The Sheet

What is Surprisal? Surprisal measures how surprising a result was, based on pre-game probabilities. 0 bits = perfectly predicted. 3+ bits = major upset. A result is flagged as an UPSET when surprisal exceeds 2.5 bits.

Standings

# Team GP W L T GF GA PTS
1 Top Gun 35 28 4 3 170 47 59
2 Boston Jr Eagles 36 23 11 2 130 79 48
3 Cyclones Academy 34 18 9 7 113 77 43
4 Islanders Hockey Club (East) 36 17 12 7 108 82 41
5 Seacoast Spartans 35 17 12 6 100 101 40
6 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 35 16 13 6 100 82 38
7 Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall 36 11 18 7 100 122 29
8 Minuteman Flames 36 10 21 5 85 132 25
9 Islanders Hockey Club (West) 36 9 24 3 78 132 21
10 South Shore Kings 33 3 28 2 45 175 8

Game Log

Date Matchup Score Pre-game Probability Surprisal Flag
Feb 22 Minuteman Flames @ Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall 6–4
29.1%
54.7%
1.78
Feb 22 Top Gun @ Islanders Hockey Club (West) 6–2
95.0%
1.6%
0.07
Feb 22 South Shore Kings @ Seacoast Spartans 1–5
4.4%
89.4%
0.16
Feb 22 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Cyclones Academy 4–1
33.0%
47.5%
1.60
Feb 22 Boston Jr Eagles @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 3–4
52.3%
28.7%
1.80
Feb 21 Top Gun @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 4–0
76.8%
10.5%
0.38
Feb 21 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Minuteman Flames 4–2
67.3%
17.6%
0.57
Feb 21 Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall @ Islanders Hockey Club (West) 5–1
54.1%
29.3%
0.89
Feb 21 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Minuteman Flames 7–0
63.0%
20.4%
0.67
Feb 21 Cyclones Academy @ Boston Jr Eagles 1–2
37.2%
44.3%
1.17
Feb 15 Cyclones Academy @ Islanders Hockey Club (West) 3–0
77.0%
11.6%
0.38
Feb 15 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Top Gun 0–7
11.1%
75.3%
0.41
Feb 15 Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 0–5
26.6%
56.4%
0.83
Feb 15 Minuteman Flames @ Seacoast Spartans 1–4
25.5%
58.3%
0.78
Feb 14 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 1–2
39.9%
39.0%
1.36
Feb 14 Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall @ Top Gun 0–6
5.1%
88.1%
0.18
Feb 14 Cyclones Academy @ Seacoast Spartans 2–2
59.7%
24.3%
2.65 UPSET
Feb 14 Minuteman Flames @ Islanders Hockey Club (West) 1–3
47.1%
35.4%
1.50
Feb 13 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Seacoast Spartans 1–2
51.4%
30.7%
1.70
Feb 08 Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 2–3
27.7%
54.4%
0.88
Feb 08 Cyclones Academy @ South Shore Kings 3–1
96.0%
1.4%
0.06
Feb 08 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Eagles 5–1
63.7%
19.8%
0.65
Feb 08 Seacoast Spartans @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 1–4
33.1%
48.9%
1.03
Feb 07 Seacoast Spartans @ Islanders Hockey Club (West) 4–2
61.1%
23.3%
0.71
Feb 07 Boston Jr Eagles @ Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall 4–1
69.0%
17.4%
0.54
Feb 07 Top Gun @ South Shore Kings 10–0
99.0%
0.2%
0.01
Feb 07 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Minuteman Flames 3–1
62.4%
21.7%
0.68
Feb 07 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Cyclones Academy 1–1
30.4%
51.0%
2.43
Feb 07 Seacoast Spartans @ Minuteman Flames 5–2
54.3%
29.1%
0.88
Feb 03 Cyclones Academy @ Islanders Hockey Club (West) 5–2
78.9%
10.5%
0.34
Feb 01 Boston Jr Eagles @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 2–4
56.6%
25.5%
1.97
Feb 01 Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall @ Minuteman Flames 2–5
54.5%
29.2%
1.78
Feb 01 Seacoast Spartans @ South Shore Kings 5–2
88.4%
5.0%
0.18
Feb 01 Islanders Hockey Club (West) @ Boston Jr Eagles 2–6
9.2%
80.5%
0.31
Feb 01 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 2–1
74.6%
12.0%
0.42
Jan 31 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Boston Jr Eagles 2–5
28.1%
52.7%
0.92
Jan 31 Islanders Hockey Club (West) @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 3–3
19.9%
64.1%
2.64 UPSET
Jan 31 Minuteman Flames @ Top Gun 2–9
4.2%
89.2%
0.16
Jan 31 Islanders Hockey Club (West) @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 1–6
19.9%
64.1%
0.64
Jan 31 South Shore Kings @ Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall 1–6
5.9%
86.9%
0.20
Jan 25 Boston Jr Eagles @ Top Gun 1–2
21.2%
62.1%
0.69
Jan 25 Seacoast Spartans @ Cyclones Academy 4–2
20.1%
65.6%
2.32
Jan 24 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Islanders Hockey Club (West) 7–3
60.4%
21.8%
0.73
Jan 24 Top Gun @ Cyclones Academy 5–2
62.6%
21.3%
0.68
Jan 24 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Seacoast Spartans 3–1
50.3%
31.5%
0.99
Jan 24 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Eagles 1–6
1.4%
95.9%
0.06
Jan 17 Islanders Hockey Club (West) @ Seacoast Spartans 2–3
25.9%
57.5%
0.80
Jan 11 Islanders Hockey Club (West) @ Minuteman Flames 3–4
37.4%
43.3%
1.21
Jan 11 Seacoast Spartans @ Top Gun 2–11
10.9%
77.1%
0.37
Jan 11 Minuteman Flames @ Cyclones Academy 3–6
12.3%
75.6%
0.40
Jan 11 South Shore Kings @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 0–4
4.9%
88.0%
0.18
Jan 10 South Shore Kings @ Top Gun 0–9
0.5%
98.1%
0.03
Jan 10 South Shore Kings @ Top Gun 1–8
0.5%
98.1%
0.03
Jan 10 Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 1–5
33.0%
49.3%
1.02
Jan 10 Seacoast Spartans @ Boston Jr Eagles 4–3
20.2%
64.3%
2.31
Jan 10 Cyclones Academy @ Minuteman Flames 6–2
73.7%
13.4%
0.44
Jan 04 Boston Jr Eagles @ Top Gun 2–1
24.5%
57.8%
2.03
Jan 04 South Shore Kings @ Minuteman Flames 1–7
14.7%
71.6%
0.48
Jan 04 Seacoast Spartans @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 2–1
33.6%
47.9%
1.57
Jan 04 Islanders Hockey Club (West) @ Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall 3–3
25.7%
58.0%
2.62 UPSET
Jan 04 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Cyclones Academy 3–1
21.7%
61.8%
2.20
Jan 03 Seacoast Spartans @ Minuteman Flames 4–4
56.7%
25.1%
2.46
Jan 03 Cyclones Academy @ Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall 3–1
68.3%
17.9%
0.55
Jan 03 Cyclones Academy @ Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall 5–5
68.3%
17.9%
2.85 UPSET
Jan 03 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Boston Jr Eagles 1–1
25.8%
57.4%
2.58 UPSET
Jan 03 Top Gun @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 4–0
72.4%
13.6%
0.47
Jan 03 South Shore Kings @ Islanders Hockey Club (West) 0–4
17.8%
67.7%
0.56
Dec 28 Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall @ South Shore Kings 6–0
81.3%
9.6%
0.30
Dec 28 Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 4–2
17.3%
66.4%
2.53 UPSET
Dec 28 Cyclones Academy @ Top Gun 4–3
25.6%
55.9%
1.96
Dec 28 Seacoast Spartans @ Islanders Hockey Club (West) 4–1
56.0%
26.5%
0.84
Dec 27 South Shore Kings @ Cyclones Academy 0–9
3.6%
91.2%
0.13
Dec 27 Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall @ Islanders Hockey Club (West) 6–3
50.4%
31.8%
0.99
Dec 27 Boston Jr Eagles @ Seacoast Spartans 0–6
75.7%
12.4%
3.01 UPSET
Dec 21 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Eagles 1–6
2.3%
94.4%
0.08
Dec 21 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 3–3
45.8%
35.0%
2.39
Dec 21 Minuteman Flames @ Islanders Hockey Club (West) 1–1
36.5%
44.0%
2.36
Dec 21 Boston Jr Eagles @ South Shore Kings 5–0
94.4%
2.3%
0.08
Dec 21 Seacoast Spartans @ Cyclones Academy 1–4
18.9%
66.2%
0.60
Dec 21 Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall @ Top Gun 1–6
9.7%
79.6%
0.33
Dec 20 Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall @ Seacoast Spartans 5–5
44.1%
37.3%
2.43
Dec 20 Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Eagles 4–1
4.8%
88.7%
4.37 UPSET
Dec 20 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ South Shore Kings 8–2
76.5%
11.8%
0.39
Dec 20 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Top Gun 2–3
16.9%
67.7%
0.56
Dec 20 Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Eagles 1–2
4.8%
88.7%
0.17
Dec 14 Islanders Hockey Club (West) @ Top Gun 1–7
8.4%
80.9%
0.31
Dec 14 Boston Jr Eagles @ South Shore Kings 11–1
92.3%
3.2%
0.12
Dec 13 Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall @ Boston Jr Eagles 0–4
16.9%
70.5%
0.50
Dec 13 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Islanders Hockey Club (West) 1–3
56.5%
25.5%
1.97
Dec 13 Top Gun @ South Shore Kings 5–0
92.9%
2.8%
0.11
Dec 07 Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall @ Seacoast Spartans 2–6
53.9%
28.3%
1.82
Dec 07 Minuteman Flames @ Top Gun 4–3
3.1%
91.3%
5.02 UPSET
Dec 06 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ South Shore Kings 6–2
79.0%
10.9%
0.34
Dec 06 Boston Jr Eagles @ Minuteman Flames 1–1
90.9%
4.1%
4.32 UPSET
Nov 30 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Islanders Hockey Club (West) 2–3
65.7%
19.7%
2.35
Nov 30 Boston Jr Eagles @ Cyclones Academy 5–4
48.0%
35.2%
1.06
Nov 30 Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall @ Minuteman Flames 5–1
67.8%
18.4%
0.56
Nov 29 Islanders Hockey Club (West) @ Cyclones Academy 1–5
16.8%
70.1%
0.51
Nov 29 Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 2–6
14.2%
72.8%
0.46
Nov 29 Islanders Hockey Club (West) @ Cyclones Academy 0–2
16.8%
70.1%
0.51
Nov 23 Boston Jr Eagles @ Islanders Hockey Club (West) 6–1
77.0%
12.6%
0.38
Nov 23 Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 3–2
34.7%
48.1%
1.53
Nov 23 Seacoast Spartans @ Top Gun 1–7
9.8%
79.0%
0.34
Nov 22 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall 3–3
53.6%
29.5%
2.56 UPSET
Nov 22 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Top Gun 2–2
14.1%
72.7%
2.92 UPSET
Nov 16 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall 4–0
40.2%
42.9%
1.31
Nov 16 Cyclones Academy @ South Shore Kings 5–3
84.5%
7.4%
0.24
Nov 16 Boston Jr Eagles @ Seacoast Spartans 6–1
67.7%
18.4%
0.56
Nov 16 Top Gun @ Minuteman Flames 9–0
82.9%
7.6%
0.27
Nov 15 Top Gun @ Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall 4–4
74.0%
13.1%
2.95 UPSET
Nov 15 Boston Jr Eagles @ Cyclones Academy 4–6
49.1%
33.3%
1.59
Nov 15 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Seacoast Spartans 0–3
55.2%
28.3%
1.82
Nov 15 Islanders Hockey Club (West) @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 5–3
18.2%
67.6%
2.46
Nov 09 Minuteman Flames @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 0–4
26.0%
58.4%
0.78
Nov 09 Boston Jr Eagles @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 2–0
48.7%
34.6%
1.04
Nov 08 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Minuteman Flames 2–1
73.3%
14.7%
0.45
Nov 08 Islanders Hockey Club (West) @ Boston Jr Eagles 2–9
21.7%
63.2%
0.66
Nov 02 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 6–1
47.3%
35.8%
1.08
Nov 02 Seacoast Spartans @ Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall 1–2
35.1%
48.5%
1.04
Nov 02 Top Gun @ Minuteman Flames 6–2
79.9%
9.0%
0.32
Nov 01 Cyclones Academy @ Minuteman Flames 3–2
69.7%
16.3%
0.52
Nov 01 Top Gun @ Islanders Hockey Club (West) 2–1
78.0%
10.2%
0.36
Nov 01 Seacoast Spartans @ South Shore Kings 3–1
58.4%
26.3%
0.78
Nov 01 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 2–2
35.3%
48.2%
2.60
Nov 01 Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall @ Boston Jr Eagles 2–3
23.3%
62.6%
0.68
Oct 26 Cyclones Academy @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 3–3
54.2%
28.6%
2.55 UPSET
Oct 26 Islanders Hockey Club (West) @ Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall 4–2
27.0%
57.3%
1.89
Oct 26 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 0–5
16.8%
71.0%
0.49
Oct 25 Minuteman Flames @ Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall 2–4
31.5%
52.2%
0.94
Oct 25 Cyclones Academy @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 1–3
60.4%
23.4%
2.09
Oct 25 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ South Shore Kings 7–2
58.6%
25.9%
0.77
Oct 19 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Boston Jr Eagles 4–6
26.3%
55.6%
0.85
Oct 19 Seacoast Spartans @ Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall 1–3
37.8%
46.6%
1.10
Oct 19 South Shore Kings @ Minuteman Flames 4–0
19.9%
66.1%
2.33
Oct 18 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall 2–5
62.3%
22.2%
2.17
Oct 18 Boston Jr Eagles @ Minuteman Flames 3–1
55.7%
29.0%
0.85
Oct 18 Top Gun @ Seacoast Spartans 6–4
76.8%
9.4%
0.38
Oct 18 South Shore Kings @ Islanders Hockey Club (West) 3–2
26.1%
58.0%
1.94
Oct 12 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 5–2
66.4%
14.2%
0.59
Oct 12 Cyclones Academy @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 3–4
57.6%
21.5%
2.22
Oct 11 Seacoast Spartans @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 1–1
30.6%
52.8%
2.59 UPSET
Oct 11 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Islanders Hockey Club (West) 1–4
73.2%
14.8%
2.76 UPSET
Oct 05 Islanders Hockey Club (West) @ Top Gun 1–3
7.6%
80.4%
0.32
Oct 05 Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall @ Cyclones Academy 0–5
19.8%
66.7%
0.58
Oct 04 Islanders Hockey Club (West) @ Seacoast Spartans 2–3
27.1%
56.3%
0.83
Oct 04 Cyclones Academy @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 1–4
66.7%
15.4%
2.70 UPSET
Oct 04 Top Gun @ Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall 2–1
81.4%
5.4%
0.30
Oct 04 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Boston Jr Eagles 0–1
38.3%
45.0%
1.15
Oct 04 Minuteman Flames @ South Shore Kings 2–4
85.9%
6.1%
4.04 UPSET
Sep 28 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Seacoast Spartans 3–5
64.8%
17.3%
2.53 UPSET
Sep 28 Minuteman Flames @ Cyclones Academy 2–2
15.4%
68.9%
2.68 UPSET
Sep 28 South Shore Kings @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 3–3
1.8%
95.0%
4.93 UPSET
Sep 27 Top Gun @ Cyclones Academy 1–1
46.4%
20.8%
1.61
Sep 27 Seacoast Spartans @ Boston Jr Eagles 0–4
31.1%
54.9%
0.86
Sep 27 Islanders Hockey Club (West) @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 1–3
12.4%
74.4%
0.43
Sep 27 Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall @ South Shore Kings 2–2
89.0%
5.5%
4.18 UPSET
Sep 21 Boston Jr Eagles @ Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall 6–4
26.4%
54.9% ⚠
1.92
Sep 21 Minuteman Flames @ South Shore Kings 4–3
78.3%
3.0% ⚠
0.35
Sep 21 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Cyclones Academy 0–2
40.6%
40.6% ⚠
1.30
Sep 21 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Top Gun 2–1 50/50 —
Sep 20 Top Gun @ Seacoast Spartans 4–0 50/50 —
Sep 20 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ South Shore Kings 5–2 50/50 —
Sep 20 Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall @ Cyclones Academy 2–2 50/50 —
Sep 14 South Shore Kings @ Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall 2–6 50/50 —
Sep 14 Boston Jr Eagles @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 2–3 50/50 —
Sep 14 Seacoast Spartans @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 2–2 50/50 —
Sep 14 Islanders Hockey Club (West) @ Minuteman Flames 1–5 50/50 —
Sep 13 Islanders Hockey Club (West) @ South Shore Kings 5–2 50/50 —
Sep 13 Cyclones Academy @ Seacoast Spartans 5–3 50/50 —
Sep 13 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall 5–2 50/50 —
Sep 13 Islanders Hockey Club (West) @ South Shore Kings 3–0 50/50 —
Sep 13 Minuteman Flames @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 4–3 50/50 —
Sep 13 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Eagles 2–0 50/50 —
Sep 07 Minuteman Flames @ Seacoast Spartans 2–2 50/50 —
Sep 06 Cyclones Academy @ Boston Jr Eagles 5–1 50/50 —
Aug 30 Boston Jr Eagles @ Islanders Hockey Club (West) 6–2 50/50 —