36% 48%	1.07
Dec 21	Top Gun - Rome @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett	0–2	44% 40%	1.33
Dec 20	NorthStars - Oram @ Top Gun - Rome	3–5	36% 46%	1.12
Dec 20	South Shore Kings - Lavery @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett	4–3	10% 80%	3.33	UPSET
Dec 20	Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian @ Minuteman Flames - Hayes	2–8	22% 64%	0.64
Dec 20	Northeast Generals - Ruggiero @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone	10–3	81% 10%	0.31
Dec 20	Spartans - Healey @ Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal	2–2	61% 22%	2.64	UPSET
Dec 14	Spartans - Healey @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone	3–3	70% 14%	2.70	UPSET
Dec 14	Minuteman Flames - Hayes @ South Shore Kings - Lavery	1–0	54% 29%	0.89
Dec 14	Northeast Generals - Ruggiero @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett	11–2	42% 42%	1.23
Dec 14	NorthStars - Oram @ Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal	3–2	61% 25%	0.71
Dec 14	Top Gun - Rome @ Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian	3–2	80% 10%	0.32
Dec 13	South Shore Kings - Lavery @ Spartans - Healey	0–7	14% 70%	0.52
Dec 13	Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone @ Minuteman Flames - Hayes	3–7	30% 52%	0.95
Dec 13	Northeast Generals - Ruggiero @ NorthStars - Oram	7–4	46% 38%	1.13
Dec 13	Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett	4–7	5% 90%	0.15
Dec 13	Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ Top Gun - Rome	0–4	23% 63%	0.67
Dec 07	Minuteman Flames - Hayes @ Top Gun - Rome	3–1	14% 75%	2.86	UPSET
Dec 07	Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian @ South Shore Kings - Lavery	1–2	33% 50%	1.00
Dec 07	Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ Northeast Generals - Ruggiero	4–5	15% 74%	0.44
Dec 07	Spartans - Healey @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett	4–2	31% 52%	1.69
Dec 06	Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ NorthStars - Oram	4–2	16% 72%	2.63	UPSET
Dec 06	Northeast Generals - Ruggiero @ South Shore Kings - Lavery	4–0	75% 13%	0.41
Dec 06	Spartans - Healey @ Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian	2–2	78% 11%	3.22	UPSET
Dec 06	Northern Cyclones - Bartlett @ Minuteman Flames - Hayes	6–5	76% 14%	0.40
Nov 30	Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian @ NorthStars - Oram	4–5	5% 89%	0.17
Nov 30	Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ South Shore Kings - Lavery	6–2	42% 40%	1.25
Nov 30	Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone @ Top Gun - Rome	1–7	18% 66%	0.59
Nov 30	Northeast Generals - Ruggiero @ Minuteman Flames - Hayes	4–4	75% 13%	3.14	UPSET
Nov 29	Northeast Generals - Ruggiero @ Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian	8–5	89% 5%	0.17
Nov 29	NorthStars - Oram @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone	2–2	72% 15%	2.94	UPSET
Nov 29	Top Gun - Rome @ South Shore Kings - Lavery	4–2	61% 22%	0.71
Nov 29	Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett	4–4	8% 85%	3.83	UPSET
Nov 23	Spartans - Healey @ NorthStars - Oram	5–6	33% 47%	1.09
Nov 23	South Shore Kings - Lavery @ Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian	4–3	53% 30%	0.91
Nov 23	Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett	2–6	9% 81%	0.30
Nov 23	Top Gun - Rome @ Northeast Generals - Ruggiero	2–5	33% 48%	1.07
Nov 22	Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone	2–1	37% 46%	1.44
Nov 22	Spartans - Healey @ Top Gun - Rome	2–2	50/50	—
Nov 22	NorthStars - Oram @ South Shore Kings - Lavery	4–2	71% 15%	0.49
Nov 22	Northeast Generals - Ruggiero @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett	2–4	40% 44%	1.19
Nov 16	Spartans - Healey @ Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian	9–2	74% 13%	0.44
Nov 16	Northeast Generals - Ruggiero @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone	7–0	66% 19%	0.59
Nov 16	South Shore Kings - Lavery @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett	3–4	8% 83%	0.27
Nov 15	Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett	2–5	12% 77%	0.37
Nov 15	Spartans - Healey @ Northeast Generals - Ruggiero	3–1	27% 54%	1.90
Nov 15	Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian @ Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal	0–2	29% 58%	0.79
Nov 09	Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian @ NorthStars - Oram	1–6	7% 86%	0.22
Nov 09	Top Gun - Rome @ Spartans - Healey	5–2	50/50	—
Nov 09	Northern Cyclones - Bartlett @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone	7–1	66% 20%	0.60
Nov 09	South Shore Kings - Lavery @ Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian	4–2	42% 40%	1.24
Nov 09	Spartans - Healey @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett	3–2	27% 55%	1.90
Nov 08	Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone @ NorthStars - Oram	1–2	18% 68%	0.56
Nov 08	Minuteman Flames - Hayes @ Northeast Generals - Ruggiero	3–5	11% 78%	0.36
Nov 02	Spartans - Healey @ Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal	5–3	62% 22%	0.70
Nov 02	Northern Cyclones - Bartlett @ Northeast Generals - Ruggiero	4–4	40% 44%	2.58
Nov 02	Minuteman Flames - Hayes @ NorthStars - Oram	0–3	13% 76%	0.40
Nov 01	Spartans - Healey @ South Shore Kings - Lavery	2–0	57% 22%	0.80
Nov 01	NorthStars - Oram @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett	2–6	42% 42%	1.25
Nov 01	Northern Cyclones - Bartlett @ Minuteman Flames - Hayes	5–0	68% 20%	0.57
Nov 01	NorthStars - Oram @ Northeast Generals - Ruggiero	4–5	39% 43%	1.22
Oct 26	Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian @ South Shore Kings - Lavery	4–2	27% 57%	1.88
Oct 25	South Shore Kings - Lavery @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone	1–3	35% 46%	1.12
Oct 19	Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone @ NorthStars - Oram	1–4	16% 70%	0.51
Oct 19	Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian @ Northeast Generals - Ruggiero	1–6	7% 86%	0.23
Oct 18	Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone @ Minuteman Flames - Hayes	2–0	40% 44%	1.32
Oct 18	Northern Cyclones - Bartlett @ Northeast Generals - Ruggiero	3–3	31% 52%	2.58	UPSET
Oct 18	South Shore Kings - Lavery @ Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal	4–1	33% 50%	1.59
Oct 12	Minuteman Flames - Hayes @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett	2–6	23% 64%	0.65
Oct 12	Minuteman Flames - Hayes @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett	4–3	16% 73%	2.65	UPSET
Oct 11	South Shore Kings - Lavery @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone	2–4	35% 46%	1.11
Oct 05	Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian	6–4	52% 34%	0.95
Oct 05	Minuteman Flames - Hayes @ Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian	6–2	43% 42%	1.23
Oct 05	South Shore Kings - Lavery @ Northeast Generals - Ruggiero	4–2	7% 82%	3.80	UPSET
Oct 04	Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ Spartans - Healey	5–2	12% 74%	3.04	UPSET
Oct 04	NorthStars - Oram @ South Shore Kings - Lavery	5–0	71% 16%	0.49
Oct 04	Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone @ Northeast Generals - Ruggiero	1–5	14% 72%	0.47
Sep 28	Minuteman Flames - Hayes @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone	3–2	26% 59%	1.91
Sep 28	Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian @ Spartans - Healey	4–4	11% 74%	2.79	UPSET
Sep 28	Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ NorthStars - Oram	1–7	16% 73%	0.45
Sep 27	Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone @ Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal	5–1	38% 46%	1.39
Sep 27	NorthStars - Oram @ Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian	8–3	62% 22%	0.68
Sep 27	Minuteman Flames - Hayes @ Spartans - Healey	1–9	28% 50%	1.00
Sep 21	Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone @ Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian	3–5	56% 26%	1.92
Sep 21	Northeast Generals - Ruggiero @ NorthStars - Oram	1–3	68% 18%	2.46
Sep 21	Minuteman Flames - Hayes @ Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal	5–3	30% 55%	1.75
Sep 21	Northeast Generals - Ruggiero @ Spartans - Healey	3–3	54% 20%	1.92
Sep 20	South Shore Kings - Lavery @ Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal	4–2	50/50	—
Sep 20	NorthStars - Oram @ Minuteman Flames - Hayes	5–1	37% 47% ⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample	1.44
Sep 20	Northern Cyclones - Bartlett @ Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian	6–1	50/50	—
Sep 14	South Shore Kings - Lavery @ Minuteman Flames - Hayes	2–4	50/50	—
Sep 14	NorthStars - Oram @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett	5–5	50/50	—
Sep 14	Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone @ Spartans - Healey	2–4	31% 40% ⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample	1.30
Sep 13	Northern Cyclones - Bartlett @ Spartans - Healey	1–2	50/50	—
Sep 13	Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone @ South Shore Kings - Lavery	4–3	50/50	—
Sep 13	NorthStars - Oram @ Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal	3–7	50/50	—
Sep 13	Minuteman Flames - Hayes @ Northeast Generals - Ruggiero	0–6	50/50	—
Sep 07	Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone @ Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal	3–2	50/50	—
Sep 07	NorthStars - Oram @ Spartans - Healey	2–2	50/50	—
Sep 06	South Shore Kings - Lavery @ Northeast Generals - Ruggiero	0–6	50/50	—
Sep 06	Northern Cyclones - Bartlett @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone	6–3	50/50	—
Sep 06	Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian @ Minuteman Flames - Hayes	2–6	50/50	—
Aug 01	South Shore Kings - Lavery @ Spartans - Healey	0–0	50/50	—
Aug 01	Spartans - Healey @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone	0–0	50/50	—
Aug 01	Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian @ Spartans - Healey	0–0	50/50	—
Aug 01	Northeast Generals - Ruggiero @ Spartans - Healey	0–0	50/50	—
Aug 01	NorthStars - Oram @ Top Gun - Rome	0–0	50/50	—