Season Review

What is Surprisal? Surprisal measures how surprising a result was, based on pre-game probabilities. 0 bits = perfectly predicted. 3+ bits = major upset. A result is flagged as an UPSET when surprisal exceeds 2.5 bits.

Standings

# Team GP W L T GF GA PTS
1 Top Gun 33 24 5 4 176 53 52
2 Boston Jr Eagles 32 21 6 5 117 53 47
3 Minuteman Flames 35 20 9 6 124 87 46
4 Seacoast Spartans 30 22 8 0 155 61 44
5 Islanders Hockey Club 35 14 17 4 114 87 32
6 South Shore Kings 33 12 19 2 90 142 26
7 Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan 33 8 21 4 73 142 20
8 Boston Jr Terriers 34 8 23 3 73 150 19
9 Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers 8 8 0 0 59 7 16
10 Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB 33 2 31 0 35 234 4

Game Log

Date Matchup Score Pre-game Probability Surprisal Flag
Feb 22 Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Terriers 2–2
89.5%
4.3%
4.01 UPSET
Feb 22 South Shore Kings @ Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan 5–4
55.5%
28.9%
0.85
Feb 22 Top Gun @ Islanders Hockey Club 2–2
75.9%
10.9%
2.93 UPSET
Feb 21 Boston Jr Eagles @ Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan 7–0
92.4%
2.4%
0.11
Feb 21 South Shore Kings @ Islanders Hockey Club 4–2
6.9%
85.0%
3.87 UPSET
Feb 21 Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB @ Minuteman Flames 0–12
0.3%
98.9%
0.02
Feb 21 South Shore Kings @ Islanders Hockey Club 4–1
6.9%
85.0%
3.87 UPSET
Feb 21 Seacoast Spartans @ Top Gun 1–3
19.6%
65.8%
0.60
Feb 21 Boston Jr Eagles @ Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan 3–3
92.4%
2.4%
4.26 UPSET
Feb 20 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Terriers 4–4
51.8%
32.3%
2.65 UPSET
Feb 15 Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan @ Boston Jr Terriers 4–2
39.4%
42.8%
1.34
Feb 15 Seacoast Spartans @ Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB 9–0
99.8%
0.0%
0.00
Feb 15 Minuteman Flames @ Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB 6–0
98.9%
0.3%
0.02
Feb 14 Minuteman Flames @ Islanders Hockey Club 0–4
42.6%
36.8%
1.44
Feb 14 Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan @ Seacoast Spartans 1–8
2.0%
94.9%
0.07
Feb 13 Seacoast Spartans @ Boston Jr Terriers 7–1
94.8%
2.1%
0.08
Feb 08 Boston Jr Terriers @ Top Gun 0–7
0.6%
98.0%
0.03
Feb 08 Boston Jr Eagles @ Islanders Hockey Club 1–0
53.7%
23.4%
0.90
Feb 08 South Shore Kings @ Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB 3–2
89.8%
4.5%
0.16
Feb 08 Boston Jr Terriers @ Top Gun 0–9
0.6%
98.0%
0.03
Feb 08 Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan @ Minuteman Flames 1–2
3.8%
90.1%
0.15
Feb 07 Islanders Hockey Club @ Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB 9–1
98.5%
0.4%
0.02
Feb 07 Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan @ Top Gun 0–10
0.6%
97.8%
0.03
Feb 07 South Shore Kings @ Minuteman Flames 1–3
5.9%
87.2%
0.20
Feb 06 Top Gun @ Seacoast Spartans 5–3
62.1%
21.9%
0.69
Feb 01 Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan @ Boston Jr Terriers 2–3
39.8%
42.1%
1.25
Jan 31 Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB @ South Shore Kings 2–6
4.6%
89.6%
0.16
Jan 31 Boston Jr Terriers @ Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan 4–1
38.8%
43.3%
1.37
Jan 25 Boston Jr Eagles @ Boston Jr Terriers 5–1
92.1%
2.4%
0.12
Jan 25 Seacoast Spartans @ South Shore Kings 5–2
93.8%
2.7%
0.09
Jan 25 Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB @ Minuteman Flames 3–9
0.2%
99.3%
0.01
Jan 25 Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan @ Islanders Hockey Club 2–1
5.3%
87.0%
4.24 UPSET
Jan 24 Seacoast Spartans @ Top Gun 1–4
24.3%
58.0%
0.79
Jan 24 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Eagles 0–3
3.3%
90.5%
0.14
Jan 24 Islanders Hockey Club @ Minuteman Flames 0–1
36.5%
41.3%
1.28
Jan 24 Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB @ Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan 1–8
8.9%
78.8%
0.34
Jan 17 Minuteman Flames @ Top Gun 3–8
20.2%
60.1%
0.73
Jan 17 Minuteman Flames @ Top Gun 0–3
20.2%
60.1%
0.73
Jan 11 Islanders Hockey Club @ Minuteman Flames 4–3
31.9%
44.7%
1.65
Jan 11 Boston Jr Eagles @ Top Gun 3–4
26.5%
45.6%
1.13
Jan 11 South Shore Kings @ Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan 2–2
54.8%
29.6%
2.68 UPSET
Jan 11 Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB @ Boston Jr Terriers 1–6
8.5%
80.0%
0.32
Jan 10 Top Gun @ Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB 13–1
99.8%
0.0%
0.00
Jan 10 Top Gun @ Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB 11–0
99.8%
0.0%
0.00
Jan 10 Minuteman Flames @ South Shore Kings 6–2
90.7%
3.8%
0.14
Jan 10 Minuteman Flames @ South Shore Kings 4–3
90.7%
3.8%
0.14
Jan 04 Top Gun @ Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan 11–0
96.2%
1.0%
0.06
Jan 04 Seacoast Spartans @ Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB 8–0
99.8%
0.1%
0.00
Jan 04 Boston Jr Eagles @ Minuteman Flames 2–2
43.5%
28.3%
1.83
Jan 04 Top Gun @ Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan 4–2
96.2%
1.0%
0.06
Jan 04 Islanders Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Terriers 6–0
85.9%
5.6%
0.22
Jan 03 Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan @ Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB 3–5
83.2%
6.3%
4.00 UPSET
Jan 03 Boston Jr Terriers @ Seacoast Spartans 0–6
1.9%
95.2%
0.07
Jan 03 Islanders Hockey Club @ Top Gun 3–3
15.7%
64.5%
2.34
Dec 28 Boston Jr Eagles @ Boston Jr Terriers 3–0
92.8%
2.1%
0.11
Dec 28 Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan @ South Shore Kings 2–4
38.3%
44.9%
1.16
Dec 28 Top Gun @ Minuteman Flames 1–1
55.3%
22.5%
2.17
Dec 28 Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB @ Boston Jr Eagles 1–5
0.1%
99.4%
0.01
Dec 27 Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB @ Top Gun 0–11
0.0%
99.8%
0.00
Dec 27 Boston Jr Terriers @ South Shore Kings 2–7
34.0%
49.4%
1.02
Dec 27 Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB @ Top Gun 0–9
0.0%
99.8%
0.00
Dec 27 Boston Jr Terriers @ South Shore Kings 8–2
34.0%
49.4%
1.56
Dec 27 Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan @ Minuteman Flames 1–8
5.4%
85.7%
0.22
Dec 21 Boston Jr Terriers @ Minuteman Flames 2–4
2.9%
91.8%
0.12
Dec 21 Islanders Hockey Club @ Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan 7–4
79.6%
7.7%
0.33
Dec 21 Boston Jr Eagles @ South Shore Kings 6–2
92.8%
2.3%
0.11
Dec 20 South Shore Kings @ Top Gun 0–5
1.3%
96.2%
0.06
Dec 20 Islanders Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Eagles 2–5
21.1%
50.9%
0.97
Dec 20 Boston Jr Terriers @ Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB 2–0
82.3%
7.9%
0.28
Dec 14 Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB @ Islanders Hockey Club 1–10
0.5%
97.6%
0.04
Dec 14 Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Eagles 1–1
26.8%
48.1%
1.99
Dec 14 Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Eagles 1–1
26.8%
48.1%
1.99
Dec 13 Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB @ South Shore Kings 3–5
4.2%
89.6%
0.16
Dec 13 Top Gun @ Minuteman Flames 2–5
62.9%
17.3%
2.53 UPSET
Dec 07 Seacoast Spartans @ Minuteman Flames 3–5
54.5%
27.4%
1.87
Dec 07 Boston Jr Terriers @ Islanders Hockey Club 0–7
7.7%
81.1%
0.30
Dec 06 Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB @ Boston Jr Terriers 1–6
7.9%
81.4%
0.30
Dec 06 South Shore Kings @ Minuteman Flames 0–3
6.2%
86.9%
0.20
Dec 06 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Eagles 4–1
39.1%
31.9%
1.36
Nov 30 Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB @ Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan 1–4
7.3%
80.9%
0.31
Nov 29 Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan @ Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB 4–0
78.1%
9.5%
0.36
Nov 23 South Shore Kings @ Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB 6–0
81.6%
9.9%
0.29
Nov 23 Islanders Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Terriers 4–0
80.8%
7.9%
0.31
Nov 22 Minuteman Flames @ Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan 1–2
90.4%
3.6%
4.81 UPSET
Nov 22 Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB @ Boston Jr Eagles 1–8
0.2%
98.9%
0.02
Nov 22 Islanders Hockey Club @ South Shore Kings 3–4
85.9%
6.0%
4.07 UPSET
Nov 16 Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Terriers 5–2
92.2%
3.1%
0.12
Nov 16 Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan @ Boston Jr Eagles 1–4
1.5%
94.1%
0.09
Nov 16 Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers @ Islanders Hockey Club 9–0
99.3%
0.2%
0.01
Nov 16 South Shore Kings @ Seacoast Spartans 3–12
1.7%
95.7%
0.06
Nov 16 Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers @ Islanders Hockey Club 8–0
99.3%
0.2%
0.01
Nov 16 Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan @ Boston Jr Eagles 1–4
1.5%
94.1%
0.09
Nov 15 Boston Jr Eagles @ Minuteman Flames 2–3
56.6%
20.7%
2.27
Nov 15 Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers @ Top Gun 8–1
98.4%
0.4%
0.02
Nov 15 Boston Jr Terriers @ Islanders Hockey Club 2–6
6.2%
83.5%
0.26
Nov 15 Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers @ Top Gun 4–3
98.4%
0.4%
0.02
Nov 09 Islanders Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Eagles 1–2
15.3%
59.4%
0.75
Nov 09 Seacoast Spartans @ Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan 4–1
96.5%
1.2%
0.05
Nov 08 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Terriers 6–1
95.1%
1.6%
0.07
Nov 08 Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan @ South Shore Kings 3–2
30.5%
54.3%
1.71
Nov 08 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Terriers 6–0
95.1%
1.6%
0.07
Nov 08 Seacoast Spartans @ Islanders Hockey Club 5–3
51.6%
25.1%
0.95
Nov 01 Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB @ Seacoast Spartans 0–8
0.1%
99.8%
0.00
Nov 01 South Shore Kings @ Top Gun 2–6
1.3%
96.3%
0.05
Nov 01 Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB @ Seacoast Spartans 2–7
0.1%
99.8%
0.00
Nov 01 Boston Jr Terriers @ Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan 4–4
51.4%
30.3%
2.45
Oct 25 Boston Jr Terriers @ Boston Jr Eagles 3–4
0.8%
96.5%
0.05
Oct 25 Boston Jr Terriers @ Boston Jr Eagles 0–5
0.8%
96.5%
0.05
Oct 19 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Terriers 4–2
43.6%
40.2%
1.20
Oct 19 Boston Jr Eagles @ Seacoast Spartans 3–4
58.1%
18.9%
2.40
Oct 19 Minuteman Flames @ Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers 2–8 50/50 —
Oct 19 Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB @ Islanders Hockey Club 0–8
1.9%
93.7%
0.09
Oct 19 Minuteman Flames @ Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers 0–12 50/50 —
Oct 18 Seacoast Spartans @ Boston Jr Terriers 9–2
92.4%
2.7%
0.11
Oct 18 Islanders Hockey Club @ Minuteman Flames 2–2
25.6%
49.5%
2.01
Oct 18 Boston Jr Eagles @ Top Gun 2–1
47.4%
25.5%
1.08
Oct 12 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Eagles 0–9
2.0%
93.4%
0.10
Oct 12 Islanders Hockey Club @ Seacoast Spartans 0–2
23.6%
55.3%
0.86
Oct 11 South Shore Kings @ Seacoast Spartans 2–8
1.0%
97.7%
0.03
Oct 11 Boston Jr Eagles @ Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB 7–0
99.0%
0.3%
0.01
Oct 11 Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan @ Islanders Hockey Club 2–6
6.4%
79.1%
0.34
Oct 11 Seacoast Spartans @ South Shore Kings 3–1
97.7%
1.0%
0.03
Oct 10 Islanders Hockey Club @ Seacoast Spartans 3–4
19.4%
59.2%
0.76
Oct 05 Boston Jr Terriers @ Seacoast Spartans 1–7
4.5%
88.9%
0.17
Oct 04 Islanders Hockey Club @ Top Gun 2–1
11.5%
67.8%
3.12 UPSET
Oct 04 Seacoast Spartans @ Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan 9–1
93.3%
2.4%
0.10
Sep 28 Top Gun @ South Shore Kings 8–1
94.9%
2.5%
0.08
Sep 28 Boston Jr Terriers @ Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB 6–3
71.8%
12.1%
0.48
Sep 28 Top Gun @ South Shore Kings 7–1
94.9%
2.5%
0.08
Sep 28 Islanders Hockey Club @ Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan 2–2
82.2%
5.1%
2.98 UPSET
Sep 28 Minuteman Flames @ Seacoast Spartans 1–3
48.2%
34.7%
1.53
Sep 27 Boston Jr Eagles @ Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers 0–5 50/50 —
Sep 27 Top Gun @ Seacoast Spartans 4–3 50/50 —
Sep 27 Minuteman Flames @ Islanders Hockey Club 4–1
33.6%
29.9% ⚠
1.57
Sep 27 Boston Jr Eagles @ Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers 1–5 50/50 —
Sep 27 Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB @ Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan 3–1
4.3%
91.8% ⚠
4.54 UPSET
Sep 27 Boston Jr Terriers @ South Shore Kings 2–3 50/50 —
Sep 21 Top Gun @ Islanders Hockey Club 4–3 50/50 —
Sep 21 Boston Jr Eagles @ South Shore Kings 8–5 50/50 —
Sep 21 Minuteman Flames @ Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB 10–1 50/50 —
Sep 21 Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan @ Seacoast Spartans 2–8 50/50 —
Sep 20 Seacoast Spartans @ Minuteman Flames 4–5
17.1%
82.9% ⚠
0.27
Sep 20 Islanders Hockey Club @ South Shore Kings 4–0 50/50 —
Sep 20 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Eagles 0–0 50/50 —
Sep 20 Boston Jr Terriers @ Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan 2–4 50/50 —
Sep 19 Boston Jr Eagles @ Seacoast Spartans 2–0 50/50 —
Sep 14 Boston Jr Eagles @ Islanders Hockey Club 2–1 50/50 —
Sep 14 Seacoast Spartans @ Minuteman Flames 2–3 50/50 —
Sep 13 Seacoast Spartans @ Islanders Hockey Club 2–1 50/50 —
Sep 13 Boston Jr Terriers @ Minuteman Flames 3–2 50/50 —
Sep 13 Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB @ Boston Jr Eagles 1–8 50/50 —
Sep 06 Minuteman Flames @ Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan 5–1 50/50 —
Sep 06 Islanders Hockey Club @ Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB 6–1 50/50 —