The Sheet

What is Surprisal? Surprisal measures how surprising a result was, based on pre-game probabilities. 0 bits = perfectly predicted. 3+ bits = major upset. A result is flagged as an UPSET when surprisal exceeds 2.5 bits.

Standings

# Team GP W L T GF GA PTS Champ %
1 Islanders Hockey Club 36 28 4 4 184 67 60 82%
2 Boston Jr Eagles 37 28 5 4 189 89 60 11%
3 Minuteman Flames 36 21 12 3 121 110 45 5%
4 Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite 38 18 15 5 130 101 41 0%
5 Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers 14 13 0 1 100 26 27 —
6 South Shore Kings 37 11 22 4 88 133 26 2%
7 Top Gun 36 8 22 6 70 149 22 0%
8 Boston Jr Terriers 35 8 26 1 74 162 17 0%
9 Providence Capitals - Andreozzi 37 3 32 2 50 169 8 0%

Projected Finish

How the rest of the season could play out — remaining games are simulated with home ice and rating uncertainty, then finishing positions are tallied. Ranges show the likely spread, not a single guaranteed rank. An analytical model for discussion, not advice.

# Team Proj. Finish Win Division Proj. Points
1 Islanders Hockey Club 1 95% 62 (62–62)
2 Boston Jr Eagles 2 5% 62 (60–62)
3 Minuteman Flames 3 <1% 45 (45–47)
4 Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite 4 <1% 41 (41–41)
5 Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers 5 <1% 31 (31–31)
6 South Shore Kings 6 <1% 26 (26–26)
7 Top Gun 7 <1% 22 (22–22)
8 Boston Jr Terriers 8 <1% 17 (17–17)
9 Providence Capitals - Andreozzi 9 <1% 8 (8–8)

Game Log

Oldest first
Date Matchup Score Pre-game Probability Surprisal Flag
Aug 01 Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers @ Boston Jr Terriers Upcoming 50/50 —
Aug 01 Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers @ Boston Jr Terriers Upcoming 50/50 —
Aug 01 Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Eagles Upcoming 50/50 —
Aug 01 Islanders Hockey Club @ Top Gun Upcoming 50/50 —
Sep 06 Top Gun @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite 0–3 50/50 —
Sep 07 Top Gun @ Minuteman Flames 2–7 50/50 —
Sep 13 Minuteman Flames @ Providence Capitals - Andreozzi 8–1 50/50 —
Sep 13 Boston Jr Terriers @ Boston Jr Eagles 3–7 50/50 —
Sep 13 Top Gun @ South Shore Kings 4–3 50/50 —
Sep 14 Minuteman Flames @ Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers 3–8 50/50 —
Sep 14 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Terriers 3–1 50/50 —
Sep 14 Minuteman Flames @ Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers 0–8 50/50 —
Sep 14 Boston Jr Eagles @ Islanders Hockey Club 5–5 50/50 —
Sep 14 Top Gun @ Providence Capitals - Andreozzi 1–1 50/50 —
Sep 20 Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Eagles 3–6 50/50 —
Sep 20 Boston Jr Terriers @ Providence Capitals - Andreozzi 3–4 50/50 —
Sep 20 Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ Top Gun 2–2 50/50 —
Sep 20 South Shore Kings @ Islanders Hockey Club 5–8 50/50 —
Sep 21 Boston Jr Eagles @ Providence Capitals - Andreozzi 7–1
78% 12%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
0.35
Sep 21 South Shore Kings @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite 4–0 50/50 —
Sep 21 Boston Jr Eagles @ Providence Capitals - Andreozzi 7–3
87% 6%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
0.20
Sep 21 Boston Jr Terriers @ Minuteman Flames 2–3
19% 70%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
0.52
Sep 27 Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ Providence Capitals - Andreozzi 2–0
57% 26%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
0.81
Sep 27 Boston Jr Eagles @ Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers 4–10 50/50 —
Sep 27 Top Gun @ South Shore Kings 5–1
21% 65%
2.27
Sep 27 Boston Jr Eagles @ Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers 4–5
11% 82%
0.28
Sep 27 Minuteman Flames @ Islanders Hockey Club 4–2 50/50 —
Sep 28 Islanders Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Terriers 7–1
64% 23%
0.64
Sep 28 Minuteman Flames @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite 2–2
50% 31%
2.42
Sep 28 South Shore Kings @ Providence Capitals - Andreozzi 7–2
64% 22%
0.64
Sep 28 Islanders Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Terriers 9–2
79% 12%
0.34
Oct 04 Top Gun @ Providence Capitals - Andreozzi 1–1
65% 20%
2.72 UPSET
Oct 04 Islanders Hockey Club @ South Shore Kings 5–2
65% 24%
0.63
Oct 05 Top Gun @ Islanders Hockey Club 0–1
13% 76%
0.39
Oct 11 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Terriers 1–3
56% 26%
1.93
Oct 11 Providence Capitals - Andreozzi @ Islanders Hockey Club 0–2
4% 92%
0.12
Oct 11 South Shore Kings @ Minuteman Flames 6–3
27% 60%
1.89
Oct 11 Boston Jr Eagles @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite 4–3
60% 25%
0.73
Oct 12 South Shore Kings @ Top Gun 4–1
54% 30%
0.90
Oct 12 Providence Capitals - Andreozzi @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite 1–3
16% 67%
0.57
Oct 18 Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ Boston Jr Terriers 3–1
59% 23%
0.76
Oct 18 Minuteman Flames @ Providence Capitals - Andreozzi 4–1
76% 13%
0.39
Oct 18 Boston Jr Eagles @ Top Gun 6–1
73% 15%
0.45
Oct 19 Providence Capitals - Andreozzi @ Boston Jr Terriers 2–5
30% 52%
0.94
Oct 19 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Eagles 4–6
21% 69%
0.54
Oct 19 Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ Minuteman Flames 4–6
34% 47%
1.09
Oct 19 Top Gun @ Islanders Hockey Club 2–7
10% 78%
0.36
Oct 25 Boston Jr Terriers @ Boston Jr Eagles 0–6
6% 89%
0.17
Nov 01 Minuteman Flames @ Top Gun 5–0
66% 19%
0.60
Nov 01 Islanders Hockey Club @ Providence Capitals - Andreozzi 8–1
90% 4%
0.16
Nov 02 Providence Capitals - Andreozzi @ Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers 1–4
0% 99%
0.02
Nov 02 South Shore Kings @ Minuteman Flames 2–4
35% 52%
0.96
Nov 02 Providence Capitals - Andreozzi @ Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers 0–9
1% 98%
0.04
Nov 02 Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ Islanders Hockey Club 0–4
15% 71%
0.49
Nov 08 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Eagles 1–8
6% 88%
0.19
Nov 09 Providence Capitals - Andreozzi @ Minuteman Flames 0–4
6% 87%
0.20
Nov 15 Boston Jr Terriers @ Providence Capitals - Andreozzi 2–3
54% 27%
1.88
Nov 15 Boston Jr Eagles @ Minuteman Flames 3–1
58% 30%
0.79
Nov 15 Top Gun @ South Shore Kings 1–1
14% 73%
2.97 UPSET
Nov 15 Islanders Hockey Club @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite 5–4
71% 15%
0.49
Nov 16 Providence Capitals - Andreozzi @ Islanders Hockey Club 1–7
2% 94%
0.09
Nov 16 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Terriers 5–1
36% 43%
1.48
Nov 16 Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ Boston Jr Eagles 0–3
13% 76%
0.39
Nov 16 Minuteman Flames @ South Shore Kings 3–1
50% 35%
1.00
Nov 16 Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ Boston Jr Eagles 1–3
12% 76%
0.39
Nov 22 Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers @ South Shore Kings 10–2
88% 6%
0.18
Nov 22 Islanders Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Eagles 6–2
38% 48%
1.38
Nov 22 Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers @ South Shore Kings 8–0
92% 4%
0.12
Nov 22 Boston Jr Terriers @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite 3–2
19% 64%
2.41
Nov 23 Boston Jr Terriers @ Islanders Hockey Club 2–7
3% 94%
0.09
Nov 23 Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers @ Top Gun 11–1
97% 1%
0.05
Nov 23 Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers @ Top Gun 8–0
98% 1%
0.03
Nov 23 South Shore Kings @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite 1–3
42% 39%
1.35
Nov 23 Providence Capitals - Andreozzi @ Boston Jr Eagles 1–8
2% 95%
0.08
Nov 29 Providence Capitals - Andreozzi @ Top Gun 1–4
28% 50%
0.99
Nov 29 Boston Jr Eagles @ South Shore Kings 2–2
78% 13%
3.42 UPSET
Nov 29 Providence Capitals - Andreozzi @ Top Gun 3–4
25% 54%
0.89
Nov 29 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Eagles 0–6
12% 79%
0.34
Nov 30 Providence Capitals - Andreozzi @ South Shore Kings 3–0
13% 74%
2.99 UPSET
Nov 30 Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ Boston Jr Eagles 4–6
12% 76%
0.39
Nov 30 Top Gun @ Minuteman Flames 1–3
10% 79%
0.34
Nov 30 Boston Jr Eagles @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite 4–3
72% 15%
0.46
Dec 06 Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers @ Islanders Hockey Club 4–4
76% 15%
3.37 UPSET
Dec 06 South Shore Kings @ Minuteman Flames 2–4
19% 68%
0.57
Dec 06 Boston Jr Terriers @ Boston Jr Eagles 2–8
3% 93%
0.10
Dec 06 Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers @ Islanders Hockey Club 3–0
71% 18%
0.49
Dec 06 Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ Providence Capitals - Andreozzi 6–1
66% 17%
0.61
Dec 07 Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite 5–3
92% 3%
0.12
Dec 07 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Eagles 5–5
4% 91%
4.27 UPSET
Dec 07 Providence Capitals - Andreozzi @ Boston Jr Terriers 3–4
28% 54%
0.89
Dec 07 South Shore Kings @ Islanders Hockey Club 0–6
7% 85%
0.23
Dec 07 Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite 7–4
90% 4%
0.14
Dec 07 South Shore Kings @ Islanders Hockey Club 3–2
6% 87%
4.04 UPSET
Dec 13 Boston Jr Terriers @ Minuteman Flames 0–5
8% 83%
0.27
Dec 13 Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ South Shore Kings 7–4
48% 33%
1.07
Dec 14 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Terriers 5–3
44% 37%
1.18
Dec 14 Minuteman Flames @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite 4–3
50% 32%
1.00
Dec 20 Islanders Hockey Club @ Minuteman Flames 3–3
59% 26%
2.71 UPSET
Dec 20 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Eagles 3–5
6% 88%
0.18
Dec 20 Boston Jr Terriers @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite 1–8
13% 74%
0.43
Dec 21 Islanders Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Terriers 9–1
94% 3%
0.10
Dec 21 Boston Jr Eagles @ South Shore Kings 3–0
78% 12%
0.36
Dec 21 Minuteman Flames @ Providence Capitals - Andreozzi 2–1
85% 6%
0.23
Dec 21 Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ Top Gun 7–1
62% 21%
0.69
Dec 27 Providence Capitals - Andreozzi @ South Shore Kings 0–3
16% 68%
0.55
Dec 27 Islanders Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Eagles 2–1
48% 37%
1.07
Dec 27 Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ Minuteman Flames 4–4
32% 51%
2.53 UPSET
Dec 27 Providence Capitals - Andreozzi @ South Shore Kings 1–4
15% 70%
0.52
Dec 27 Boston Jr Eagles @ Islanders Hockey Club 1–6
31% 54%
0.89
Dec 28 Islanders Hockey Club @ Providence Capitals - Andreozzi 5–0
95% 2%
0.08
Dec 28 South Shore Kings @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite 2–7
24% 60%
0.72
Jan 03 Boston Jr Terriers @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite 2–4
8% 84%
0.24
Jan 03 Boston Jr Eagles @ Providence Capitals - Andreozzi 8–2
93% 3%
0.11
Jan 03 Minuteman Flames @ Islanders Hockey Club 0–7
18% 68%
0.55
Jan 04 Boston Jr Eagles @ Minuteman Flames 5–1
56% 29%
0.83
Jan 04 Boston Jr Eagles @ Minuteman Flames 6–1
59% 27%
0.76
Jan 04 Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ Islanders Hockey Club 1–1
13% 75%
3.07 UPSET
Jan 10 Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ Minuteman Flames 5–2
40% 42%
1.31
Jan 10 Islanders Hockey Club @ Top Gun 8–2
90% 4%
0.15
Jan 10 Providence Capitals - Andreozzi @ Boston Jr Eagles 0–7
2% 96%
0.07
Jan 10 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Terriers 2–3
62% 23%
2.10
Jan 11 Minuteman Flames @ South Shore Kings 2–3
58% 26%
1.96
Jan 11 Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ Providence Capitals - Andreozzi 2–0
83% 7%
0.26
Jan 11 Boston Jr Eagles @ Top Gun 4–0
88% 6%
0.18
Jan 11 Boston Jr Terriers @ Islanders Hockey Club 3–11
1% 97%
0.05
Jan 17 Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ Top Gun 4–1
71% 15%
0.49
Jan 18 Boston Jr Terriers @ Top Gun 2–4
32% 51%
0.97
Jan 24 Islanders Hockey Club @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite 5–2
68% 18%
0.56
Jan 24 South Shore Kings @ Top Gun 0–0
50% 31%
2.45
Jan 25 Boston Jr Eagles @ Boston Jr Terriers 6–1
94% 2%
0.08
Jan 25 Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ South Shore Kings 3–1
61% 23%
0.72
Jan 25 Providence Capitals - Andreozzi @ Minuteman Flames 2–4
7% 84%
0.25
Jan 29 Top Gun @ Islanders Hockey Club 2–8
2% 93%
0.10
Jan 31 Islanders Hockey Club @ Minuteman Flames 5–0
75% 13%
0.41
Jan 31 Boston Jr Terriers @ South Shore Kings 4–1
21% 65%
2.26
Jan 31 Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ Boston Jr Eagles 4–4
21% 65%
2.85 UPSET
Jan 31 Providence Capitals - Andreozzi @ Top Gun 3–5
23% 58%
0.79
Jan 31 Minuteman Flames @ Islanders Hockey Club 2–6
10% 81%
0.30
Feb 01 Islanders Hockey Club @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite 3–2
70% 16%
0.51
Feb 01 South Shore Kings @ Providence Capitals - Andreozzi 5–2
63% 19%
0.67
Feb 01 Boston Jr Terriers @ Minuteman Flames 0–2
11% 79%
0.34
Feb 06 Boston Jr Eagles @ Boston Jr Terriers 9–2
93% 3%
0.10
Feb 07 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Eagles 2–7
7% 86%
0.22
Feb 07 Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Terriers 6–3
75% 14%
0.42
Feb 07 Islanders Hockey Club @ Providence Capitals - Andreozzi 5–0
97% 1%
0.05
Feb 08 Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ Boston Jr Terriers 6–2
81% 10%
0.31
Feb 08 Top Gun @ Minuteman Flames 2–6
16% 70%
0.51
Feb 08 Boston Jr Eagles @ Islanders Hockey Club 3–1
26% 59%
1.92
Feb 14 Boston Jr Terriers @ Top Gun 3–1
32% 52%
1.67
Feb 15 Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Terriers 3–2
76% 13%
0.40
Feb 21 Boston Jr Terriers @ South Shore Kings 2–2
23% 61%
2.71 UPSET
Feb 21 Minuteman Flames @ Top Gun 7–2
68% 18%
0.56
Feb 21 Providence Capitals - Andreozzi @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite 2–5
5% 87%
0.20
Feb 21 Boston Jr Terriers @ South Shore Kings 1–3
24% 60%
0.74
Feb 22 Top Gun @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite 0–4
10% 79%
0.34
Feb 22 Islanders Hockey Club @ South Shore Kings 4–3
88% 5%
0.18
Feb 22 Boston Jr Terriers @ Providence Capitals - Andreozzi 4–2
49% 32%
1.02