The Sheet

What is Surprisal? Surprisal measures how surprising a result was, based on pre-game probabilities. 0 bits = perfectly predicted. 3+ bits = major upset. A result is flagged as an UPSET when surprisal exceeds 2.5 bits.

Standings

# Team GP W L T GF GA PTS Champ %
1 Bulldogs Hockey Club 36 25 6 5 177 106 55 6%
2 Boston Jr Terriers (White) 36 22 9 5 161 104 49 7%
3 Boston Jr Eagles 36 21 9 6 151 107 48 57%
4 BOSTON VIPERS 2016 36 20 9 7 147 118 47 7%
5 South Shore Kings 35 19 12 4 124 105 42 0%
6 NorthStars Hockey Club 36 11 21 4 102 124 26 0%
7 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 36 12 23 1 114 160 25 23%
8 Islanders Hockey Club (East) 36 11 22 3 93 134 25 0%
9 MassConn United Hockey Club 35 10 22 3 120 145 23 —
10 Bay State Breakers 2016 Platinum 36 7 25 4 100 186 18 —

Projected Finish

How the rest of the season could play out — remaining games are simulated with home ice and rating uncertainty, then finishing positions are tallied. Ranges show the likely spread, not a single guaranteed rank. An analytical model for discussion, not advice.

# Team Proj. Finish Win Division Proj. Points
1 Bulldogs Hockey Club 1 100% 55 (55–55)
2 Boston Jr Terriers (White) 2 <1% 49 (49–49)
3 Boston Jr Eagles 3 <1% 48 (48–48)
4 BOSTON VIPERS 2016 4 <1% 47 (47–47)
5 South Shore Kings 5 <1% 44 (42–44)
6 NorthStars Hockey Club 6 <1% 26 (26–26)
7 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 7 <1% 25 (25–25)
8 Islanders Hockey Club (East) 8 (8–9) <1% 25 (25–25)
9 MassConn United Hockey Club 9 (8–9) <1% 23 (23–25)
10 Bay State Breakers 2016 Platinum 10 <1% 18 (18–18)

Game Log

Oldest first
Date Matchup Score Pre-game Probability Surprisal Flag
Aug 01 MassConn United Hockey Club @ South Shore Kings Upcoming — —
Sep 06 Boston Jr Terriers (White) @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Platinum 7–4 50/50 —
Sep 06 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ BOSTON VIPERS 2016 4–8 50/50 —
Sep 06 South Shore Kings @ MassConn United Hockey Club 5–3 50/50 —
Sep 06 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Boston Jr Eagles 3–4 50/50 —
Sep 06 NorthStars Hockey Club @ Bulldogs Hockey Club 1–3 50/50 —
Sep 07 Bulldogs Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 7–4 50/50 —
Sep 13 Boston Jr Terriers (White) @ Boston Jr Eagles 6–4 50/50 —
Sep 13 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ BOSTON VIPERS 2016 2–9 50/50 —
Sep 13 NorthStars Hockey Club @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Platinum 3–0 50/50 —
Sep 13 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ South Shore Kings 1–3 50/50 —
Sep 13 Bulldogs Hockey Club @ MassConn United Hockey Club 6–2 50/50 —
Sep 14 Boston Jr Terriers (White) @ Bulldogs Hockey Club 4–6 50/50 —
Sep 14 Bay State Breakers 2016 Platinum @ South Shore Kings 6–5 50/50 —
Sep 14 Boston Jr Eagles @ NorthStars Hockey Club 7–4 50/50 —
Sep 20 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Boston Jr Terriers (White) 0–6 50/50 —
Sep 20 Bay State Breakers 2016 Platinum @ MassConn United Hockey Club 3–7
44% 41%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
1.30
Sep 20 Bulldogs Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Eagles 6–5
62% 26%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
0.69
Sep 21 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Boston Jr Terriers (White) 3–5
12% 79%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
0.34
Sep 21 Bay State Breakers 2016 Platinum @ Bulldogs Hockey Club 1–6
7% 87%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
0.20
Sep 21 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Boston Jr Eagles 4–4
15% 75%
3.35 UPSET
Sep 27 BOSTON VIPERS 2016 @ South Shore Kings 3–4 50/50 —
Sep 27 Bulldogs Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Terriers (White) 0–5
48% 38%
1.41
Sep 27 NorthStars Hockey Club @ MassConn United Hockey Club 6–4
39% 44%
1.37
Sep 27 Boston Jr Eagles @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 7–0
60% 28%
0.74
Sep 27 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Platinum 2–4
44% 41%
1.27
Sep 28 NorthStars Hockey Club @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Platinum 2–2
59% 27%
2.83 UPSET
Sep 28 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Bulldogs Hockey Club 1–6
10% 81%
0.31
Sep 28 MassConn United Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Eagles 2–5
23% 65%
0.61
Sep 28 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ BOSTON VIPERS 2016 1–4
9% 85%
0.24
Oct 04 Boston Jr Eagles @ Boston Jr Terriers (White) 5–4
25% 62%
1.98
Oct 04 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ NorthStars Hockey Club 2–1
20% 66%
2.35
Oct 04 Bay State Breakers 2016 Platinum @ MassConn United Hockey Club 5–5
32% 53%
2.81 UPSET
Oct 04 Bulldogs Hockey Club @ South Shore Kings 2–7
58% 26%
1.92
Oct 05 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 5–2
42% 40%
1.24
Oct 05 NorthStars Hockey Club @ BOSTON VIPERS 2016 6–4
21% 66%
2.26
Oct 05 MassConn United Hockey Club @ Bulldogs Hockey Club 0–4
18% 71%
0.50
Oct 11 MassConn United Hockey Club @ BOSTON VIPERS 2016 4–2
20% 69%
2.35
Oct 11 Boston Jr Eagles @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 2–4
70% 18%
2.47
Oct 11 Bulldogs Hockey Club @ NorthStars Hockey Club 4–3
56% 29%
0.84
Oct 12 BOSTON VIPERS 2016 @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 5–0
58% 28%
0.79
Oct 18 Bay State Breakers 2016 Platinum @ Boston Jr Terriers (White) 1–8
11% 80%
0.32
Oct 18 NorthStars Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Eagles 2–4
31% 54%
0.88
Oct 18 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ MassConn United Hockey Club 3–4
20% 66%
0.59
Oct 18 South Shore Kings @ Bulldogs Hockey Club 2–6
34% 50%
0.99
Oct 19 Boston Jr Terriers (White) @ BOSTON VIPERS 2016 4–4
59% 28%
2.96 UPSET
Oct 19 NorthStars Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 2–3
66% 20%
2.30
Oct 25 Bay State Breakers 2016 Platinum @ NorthStars Hockey Club 0–9
26% 60%
0.74
Oct 25 Boston Jr Terriers (White) @ South Shore Kings 0–1
58% 28%
1.83
Oct 25 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 4–2
46% 36%
1.11
Oct 26 Bulldogs Hockey Club @ BOSTON VIPERS 2016 3–4
50% 37%
1.45
Oct 26 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ South Shore Kings 3–2
12% 77%
3.08 UPSET
Nov 01 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Boston Jr Eagles 2–2
17% 72%
3.13 UPSET
Nov 01 South Shore Kings @ NorthStars Hockey Club 4–1
41% 41%
1.30
Nov 02 Boston Jr Terriers (White) @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 6–1
72% 15%
0.47
Nov 02 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Eagles 4–2
40% 44%
1.33
Nov 08 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Boston Jr Eagles 1–4
13% 78%
0.37
Nov 08 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ MassConn United Hockey Club 3–8
32% 51%
0.98
Nov 08 BOSTON VIPERS 2016 @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Platinum 7–3
82% 11%
0.29
Nov 08 South Shore Kings @ NorthStars Hockey Club 5–3
49% 32%
1.02
Nov 09 Bay State Breakers 2016 Platinum @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 2–8
33% 52%
0.95
Nov 09 MassConn United Hockey Club @ South Shore Kings 4–4
23% 63%
2.78 UPSET
Nov 15 MassConn United Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Eagles 7–4
28% 59%
1.86
Nov 15 Boston Jr Terriers (White) @ NorthStars Hockey Club 4–3
64% 22%
0.64
Nov 15 South Shore Kings @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Platinum 4–3
80% 11%
0.32
Nov 15 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 5–1
30% 54%
1.74
Nov 15 BOSTON VIPERS 2016 @ Bulldogs Hockey Club 5–5
35% 51%
2.84
Nov 16 Boston Jr Eagles @ BOSTON VIPERS 2016 6–2
29% 58%
1.79
Nov 16 MassConn United Hockey Club @ NorthStars Hockey Club 1–4
40% 44%
1.19
Nov 16 Bay State Breakers 2016 Platinum @ Bulldogs Hockey Club 2–7
5% 90%
0.16
Nov 16 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 4–6
68% 18%
2.49
Nov 22 NorthStars Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Terriers (White) 2–4
20% 66%
0.60
Nov 22 South Shore Kings @ MassConn United Hockey Club 4–1
50% 34%
1.00
Nov 22 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Bulldogs Hockey Club 3–5
11% 80%
0.33
Nov 22 Boston Jr Eagles @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Platinum 7–3
81% 11%
0.30
Nov 23 Boston Jr Terriers (White) @ MassConn United Hockey Club 5–3
69% 19%
0.53
Nov 23 South Shore Kings @ BOSTON VIPERS 2016 6–0
38% 47%
1.40
Nov 23 Boston Jr Terriers (White) @ MassConn United Hockey Club 7–4
69% 19%
0.54
Nov 23 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ NorthStars Hockey Club 5–3
24% 61%
2.07
Nov 29 Bay State Breakers 2016 Platinum @ Boston Jr Terriers (White) 3–6
4% 93%
0.11
Nov 29 Bulldogs Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 4–3
73% 16%
0.46
Nov 29 BOSTON VIPERS 2016 @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 2–1
65% 22%
0.63
Nov 30 Boston Jr Terriers (White) @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 4–1
76% 14%
0.40
Nov 30 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Bulldogs Hockey Club 4–5
14% 77%
0.39
Nov 30 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ NorthStars Hockey Club 1–3
25% 58%
0.77
Dec 06 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Boston Jr Terriers (White) 1–4
11% 80%
0.32
Dec 06 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ South Shore Kings 5–4
15% 72%
2.78 UPSET
Dec 06 BOSTON VIPERS 2016 @ MassConn United Hockey Club 4–3
53% 33%
0.92
Dec 06 Bulldogs Hockey Club @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Platinum 8–2
86% 8%
0.22
Dec 06 NorthStars Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Eagles 4–3
29% 56%
1.79
Dec 07 MassConn United Hockey Club @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Platinum 8–2
68% 20%
0.55
Dec 07 BOSTON VIPERS 2016 @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 3–1
61% 26%
0.71
Dec 07 NorthStars Hockey Club @ South Shore Kings 1–4
28% 55%
0.87
Dec 07 Boston Jr Eagles @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 4–2
65% 22%
0.61
Dec 13 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Platinum 6–5
60% 26%
0.73
Dec 13 NorthStars Hockey Club @ MassConn United Hockey Club 3–3
41% 43%
2.63
Dec 13 Boston Jr Eagles @ Bulldogs Hockey Club 4–4
31% 55%
2.89 UPSET
Dec 13 South Shore Kings @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 0–4
66% 19%
2.39
Dec 14 Bay State Breakers 2016 Platinum @ BOSTON VIPERS 2016 4–4
8% 86%
3.94 UPSET
Dec 14 MassConn United Hockey Club @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 3–5
50% 34%
1.54
Dec 14 Bulldogs Hockey Club @ NorthStars Hockey Club 3–3
58% 28%
2.75 UPSET
Dec 14 Boston Jr Eagles @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 4–2
65% 22%
0.62
Dec 14 MassConn United Hockey Club @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 0–1
47% 37%
1.43
Dec 20 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Terriers (White) 4–3
26% 59%
1.94
Dec 20 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ BOSTON VIPERS 2016 2–4
24% 62%
0.70
Dec 20 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ NorthStars Hockey Club 6–4
27% 57%
1.87
Dec 20 Boston Jr Eagles @ MassConn United Hockey Club 3–5
57% 29%
1.78
Dec 20 NorthStars Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 2–3
49% 35%
1.52
Dec 21 Boston Jr Terriers (White) @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Platinum 8–1
90% 5%
0.15
Dec 21 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 6–2
61% 24%
0.71
Dec 21 Bulldogs Hockey Club @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 5–2
67% 20%
0.57
Dec 21 MassConn United Hockey Club @ NorthStars Hockey Club 2–3
39% 45%
1.14
Dec 21 BOSTON VIPERS 2016 @ Boston Jr Eagles 3–3
37% 49%
2.81
Dec 27 BOSTON VIPERS 2016 @ Boston Jr Terriers (White) 2–6
23% 64%
0.64
Dec 27 Boston Jr Eagles @ South Shore Kings 6–2
36% 49%
1.49
Dec 27 Boston Jr Eagles @ South Shore Kings 2–2
40% 44%
2.69
Dec 28 BOSTON VIPERS 2016 @ Bulldogs Hockey Club 1–6
28% 59%
0.77
Jan 03 Bay State Breakers 2016 Platinum @ South Shore Kings 3–1
8% 84%
3.59 UPSET
Jan 03 BOSTON VIPERS 2016 @ NorthStars Hockey Club 5–3
45% 39%
1.16
Jan 03 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ MassConn United Hockey Club 2–6
32% 53%
0.92
Jan 03 Bulldogs Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Eagles 5–6
49% 37%
1.44
Jan 04 NorthStars Hockey Club @ BOSTON VIPERS 2016 1–6
33% 52%
0.95
Jan 04 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Eagles 0–4
36% 49%
1.04
Jan 04 Boston Jr Terriers (White) @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 4–2
77% 13%
0.39
Jan 04 MassConn United Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 4–7
50% 35%
1.51
Jan 04 BOSTON VIPERS 2016 @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Platinum 4–4
78% 13%
3.48 UPSET
Jan 10 South Shore Kings @ BOSTON VIPERS 2016 2–5
40% 43%
1.21
Jan 10 Bay State Breakers 2016 Platinum @ Boston Jr Eagles 0–7
7% 87%
0.21
Jan 10 NorthStars Hockey Club @ Bulldogs Hockey Club 2–6
19% 69%
0.54
Jan 11 MassConn United Hockey Club @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Platinum 1–0
69% 20%
0.54
Jan 11 Bulldogs Hockey Club @ South Shore Kings 3–4
54% 30%
1.71
Jan 11 BOSTON VIPERS 2016 @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 5–1
58% 28%
0.79
Jan 11 Boston Jr Terriers (White) @ Boston Jr Eagles 3–4
52% 33%
1.59
Jan 17 Bay State Breakers 2016 Platinum @ NorthStars Hockey Club 1–4
18% 70%
0.51
Jan 17 BOSTON VIPERS 2016 @ Boston Jr Terriers (White) 6–4
23% 64%
2.13
Jan 18 Bay State Breakers 2016 Platinum @ BOSTON VIPERS 2016 3–5
8% 85%
0.23
Jan 18 Boston Jr Terriers (White) @ NorthStars Hockey Club 2–3
68% 19%
2.38
Jan 24 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Boston Jr Terriers (White) 1–3
12% 78%
0.36
Jan 24 BOSTON VIPERS 2016 @ NorthStars Hockey Club 1–2
52% 32%
1.63
Jan 24 Boston Jr Eagles @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Platinum 3–1
86% 8%
0.23
Jan 24 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ MassConn United Hockey Club 6–4
32% 53%
1.62
Jan 24 South Shore Kings @ Bulldogs Hockey Club 0–3
27% 58%
0.77
Jan 25 Boston Jr Eagles @ BOSTON VIPERS 2016 6–7
47% 38%
1.40
Jan 25 Bulldogs Hockey Club @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Platinum 6–0
88% 6%
0.18
Jan 31 NorthStars Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Terriers (White) 1–7
18% 70%
0.52
Jan 31 BOSTON VIPERS 2016 @ MassConn United Hockey Club 5–1
56% 31%
0.85
Jan 31 Bay State Breakers 2016 Platinum @ Boston Jr Eagles 3–4
6% 88%
0.18
Jan 31 Bulldogs Hockey Club @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 4–2
73% 16%
0.45
Jan 31 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ South Shore Kings 4–7
26% 59%
0.75
Feb 01 South Shore Kings @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 4–2
56% 27%
0.83
Feb 01 Boston Jr Terriers (White) @ BOSTON VIPERS 2016 2–4
56% 30%
1.72
Feb 01 MassConn United Hockey Club @ Bulldogs Hockey Club 2–5
15% 75%
0.42
Feb 01 Bay State Breakers 2016 Platinum @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 6–2
20% 68%
2.31
Feb 07 Bay State Breakers 2016 Platinum @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 4–3
24% 63%
2.05
Feb 07 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Terriers (White) 1–3
24% 62%
0.70
Feb 07 Bulldogs Hockey Club @ BOSTON VIPERS 2016 4–5
52% 34%
1.55
Feb 07 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 3–2
39% 44%
1.34
Feb 07 Boston Jr Eagles @ MassConn United Hockey Club 2–0
62% 25%
0.69
Feb 08 NorthStars Hockey Club @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 2–4
47% 35%
1.50
Feb 08 MassConn United Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Terriers (White) 5–6
14% 76%
0.39
Feb 08 BOSTON VIPERS 2016 @ South Shore Kings 4–4
45% 39%
2.64
Feb 08 Boston Jr Eagles @ Bulldogs Hockey Club 2–5
33% 53%
0.91
Feb 08 MassConn United Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Terriers (White) 2–5
14% 76%
0.40
Feb 12 NorthStars Hockey Club @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 2–2
46% 37%
2.51
Feb 14 Boston Jr Eagles @ Boston Jr Terriers (White) 7–1
30% 56%
1.75
Feb 14 Bulldogs Hockey Club @ MassConn United Hockey Club 8–3
71% 18%
0.50
Feb 14 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Platinum 4–6
56% 30%
1.73
Feb 15 Boston Jr Terriers (White) @ Bulldogs Hockey Club 7–7
38% 48%
2.78
Feb 15 South Shore Kings @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Platinum 7–3
71% 17%
0.49
Feb 21 Boston Jr Terriers (White) @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 4–4
76% 14%
3.34 UPSET
Feb 21 Bulldogs Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Terriers (White) 2–2
43% 43%
2.80
Feb 21 NorthStars Hockey Club @ South Shore Kings 2–6
28% 56%
0.84
Feb 21 MassConn United Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 4–5
46% 40%
1.34
Feb 21 BOSTON VIPERS 2016 @ Boston Jr Eagles 2–2
35% 50%
2.78
Feb 21 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Platinum 2–5
53% 31%
1.67
Feb 22 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Bulldogs Hockey Club 3–8
10% 82%
0.29
Feb 22 MassConn United Hockey Club @ BOSTON VIPERS 2016 5–3
21% 67%
2.25
Feb 22 Bay State Breakers 2016 Platinum @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 5–6
29% 56%
0.85
Feb 22 Boston Jr Terriers (White) @ South Shore Kings 2–2
51% 33%
2.68 UPSET
Feb 22 Boston Jr Eagles @ NorthStars Hockey Club 3–2
62% 24%
0.69