The Sheet

What is Surprisal? Surprisal measures how surprising a result was, based on pre-game probabilities. 0 bits = perfectly predicted. 3+ bits = major upset. A result is flagged as an UPSET when surprisal exceeds 2.5 bits.

Standings

# Team GP W L T GF GA PTS Champ %
1 Boston Jr Dogs (White) 35 26 5 4 136 54 56 7%
2 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 35 25 6 4 143 53 54 82%
3 Team Merrimack East 35 22 8 5 99 67 49 8%
4 Team Boston 35 13 17 5 63 90 31 2%
5 Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum 35 10 16 9 49 59 29 0%
6 MC Selects 34 11 19 4 57 117 26 0%
7 Providence (South) - Joannette 35 6 23 6 69 127 18 0%
8 South Shore Knights 34 5 24 5 56 105 15 0%

Projected Finish

How the rest of the season could play out — remaining games are simulated with home ice and rating uncertainty, then finishing positions are tallied. Ranges show the likely spread, not a single guaranteed rank. An analytical model for discussion, not advice.

# Team Proj. Finish Win Division Proj. Points
1 Boston Jr Dogs (White) 1 100% 56 (56–56)
2 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 2 <1% 54 (54–54)
3 Team Merrimack East 3 <1% 49 (49–49)
4 Team Boston 4 <1% 31 (31–31)
5 Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum 5 <1% 29 (29–29)
6 MC Selects 6 <1% 27 (26–28)
7 Providence (South) - Joannette 7 <1% 18 (18–18)
8 South Shore Knights 8 <1% 16 (15–17)

Game Log

Oldest first
Date Matchup Score Pre-game Probability Surprisal Flag
Aug 01 MC Selects @ South Shore Knights Upcoming — —
Sep 06 South Shore Knights @ Providence (South) - Joannette 2–4 50/50 —
Sep 06 Team Merrimack East @ MC Selects 1–3 50/50 —
Sep 06 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 3–1 50/50 —
Sep 06 Team Boston @ Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum 1–3 50/50 —
Sep 07 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ MC Selects 10–1 50/50 —
Sep 07 Providence (South) - Joannette @ Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum 2–5 50/50 —
Sep 07 South Shore Knights @ Team Boston 2–4 50/50 —
Sep 13 Team Boston @ MC Selects 2–5 50/50 —
Sep 13 South Shore Knights @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 2–5 50/50 —
Sep 13 Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 0–4 50/50 —
Sep 13 Team Merrimack East @ Providence (South) - Joannette 6–0 50/50 —
Sep 14 Providence (South) - Joannette @ MC Selects 5–1
25% 59%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
1.99
Sep 14 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum 2–2 50/50 —
Sep 14 Team Merrimack East @ South Shore Knights 3–2 50/50 —
Sep 14 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Team Boston 9–2
89% 5%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
0.17
Sep 20 Providence (South) - Joannette @ Team Boston 1–3
49% 36%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
1.48
Sep 20 MC Selects @ South Shore Knights 1–7
42% 38%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
1.40
Sep 20 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 4–3
76% 13%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
0.40
Sep 21 Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum @ MC Selects 1–3
67% 17%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
2.53 UPSET
Sep 21 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Providence (South) - Joannette 8–1
92% 4%
0.13
Sep 27 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Team Boston 1–3
94% 3%
5.19 UPSET
Sep 27 MC Selects @ Providence (South) - Joannette 5–3
38% 44%
1.38
Sep 27 Team Merrimack East @ Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum 0–1
45% 33%
1.58
Sep 27 South Shore Knights @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 1–7
21% 63%
0.66
Sep 28 Team Boston @ Team Merrimack East 0–2
28% 52%
0.95
Oct 04 Team Boston @ Providence (South) - Joannette 4–4
52% 31%
2.56 UPSET
Oct 04 Team Merrimack East @ MC Selects 5–3
60% 21%
0.72
Oct 04 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 3–4
62% 23%
2.13
Oct 05 Team Merrimack East @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 2–5
25% 56%
0.84
Oct 05 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Providence (South) - Joannette 4–3
94% 3%
0.09
Oct 11 Team Merrimack East @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 3–3
14% 73%
2.92 UPSET
Oct 11 Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 2–3
20% 62%
0.69
Oct 12 Providence (South) - Joannette @ Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum 3–2
20% 63%
2.29
Oct 12 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Team Merrimack East 4–1
64% 20%
0.64
Oct 18 Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum @ MC Selects 1–0
54% 27%
0.88
Oct 18 Providence (South) - Joannette @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 2–4
4% 92%
0.13
Oct 18 Team Boston @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 2–3
12% 78%
0.36
Oct 25 Team Boston @ Providence (South) - Joannette 6–2
44% 39%
1.18
Oct 25 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ MC Selects 9–1
80% 10%
0.32
Oct 25 Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 1–4
13% 72%
0.48
Oct 25 Team Merrimack East @ South Shore Knights 5–1
55% 26%
0.86
Oct 26 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ Providence (South) - Joannette 1–2
85% 8%
3.71 UPSET
Oct 26 MC Selects @ Team Merrimack East 0–3
13% 74%
0.42
Oct 26 Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum @ South Shore Knights 2–0
51% 28%
0.96
Oct 26 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Team Boston 7–2
79% 11%
0.33
Nov 01 Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum @ Team Boston 0–1
42% 36%
1.49
Nov 01 Providence (South) - Joannette @ South Shore Knights 7–1
46% 37%
1.13
Nov 01 MC Selects @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 2–4
2% 95%
0.07
Nov 01 Team Merrimack East @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 1–2
27% 56%
0.84
Nov 02 MC Selects @ Team Boston 2–1
22% 63%
2.19
Nov 02 Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum @ Team Merrimack East 2–2
28% 49%
2.08
Nov 02 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ South Shore Knights 2–0
93% 3%
0.11
Nov 08 South Shore Knights @ Team Boston 1–4
23% 60%
0.73
Nov 08 Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 0–2
13% 73%
0.45
Nov 09 Providence (South) - Joannette @ Team Merrimack East 4–4
22% 63%
2.73 UPSET
Nov 09 MC Selects @ South Shore Knights 1–1
44% 38%
2.44
Nov 09 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum 1–0
59% 22%
0.76
Nov 15 MC Selects @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 1–5
3% 93%
0.11
Nov 15 Team Boston @ Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum 1–0
34% 44%
1.56
Nov 15 Providence (South) - Joannette @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 3–7
11% 79%
0.34
Nov 16 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ MC Selects 10–1
84% 8%
0.25
Nov 16 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ South Shore Knights 4–2
91% 4%
0.14
Nov 16 Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum @ Providence (South) - Joannette 2–3
43% 37%
1.42
Nov 22 Providence (South) - Joannette @ MC Selects 0–3
61% 25%
1.99
Nov 22 Team Boston @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 1–4
12% 78%
0.36
Nov 22 Team Merrimack East @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 1–4
16% 70%
0.52
Nov 22 South Shore Knights @ Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum 2–2
22% 57%
2.24
Nov 23 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ South Shore Knights 3–1
87% 6%
0.20
Nov 29 Team Merrimack East @ Team Boston 4–1
51% 31%
0.98
Nov 29 Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 1–2
14% 70%
0.51
Nov 30 Providence (South) - Joannette @ Team Merrimack East 3–4
21% 66%
0.61
Nov 30 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ Team Boston 7–0
75% 13%
0.41
Dec 06 South Shore Knights @ MC Selects 1–3
38% 43%
1.21
Dec 06 Team Boston @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 1–4
6% 86%
0.21
Dec 06 Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum @ Team Merrimack East 1–1
27% 51%
2.20
Dec 07 Providence (South) - Joannette @ South Shore Knights 2–4
56% 28%
1.82
Dec 07 MC Selects @ Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum 1–1
24% 56%
2.27
Dec 13 Team Boston @ MC Selects 0–2
50% 32%
1.63
Dec 13 South Shore Knights @ Team Merrimack East 1–2
14% 71%
0.50
Dec 14 MC Selects @ Team Merrimack East 2–3
16% 70%
0.51
Dec 14 MC Selects @ Team Merrimack East 1–3
16% 69%
0.53
Dec 14 Providence (South) - Joannette @ Team Boston 0–1
41% 43%
1.22
Dec 20 Team Merrimack East @ Providence (South) - Joannette 5–2
61% 24%
0.71
Dec 20 Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum @ MC Selects 1–1
50% 29%
2.21
Dec 20 South Shore Knights @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 0–5
4% 91%
0.13
Dec 20 Team Boston @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 2–2
7% 84%
3.58 UPSET
Dec 21 Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum @ Providence (South) - Joannette 3–0
45% 35%
1.16
Dec 21 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Team Merrimack East 1–2
67% 19%
2.43
Dec 21 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ South Shore Knights 7–3
87% 6%
0.20
Dec 21 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Team Merrimack East 4–2
64% 21%
0.65
Dec 27 Providence (South) - Joannette @ Team Boston 0–1
36% 47%
1.08
Dec 28 Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum @ Team Boston 0–3
43% 34%
1.58
Dec 28 MC Selects @ Providence (South) - Joannette 3–1
34% 50%
1.57
Jan 03 Team Merrimack East @ Providence (South) - Joannette 3–2
67% 19%
0.58
Jan 03 Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum @ South Shore Knights 2–1
50% 27%
0.98
Jan 03 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 1–2
32% 52%
0.94
Jan 04 South Shore Knights @ Providence (South) - Joannette 1–1
31% 52%
2.60 UPSET
Jan 04 MC Selects @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 0–6
5% 89%
0.17
Jan 04 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum 1–1
72% 13%
2.72 UPSET
Jan 04 Team Boston @ Team Merrimack East 2–4
22% 60%
0.74
Jan 10 Team Merrimack East @ Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum 1–2
47% 29%
1.77
Jan 10 South Shore Knights @ MC Selects 2–3
35% 46%
1.13
Jan 10 Providence (South) - Joannette @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 0–5
4% 91%
0.14
Jan 10 Team Boston @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 3–0
7% 84%
3.85 UPSET
Jan 11 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Providence (South) - Joannette 2–2
89% 5%
4.02 UPSET
Jan 11 MC Selects @ Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum 1–2
24% 54%
0.89
Jan 11 Team Boston @ South Shore Knights 1–1
54% 27%
2.41
Jan 11 Team Boston @ South Shore Knights 2–5
53% 27%
1.88
Jan 11 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ Team Merrimack East 3–4
63% 21%
2.23
Jan 18 South Shore Knights @ Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum 2–1
23% 54%
2.11
Jan 18 South Shore Knights @ Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum 1–4
24% 52%
0.93
Jan 24 Team Boston @ Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum 1–0
31% 44%
1.68
Jan 24 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ MC Selects 4–0
87% 6%
0.20
Jan 24 South Shore Knights @ Team Merrimack East 2–3
14% 73%
0.46
Jan 24 Providence (South) - Joannette @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 1–5
5% 89%
0.16
Jan 25 Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum @ Team Merrimack East 1–3
27% 50%
0.99
Jan 25 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ Providence (South) - Joannette 7–0
87% 6%
0.20
Jan 31 Providence (South) - Joannette @ MC Selects 2–2
42% 41%
2.51
Jan 31 Team Merrimack East @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 2–1
18% 68%
2.47
Jan 31 South Shore Knights @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 0–3
4% 90%
0.16
Feb 01 Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum @ Providence (South) - Joannette 2–2
49% 30%
2.25
Feb 01 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ South Shore Knights 1–0
88% 6%
0.19
Feb 01 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ MC Selects 8–1
87% 6%
0.20
Feb 01 Team Merrimack East @ Team Boston 3–0
58% 25%
0.79
Feb 07 Team Merrimack East @ South Shore Knights 3–0
70% 16%
0.52
Feb 07 Team Boston @ MC Selects 2–0
50% 31%
0.99
Feb 07 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 3–2
37% 46%
1.43
Feb 08 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum 1–1
69% 15%
2.64 UPSET
Feb 08 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ Team Merrimack East 3–3
59% 24%
2.61 UPSET
Feb 14 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ Team Boston 2–2
78% 11%
3.15 UPSET
Feb 14 MC Selects @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 1–4
4% 91%
0.14
Feb 15 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ Providence (South) - Joannette 8–1
88% 6%
0.19
Feb 15 South Shore Knights @ Team Boston 2–2
26% 54%
2.39
Feb 21 Team Boston @ Team Merrimack East 1–5
20% 63%
0.66
Feb 21 South Shore Knights @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 2–5
5% 89%
0.17
Feb 21 MC Selects @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 0–8
4% 91%
0.14
Feb 22 MC Selects @ Team Boston 3–1
25% 57%
1.98
Feb 22 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum 3–0
69% 14%
0.53
Feb 22 Providence (South) - Joannette @ South Shore Knights 1–3
41% 41%
1.29