The Sheet

What is Surprisal? Surprisal measures how surprising a result was, based on pre-game probabilities. 0 bits = perfectly predicted. 3+ bits = major upset. A result is flagged as an UPSET when surprisal exceeds 2.5 bits.

Standings

# Team GP W L T GF GA PTS
1 Manchester Flames - Engvik 34 28 4 2 252 84 58
2 Minuteman Flames - Welsh 35 28 6 1 233 127 57
3 Shamrocks - Hamilton 34 20 8 6 129 115 46
4 Boch Blazers - Connors 36 19 15 2 153 118 40
5 Northeast Generals - Rollock 35 14 18 3 121 121 31
6 IHC West - Proulx 36 13 20 3 111 149 29
7 BOSTON VIPERS 2012 - PALMER 35 9 26 0 111 209 18
8 Top Gun - Rome 7 7 0 0 78 10 14
9 Boch Blazers - Black 36 4 28 4 74 240 12
10 Northern Cyclones - Chiulli 34 3 29 2 62 198 8
11 Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone 2 2 0 0 18 3 4
12 Minuteman Flames - Hayes 2 1 0 1 9 1 3
13 South Shore Kings - Lavery 1 1 0 0 7 0 2
14 Northern Cyclones - Bartlett 1 1 0 0 6 0 2
15 Spartans - Healey 1 1 0 0 6 1 2
16 Northeast Generals - Ruggiero 1 1 0 0 5 1 2
17 NorthStars - Oram 1 1 0 0 3 1 2
18 Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian 1 1 0 0 4 3 2
19 Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal 2 1 1 0 7 8 2

Game Log

Date Matchup Score Pre-game Probability Surprisal Flag
Feb 22 Boch Blazers - Connors @ Northeast Generals - Rollock 4–1
56.8%
35.8%
0.82
Feb 22 Shamrocks - Hamilton @ IHC West - Proulx 4–1
63.6%
29.1%
0.65
Feb 22 Minuteman Flames - Welsh @ Northern Cyclones - Chiulli 8–2
90.4%
2.2%
0.15
Feb 22 Boch Blazers - Black @ BOSTON VIPERS 2012 - PALMER 5–4
20.7%
71.9%
2.27
Feb 21 Northeast Generals - Rollock @ IHC West - Proulx 4–1
58.7%
33.8%
0.77
Feb 21 Shamrocks - Hamilton @ Northern Cyclones - Chiulli 8–1
85.4%
7.1%
0.23
Feb 21 BOSTON VIPERS 2012 - PALMER @ Minuteman Flames - Welsh 2–9
6.8%
85.7%
0.22
Feb 20 Boch Blazers - Connors @ Boch Blazers - Black 6–0
88.2%
4.2%
0.18
Feb 20 Shamrocks - Hamilton @ Northern Cyclones - Chiulli 6–2
85.0%
7.4%
0.24
Feb 15 Boch Blazers - Connors @ Northern Cyclones - Chiulli 10–2
86.1%
6.1%
0.22
Feb 15 BOSTON VIPERS 2012 - PALMER @ IHC West - Proulx 4–1
25.9%
66.4%
1.95
Feb 15 Northern Cyclones - Chiulli @ Boch Blazers - Connors 1–8
6.1%
86.1%
0.22
Feb 14 Northern Cyclones - Chiulli @ Northeast Generals - Rollock 0–2
7.5%
84.7%
0.24
Feb 14 Boch Blazers - Connors @ BOSTON VIPERS 2012 - PALMER 8–1
75.7%
16.5%
0.40
Feb 08 IHC West - Proulx @ Northeast Generals - Rollock 0–0
34.8%
57.9%
3.77 UPSET
Feb 08 Minuteman Flames - Welsh @ BOSTON VIPERS 2012 - PALMER 7–0
86.1%
6.6%
0.22
Feb 08 Boch Blazers - Connors @ Manchester Flames - Engvik 0–3
7.9%
84.8%
0.24
Feb 07 BOSTON VIPERS 2012 - PALMER @ Boch Blazers - Black 1–4
77.7%
15.5%
2.69 UPSET
Feb 07 Northern Cyclones - Chiulli @ IHC West - Proulx 5–3
9.9%
83.2%
3.33 UPSET
Feb 07 Boch Blazers - Connors @ Minuteman Flames - Welsh 2–9
27.5%
65.7%
0.61
Feb 07 Shamrocks - Hamilton @ Northeast Generals - Rollock 2–2
47.5%
45.6%
3.87
Feb 01 Northern Cyclones - Chiulli @ Boch Blazers - Black 1–1
53.6%
40.1%
3.99
Feb 01 IHC West - Proulx @ Minuteman Flames - Welsh 0–4
14.8%
78.9%
0.34
Feb 01 Boch Blazers - Connors @ BOSTON VIPERS 2012 - PALMER 9–0
75.0%
18.7%
0.41
Jan 31 Minuteman Flames - Welsh @ IHC West - Proulx 5–3
78.1%
15.5%
0.36
Jan 31 Northern Cyclones - Chiulli @ BOSTON VIPERS 2012 - PALMER 1–7
19.9%
73.7%
0.44
Jan 24 Northern Cyclones - Chiulli @ Boch Blazers - Black 3–6
62.9%
31.2%
1.68
Jan 24 Shamrocks - Hamilton @ Boch Blazers - Connors 0–0
44.2%
50.0%
4.10
Jan 24 Manchester Flames - Engvik @ BOSTON VIPERS 2012 - PALMER 12–0
92.4%
1.7%
0.11
Jan 24 Northern Cyclones - Chiulli @ Minuteman Flames - Welsh 0–9
1.9%
92.3%
0.12
Jan 23 Manchester Flames - Engvik @ Northern Cyclones - Chiulli 7–1
93.6%
0.5%
0.09
Jan 18 Minuteman Flames - Welsh @ Boch Blazers - Black 6–4
93.0%
1.0%
0.10
Jan 18 IHC West - Proulx @ BOSTON VIPERS 2012 - PALMER 4–3
64.4%
29.6%
0.63
Jan 17 Northeast Generals - Rollock @ Shamrocks - Hamilton 3–4
47.0%
46.9%
1.09
Jan 17 BOSTON VIPERS 2012 - PALMER @ Minuteman Flames - Welsh 3–10
9.4%
84.5%
0.24
Jan 17 Manchester Flames - Engvik @ Boch Blazers - Black 11–2
93.6%
0.3%
0.09
Jan 11 IHC West - Proulx @ Shamrocks - Hamilton 2–4
37.8%
56.0%
0.84
Jan 11 Northern Cyclones - Chiulli @ IHC West - Proulx 2–1
8.3%
85.5%
3.60 UPSET
Jan 11 Boch Blazers - Black @ Northeast Generals - Rollock 1–6
3.0%
90.7%
0.14
Jan 10 BOSTON VIPERS 2012 - PALMER @ Shamrocks - Hamilton 2–3
23.2%
70.4%
0.51
Jan 10 Boch Blazers - Connors @ IHC West - Proulx 5–3
58.3%
35.3%
0.78
Jan 10 Northern Cyclones - Chiulli @ Northeast Generals - Rollock 3–4
6.0%
87.6%
0.19
Jan 04 Northeast Generals - Rollock @ BOSTON VIPERS 2012 - PALMER 5–2
68.0%
26.3%
0.56
Jan 04 Boch Blazers - Black @ Boch Blazers - Connors 0–6
3.0%
91.2%
0.13
Jan 04 Manchester Flames - Engvik @ IHC West - Proulx 3–3
90.1%
4.1%
4.12 UPSET
Jan 03 Manchester Flames - Engvik @ Boch Blazers - Connors 4–2
87.4%
6.7%
0.19
Jan 03 Northeast Generals - Rollock @ Minuteman Flames - Welsh 5–7
20.7%
73.4%
0.45
Jan 03 BOSTON VIPERS 2012 - PALMER @ Manchester Flames - Engvik 1–11
2.6%
91.5%
0.13
Jan 02 Boch Blazers - Connors @ Boch Blazers - Black 10–2
90.3%
3.8%
0.15
Dec 28 IHC West - Proulx @ Northern Cyclones - Chiulli 5–3
86.1%
7.8%
0.22
Dec 28 Shamrocks - Hamilton @ Boch Blazers - Black 4–1
90.0%
4.0%
0.15
Dec 28 Northeast Generals - Rollock @ Manchester Flames - Engvik 2–4
6.4%
87.6%
0.19
Dec 27 Manchester Flames - Engvik @ Boch Blazers - Connors 8–2
86.9%
7.6%
0.20
Dec 27 BOSTON VIPERS 2012 - PALMER @ Northern Cyclones - Chiulli 6–2
80.5%
14.1%
0.31
Dec 27 BOSTON VIPERS 2012 - PALMER @ Northern Cyclones - Chiulli 5–3
80.5%
14.1%
0.31
Dec 27 Northeast Generals - Rollock @ Shamrocks - Hamilton 1–4
51.3%
43.3%
1.21
Dec 27 Boch Blazers - Black @ IHC West - Proulx 2–2
5.6%
89.0%
4.20 UPSET
Dec 21 Manchester Flames - Engvik @ IHC West - Proulx 7–2
89.5%
4.9%
0.16
Dec 21 Boch Blazers - Black @ Northeast Generals - Rollock 1–4
3.3%
91.1%
0.13
Dec 21 Shamrocks - Hamilton @ Minuteman Flames - Welsh 1–9
25.9%
68.5%
0.55
Dec 20 BOSTON VIPERS 2012 - PALMER @ Boch Blazers - Black 4–6
85.9%
8.3%
3.59 UPSET
Dec 20 Boch Blazers - Connors @ Minuteman Flames - Welsh 5–10
30.5%
63.7%
0.65
Dec 20 Northeast Generals - Rollock @ IHC West - Proulx 1–6
59.0%
35.3%
1.50
Dec 14 Manchester Flames - Engvik @ Northeast Generals - Rollock 7–6
87.1%
7.0%
0.20
Dec 14 Northern Cyclones - Chiulli @ Shamrocks - Hamilton 0–2
5.1%
89.0%
0.17
Dec 14 IHC West - Proulx @ Minuteman Flames - Welsh 0–7
23.9%
70.1%
0.51
Dec 13 BOSTON VIPERS 2012 - PALMER @ Boch Blazers - Connors 2–5
20.9%
72.9%
0.46
Dec 13 Northeast Generals - Rollock @ Northern Cyclones - Chiulli 5–0
88.7%
5.0%
0.17
Dec 13 Shamrocks - Hamilton @ IHC West - Proulx 3–1
50.6%
43.2%
0.98
Dec 13 Manchester Flames - Engvik @ Minuteman Flames - Welsh 5–3
84.7%
9.0%
0.24
Dec 13 Manchester Flames - Engvik @ Minuteman Flames - Welsh 7–9
84.7%
9.0%
3.47 UPSET
Dec 07 Boch Blazers - Black @ BOSTON VIPERS 2012 - PALMER 2–4
6.5%
87.0%
0.20
Dec 07 Minuteman Flames - Welsh @ Boch Blazers - Connors 2–5
70.3%
23.3%
2.10
Dec 07 IHC West - Proulx @ Northern Cyclones - Chiulli 7–2
86.3%
7.2%
0.21
Dec 06 Boch Blazers - Connors @ Shamrocks - Hamilton 1–0
45.7%
47.6%
1.13
Dec 06 BOSTON VIPERS 2012 - PALMER @ IHC West - Proulx 3–4
29.1%
64.2%
0.64
Dec 06 Boch Blazers - Black @ Minuteman Flames - Welsh 5–9
0.7%
92.7%
0.11
Nov 30 Boch Blazers - Black @ IHC West - Proulx 1–4
3.6%
89.5%
0.16
Nov 30 Shamrocks - Hamilton @ Minuteman Flames - Welsh 2–5
28.0%
65.1%
0.62
Nov 30 Manchester Flames - Engvik @ Northeast Generals - Rollock 3–2
88.8%
4.3%
0.17
Nov 29 Shamrocks - Hamilton @ Boch Blazers - Black 3–1
90.9%
1.8%
0.14
Nov 29 Minuteman Flames - Welsh @ Northeast Generals - Rollock 5–2
60.1%
32.7%
0.73
Nov 29 Minuteman Flames - Welsh @ Northeast Generals - Rollock 5–2
60.1%
32.7%
0.73
Nov 29 Boch Blazers - Connors @ IHC West - Proulx 8–0
44.6%
48.2%
1.17
Nov 23 Boch Blazers - Black @ Manchester Flames - Engvik 2–6
0.1%
92.4%
0.11
Nov 23 BOSTON VIPERS 2012 - PALMER @ Boch Blazers - Connors 2–11
42.5%
50.0%
1.00
Nov 23 Northern Cyclones - Chiulli @ Northeast Generals - Rollock 0–2
6.0%
86.5%
0.21
Nov 22 IHC West - Proulx @ Boch Blazers - Connors 1–9
72.9%
19.3%
2.37
Nov 22 Manchester Flames - Engvik @ BOSTON VIPERS 2012 - PALMER 8–0
89.9%
2.3%
0.15
Nov 22 Northeast Generals - Rollock @ Boch Blazers - Black 11–0
89.2%
3.0%
0.17
Nov 16 Shamrocks - Hamilton @ BOSTON VIPERS 2012 - PALMER 7–6
63.4%
29.7%
0.66
Nov 16 Manchester Flames - Engvik @ IHC West - Proulx 7–1
86.1%
7.0%
0.22
Nov 16 Boch Blazers - Black @ Northern Cyclones - Chiulli 1–3
27.4%
65.7%
0.61
Nov 16 Northeast Generals - Rollock @ Boch Blazers - Connors 0–7
79.1%
13.9%
2.85 UPSET
Nov 16 Boch Blazers - Black @ Northern Cyclones - Chiulli 7–7
27.4%
65.7%
3.85 UPSET
Nov 15 IHC West - Proulx @ Boch Blazers - Black 7–1
93.3%
0.8%
0.10
Nov 15 Manchester Flames - Engvik @ Shamrocks - Hamilton 2–2
90.5%
3.6%
4.09 UPSET
Nov 15 Boch Blazers - Connors @ Minuteman Flames - Welsh 5–2
2.9%
91.2%
5.08 UPSET
Nov 15 BOSTON VIPERS 2012 - PALMER @ Northeast Generals - Rollock 6–3
21.6%
72.5%
2.21
Nov 09 Boch Blazers - Black @ Minuteman Flames - Welsh 0–14
0.4%
93.6%
0.10
Nov 09 IHC West - Proulx @ Shamrocks - Hamilton 4–5
50.1%
43.8%
1.19
Nov 08 Boch Blazers - Connors @ Northeast Generals - Rollock 7–0
1.5%
92.1%
6.11 UPSET
Nov 08 BOSTON VIPERS 2012 - PALMER @ Northern Cyclones - Chiulli 7–2
86.7%
6.8%
0.21
Nov 08 Minuteman Flames - Welsh @ Manchester Flames - Engvik 6–4
3.5%
90.0%
4.82 UPSET
Nov 08 Boch Blazers - Black @ IHC West - Proulx 2–4
0.7%
92.9%
0.11
Nov 02 Shamrocks - Hamilton @ Manchester Flames - Engvik 2–7
3.5%
89.7%
0.16
Nov 02 Minuteman Flames - Welsh @ IHC West - Proulx 8–4
52.4%
40.9%
0.93
Nov 02 Northeast Generals - Rollock @ BOSTON VIPERS 2012 - PALMER 3–9
88.8%
4.4%
4.51 UPSET
Nov 01 Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ Boch Blazers - Connors 3–5 50/50 —
Nov 01 Manchester Flames - Engvik @ Boch Blazers - Black 16–1
92.7%
0.0%
0.11
Nov 01 BOSTON VIPERS 2012 - PALMER @ Shamrocks - Hamilton 1–7
6.0%
86.7%
0.21
Nov 01 Northeast Generals - Rollock @ Minuteman Flames - Welsh 3–6
76.6%
16.1%
2.63 UPSET
Oct 26 Northern Cyclones - Chiulli @ Manchester Flames - Engvik 0–9
0.0%
92.4%
0.11
Oct 26 IHC West - Proulx @ BOSTON VIPERS 2012 - PALMER 6–5
89.5%
2.9%
0.16
Oct 25 Boch Blazers - Connors @ Northeast Generals - Ruggiero 1–5 50/50 —
Oct 25 Shamrocks - Hamilton @ Northeast Generals - Rollock 3–3
9.0%
84.8%
4.00 UPSET
Oct 25 Northern Cyclones - Chiulli @ Top Gun - Rome 0–7 50/50 —
Oct 25 IHC West - Proulx @ Manchester Flames - Engvik 0–9
7.4%
86.4%
0.21
Oct 25 Boch Blazers - Black @ Top Gun - Rome 0–14 50/50 —
Oct 19 Boch Blazers - Connors @ Minuteman Flames - Hayes 0–8 50/50 —
Oct 19 Boch Blazers - Black @ Minuteman Flames - Welsh 1–9
0.9%
92.5%
0.11
Oct 19 Manchester Flames - Engvik @ Shamrocks - Hamilton 12–3
89.4%
4.0%
0.16
Oct 18 Shamrocks - Hamilton @ Boch Blazers - Black 5–1
92.0%
0.5%
0.12
Oct 18 Boch Blazers - Connors @ NorthStars - Oram 1–3 50/50 —
Oct 18 Top Gun - Rome @ Manchester Flames - Engvik 12–6 50/50 —
Oct 18 Northern Cyclones - Chiulli @ IHC West - Proulx 3–8
0.4%
92.1%
0.12
Oct 18 Minuteman Flames - Welsh @ BOSTON VIPERS 2012 - PALMER 6–2
86.1%
6.4%
0.22
Oct 12 Northeast Generals - Rollock @ Manchester Flames - Engvik 3–6
5.4%
86.5%
0.21
Oct 12 Boch Blazers - Connors @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone 1–6 50/50 —
Oct 12 Northern Cyclones - Chiulli @ Shamrocks - Hamilton 3–4
0.4%
91.5%
0.13
Oct 11 IHC West - Proulx @ Manchester Flames - Engvik 1–7
6.3%
84.9%
0.24
Oct 11 Northeast Generals - Rollock @ Boch Blazers - Black 7–0
90.8%
0.4%
0.14
Oct 11 Minuteman Flames - Welsh @ Shamrocks - Hamilton 7–3
23.7%
67.5%
2.08
Oct 05 Top Gun - Rome @ Northern Cyclones - Chiulli 10–0 50/50 —
Oct 05 Northeast Generals - Rollock @ Shamrocks - Hamilton 3–6
86.7%
3.9%
4.68 UPSET
Oct 04 Minuteman Flames - Welsh @ Boch Blazers - Black 8–3
89.0%
3.9%
0.17
Oct 04 Minuteman Flames - Hayes @ Boch Blazers - Connors 1–1 50/50 —
Oct 04 Shamrocks - Hamilton @ Manchester Flames - Engvik 4–9
0.6%
92.3%
0.12
Oct 04 Northern Cyclones - Chiulli @ BOSTON VIPERS 2012 - PALMER 5–6
10.0%
82.9%
0.27
Sep 28 Boch Blazers - Black @ Manchester Flames - Engvik 0–17
0.1%
92.3%
0.12
Sep 28 Shamrocks - Hamilton @ Northern Cyclones - Chiulli 5–0
92.0%
0.3%
0.12
Sep 27 Boch Blazers - Connors @ South Shore Kings - Lavery 0–7 50/50 —
Sep 27 Minuteman Flames - Welsh @ Top Gun - Rome 1–19 50/50 —
Sep 27 Boch Blazers - Black @ Shamrocks - Hamilton 3–3
2.8%
92.4%
4.39 UPSET
Sep 27 IHC West - Proulx @ Northeast Generals - Rollock 2–5
63.6%
31.7%
1.66
Sep 27 Northern Cyclones - Chiulli @ Manchester Flames - Engvik 2–10 50/50 —
Sep 21 Shamrocks - Hamilton @ BOSTON VIPERS 2012 - PALMER 9–2
71.3%
22.9% ⚠
0.49
Sep 21 Minuteman Flames - Welsh @ Manchester Flames - Engvik 1–8
27.8%
66.4% ⚠
0.59
Sep 21 Northeast Generals - Rollock @ Northern Cyclones - Chiulli 5–3 50/50 —
Sep 21 Boch Blazers - Connors @ Spartans - Healey 1–6 50/50 —
Sep 20 IHC West - Proulx @ Boch Blazers - Black 7–2 50/50 —
Sep 20 Minuteman Flames - Welsh @ Shamrocks - Hamilton 5–5 50/50 —
Sep 20 BOSTON VIPERS 2012 - PALMER @ Northeast Generals - Rollock 1–4 50/50 —
Sep 20 Top Gun - Rome @ Manchester Flames - Engvik 5–2 50/50 —
Sep 20 Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone @ Boch Blazers - Connors 12–2 50/50 —
Sep 14 Minuteman Flames - Welsh @ BOSTON VIPERS 2012 - PALMER 11–7 50/50 —
Sep 14 Boch Blazers - Connors @ Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal 3–4 50/50 —
Sep 13 Northeast Generals - Rollock @ Boch Blazers - Black 9–2 50/50 —
Sep 13 Top Gun - Rome @ Shamrocks - Hamilton 11–1 50/50 —
Sep 13 Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian @ Boch Blazers - Connors 4–3 50/50 —
Sep 13 Northern Cyclones - Chiulli @ Minuteman Flames - Welsh 0–7 50/50 —
Sep 07 IHC West - Proulx @ BOSTON VIPERS 2012 - PALMER 9–3 50/50 —
Sep 07 Minuteman Flames - Welsh @ Manchester Flames - Engvik 4–8 50/50 —
Sep 07 Boch Blazers - Connors @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett 0–6 50/50 —
Sep 06 Boch Blazers - Black @ Shamrocks - Hamilton 4–5 50/50 —
Sep 06 BOSTON VIPERS 2012 - PALMER @ Manchester Flames - Engvik 0–7 50/50 —
Sep 06 IHC West - Proulx @ Northeast Generals - Rollock 4–3 50/50 —