The Sheet
What is Surprisal?
Surprisal measures how surprising a result was, based on pre-game probabilities.
0 bits = perfectly predicted.
3+ bits = major upset.
A result is flagged as an UPSET
when surprisal exceeds 2.5 bits.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | GF | GA | PTS | Champ % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Top Gun | 35 | 28 | 4 | 3 | 168 | 45 | 59 | 0% |
| 2 | Boston Jr Eagles | 36 | 23 | 11 | 2 | 130 | 79 | 48 | 14% |
| 3 | Cyclones Academy | 36 | 18 | 9 | 9 | 113 | 77 | 45 | 0% |
| 4 | Seacoast Spartans | 36 | 17 | 12 | 7 | 100 | 101 | 41 | 0% |
| 5 | Islanders Hockey Club (East) | 35 | 17 | 12 | 6 | 106 | 80 | 40 | 0% |
| 6 | Boston Jr Terriers (Red) | 36 | 16 | 13 | 7 | 100 | 82 | 39 | 86% |
| 7 | Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall | 36 | 11 | 18 | 7 | 100 | 122 | 29 | 0% |
| 8 | Minuteman Flames | 36 | 10 | 21 | 5 | 85 | 132 | 25 | 0% |
| 9 | Islanders Hockey Club (West) | 36 | 9 | 24 | 3 | 78 | 132 | 21 | — |
| 10 | South Shore Kings | 36 | 3 | 28 | 5 | 45 | 175 | 11 | — |
Projected Finish
How the rest of the season could play out — remaining games are simulated with home ice and rating uncertainty, then finishing positions are tallied. Ranges show the likely spread, not a single guaranteed rank. An analytical model for discussion, not advice.
| # | Team | Proj. Finish | Win Division | Proj. Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Top Gun | 1 | 100% | 60 (58–60) |
| 2 | Boston Jr Eagles | 2 | <1% | 48 (48–48) |
| 3 | Cyclones Academy | 3 | <1% | 45 (45–47) |
| 4 | Seacoast Spartans | 4 | <1% | 42 (41–42) |
| 5 | Boston Jr Terriers (Red) | 5 | <1% | 40 (39–40) |
| 6 | Islanders Hockey Club (East) | 6 | <1% | 40 (40–40) |
| 7 | Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall | 7 | <1% | 29 (29–29) |
| 8 | Minuteman Flames | 8 | <1% | 25 (25–25) |
| 9 | Islanders Hockey Club (West) | 9 | <1% | 21 (21–21) |
| 10 | South Shore Kings | 10 | <1% | 8 (8–10) |
Game Log
| Date | Matchup | Score | Pre-game Probability | Surprisal | Flag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 22 | South Shore Kings @ Seacoast Spartans | 1–5 |
6%
|
0.23 | |
| Feb 22 | Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Cyclones Academy | 4–1 |
30%
|
1.71 | |
| Feb 22 | Minuteman Flames @ Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall | 6–4 |
28%
|
1.86 | |
| Feb 22 | Top Gun @ Islanders Hockey Club (West) | 6–2 |
93%
|
0.11 | |
| Feb 22 | Boston Jr Eagles @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) | 3–4 |
50%
|
1.72 | |
| Feb 21 | Top Gun @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) | 4–0 |
74%
|
0.43 | |
| Feb 21 | Cyclones Academy @ Boston Jr Eagles | 1–2 |
35%
|
1.11 | |
| Feb 21 | Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Minuteman Flames | 4–2 |
65%
|
0.62 | |
| Feb 21 | Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall @ Islanders Hockey Club (West) | 5–1 |
50%
|
0.99 | |
| Feb 21 | Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Minuteman Flames | 7–0 |
58%
|
0.79 | |
| Feb 15 | Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Top Gun | 0–7 |
11%
|
0.39 | |
| Feb 15 | Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) | 0–5 |
26%
|
0.81 | |
| Feb 15 | Minuteman Flames @ Seacoast Spartans | 1–4 |
26%
|
0.79 | |
| Feb 15 | Cyclones Academy @ Islanders Hockey Club (West) | 3–0 |
72%
|
0.48 | |
| Feb 14 | Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) | 1–2 |
38%
|
1.28 | |
| Feb 14 | Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall @ Top Gun | 0–6 |
5%
|
0.19 | |
| Feb 14 | Cyclones Academy @ Seacoast Spartans | 2–2 |
56%
|
2.52 | UPSET |
| Feb 14 | Minuteman Flames @ Islanders Hockey Club (West) | 1–3 |
44%
|
1.37 | |
| Feb 13 | Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Seacoast Spartans | 1–2 |
48%
|
1.58 | |
| Feb 08 | Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) | 2–3 |
28%
|
0.88 | |
| Feb 08 | Seacoast Spartans @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) | 1–4 |
31%
|
0.97 | |
| Feb 08 | Cyclones Academy @ South Shore Kings | 3–1 |
91%
|
0.13 | |
| Feb 08 | Top Gun @ Boston Jr Eagles | 5–1 |
60%
|
0.73 | |
| Feb 08 | Seacoast Spartans @ Islanders Hockey Club (West) | 4–2 |
56%
|
0.83 | |
| Feb 07 | Boston Jr Eagles @ Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall | 4–1 |
65%
|
0.62 | |
| Feb 07 | Top Gun @ South Shore Kings | 10–0 |
98%
|
0.04 | |
| Feb 07 | Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Minuteman Flames | 3–1 |
59%
|
0.77 | |
| Feb 07 | Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Cyclones Academy | 1–1 |
28%
|
2.39 | |
| Feb 07 | Seacoast Spartans @ Minuteman Flames | 5–2 |
48%
|
1.04 | |
| Feb 04 | Cyclones Academy @ Islanders Hockey Club (West) | 5–2 |
72%
|
0.47 | |
| Feb 01 | Top Gun @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) | 2–1 |
71%
|
0.49 | |
| Feb 01 | Boston Jr Eagles @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) | 2–4 |
55%
|
1.88 | |
| Feb 01 | Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall @ Minuteman Flames | 2–5 |
51%
|
1.60 | |
| Feb 01 | Seacoast Spartans @ South Shore Kings | 5–2 |
80%
|
0.32 | |
| Feb 01 | Islanders Hockey Club (West) @ Boston Jr Eagles | 2–6 |
10%
|
0.32 | |
| Jan 31 | Islanders Hockey Club (West) @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) | 1–6 |
22%
|
0.68 | |
| Jan 31 | Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Boston Jr Eagles | 2–5 |
26%
|
0.85 | |
| Jan 31 | Islanders Hockey Club (West) @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) | 3–3 |
21%
|
2.66 | UPSET |
| Jan 31 | Minuteman Flames @ Top Gun | 2–9 |
5%
|
0.18 | |
| Jan 31 | South Shore Kings @ Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall | 1–6 |
8%
|
0.26 | |
| Jan 25 | Boston Jr Eagles @ Top Gun | 1–2 |
21%
|
0.66 | |
| Jan 25 | Seacoast Spartans @ Cyclones Academy | 4–2 |
19%
|
2.39 | |
| Jan 25 | Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Islanders Hockey Club (West) | 7–3 |
55%
|
0.86 | |
| Jan 24 | Top Gun @ Cyclones Academy | 5–2 |
58%
|
0.77 | |
| Jan 24 | Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Seacoast Spartans | 3–1 |
47%
|
1.08 | |
| Jan 24 | South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Eagles | 1–6 |
2%
|
0.09 | |
| Jan 17 | Islanders Hockey Club (West) @ Seacoast Spartans | 2–3 |
28%
|
0.87 | |
| Jan 11 | Seacoast Spartans @ Top Gun | 2–11 |
10%
|
0.36 | |
| Jan 11 | Minuteman Flames @ Cyclones Academy | 3–6 |
14%
|
0.46 | |
| Jan 11 | Islanders Hockey Club (West) @ Minuteman Flames | 3–4 |
36%
|
1.14 | |
| Jan 11 | South Shore Kings @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) | 0–4 |
7%
|
0.24 | |
| Jan 10 | South Shore Kings @ Top Gun | 0–9 |
1%
|
0.05 | |
| Jan 10 | South Shore Kings @ Top Gun | 1–8 |
1%
|
0.06 | |
| Jan 10 | Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) | 1–5 |
32%
|
1.00 | |
| Jan 10 | Cyclones Academy @ Minuteman Flames | 6–2 |
66%
|
0.59 | |
| Jan 10 | Seacoast Spartans @ Boston Jr Eagles | 4–3 |
18%
|
2.46 | |
| Jan 04 | Seacoast Spartans @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) | 2–1 |
31%
|
1.70 | |
| Jan 04 | Boston Jr Eagles @ Top Gun | 2–1 |
24%
|
2.04 | |
| Jan 04 | Islanders Hockey Club (West) @ Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall | 3–3 |
26%
|
2.65 | UPSET |
| Jan 04 | South Shore Kings @ Minuteman Flames | 1–7 |
16%
|
0.53 | |
| Jan 04 | Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Cyclones Academy | 3–1 |
21%
|
2.23 | |
| Jan 03 | Top Gun @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) | 4–0 |
69%
|
0.53 | |
| Jan 03 | Cyclones Academy @ Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall | 3–1 |
60%
|
0.73 | |
| Jan 03 | Cyclones Academy @ Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall | 5–5 |
61%
|
2.65 | UPSET |
| Jan 03 | Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Boston Jr Eagles | 1–1 |
24%
|
2.61 | UPSET |
| Jan 03 | Seacoast Spartans @ Minuteman Flames | 4–4 |
49%
|
2.37 | |
| Jan 03 | South Shore Kings @ Islanders Hockey Club (West) | 0–4 |
19%
|
0.60 | |
| Dec 28 | Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) | 4–2 |
19%
|
2.39 | |
| Dec 28 | Cyclones Academy @ Top Gun | 4–3 |
24%
|
2.06 | |
| Dec 28 | Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall @ South Shore Kings | 6–0 |
73%
|
0.45 | |
| Dec 28 | Seacoast Spartans @ Islanders Hockey Club (West) | 4–1 |
48%
|
1.05 | |
| Dec 27 | South Shore Kings @ Cyclones Academy | 0–9 |
6%
|
0.23 | |
| Dec 27 | Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall @ Islanders Hockey Club (West) | 6–3 |
46%
|
1.11 | |
| Dec 27 | Boston Jr Eagles @ Seacoast Spartans | 0–6 |
73%
|
2.81 | UPSET |
| Dec 22 | Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) | 3–3 |
43%
|
2.38 | |
| Dec 21 | Minuteman Flames @ Islanders Hockey Club (West) | 1–1 |
35%
|
2.41 | |
| Dec 21 | Boston Jr Eagles @ South Shore Kings | 5–0 |
89%
|
0.17 | |
| Dec 21 | Seacoast Spartans @ Cyclones Academy | 1–4 |
19%
|
0.63 | |
| Dec 21 | Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall @ Top Gun | 1–6 |
10%
|
0.34 | |
| Dec 21 | South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Eagles | 1–6 |
4%
|
0.14 | |
| Dec 20 | Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Eagles | 4–1 |
7%
|
3.89 | UPSET |
| Dec 20 | Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall @ Seacoast Spartans | 5–5 |
43%
|
2.39 | |
| Dec 20 | Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ South Shore Kings | 8–2 |
66%
|
0.59 | |
| Dec 20 | Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Top Gun | 2–3 |
17%
|
0.56 | |
| Dec 20 | Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Eagles | 1–2 |
6%
|
0.20 | |
| Dec 14 | Islanders Hockey Club (West) @ Top Gun | 1–7 |
9%
|
0.33 | |
| Dec 14 | Boston Jr Eagles @ South Shore Kings | 11–1 |
84%
|
0.26 | |
| Dec 13 | Top Gun @ South Shore Kings | 5–0 |
84%
|
0.25 | |
| Dec 13 | Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall @ Boston Jr Eagles | 0–4 |
17%
|
0.51 | |
| Dec 13 | Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Islanders Hockey Club (West) | 1–3 |
50%
|
1.67 | |
| Dec 07 | Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall @ Seacoast Spartans | 2–6 |
51%
|
1.71 | |
| Dec 07 | Minuteman Flames @ Top Gun | 4–3 |
4%
|
4.54 | UPSET |
| Dec 06 | Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ South Shore Kings | 6–2 |
66%
|
0.61 | |
| Dec 06 | Boston Jr Eagles @ Minuteman Flames | 1–1 |
85%
|
3.70 | UPSET |
| Nov 30 | Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Islanders Hockey Club (West) | 2–3 |
58%
|
2.01 | |
| Nov 30 | Boston Jr Eagles @ Cyclones Academy | 5–4 |
44%
|
1.17 | |
| Nov 30 | Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall @ Minuteman Flames | 5–1 |
60%
|
0.73 | |
| Nov 29 | Islanders Hockey Club (West) @ Cyclones Academy | 1–5 |
18%
|
0.61 | |
| Nov 29 | Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) | 2–6 |
16%
|
0.54 | |
| Nov 29 | Islanders Hockey Club (West) @ Cyclones Academy | 0–2 |
19%
|
0.61 | |
| Nov 23 | Seacoast Spartans @ Top Gun | 1–7 |
10%
|
0.40 | |
| Nov 23 | Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) | 3–2 |
33%
|
1.59 | |
| Nov 23 | Boston Jr Eagles @ Islanders Hockey Club (West) | 6–1 |
68%
|
0.55 | |
| Nov 22 | Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall | 3–3 |
49%
|
2.42 | |
| Nov 16 | Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall | 4–0 |
37%
|
1.43 | |
| Nov 16 | Cyclones Academy @ South Shore Kings | 5–3 |
68%
|
0.55 | |
| Nov 16 | Boston Jr Eagles @ Seacoast Spartans | 6–1 |
61%
|
0.71 | |
| Nov 16 | Top Gun @ Minuteman Flames | 9–0 |
73%
|
0.45 | |
| Nov 15 | Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Seacoast Spartans | 0–3 |
49%
|
1.66 | |
| Nov 15 | Top Gun @ Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall | 4–4 |
64%
|
2.53 | UPSET |
| Nov 15 | Boston Jr Eagles @ Cyclones Academy | 4–6 |
46%
|
1.58 | |
| Nov 15 | Islanders Hockey Club (West) @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) | 5–3 |
21%
|
2.25 | |
| Nov 10 | Boston Jr Eagles @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) | 2–0 |
45%
|
1.15 | |
| Nov 09 | Minuteman Flames @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) | 0–4 |
28%
|
0.85 | |
| Nov 08 | Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Minuteman Flames | 2–1 |
62%
|
0.69 | |
| Nov 08 | Islanders Hockey Club (West) @ Boston Jr Eagles | 2–9 |
24%
|
0.76 | |
| Nov 03 | Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) | 6–1 |
43%
|
1.23 | |
| Nov 02 | Seacoast Spartans @ Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall | 1–2 |
32%
|
1.00 | |
| Nov 02 | Top Gun @ Minuteman Flames | 6–2 |
66%
|
0.59 | |
| Nov 01 | Cyclones Academy @ Minuteman Flames | 3–2 |
56%
|
0.84 | |
| Nov 01 | Top Gun @ Islanders Hockey Club (West) | 2–1 |
64%
|
0.65 | |
| Nov 01 | Seacoast Spartans @ South Shore Kings | 3–1 |
44%
|
1.19 | |
| Nov 01 | Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) | 2–2 |
34%
|
2.51 | UPSET |
| Nov 01 | Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall @ Boston Jr Eagles | 2–3 |
24%
|
0.72 | |
| Oct 26 | Cyclones Academy @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) | 3–3 |
47%
|
2.28 | |
| Oct 26 | South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) | 0–5 |
23%
|
0.76 | |
| Oct 26 | Islanders Hockey Club (West) @ Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall | 4–2 |
30%
|
1.73 | |
| Oct 25 | Minuteman Flames @ Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall | 2–4 |
35%
|
1.05 | |
| Oct 25 | Cyclones Academy @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) | 1–3 |
50%
|
1.81 | |
| Oct 25 | Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ South Shore Kings | 7–2 |
44%
|
1.17 | |
| Oct 19 | Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Boston Jr Eagles | 4–6 |
26%
|
0.87 | |
| Oct 19 | Seacoast Spartans @ Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall | 1–3 |
32%
|
0.94 | |
| Oct 19 | South Shore Kings @ Minuteman Flames | 4–0 |
23%
|
2.12 | |
| Oct 18 | Top Gun @ Seacoast Spartans | 6–4 |
63%
|
0.68 | |
| Oct 18 | South Shore Kings @ Islanders Hockey Club (West) | 3–2 |
28%
|
1.84 | |
| Oct 18 | Boston Jr Eagles @ Minuteman Flames | 3–1 |
43%
|
1.22 | |
| Oct 18 | Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall | 2–5 |
52%
|
1.73 | |
| Oct 12 | Top Gun @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) | 5–2 |
49%
|
1.04 | |
| Oct 12 | Cyclones Academy @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) | 3–4 |
48%
|
1.88 | |
| Oct 11 | Seacoast Spartans @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) | 1–1 |
28%
|
2.32 | |
| Oct 11 | Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Islanders Hockey Club (West) | 1–4 |
58%
|
2.01 | |
| Oct 05 | Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall @ Cyclones Academy | 0–5 |
26%
|
0.84 | |
| Oct 05 | Islanders Hockey Club (West) @ Top Gun | 1–3 |
17%
|
0.67 | |
| Oct 04 | Top Gun @ Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall | 2–1 |
55%
|
0.86 | |
| Oct 04 | Islanders Hockey Club (West) @ Seacoast Spartans | 2–3 |
42%
|
1.34 | |
| Oct 04 | Cyclones Academy @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) | 1–4 |
48%
|
1.79 | |
| Oct 04 | Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Boston Jr Eagles | 0–1 |
36%
|
1.12 | |
| Oct 04 | Minuteman Flames @ South Shore Kings | 2–4 |
68%
|
2.61 | UPSET |
| Sep 28 | South Shore Kings @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) | 3–3 |
14%
|
2.60 | UPSET |
| Sep 28 | Minuteman Flames @ Cyclones Academy | 2–2 |
31%
|
2.23 | |
| Sep 28 | Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Seacoast Spartans | 3–5 |
59%
|
2.27 | |
| Sep 28 | Top Gun @ Cyclones Academy | 1–1 |
34%
|
1.82 | |
| Sep 27 | Islanders Hockey Club (West) @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) | 1–3 |
28%
|
0.89 | |
| Sep 27 | Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall @ South Shore Kings | 2–2 |
62%
|
2.65 | UPSET |
| Sep 27 | Seacoast Spartans @ Boston Jr Eagles | 0–4 |
26%
|
0.80 | |
| Sep 21 | Boston Jr Eagles @ Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall | 6–4 |
32%
|
1.63 | |
| Sep 21 | Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Cyclones Academy | 0–2 |
34%
|
1.18 | |
| Sep 21 | Minuteman Flames @ South Shore Kings | 4–3 |
70%
|
0.52 | |
| Sep 21 | Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Top Gun | 2–1 | 50/50 | — | |
| Sep 20 | Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ South Shore Kings | 5–2 |
58%
⚠Fewer than 20 games in training sample |
0.79 | |
| Sep 20 | Top Gun @ Seacoast Spartans | 4–0 | 50/50 | — | |
| Sep 20 | Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall @ Cyclones Academy | 2–2 | 50/50 | — | |
| Sep 14 | Boston Jr Eagles @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) | 2–3 | 50/50 | — | |
| Sep 14 | Seacoast Spartans @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) | 2–2 | 50/50 | — | |
| Sep 14 | Islanders Hockey Club (West) @ Minuteman Flames | 1–5 | 50/50 | — | |
| Sep 14 | South Shore Kings @ Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall | 2–6 | 50/50 | — | |
| Sep 14 | Islanders Hockey Club (West) @ South Shore Kings | 5–2 | 50/50 | — | |
| Sep 13 | Cyclones Academy @ Seacoast Spartans | 5–3 | 50/50 | — | |
| Sep 13 | Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall | 5–2 | 50/50 | — | |
| Sep 13 | Islanders Hockey Club (West) @ South Shore Kings | 3–0 | 50/50 | — | |
| Sep 13 | Minuteman Flames @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) | 4–3 | 50/50 | — | |
| Sep 13 | Top Gun @ Boston Jr Eagles | 2–0 | 50/50 | — | |
| Sep 07 | Minuteman Flames @ Seacoast Spartans | 2–2 | 50/50 | — | |
| Sep 06 | Cyclones Academy @ Boston Jr Eagles | 5–1 | 50/50 | — | |
| Aug 30 | Boston Jr Eagles @ Islanders Hockey Club (West) | 6–2 | 50/50 | — | |
| Aug 01 | Cyclones Academy @ Top Gun | 0–0 | 50/50 | — | |
| Aug 01 | South Shore Kings @ Cyclones Academy | 0–0 | 50/50 | — | |
| Aug 01 | South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) | 0–0 | 50/50 | — | |
| Aug 01 | South Shore Kings @ Seacoast Spartans | 0–0 | 50/50 | — |