The Sheet

What is Surprisal? Surprisal measures how surprising a result was, based on pre-game probabilities. 0 bits = perfectly predicted. 3+ bits = major upset. A result is flagged as an UPSET when surprisal exceeds 2.5 bits.

Standings

# Team GP W L T GF GA PTS
1 Top Gun 35 26 5 4 181 56 56
2 Boston Jr Eagles 33 21 7 5 117 54 47
3 Minuteman Flames 35 20 9 6 124 87 46
4 Seacoast Spartans 30 22 8 0 155 61 44
5 Islanders Hockey Club 36 14 18 4 117 91 32
6 South Shore Kings 33 12 19 2 90 142 26
7 Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan 33 8 21 4 73 142 20
8 Boston Jr Terriers 34 8 23 3 73 150 19
9 Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers 8 8 0 0 59 7 16
10 Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB 33 2 31 0 35 234 4

Game Log

Date Matchup Score Pre-game Probability Surprisal Flag
Mar 08 Top Gun @ Islanders Hockey Club 4–3
75.2%
11.7%
0.41
Mar 07 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Eagles 1–0
54.2%
24.2%
0.88
Feb 22 Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Terriers 2–2
89.5%
4.3%
4.01 UPSET
Feb 22 South Shore Kings @ Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan 5–4
55.5%
28.9%
0.85
Feb 22 Top Gun @ Islanders Hockey Club 2–2
75.9%
10.9%
2.93 UPSET
Feb 21 South Shore Kings @ Islanders Hockey Club 4–2
6.9%
85.0%
3.87 UPSET
Feb 21 Boston Jr Eagles @ Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan 7–0
92.4%
2.4%
0.11
Feb 21 Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB @ Minuteman Flames 0–12
0.3%
98.9%
0.02
Feb 21 South Shore Kings @ Islanders Hockey Club 4–1
6.9%
85.0%
3.87 UPSET
Feb 21 Seacoast Spartans @ Top Gun 1–3
19.6%
65.8%
0.60
Feb 21 Boston Jr Eagles @ Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan 3–3
92.4%
2.4%
4.26 UPSET
Feb 20 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Terriers 4–4
51.8%
32.3%
2.65 UPSET
Feb 15 Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan @ Boston Jr Terriers 4–2
39.4%
42.8%
1.34
Feb 15 Seacoast Spartans @ Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB 9–0
99.8%
0.0%
0.00
Feb 15 Minuteman Flames @ Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB 6–0
98.9%
0.3%
0.02
Feb 14 Minuteman Flames @ Islanders Hockey Club 0–4
42.6%
36.8%
1.44
Feb 14 Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan @ Seacoast Spartans 1–8
2.0%
94.9%
0.07
Feb 13 Seacoast Spartans @ Boston Jr Terriers 7–1
94.8%
2.1%
0.08
Feb 08 Boston Jr Eagles @ Islanders Hockey Club 1–0
54.2%
24.0%
0.88
Feb 08 South Shore Kings @ Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB 3–2
89.8%
4.5%
0.15
Feb 08 Boston Jr Terriers @ Top Gun 0–9
0.6%
98.1%
0.03
Feb 08 Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan @ Minuteman Flames 1–2
3.9%
90.1%
0.15
Feb 08 Boston Jr Terriers @ Top Gun 0–7
0.6%
98.1%
0.03
Feb 07 Islanders Hockey Club @ Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB 9–1
98.6%
0.4%
0.02
Feb 07 Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan @ Top Gun 0–10
0.6%
97.9%
0.03
Feb 07 South Shore Kings @ Minuteman Flames 1–3
6.0%
87.1%
0.20
Feb 06 Top Gun @ Seacoast Spartans 5–3
62.3%
22.1%
0.68
Feb 01 Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan @ Boston Jr Terriers 2–3
40.0%
42.3%
1.24
Jan 31 Boston Jr Terriers @ Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan 4–1
38.9%
43.5%
1.36
Jan 31 Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB @ South Shore Kings 2–6
4.6%
89.7%
0.16
Jan 25 Boston Jr Eagles @ Boston Jr Terriers 5–1
92.2%
2.5%
0.12
Jan 25 Seacoast Spartans @ South Shore Kings 5–2
93.8%
2.7%
0.09
Jan 25 Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB @ Minuteman Flames 3–9
0.2%
99.3%
0.01
Jan 25 Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan @ Islanders Hockey Club 2–1
5.3%
87.3%
4.24 UPSET
Jan 24 Islanders Hockey Club @ Minuteman Flames 0–1
37.8%
42.7%
1.23
Jan 24 Seacoast Spartans @ Top Gun 1–4
24.6%
59.2%
0.76
Jan 24 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Eagles 0–3
3.3%
91.2%
0.13
Jan 24 Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB @ Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan 1–8
9.2%
80.0%
0.32
Jan 17 Minuteman Flames @ Top Gun 3–8
20.9%
62.0%
0.69
Jan 17 Minuteman Flames @ Top Gun 0–3
20.9%
62.0%
0.69
Jan 11 Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB @ Boston Jr Terriers 1–6
8.7%
81.1%
0.30
Jan 11 Islanders Hockey Club @ Minuteman Flames 4–3
33.3%
46.5%
1.59
Jan 11 Boston Jr Eagles @ Top Gun 3–4
28.8%
48.4%
1.05
Jan 11 South Shore Kings @ Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan 2–2
55.2%
29.8%
2.74 UPSET
Jan 10 Top Gun @ Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB 13–1
99.8%
0.0%
0.00
Jan 10 Top Gun @ Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB 11–0
99.8%
0.0%
0.00
Jan 10 Minuteman Flames @ South Shore Kings 6–2
91.1%
3.8%
0.13
Jan 10 Minuteman Flames @ South Shore Kings 4–3
91.1%
3.8%
0.13
Jan 04 Top Gun @ Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan 11–0
96.5%
1.1%
0.05
Jan 04 Seacoast Spartans @ Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB 8–0
99.8%
0.1%
0.00
Jan 04 Boston Jr Eagles @ Minuteman Flames 2–2
46.4%
30.6%
2.12
Jan 04 Top Gun @ Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan 4–2
96.5%
1.1%
0.05
Jan 04 Islanders Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Terriers 6–0
86.7%
5.7%
0.21
Jan 03 Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan @ Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB 3–5
84.4%
6.5%
3.95 UPSET
Jan 03 Boston Jr Terriers @ Seacoast Spartans 0–6
1.9%
95.3%
0.07
Jan 03 Islanders Hockey Club @ Top Gun 3–3
16.5%
66.7%
2.57 UPSET
Dec 28 Boston Jr Eagles @ Boston Jr Terriers 3–0
93.5%
2.1%
0.10
Dec 28 Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan @ South Shore Kings 2–4
38.7%
45.4%
1.14
Dec 28 Top Gun @ Minuteman Flames 1–1
57.5%
23.5%
2.40
Dec 28 Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB @ Boston Jr Eagles 1–5
0.1%
99.5%
0.01
Dec 27 Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB @ Top Gun 0–9
0.0%
99.8%
0.00
Dec 27 Boston Jr Terriers @ South Shore Kings 8–2
34.3%
49.9%
1.54
Dec 27 Boston Jr Terriers @ South Shore Kings 2–7
34.3%
49.9%
1.00
Dec 27 Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB @ Top Gun 0–11
0.0%
99.8%
0.00
Dec 27 Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan @ Minuteman Flames 1–8
5.5%
86.7%
0.21
Dec 21 Boston Jr Terriers @ Minuteman Flames 2–4
2.9%
92.4%
0.11
Dec 21 Islanders Hockey Club @ Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan 7–4
81.1%
8.0%
0.30
Dec 21 Boston Jr Eagles @ South Shore Kings 6–2
93.4%
2.3%
0.10
Dec 20 Islanders Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Eagles 2–5
23.4%
54.0%
0.89
Dec 20 Boston Jr Terriers @ Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB 2–0
83.1%
8.0%
0.27
Dec 20 South Shore Kings @ Top Gun 0–5
1.3%
96.4%
0.05
Dec 14 Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB @ Islanders Hockey Club 1–10
0.5%
97.9%
0.03
Dec 14 Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Eagles 1–1
28.4%
50.5%
2.25
Dec 14 Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Eagles 1–1
28.4%
50.5%
2.25
Dec 13 Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB @ South Shore Kings 3–5
4.2%
90.1%
0.15
Dec 13 Top Gun @ Minuteman Flames 2–5
64.9%
18.1%
2.47
Dec 07 Boston Jr Terriers @ Islanders Hockey Club 0–7
7.9%
82.3%
0.28
Dec 07 Seacoast Spartans @ Minuteman Flames 3–5
55.4%
28.1%
1.83
Dec 06 Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB @ Boston Jr Terriers 1–6
8.1%
82.4%
0.28
Dec 06 South Shore Kings @ Minuteman Flames 0–3
6.2%
87.3%
0.20
Dec 06 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Eagles 4–1
41.7%
34.5%
1.26
Nov 30 Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB @ Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan 1–4
7.6%
82.2%
0.28
Nov 29 Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan @ Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB 4–0
79.3%
9.7%
0.34
Nov 23 South Shore Kings @ Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB 6–0
81.9%
9.9%
0.29
Nov 23 Islanders Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Terriers 4–0
82.0%
8.1%
0.29
Nov 22 Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB @ Boston Jr Eagles 1–8
0.2%
99.0%
0.01
Nov 22 Islanders Hockey Club @ South Shore Kings 3–4
86.6%
6.0%
4.06 UPSET
Nov 22 Minuteman Flames @ Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan 1–2
91.0%
3.6%
4.80 UPSET
Nov 16 Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Terriers 5–2
92.6%
3.1%
0.11
Nov 16 Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers @ Islanders Hockey Club 8–0
99.4%
0.2%
0.01
Nov 16 Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan @ Boston Jr Eagles 1–4
1.5%
94.8%
0.08
Nov 16 Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan @ Boston Jr Eagles 1–4
1.5%
94.8%
0.08
Nov 16 Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers @ Islanders Hockey Club 9–0
99.4%
0.2%
0.01
Nov 16 South Shore Kings @ Seacoast Spartans 3–12
1.7%
95.9%
0.06
Nov 15 Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers @ Top Gun 8–1
98.5%
0.4%
0.02
Nov 15 Boston Jr Terriers @ Islanders Hockey Club 2–6
6.4%
84.7%
0.24
Nov 15 Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers @ Top Gun 4–3
98.5%
0.4%
0.02
Nov 15 Boston Jr Eagles @ Minuteman Flames 2–3
58.9%
21.8%
2.19
Nov 09 Islanders Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Eagles 1–2
17.1%
62.6%
0.68
Nov 09 Seacoast Spartans @ Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan 4–1
96.7%
1.2%
0.05
Nov 08 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Terriers 6–1
95.3%
1.6%
0.07
Nov 08 Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan @ South Shore Kings 3–2
30.7%
54.8%
1.71
Nov 08 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Terriers 6–0
95.3%
1.6%
0.07
Nov 08 Seacoast Spartans @ Islanders Hockey Club 5–3
53.9%
26.4%
0.89
Nov 01 Boston Jr Terriers @ Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan 4–4
52.2%
30.9%
2.57 UPSET
Nov 01 South Shore Kings @ Top Gun 2–6
1.3%
96.5%
0.05
Nov 01 Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB @ Seacoast Spartans 0–8
0.1%
99.8%
0.00
Nov 01 Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB @ Seacoast Spartans 2–7
0.1%
99.8%
0.00
Oct 25 Boston Jr Terriers @ Boston Jr Eagles 3–4
0.8%
96.9%
0.05
Oct 25 Boston Jr Terriers @ Boston Jr Eagles 0–5
0.8%
96.9%
0.05
Oct 19 Minuteman Flames @ Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers 0–12 50/50 —
Oct 19 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Terriers 4–2
44.2%
40.3%
1.18
Oct 19 Boston Jr Eagles @ Seacoast Spartans 3–4
61.2%
19.6%
2.35
Oct 19 Minuteman Flames @ Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers 2–8 50/50 —
Oct 19 Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB @ Islanders Hockey Club 0–8
1.9%
94.3%
0.08
Oct 18 Seacoast Spartans @ Boston Jr Terriers 9–2
92.9%
2.8%
0.11
Oct 18 Islanders Hockey Club @ Minuteman Flames 2–2
27.3%
52.0%
2.27
Oct 18 Boston Jr Eagles @ Top Gun 2–1
50.0%
27.1%
1.00
Oct 12 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Eagles 0–9
2.0%
94.1%
0.09
Oct 12 Islanders Hockey Club @ Seacoast Spartans 0–2
24.5%
57.2%
0.80
Oct 11 South Shore Kings @ Seacoast Spartans 2–8
0.9%
97.8%
0.03
Oct 11 Boston Jr Eagles @ Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB 7–0
99.1%
0.2%
0.01
Oct 11 Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan @ Islanders Hockey Club 2–6
7.0%
81.1%
0.30
Oct 11 Seacoast Spartans @ South Shore Kings 3–1
97.8%
0.9%
0.03
Oct 10 Islanders Hockey Club @ Seacoast Spartans 3–4
20.4%
61.8%
0.70
Oct 05 Boston Jr Terriers @ Seacoast Spartans 1–7
4.5%
89.5%
0.16
Oct 04 Islanders Hockey Club @ Top Gun 2–1
12.3%
70.6%
3.02 UPSET
Oct 04 Seacoast Spartans @ Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan 9–1
93.8%
2.4%
0.09
Sep 28 Top Gun @ South Shore Kings 8–1
94.8%
2.6%
0.08
Sep 28 Boston Jr Terriers @ Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB 6–3
73.6%
12.6%
0.44
Sep 28 Top Gun @ South Shore Kings 7–1
94.8%
2.6%
0.08
Sep 28 Islanders Hockey Club @ Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan 2–2
83.9%
5.7%
3.27 UPSET
Sep 28 Minuteman Flames @ Seacoast Spartans 1–3
48.9%
35.0%
1.51
Sep 27 Boston Jr Eagles @ Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers 0–5 50/50 —
Sep 27 Top Gun @ Seacoast Spartans 4–3 50/50 —
Sep 27 Minuteman Flames @ Islanders Hockey Club 4–1
38.2%
33.8% ⚠
1.39
Sep 27 Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB @ Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan 3–1
4.3%
91.8% ⚠
4.54 UPSET
Sep 27 Boston Jr Terriers @ South Shore Kings 2–3 50/50 —
Sep 27 Boston Jr Eagles @ Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers 1–5 50/50 —
Sep 21 Top Gun @ Islanders Hockey Club 4–3 50/50 —
Sep 21 Minuteman Flames @ Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB 10–1 50/50 —
Sep 21 Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan @ Seacoast Spartans 2–8 50/50 —
Sep 21 Boston Jr Eagles @ South Shore Kings 8–5 50/50 —
Sep 20 Seacoast Spartans @ Minuteman Flames 4–5
14.2%
68.8% ⚠
0.54
Sep 20 Boston Jr Terriers @ Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan 2–4 50/50 —
Sep 20 Islanders Hockey Club @ South Shore Kings 4–0 50/50 —
Sep 20 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Eagles 0–0 50/50 —
Sep 19 Boston Jr Eagles @ Seacoast Spartans 2–0 50/50 —
Sep 14 Seacoast Spartans @ Minuteman Flames 2–3 50/50 —
Sep 14 Boston Jr Eagles @ Islanders Hockey Club 2–1 50/50 —
Sep 13 Seacoast Spartans @ Islanders Hockey Club 2–1 50/50 —
Sep 13 Boston Jr Terriers @ Minuteman Flames 3–2 50/50 —
Sep 13 Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB @ Boston Jr Eagles 1–8 50/50 —
Sep 06 Minuteman Flames @ Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan 5–1 50/50 —
Sep 06 Islanders Hockey Club @ Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB 6–1 50/50 —