The Sheet

What is Surprisal? Surprisal measures how surprising a result was, based on pre-game probabilities. 0 bits = perfectly predicted. 3+ bits = major upset. A result is flagged as an UPSET when surprisal exceeds 2.5 bits.

Standings

# Team GP W L T GF GA PTS
1 NorthStars - Oram 35 20 9 6 138 95 46
2 Northeast Generals - Ruggiero 34 19 7 8 155 92 46
3 Northern Cyclones - Bartlett 36 20 11 5 156 117 45
4 Spartans - Healey 31 16 4 11 110 69 43
5 Minuteman Flames - Hayes 35 17 13 5 110 110 39
6 Top Gun - Rome 28 16 10 2 101 71 34
7 Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal 35 13 18 4 109 126 30
8 Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone 34 10 20 4 90 137 24
9 South Shore Kings - Lavery 34 9 23 2 75 129 20
10 Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian 34 3 28 3 89 187 9

Game Log

Date Matchup Score Pre-game Probability Surprisal Flag
Feb 22 Northern Cyclones - Bartlett @ Spartans - Healey 2–4
38.6%
47.6%
1.07
Feb 22 Minuteman Flames - Hayes @ South Shore Kings - Lavery 10–3
57.8%
28.4%
0.79
Feb 22 Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett 6–5
24.8%
61.4%
2.01
Feb 22 Top Gun - Rome @ Minuteman Flames - Hayes 4–2
68.0%
18.1%
0.56
Feb 22 Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ Top Gun - Rome 4–1
13.6%
72.6%
2.88 UPSET
Feb 22 Northeast Generals - Ruggiero @ Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian 5–5
77.0%
9.2%
2.86 UPSET
Feb 21 NorthStars - Oram @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone 8–1
62.2%
25.2%
0.68
Feb 21 Spartans - Healey @ Minuteman Flames - Hayes 4–4
60.6%
26.8%
2.99 UPSET
Feb 21 Northeast Generals - Ruggiero @ Top Gun - Rome 3–3
35.0%
52.5%
2.99 UPSET
Feb 21 Northern Cyclones - Bartlett @ South Shore Kings - Lavery 3–2
68.5%
18.9%
0.55
Feb 21 Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ Northeast Generals - Ruggiero 3–3
18.6%
68.8%
2.99 UPSET
Feb 21 Top Gun - Rome @ Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian 6–1
81.3%
6.1%
0.30
Feb 20 Top Gun - Rome @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett 3–6
62.4%
25.0%
2.00
Feb 15 Northern Cyclones - Bartlett @ Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal 4–2
61.3%
25.9%
0.71
Feb 15 NorthStars - Oram @ Northeast Generals - Ruggiero 7–4
32.0%
55.1%
1.64
Feb 15 Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian @ Top Gun - Rome 3–8
5.9%
81.3%
0.30
Feb 14 Northern Cyclones - Bartlett @ NorthStars - Oram 3–3
48.0%
39.4%
2.99
Feb 14 Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone 4–5
26.6%
60.9%
0.72
Feb 14 Northern Cyclones - Bartlett @ NorthStars - Oram 1–6
48.0%
39.4%
1.34
Feb 14 Top Gun - Rome @ Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal 2–5
76.7%
10.7%
3.23 UPSET
Feb 08 South Shore Kings - Lavery @ NorthStars - Oram 1–2
21.5%
65.5%
0.61
Feb 08 Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ Spartans - Healey 1–2
20.7%
66.3%
0.59
Feb 08 Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone @ Northeast Generals - Ruggiero 1–4
17.8%
69.2%
0.53
Feb 08 Northern Cyclones - Bartlett @ Top Gun - Rome 2–5
26.3%
60.8%
0.72
Feb 08 Minuteman Flames - Hayes @ Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian 3–1
66.5%
20.5%
0.59
Feb 07 Northeast Generals - Ruggiero @ Minuteman Flames - Hayes 1–2
65.0%
21.8%
2.20
Feb 07 Top Gun - Rome @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone 2–5
77.7%
9.1%
3.45 UPSET
Feb 07 Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian @ Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal 8–7
24.4%
62.4%
2.04
Feb 01 South Shore Kings - Lavery @ Top Gun - Rome 2–5
7.1%
80.0%
0.32
Feb 01 NorthStars - Oram @ Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian 6–1
73.4%
13.7%
0.45
Feb 01 Spartans - Healey @ Northeast Generals - Ruggiero 2–2
38.3%
48.8%
2.95
Feb 01 Minuteman Flames - Hayes @ Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal 5–2
49.2%
37.9%
1.02
Jan 31 Northeast Generals - Ruggiero @ Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal 5–1
68.7%
18.0%
0.54
Jan 31 Minuteman Flames - Hayes @ Spartans - Healey 0–3
26.3%
60.5%
0.73
Jan 31 Northern Cyclones - Bartlett @ South Shore Kings - Lavery 5–6
71.2%
15.6%
2.68 UPSET
Jan 31 Top Gun - Rome @ NorthStars - Oram 3–1
68.4%
18.4%
0.55
Jan 25 South Shore Kings - Lavery @ NorthStars - Oram 1–7
23.6%
63.1%
0.66
Jan 24 Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett 2–9
10.9%
75.4%
0.41
Jan 24 Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ South Shore Kings - Lavery 3–2
50.2%
36.1%
0.99
Jan 24 NorthStars - Oram @ Minuteman Flames - Hayes 1–4
53.4%
32.9%
1.60
Jan 24 Spartans - Healey @ Top Gun - Rome 1–5
27.1%
59.2%
0.76
Jan 23 Northern Cyclones - Bartlett @ Top Gun - Rome 6–5
20.9%
65.3%
2.26
Jan 18 Minuteman Flames - Hayes @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone 2–2
50.8%
36.0%
2.92
Jan 17 South Shore Kings - Lavery @ Minuteman Flames - Hayes 4–4
31.5%
55.9%
2.99 UPSET
Jan 11 Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone 3–3
46.6%
41.1%
3.02
Jan 11 Spartans - Healey @ NorthStars - Oram 6–3
52.9%
34.8%
0.92
Jan 11 Top Gun - Rome @ Minuteman Flames - Hayes 1–3
77.8%
9.9%
3.33 UPSET
Jan 11 Northeast Generals - Ruggiero @ South Shore Kings - Lavery 7–4
73.7%
14.0%
0.44
Jan 11 Northern Cyclones - Bartlett @ Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian 4–1
75.8%
11.9%
0.40
Jan 10 Northern Cyclones - Bartlett @ Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal 7–1
61.1%
27.1%
0.71
Jan 10 Minuteman Flames - Hayes @ NorthStars - Oram 2–2
30.8%
57.3%
3.08 UPSET
Jan 10 Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone @ Spartans - Healey 0–6
21.2%
66.9%
0.58
Jan 04 Top Gun - Rome @ NorthStars - Oram 1–2
73.0%
14.9%
2.74 UPSET
Jan 04 Spartans - Healey @ Minuteman Flames - Hayes 3–0
61.1%
26.8%
0.71
Jan 04 Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian 4–2
63.5%
24.4%
0.66
Jan 03 Top Gun - Rome @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone 6–1
80.5%
7.7%
0.31
Jan 03 NorthStars - Oram @ Spartans - Healey 2–2
38.1%
50.2%
3.09
Jan 03 Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ Minuteman Flames - Hayes 5–2
36.9%
51.4%
1.44
Jan 03 Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian @ Northeast Generals - Ruggiero 1–4
8.5%
79.8%
0.33
Dec 28 Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone 3–11
30.0%
58.8%
0.76
Dec 28 Northeast Generals - Ruggiero @ Top Gun - Rome 1–4
25.4%
63.4%
0.66
Dec 28 Spartans - Healey @ South Shore Kings - Lavery 2–2
72.4%
16.4%
3.16 UPSET
Dec 27 Northeast Generals - Ruggiero @ Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal 6–2
70.4%
18.2%
0.51
Dec 27 South Shore Kings - Lavery @ Top Gun - Rome 1–4
6.0%
82.6%
0.28
Dec 27 Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone @ Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian 8–3
55.2%
33.3%
0.86
Dec 21 Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone @ South Shore Kings - Lavery 1–2
46.1%
42.1%
1.25
Dec 21 Top Gun - Rome @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett 0–2
73.1%
15.1%
2.72 UPSET
Dec 21 Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ Minuteman Flames - Hayes 3–4
39.3%
49.0%
1.03
Dec 20 NorthStars - Oram @ Top Gun - Rome 3–5
13.7%
74.9%
0.42
Dec 20 South Shore Kings - Lavery @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett 4–3
17.6%
71.0%
2.50 UPSET
Dec 20 Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian @ Minuteman Flames - Hayes 2–8
26.2%
62.4%
0.68
Dec 20 Northeast Generals - Ruggiero @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone 10–3
73.0%
15.6%
0.45
Dec 20 Spartans - Healey @ Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal 2–2
66.7%
21.9%
3.13 UPSET
Dec 14 Spartans - Healey @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone 3–3
70.4%
18.6%
3.18 UPSET
Dec 14 Minuteman Flames - Hayes @ South Shore Kings - Lavery 1–0
55.2%
33.8%
0.86
Dec 14 Northeast Generals - Ruggiero @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett 11–2
45.0%
44.0%
1.15
Dec 14 Top Gun - Rome @ Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian 3–2
85.8%
3.2%
0.22
Dec 14 NorthStars - Oram @ Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal 3–2
61.4%
27.6%
0.70
Dec 13 Northeast Generals - Ruggiero @ NorthStars - Oram 7–4
48.8%
39.6%
1.03
Dec 13 Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone @ Minuteman Flames - Hayes 3–7
42.3%
46.1%
1.12
Dec 13 Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett 4–7
11.8%
76.6%
0.38
Dec 13 Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ Top Gun - Rome 0–4
8.0%
80.4%
0.31
Dec 13 South Shore Kings - Lavery @ Spartans - Healey 0–7
20.4%
68.0%
0.56
Dec 07 Minuteman Flames - Hayes @ Top Gun - Rome 3–1
5.1%
82.9%
4.29 UPSET
Dec 07 Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian @ South Shore Kings - Lavery 1–2
34.2%
53.8%
0.90
Dec 07 Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ Northeast Generals - Ruggiero 4–5
22.6%
65.4%
0.61
Dec 07 Spartans - Healey @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett 4–2
37.6%
50.4%
1.41
Dec 06 Northern Cyclones - Bartlett @ Minuteman Flames - Hayes 6–5
71.1%
17.4%
0.49
Dec 06 Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ NorthStars - Oram 4–2
24.8%
63.7%
2.01
Dec 06 Northeast Generals - Ruggiero @ South Shore Kings - Lavery 4–0
69.6%
18.9%
0.52
Dec 06 Spartans - Healey @ Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian 2–2
75.2%
13.4%
3.13 UPSET
Nov 30 Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian @ NorthStars - Oram 4–5
12.5%
76.6%
0.38
Nov 30 Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ South Shore Kings - Lavery 6–2
45.5%
43.7%
1.14
Nov 30 Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone @ Top Gun - Rome 1–7
6.8%
82.4%
0.28
Nov 30 Northeast Generals - Ruggiero @ Minuteman Flames - Hayes 4–4
69.8%
19.4%
3.20 UPSET
Nov 29 Northeast Generals - Ruggiero @ Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian 8–5
79.3%
11.6%
0.33
Nov 29 NorthStars - Oram @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone 2–2
67.2%
23.7%
3.46 UPSET
Nov 29 Top Gun - Rome @ South Shore Kings - Lavery 4–2
84.3%
6.7%
0.25
Nov 29 Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett 4–4
18.8%
72.1%
3.46 UPSET
Nov 23 Spartans - Healey @ NorthStars - Oram 5–6
43.7%
46.7%
1.10
Nov 23 South Shore Kings - Lavery @ Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian 4–3
61.2%
29.2%
0.71
Nov 23 Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett 2–6
21.5%
69.0%
0.54
Nov 23 Top Gun - Rome @ Northeast Generals - Ruggiero 2–5
77.9%
12.6%
2.99 UPSET
Nov 22 Northeast Generals - Ruggiero @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett 2–4
45.5%
45.7%
1.13
Nov 22 Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone 2–1
40.8%
50.4%
1.29
Nov 22 Spartans - Healey @ Top Gun - Rome 2–2
9.8%
81.5%
3.51 UPSET
Nov 22 NorthStars - Oram @ South Shore Kings - Lavery 4–2
69.4%
21.8%
0.53
Nov 16 Spartans - Healey @ Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian 9–2
76.3%
14.6%
0.39
Nov 16 Northeast Generals - Ruggiero @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone 7–0
62.5%
28.5%
0.68
Nov 16 South Shore Kings - Lavery @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett 3–4
18.8%
72.1%
0.47
Nov 15 Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett 2–5
26.3%
64.3%
0.64
Nov 15 Spartans - Healey @ Northeast Generals - Ruggiero 3–1
37.9%
52.7%
1.40
Nov 15 Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian @ Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal 0–2
34.5%
56.1%
0.83
Nov 09 Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian @ NorthStars - Oram 1–6
16.2%
73.9%
0.44
Nov 09 Top Gun - Rome @ Spartans - Healey 5–2
81.3%
8.9%
0.30
Nov 09 Northern Cyclones - Bartlett @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone 7–1
57.0%
33.2%
0.81
Nov 08 Spartans - Healey @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett 3–2
41.6%
48.0%
1.27
Nov 08 South Shore Kings - Lavery @ Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian 4–2
53.1%
36.4%
0.91
Nov 08 Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone @ NorthStars - Oram 1–2
37.8%
51.8%
0.95
Nov 08 Minuteman Flames - Hayes @ Northeast Generals - Ruggiero 3–5
20.3%
69.2%
0.53
Nov 02 Spartans - Healey @ Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal 5–3
69.0%
21.6%
0.53
Nov 02 Northern Cyclones - Bartlett @ Northeast Generals - Ruggiero 4–4
45.9%
44.8%
3.42
Nov 02 Minuteman Flames - Hayes @ NorthStars - Oram 0–3
27.6%
63.0%
0.67
Nov 01 Northern Cyclones - Bartlett @ Minuteman Flames - Hayes 5–0
62.8%
27.0%
0.67
Nov 01 NorthStars - Oram @ Northeast Generals - Ruggiero 4–5
41.3%
48.6%
1.04
Nov 01 Spartans - Healey @ South Shore Kings - Lavery 2–0
64.6%
25.2%
0.63
Nov 01 NorthStars - Oram @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett 2–6
48.7%
41.1%
1.28
Oct 26 Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian @ South Shore Kings - Lavery 4–2
30.9%
58.8%
1.69
Oct 25 South Shore Kings - Lavery @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone 1–3
35.3%
53.5%
0.90
Oct 19 Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone @ NorthStars - Oram 1–4
34.2%
54.1%
0.89
Oct 19 Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian @ Northeast Generals - Ruggiero 1–6
15.9%
72.3%
0.47
Oct 18 Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone @ Minuteman Flames - Hayes 2–0
58.2%
30.9%
0.78
Oct 18 Northern Cyclones - Bartlett @ Northeast Generals - Ruggiero 3–3
42.5%
46.7%
3.20
Oct 18 South Shore Kings - Lavery @ Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal 4–1
43.0%
46.1%
1.22
Oct 12 Minuteman Flames - Hayes @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett 2–6
20.2%
68.2%
0.55
Oct 12 Minuteman Flames - Hayes @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett 4–3
20.2%
68.2%
2.31
Oct 11 South Shore Kings - Lavery @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone 2–4
36.8%
51.3%
0.96
Oct 05 Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian 6–4
53.3%
32.7%
0.91
Oct 05 Minuteman Flames - Hayes @ Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian 6–2
44.9%
39.6%
1.15
Oct 05 South Shore Kings - Lavery @ Northeast Generals - Ruggiero 4–2
2.8%
91.5%
5.16 UPSET
Oct 04 Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ Spartans - Healey 5–2
4.8%
88.9%
4.39 UPSET
Oct 04 NorthStars - Oram @ South Shore Kings - Lavery 5–0
81.6%
9.9%
0.29
Oct 04 Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone @ Northeast Generals - Ruggiero 1–5
5.2%
88.3%
0.18
Sep 28 Minuteman Flames - Hayes @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone 3–2
23.4%
64.8%
2.09
Sep 28 Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian @ Spartans - Healey 4–4
1.5%
95.9%
5.25 UPSET
Sep 28 Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ NorthStars - Oram 1–7
9.2%
82.8%
0.27
Sep 27 Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone @ Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal 5–1
53.0%
33.3%
0.92
Sep 27 NorthStars - Oram @ Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian 8–3
91.3%
4.2%
0.13
Sep 27 Minuteman Flames - Hayes @ Spartans - Healey 1–9
13.2%
73.7%
0.44
Sep 21 Northeast Generals - Ruggiero @ NorthStars - Oram 1–3
97.5%
1.0%
6.61 UPSET
Sep 21 Minuteman Flames - Hayes @ Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal 5–3
34.4%
46.7%
1.54
Sep 21 Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone @ Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian 3–5
97.8%
1.0%
6.71 UPSET
Sep 20 Northeast Generals - Ruggiero @ Spartans - Healey 3–3 50/50 —
Sep 20 South Shore Kings - Lavery @ Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal 4–2
5.2%
82.3% ⚠
4.27 UPSET
Sep 20 NorthStars - Oram @ Minuteman Flames - Hayes 5–1
29.7%
57.8% ⚠
1.75
Sep 20 Northern Cyclones - Bartlett @ Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian 6–1 50/50 —
Sep 14 South Shore Kings - Lavery @ Minuteman Flames - Hayes 2–4 50/50 —
Sep 14 NorthStars - Oram @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett 5–5 50/50 —
Sep 14 Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone @ Spartans - Healey 2–4 50/50 —
Sep 13 Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone @ South Shore Kings - Lavery 4–3 50/50 —
Sep 13 Northern Cyclones - Bartlett @ Spartans - Healey 1–2 50/50 —
Sep 13 NorthStars - Oram @ Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal 3–7 50/50 —
Sep 13 Minuteman Flames - Hayes @ Northeast Generals - Ruggiero 0–6 50/50 —
Sep 07 Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone @ Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal 3–2 50/50 —
Sep 07 NorthStars - Oram @ Spartans - Healey 2–2 50/50 —
Sep 06 South Shore Kings - Lavery @ Northeast Generals - Ruggiero 0–6 50/50 —
Sep 06 Northern Cyclones - Bartlett @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone 6–3 50/50 —
Sep 06 Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian @ Minuteman Flames - Hayes 2–6 50/50 —