The Sheet

What is Surprisal? Surprisal measures how surprising a result was, based on pre-game probabilities. 0 bits = perfectly predicted. 3+ bits = major upset. A result is flagged as an UPSET when surprisal exceeds 2.5 bits.

Standings

# Team GP W L T GF GA PTS Champ %
1 Spartans - Staubitz 33 31 2 0 264 74 62 89%
2 Minuteman Sparks - Griffin 34 23 7 4 189 110 50 4%
3 Little Stars - Laverty 34 18 12 4 181 163 40 3%
4 Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko 34 15 18 1 201 174 31 4%
5 Bay State Waves 2017 UG 32 10 15 7 126 154 27 0%
6 Shamrocks - Cooke 33 9 21 3 101 191 21 0%
7 Providence (South) - Ciresi 27 7 19 1 114 198 15 0%
8 Manchester Inferno - Michaud 33 7 26 0 132 244 14 0%

Projected Finish

How the rest of the season could play out — remaining games are simulated with home ice and rating uncertainty, then finishing positions are tallied. Ranges show the likely spread, not a single guaranteed rank. An analytical model for discussion, not advice.

# Team Proj. Finish Win Division Proj. Points
1 Spartans - Staubitz 1 100% 64 (64–64)
2 Minuteman Sparks - Griffin 2 <1% 52 (52–52)
3 Little Stars - Laverty 3 <1% 40 (40–40)
4 Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko 4 <1% 33 (31–33)
5 Bay State Waves 2017 UG 5 <1% 29 (27–29)
6 Shamrocks - Cooke 6 <1% 21 (21–23)
7 Providence (South) - Ciresi 7 <1% 15 (15–17)
8 Manchester Inferno - Michaud 8 <1% 14 (14–15)

Game Log

Oldest first
Date Matchup Score Pre-game Probability Surprisal Flag
Aug 01 Shamrocks - Cooke @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko Upcoming 50/50 —
Aug 01 Minuteman Sparks - Griffin @ Manchester Inferno - Michaud Upcoming 50/50 —
Aug 01 Spartans - Staubitz @ Manchester Inferno - Michaud Upcoming 50/50 —
Aug 01 Providence (South) - Ciresi @ Bay State Waves 2017 UG Upcoming 50/50 —
Sep 06 Minuteman Sparks - Griffin @ Spartans - Staubitz 3–10 50/50 —
Sep 06 Little Stars - Laverty @ Shamrocks - Cooke 9–3 50/50 —
Sep 06 Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko @ Manchester Inferno - Michaud 8–5 50/50 —
Sep 07 Shamrocks - Cooke @ Manchester Inferno - Michaud 6–3 50/50 —
Sep 07 Little Stars - Laverty @ Minuteman Sparks - Griffin 6–7 50/50 —
Sep 07 Spartans - Staubitz @ Bay State Waves 2017 UG 11–1 50/50 —
Sep 13 Minuteman Sparks - Griffin @ Shamrocks - Cooke 6–3 50/50 —
Sep 13 Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko @ Spartans - Staubitz 2–8 50/50 —
Sep 13 Manchester Inferno - Michaud @ Bay State Waves 2017 UG 2–7 50/50 —
Sep 14 Minuteman Sparks - Griffin @ Spartans - Staubitz 3–2
6% 77%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
4.11 UPSET
Sep 14 Little Stars - Laverty @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko 4–2 50/50 —
Sep 20 Manchester Inferno - Michaud @ Spartans - Staubitz 1–10
1% 99%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
0.02
Sep 20 Shamrocks - Cooke @ Little Stars - Laverty 2–2
12% 81%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
3.74 UPSET
Sep 20 Minuteman Sparks - Griffin @ Bay State Waves 2017 UG 3–3 50/50 —
Sep 21 Bay State Waves 2017 UG @ Little Stars - Laverty 2–10
20% 70%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
0.53
Sep 21 Shamrocks - Cooke @ Spartans - Staubitz 1–11
4% 92%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
0.13
Sep 21 Manchester Inferno - Michaud @ Minuteman Sparks - Griffin 1–8
6% 90%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
0.15
Sep 27 Shamrocks - Cooke @ Bay State Waves 2017 UG 4–3
41% 45%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
1.28
Sep 28 Minuteman Sparks - Griffin @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko 6–1
61% 27%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
0.72
Sep 28 Bay State Waves 2017 UG @ Manchester Inferno - Michaud 4–3
63% 25%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
0.67
Oct 04 Little Stars - Laverty @ Spartans - Staubitz 9–4
12% 80%
3.07 UPSET
Oct 04 Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko @ Bay State Waves 2017 UG 5–5
50% 36%
2.80
Oct 05 Spartans - Staubitz @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko 10–6
90% 5%
0.15
Oct 11 Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko @ Manchester Inferno - Michaud 4–7
74% 16%
2.64 UPSET
Oct 12 Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko @ Minuteman Sparks - Griffin 9–14
12% 80%
0.32
Oct 18 Spartans - Staubitz @ Shamrocks - Cooke 11–2
89% 6%
0.17
Oct 18 Bay State Waves 2017 UG @ Minuteman Sparks - Griffin 3–3
10% 83%
3.81 UPSET
Oct 18 Little Stars - Laverty @ Manchester Inferno - Michaud 9–1
94% 3%
0.09
Oct 19 Little Stars - Laverty @ Bay State Waves 2017 UG 3–3
86% 8%
3.93 UPSET
Oct 19 Shamrocks - Cooke @ Minuteman Sparks - Griffin 0–9
11% 81%
0.30
Oct 25 Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko @ Shamrocks - Cooke 1–2
54% 33%
1.59
Oct 25 Spartans - Staubitz @ Manchester Inferno - Michaud 9–2
98% 1%
0.03
Oct 26 Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko @ Little Stars - Laverty 8–6
6% 90%
4.17 UPSET
Nov 01 Shamrocks - Cooke @ Little Stars - Laverty 3–8
6% 88%
0.18
Nov 01 Manchester Inferno - Michaud @ Bay State Waves 2017 UG 2–9
19% 69%
0.53
Nov 02 Shamrocks - Cooke @ Spartans - Staubitz 2–12
2% 96%
0.05
Nov 02 Bay State Waves 2017 UG @ Little Stars - Laverty 4–3
14% 78%
2.89 UPSET
Nov 08 Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko @ Minuteman Sparks - Griffin 3–4
11% 82%
0.28
Nov 08 Spartans - Staubitz @ Little Stars - Laverty 6–2
67% 23%
0.58
Nov 09 Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko @ Little Stars - Laverty 4–9
14% 78%
0.35
Nov 09 Spartans - Staubitz @ Minuteman Sparks - Griffin 7–0
68% 22%
0.56
Nov 15 Bay State Waves 2017 UG @ Shamrocks - Cooke 7–2
62% 24%
0.68
Nov 15 Manchester Inferno - Michaud @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko 1–11
14% 78%
0.36
Nov 16 Providence (South) - Ciresi @ Little Stars - Laverty 5–9 50/50 —
Nov 16 Manchester Inferno - Michaud @ Shamrocks - Cooke 1–6
27% 60%
0.75
Nov 16 Bay State Waves 2017 UG @ Spartans - Staubitz 2–8
4% 92%
0.13
Nov 22 Spartans - Staubitz @ Shamrocks - Cooke 8–1
97% 1%
0.04
Nov 23 Shamrocks - Cooke @ Providence (South) - Ciresi 10–4 50/50 —
Nov 23 Spartans - Staubitz @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko 7–2
94% 3%
0.09
Nov 23 Manchester Inferno - Michaud @ Little Stars - Laverty 4–7
2% 97%
0.05
Nov 29 Shamrocks - Cooke @ Little Stars - Laverty 4–6
8% 86%
0.22
Nov 29 Minuteman Sparks - Griffin @ Manchester Inferno - Michaud 12–4
93% 3%
0.10
Nov 30 Minuteman Sparks - Griffin @ Bay State Waves 2017 UG 6–5
66% 22%
0.60
Nov 30 Shamrocks - Cooke @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko 3–4
24% 65%
0.63
Nov 30 Manchester Inferno - Michaud @ Providence (South) - Ciresi 8–5 50/50 —
Nov 30 Manchester Inferno - Michaud @ Providence (South) - Ciresi 12–5
37% 52%
1.43
Dec 06 Manchester Inferno - Michaud @ Shamrocks - Cooke 5–4
26% 61%
1.92
Dec 06 Little Stars - Laverty @ Minuteman Sparks - Griffin 1–10
36% 52%
0.95
Dec 07 Minuteman Sparks - Griffin @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko 1–4
76% 16%
2.67 UPSET
Dec 07 Bay State Waves 2017 UG @ Spartans - Staubitz 2–8
4% 93%
0.11
Dec 07 Manchester Inferno - Michaud @ Little Stars - Laverty 10–5
5% 91%
4.41 UPSET
Dec 07 Shamrocks - Cooke @ Providence (South) - Ciresi 5–3
68% 22%
0.55
Dec 13 Providence (South) - Ciresi @ Minuteman Sparks - Griffin 1–10
1% 99%
0.02
Dec 13 Manchester Inferno - Michaud @ Spartans - Staubitz 2–12
0% 99%
0.01
Dec 14 Spartans - Staubitz @ Minuteman Sparks - Griffin 5–2
73% 17%
0.45
Dec 14 Bay State Waves 2017 UG @ Providence (South) - Ciresi 3–6
88% 7%
3.85 UPSET
Dec 20 Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko @ Spartans - Staubitz 2–6
2% 95%
0.08
Dec 20 Little Stars - Laverty @ Shamrocks - Cooke 7–3
74% 16%
0.43
Dec 20 Manchester Inferno - Michaud @ Minuteman Sparks - Griffin 3–6
3% 94%
0.10
Dec 20 Providence (South) - Ciresi @ Bay State Waves 2017 UG 6–3
10% 83%
3.31 UPSET
Dec 21 Shamrocks - Cooke @ Minuteman Sparks - Griffin 1–3
6% 88%
0.19
Dec 21 Bay State Waves 2017 UG @ Little Stars - Laverty 5–7
22% 67%
0.57
Dec 21 Manchester Inferno - Michaud @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko 9–10
15% 77%
0.38
Dec 21 Spartans - Staubitz @ Providence (South) - Ciresi 11–1
100% 0%
0.01
Dec 27 Manchester Inferno - Michaud @ Little Stars - Laverty 7–8
9% 86%
0.22
Dec 27 Bay State Waves 2017 UG @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko 3–2
32% 55%
1.65
Jan 03 Little Stars - Laverty @ Minuteman Sparks - Griffin 3–1
24% 65%
2.06
Jan 03 Shamrocks - Cooke @ Manchester Inferno - Michaud 1–5
42% 45%
1.14
Jan 03 Spartans - Staubitz @ Bay State Waves 2017 UG 9–3
93% 3%
0.10
Jan 03 Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko @ Providence (South) - Ciresi 11–4
79% 14%
0.34
Jan 03 Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko @ Providence (South) - Ciresi 8–2
83% 11%
0.27
Jan 04 Spartans - Staubitz @ Providence (South) - Ciresi 5–3
100% 0%
0.00
Jan 04 Bay State Waves 2017 UG @ Minuteman Sparks - Griffin 3–4
14% 76%
0.39
Jan 04 Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko @ Shamrocks - Cooke 8–0
67% 22%
0.58
Jan 10 Little Stars - Laverty @ Providence (South) - Ciresi 6–2
88% 7%
0.18
Jan 10 Minuteman Sparks - Griffin @ Shamrocks - Cooke 8–1
85% 8%
0.24
Jan 10 Bay State Waves 2017 UG @ Manchester Inferno - Michaud 8–3
57% 31%
0.81
Jan 10 Providence (South) - Ciresi @ Little Stars - Laverty 4–4
5% 91%
4.67 UPSET
Jan 11 Providence (South) - Ciresi @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko 1–8
9% 85%
0.23
Jan 11 Manchester Inferno - Michaud @ Minuteman Sparks - Griffin 0–9
5% 91%
0.13
Jan 11 Shamrocks - Cooke @ Bay State Waves 2017 UG 4–2
20% 68%
2.34
Jan 11 Spartans - Staubitz @ Little Stars - Laverty 7–3
87% 7%
0.20
Jan 17 Minuteman Sparks - Griffin @ Providence (South) - Ciresi 10–2
93% 3%
0.10
Jan 17 Providence (South) - Ciresi @ Minuteman Sparks - Griffin 8–5
2% 96%
5.71 UPSET
Jan 17 Bay State Waves 2017 UG @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko 4–7
28% 60%
0.75
Jan 18 Providence (South) - Ciresi @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko 9–8
9% 85%
3.52 UPSET
Jan 18 Minuteman Sparks - Griffin @ Bay State Waves 2017 UG 2–2
72% 17%
3.21 UPSET
Jan 24 Providence (South) - Ciresi @ Manchester Inferno - Michaud 9–4
37% 52%
1.44
Jan 24 Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko @ Minuteman Sparks - Griffin 2–5
21% 69%
0.54
Jan 24 Providence (South) - Ciresi @ Manchester Inferno - Michaud 8–6
42% 46%
1.24
Jan 24 Little Stars - Laverty @ Spartans - Staubitz 1–7
6% 90%
0.16
Jan 25 Little Stars - Laverty @ Bay State Waves 2017 UG 6–6
58% 29%
2.97 UPSET
Jan 31 Minuteman Sparks - Griffin @ Providence (South) - Ciresi 6–1
88% 7%
0.18
Jan 31 Little Stars - Laverty @ Manchester Inferno - Michaud 5–3
81% 12%
0.30
Jan 31 Shamrocks - Cooke @ Bay State Waves 2017 UG 3–4
22% 66%
0.60
Jan 31 Spartans - Staubitz @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko 5–4
91% 5%
0.14
Feb 01 Providence (South) - Ciresi @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko 5–12
12% 81%
0.31
Feb 01 Minuteman Sparks - Griffin @ Little Stars - Laverty 5–3
59% 29%
0.77
Feb 01 Shamrocks - Cooke @ Spartans - Staubitz 2–9
1% 98%
0.03
Feb 01 Bay State Waves 2017 UG @ Manchester Inferno - Michaud 5–2
63% 26%
0.67
Feb 07 Providence (South) - Ciresi @ Shamrocks - Cooke 10–1
42% 44%
1.24
Feb 07 Spartans - Staubitz @ Manchester Inferno - Michaud 9–1
99% 0%
0.02
Feb 07 Providence (South) - Ciresi @ Shamrocks - Cooke 2–7
50% 37%
1.45
Feb 07 Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko @ Bay State Waves 2017 UG 8–7
54% 33%
0.89
Feb 08 Bay State Waves 2017 UG @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko 5–3
28% 61%
1.86
Feb 08 Providence (South) - Ciresi @ Little Stars - Laverty 4–8
11% 83%
0.27
Feb 08 Minuteman Sparks - Griffin @ Spartans - Staubitz 3–6
14% 76%
0.40
Feb 08 Manchester Inferno - Michaud @ Shamrocks - Cooke 10–3
41% 45%
1.27
Feb 14 Minuteman Sparks - Griffin @ Shamrocks - Cooke 3–3
88% 6%
4.02 UPSET
Feb 14 Little Stars - Laverty @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko 1–11
44% 43%
1.21
Feb 15 Providence (South) - Ciresi @ Spartans - Staubitz 4–12
0% 99%
0.01
Feb 15 Little Stars - Laverty @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko 7–6
38% 50%
1.41
Feb 15 Providence (South) - Ciresi @ Spartans - Staubitz 0–6
0% 99%
0.01
Feb 15 Minuteman Sparks - Griffin @ Manchester Inferno - Michaud 9–2
88% 6%
0.18
Feb 21 Little Stars - Laverty @ Spartans - Staubitz 2–7
4% 91%
0.13
Feb 21 Bay State Waves 2017 UG @ Shamrocks - Cooke 3–3
64% 23%
2.96 UPSET
Feb 21 Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko @ Manchester Inferno - Michaud 13–3
80% 13%
0.33
Feb 22 Minuteman Sparks - Griffin @ Little Stars - Laverty 3–2
62% 26%
0.70
Feb 22 Shamrocks - Cooke @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko 6–4
9% 84%
3.46 UPSET
Feb 22 Spartans - Staubitz @ Bay State Waves 2017 UG 6–0
92% 4%
0.12