Season Review

What is Surprisal? Surprisal measures how surprising a result was, based on pre-game probabilities. 0 bits = perfectly predicted. 3+ bits = major upset. A result is flagged as an UPSET when surprisal exceeds 2.5 bits.

Standings

# Team GP W L T GF GA PTS
1 Manchester Flames - Engvik 32 28 2 2 244 67 58
2 Minuteman Flames - Welsh 34 28 5 1 232 108 57
3 Shamrocks - Hamilton 33 20 7 6 128 104 46
4 Boch Blazers - Connors 24 18 5 1 135 53 37
5 Northeast Generals - Rollock 35 14 18 3 121 121 31
6 IHC West - Proulx 36 13 20 3 111 149 29
7 BOSTON VIPERS 2012 - PALMER 35 9 26 0 111 209 18
8 Boch Blazers - Black 35 4 27 4 74 226 12
9 Northern Cyclones - Chiulli 32 3 27 2 62 181 8

Game Log

Date Matchup Score Pre-game Probability Surprisal Flag
Feb 22 Minuteman Flames - Welsh @ Northern Cyclones - Chiulli 8–2
99.2%
0.3%
0.01
Feb 22 Boch Blazers - Connors @ Northeast Generals - Rollock 4–1
83.0%
7.8%
0.27
Feb 22 Boch Blazers - Black @ BOSTON VIPERS 2012 - PALMER 5–4
19.2%
69.1%
2.38
Feb 22 Shamrocks - Hamilton @ IHC West - Proulx 4–1
58.9%
24.8%
0.76
Feb 21 Northeast Generals - Rollock @ IHC West - Proulx 4–1
50.5%
32.1%
0.99
Feb 21 Shamrocks - Hamilton @ Northern Cyclones - Chiulli 8–1
86.4%
5.7%
0.21
Feb 21 BOSTON VIPERS 2012 - PALMER @ Minuteman Flames - Welsh 2–9
1.5%
96.8%
0.05
Feb 20 Boch Blazers - Connors @ Boch Blazers - Black 6–0
99.0%
0.3%
0.01
Feb 20 Shamrocks - Hamilton @ Northern Cyclones - Chiulli 6–2
85.9%
5.9%
0.22
Feb 15 Boch Blazers - Connors @ Northern Cyclones - Chiulli 10–2
98.3%
0.5%
0.02
Feb 15 BOSTON VIPERS 2012 - PALMER @ IHC West - Proulx 4–1
26.4%
60.3%
1.92
Feb 15 Northern Cyclones - Chiulli @ Boch Blazers - Connors 1–8
0.5%
98.3%
0.02
Feb 14 Northern Cyclones - Chiulli @ Northeast Generals - Rollock 0–2
7.8%
83.0%
0.27
Feb 14 Boch Blazers - Connors @ BOSTON VIPERS 2012 - PALMER 8–1
96.5%
1.4%
0.05
Feb 08 Boch Blazers - Connors @ Manchester Flames - Engvik 0–3
28.8%
56.4%
0.83
Feb 08 IHC West - Proulx @ Northeast Generals - Rollock 0–0
33.2%
50.4%
2.61 UPSET
Feb 08 Minuteman Flames - Welsh @ BOSTON VIPERS 2012 - PALMER 7–0
96.9%
1.5%
0.05
Feb 07 BOSTON VIPERS 2012 - PALMER @ Boch Blazers - Black 1–4
74.2%
15.8%
2.66 UPSET
Feb 07 Northern Cyclones - Chiulli @ IHC West - Proulx 5–3
9.1%
80.7%
3.46 UPSET
Feb 07 Boch Blazers - Connors @ Minuteman Flames - Welsh 2–9
63.7%
23.4%
2.09
Feb 07 Shamrocks - Hamilton @ Northeast Generals - Rollock 2–2
47.0%
35.4%
2.51
Feb 01 Northern Cyclones - Chiulli @ Boch Blazers - Black 1–1
38.4%
44.1%
2.51
Feb 01 IHC West - Proulx @ Minuteman Flames - Welsh 0–4
7.8%
85.9%
0.22
Feb 01 Boch Blazers - Connors @ BOSTON VIPERS 2012 - PALMER 9–0
96.7%
1.4%
0.05
Jan 31 Minuteman Flames - Welsh @ IHC West - Proulx 5–3
86.8%
7.3%
0.20
Jan 31 Northern Cyclones - Chiulli @ BOSTON VIPERS 2012 - PALMER 1–7
17.2%
71.4%
0.49
Jan 24 Northern Cyclones - Chiulli @ Boch Blazers - Black 3–6
47.2%
37.7%
1.41
Jan 24 Shamrocks - Hamilton @ Boch Blazers - Connors 0–0
9.8%
82.1%
3.62 UPSET
Jan 24 Manchester Flames - Engvik @ BOSTON VIPERS 2012 - PALMER 12–0
98.8%
0.5%
0.02
Jan 24 Northern Cyclones - Chiulli @ Minuteman Flames - Welsh 0–9
0.7%
98.4%
0.02
Jan 23 Manchester Flames - Engvik @ Northern Cyclones - Chiulli 7–1
99.6%
0.1%
0.01
Jan 18 Minuteman Flames - Welsh @ Boch Blazers - Black 6–4
99.5%
0.2%
0.01
Jan 18 IHC West - Proulx @ BOSTON VIPERS 2012 - PALMER 4–3
57.4%
29.9%
0.80
Jan 17 Manchester Flames - Engvik @ Boch Blazers - Black 11–2
99.9%
0.0%
0.00
Jan 17 Northeast Generals - Rollock @ Shamrocks - Hamilton 3–4
38.1%
46.9%
1.09
Jan 17 BOSTON VIPERS 2012 - PALMER @ Minuteman Flames - Welsh 3–10
2.2%
95.7%
0.06
Jan 11 Northern Cyclones - Chiulli @ IHC West - Proulx 2–1
10.0%
81.8%
3.32 UPSET
Jan 11 Boch Blazers - Black @ Northeast Generals - Rollock 1–6
6.5%
87.3%
0.20
Jan 11 IHC West - Proulx @ Shamrocks - Hamilton 2–4
33.8%
51.7%
0.95
Jan 10 BOSTON VIPERS 2012 - PALMER @ Shamrocks - Hamilton 2–3
19.4%
69.6%
0.52
Jan 10 Boch Blazers - Connors @ IHC West - Proulx 5–3
90.8%
4.5%
0.14
Jan 10 Northern Cyclones - Chiulli @ Northeast Generals - Rollock 3–4
8.0%
84.9%
0.24
Jan 04 Northeast Generals - Rollock @ BOSTON VIPERS 2012 - PALMER 5–2
64.0%
23.9%
0.64
Jan 04 Boch Blazers - Black @ Boch Blazers - Connors 0–6
0.1%
99.6%
0.01
Jan 04 Manchester Flames - Engvik @ IHC West - Proulx 3–3
96.4%
1.6%
5.62 UPSET
Jan 03 Manchester Flames - Engvik @ Boch Blazers - Connors 4–2
48.5%
37.3%
1.04
Jan 03 Northeast Generals - Rollock @ Minuteman Flames - Welsh 5–7
10.0%
82.5%
0.28
Jan 03 BOSTON VIPERS 2012 - PALMER @ Manchester Flames - Engvik 1–11
0.5%
98.9%
0.02
Jan 02 Boch Blazers - Connors @ Boch Blazers - Black 10–2
99.7%
0.1%
0.00
Dec 28 IHC West - Proulx @ Northern Cyclones - Chiulli 5–3
81.3%
10.3%
0.30
Dec 28 Shamrocks - Hamilton @ Boch Blazers - Black 4–1
90.4%
4.7%
0.15
Dec 28 Northeast Generals - Rollock @ Manchester Flames - Engvik 2–4
3.0%
93.6%
0.10
Dec 27 Manchester Flames - Engvik @ Boch Blazers - Connors 8–2
33.6%
52.0%
1.57
Dec 27 BOSTON VIPERS 2012 - PALMER @ Northern Cyclones - Chiulli 6–2
76.8%
13.8%
0.38
Dec 27 BOSTON VIPERS 2012 - PALMER @ Northern Cyclones - Chiulli 5–3
76.8%
13.8%
0.38
Dec 27 Northeast Generals - Rollock @ Shamrocks - Hamilton 1–4
38.7%
46.3%
1.11
Dec 27 Boch Blazers - Black @ IHC West - Proulx 2–2
6.9%
86.9%
4.01 UPSET
Dec 21 Manchester Flames - Engvik @ IHC West - Proulx 7–2
95.2%
2.2%
0.07
Dec 21 Boch Blazers - Black @ Northeast Generals - Rollock 1–4
5.7%
88.8%
0.17
Dec 21 Shamrocks - Hamilton @ Minuteman Flames - Welsh 1–9
15.2%
75.3%
0.41
Dec 20 BOSTON VIPERS 2012 - PALMER @ Boch Blazers - Black 4–6
87.6%
6.8%
3.89 UPSET
Dec 20 Boch Blazers - Connors @ Minuteman Flames - Welsh 5–10
90.3%
4.7%
4.40 UPSET
Dec 20 Northeast Generals - Rollock @ IHC West - Proulx 1–6
55.4%
30.8%
1.70
Dec 14 Manchester Flames - Engvik @ Northeast Generals - Rollock 7–6
91.8%
4.0%
0.12
Dec 14 Northern Cyclones - Chiulli @ Shamrocks - Hamilton 0–2
5.6%
88.8%
0.17
Dec 14 IHC West - Proulx @ Minuteman Flames - Welsh 0–7
8.6%
85.2%
0.23
Dec 13 BOSTON VIPERS 2012 - PALMER @ Boch Blazers - Connors 2–5
0.1%
99.8%
0.00
Dec 13 Northeast Generals - Rollock @ Northern Cyclones - Chiulli 5–0
83.7%
8.8%
0.26
Dec 13 Shamrocks - Hamilton @ IHC West - Proulx 3–1
55.4%
31.1%
0.85
Dec 13 Manchester Flames - Engvik @ Minuteman Flames - Welsh 5–3
81.8%
10.6%
0.29
Dec 13 Manchester Flames - Engvik @ Minuteman Flames - Welsh 7–9
81.8%
10.6%
3.24 UPSET
Dec 07 Minuteman Flames - Welsh @ Boch Blazers - Connors 2–5
1.8%
95.8%
0.06
Dec 07 IHC West - Proulx @ Northern Cyclones - Chiulli 7–2
79.7%
11.6%
0.33
Dec 07 Boch Blazers - Black @ BOSTON VIPERS 2012 - PALMER 2–4
6.4%
88.3%
0.18
Dec 06 Boch Blazers - Connors @ Shamrocks - Hamilton 1–0
99.0%
0.3%
0.01
Dec 06 BOSTON VIPERS 2012 - PALMER @ IHC West - Proulx 3–4
34.9%
52.7%
0.92
Dec 06 Boch Blazers - Black @ Minuteman Flames - Welsh 5–9
0.1%
99.6%
0.01
Nov 30 Boch Blazers - Black @ IHC West - Proulx 1–4
3.5%
92.6%
0.11
Nov 30 Shamrocks - Hamilton @ Minuteman Flames - Welsh 2–5
15.3%
75.3%
0.41
Nov 30 Manchester Flames - Engvik @ Northeast Generals - Rollock 3–2
94.5%
2.3%
0.08
Nov 29 Shamrocks - Hamilton @ Boch Blazers - Black 3–1
95.5%
1.9%
0.07
Nov 29 Minuteman Flames - Welsh @ Northeast Generals - Rollock 5–2
77.2%
13.6%
0.37
Nov 29 Minuteman Flames - Welsh @ Northeast Generals - Rollock 5–2
77.2%
13.6%
0.37
Nov 29 Boch Blazers - Connors @ IHC West - Proulx 8–0
99.4%
0.2%
0.01
Nov 23 Boch Blazers - Black @ Manchester Flames - Engvik 2–6
0.0%
100.0%
0.00
Nov 23 BOSTON VIPERS 2012 - PALMER @ Boch Blazers - Connors 2–11
0.0%
99.9%
0.00
Nov 23 Northern Cyclones - Chiulli @ Northeast Generals - Rollock 0–2
9.3%
82.5%
0.28
Nov 22 Northeast Generals - Rollock @ Boch Blazers - Black 11–0
90.2%
4.6%
0.15
Nov 22 IHC West - Proulx @ Boch Blazers - Connors 1–9
0.2%
99.2%
0.01
Nov 22 Manchester Flames - Engvik @ BOSTON VIPERS 2012 - PALMER 8–0
99.3%
0.3%
0.01
Nov 16 Manchester Flames - Engvik @ IHC West - Proulx 7–1
97.4%
1.1%
0.04
Nov 16 Boch Blazers - Black @ Northern Cyclones - Chiulli 1–3
23.2%
61.8%
0.69
Nov 16 Northeast Generals - Rollock @ Boch Blazers - Connors 0–7 50/50 —
Nov 16 Boch Blazers - Black @ Northern Cyclones - Chiulli 7–7
23.2%
61.8%
2.74 UPSET
Nov 16 Shamrocks - Hamilton @ BOSTON VIPERS 2012 - PALMER 7–6
68.5%
20.7%
0.55
Nov 15 IHC West - Proulx @ Boch Blazers - Black 7–1
93.0%
3.2%
0.10
Nov 15 Manchester Flames - Engvik @ Shamrocks - Hamilton 2–2
96.1%
1.7%
5.51 UPSET
Nov 15 Boch Blazers - Connors @ Minuteman Flames - Welsh 5–2 50/50 —
Nov 15 BOSTON VIPERS 2012 - PALMER @ Northeast Generals - Rollock 6–3
24.9%
63.1%
2.01
Nov 09 Boch Blazers - Black @ Minuteman Flames - Welsh 0–14
0.3%
99.1%
0.01
Nov 09 IHC West - Proulx @ Shamrocks - Hamilton 4–5
35.7%
50.5%
0.99
Nov 08 Boch Blazers - Connors @ Northeast Generals - Rollock 7–0 50/50 —
Nov 08 BOSTON VIPERS 2012 - PALMER @ Northern Cyclones - Chiulli 7–2
64.9%
22.7%
0.62
Nov 08 Minuteman Flames - Welsh @ Manchester Flames - Engvik 6–4
3.1%
93.6%
5.00 UPSET
Nov 08 Boch Blazers - Black @ IHC West - Proulx 2–4
3.0%
93.6%
0.10
Nov 02 Shamrocks - Hamilton @ Manchester Flames - Engvik 2–7
0.9%
97.8%
0.03
Nov 02 Minuteman Flames - Welsh @ IHC West - Proulx 8–4
65.4%
23.7%
0.61
Nov 02 Northeast Generals - Rollock @ BOSTON VIPERS 2012 - PALMER 3–9
83.1%
9.3%
3.43 UPSET
Nov 01 Manchester Flames - Engvik @ Boch Blazers - Black 16–1
100.0%
0.0%
0.00
Nov 01 BOSTON VIPERS 2012 - PALMER @ Shamrocks - Hamilton 1–7
16.2%
74.4%
0.43
Nov 01 Northeast Generals - Rollock @ Minuteman Flames - Welsh 3–6
37.6%
48.4%
1.05
Oct 26 Northern Cyclones - Chiulli @ Manchester Flames - Engvik 0–9
0.0%
99.9%
0.00
Oct 26 IHC West - Proulx @ BOSTON VIPERS 2012 - PALMER 6–5
83.5%
9.5%
0.26
Oct 25 IHC West - Proulx @ Manchester Flames - Engvik 0–9
2.7%
94.4%
0.08
Oct 25 Shamrocks - Hamilton @ Northeast Generals - Rollock 3–3
25.2%
61.6%
2.92 UPSET
Oct 19 Boch Blazers - Black @ Minuteman Flames - Welsh 1–9
1.3%
97.1%
0.04
Oct 19 Manchester Flames - Engvik @ Shamrocks - Hamilton 12–3
96.4%
1.5%
0.05
Oct 18 Shamrocks - Hamilton @ Boch Blazers - Black 5–1
90.5%
4.7%
0.14
Oct 18 Northern Cyclones - Chiulli @ IHC West - Proulx 3–8
6.5%
87.0%
0.20
Oct 18 Minuteman Flames - Welsh @ BOSTON VIPERS 2012 - PALMER 6–2
92.0%
4.5%
0.12
Oct 12 Northeast Generals - Rollock @ Manchester Flames - Engvik 3–6
3.6%
91.9%
0.12
Oct 12 Northern Cyclones - Chiulli @ Shamrocks - Hamilton 3–4
6.6%
86.7%
0.21
Oct 11 IHC West - Proulx @ Manchester Flames - Engvik 1–7
2.8%
93.9%
0.09
Oct 11 Northeast Generals - Rollock @ Boch Blazers - Black 7–0
89.7%
5.1%
0.16
Oct 11 Minuteman Flames - Welsh @ Shamrocks - Hamilton 7–3
48.6%
38.7%
1.04
Oct 05 Northeast Generals - Rollock @ Shamrocks - Hamilton 3–6
60.8%
24.9%
2.01
Oct 04 Shamrocks - Hamilton @ Manchester Flames - Engvik 4–9
2.1%
94.3% ⚠
0.09
Oct 04 Minuteman Flames - Welsh @ Boch Blazers - Black 8–3
96.8%
1.7% ⚠
0.05
Oct 04 Northern Cyclones - Chiulli @ BOSTON VIPERS 2012 - PALMER 5–6
19.8%
67.2% ⚠
0.57
Sep 28 Boch Blazers - Black @ Manchester Flames - Engvik 0–17
0.5%
98.6% ⚠
0.02
Sep 28 Shamrocks - Hamilton @ Northern Cyclones - Chiulli 5–0
86.6%
6.5% ⚠
0.21
Sep 27 Northern Cyclones - Chiulli @ Manchester Flames - Engvik 2–10 50/50 —
Sep 27 Boch Blazers - Black @ Shamrocks - Hamilton 3–3
8.4%
84.8% ⚠
3.89 UPSET
Sep 27 IHC West - Proulx @ Northeast Generals - Rollock 2–5
54.3%
31.0% ⚠
1.69
Sep 21 Shamrocks - Hamilton @ BOSTON VIPERS 2012 - PALMER 9–2 50/50 —
Sep 21 Minuteman Flames - Welsh @ Manchester Flames - Engvik 1–8 50/50 —
Sep 21 Northeast Generals - Rollock @ Northern Cyclones - Chiulli 5–3 50/50 —
Sep 20 IHC West - Proulx @ Boch Blazers - Black 7–2 50/50 —
Sep 20 Minuteman Flames - Welsh @ Shamrocks - Hamilton 5–5 50/50 —
Sep 20 BOSTON VIPERS 2012 - PALMER @ Northeast Generals - Rollock 1–4 50/50 —
Sep 14 Minuteman Flames - Welsh @ BOSTON VIPERS 2012 - PALMER 11–7 50/50 —
Sep 13 Northeast Generals - Rollock @ Boch Blazers - Black 9–2 50/50 —
Sep 13 Northern Cyclones - Chiulli @ Minuteman Flames - Welsh 0–7 50/50 —
Sep 07 IHC West - Proulx @ BOSTON VIPERS 2012 - PALMER 9–3 50/50 —
Sep 07 Minuteman Flames - Welsh @ Manchester Flames - Engvik 4–8 50/50 —
Sep 06 Boch Blazers - Black @ Shamrocks - Hamilton 4–5 50/50 —
Sep 06 BOSTON VIPERS 2012 - PALMER @ Manchester Flames - Engvik 0–7 50/50 —
Sep 06 IHC West - Proulx @ Northeast Generals - Rollock 4–3 50/50 —