The Sheet

What is Surprisal? Surprisal measures how surprising a result was, based on pre-game probabilities. 0 bits = perfectly predicted. 3+ bits = major upset. A result is flagged as an UPSET when surprisal exceeds 2.5 bits.

Standings

# Team GP W L T GF GA PTS Champ %
1 Boston Jr Dogs (White) 35 26 5 4 136 54 56 7%
2 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 35 25 6 4 143 53 54 82%
3 Team Merrimack East 35 22 8 5 99 67 49 9%
4 Team Boston 35 13 17 5 63 90 31 2%
5 Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum 35 10 16 9 49 59 29 0%
6 MC Selects 34 11 19 4 57 117 26 0%
7 Providence (South) - Joannette 35 6 23 6 69 127 18 0%
8 South Shore Knights 34 5 24 5 56 105 15 0%

Projected Finish

How the rest of the season could play out — remaining games are simulated with home ice and rating uncertainty, then finishing positions are tallied. Ranges show the likely spread, not a single guaranteed rank. An analytical model for discussion, not advice.

# Team Proj. Finish Win Division Proj. Points
1 Boston Jr Dogs (White) 1 100% 56 (56–56)
2 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 2 <1% 54 (54–54)
3 Team Merrimack East 3 <1% 49 (49–49)
4 Team Boston 4 <1% 31 (31–31)
5 Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum 5 <1% 29 (29–29)
6 MC Selects 6 <1% 27 (26–28)
7 Providence (South) - Joannette 7 <1% 18 (18–18)
8 South Shore Knights 8 <1% 16 (15–17)

Game Log

Oldest first
Date Matchup Score Pre-game Probability Surprisal Flag
Aug 01 MC Selects @ South Shore Knights Upcoming 50/50 —
Sep 06 South Shore Knights @ Providence (South) - Joannette 2–4 50/50 —
Sep 06 Team Merrimack East @ MC Selects 1–3 50/50 —
Sep 06 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 3–1 50/50 —
Sep 06 Team Boston @ Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum 1–3 50/50 —
Sep 07 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ MC Selects 10–1 50/50 —
Sep 07 Providence (South) - Joannette @ Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum 2–5 50/50 —
Sep 07 South Shore Knights @ Team Boston 2–4 50/50 —
Sep 13 Team Boston @ MC Selects 2–5 50/50 —
Sep 13 South Shore Knights @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 2–5 50/50 —
Sep 13 Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 0–4 50/50 —
Sep 13 Team Merrimack East @ Providence (South) - Joannette 6–0 50/50 —
Sep 14 Providence (South) - Joannette @ MC Selects 5–1
22% 65%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
2.18
Sep 14 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum 2–2 50/50 —
Sep 14 Team Merrimack East @ South Shore Knights 3–2 50/50 —
Sep 14 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Team Boston 9–2
87% 6%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
0.20
Sep 20 Providence (South) - Joannette @ Team Boston 1–3
48% 36%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
1.48
Sep 20 MC Selects @ South Shore Knights 1–7
45% 39%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
1.37
Sep 20 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 4–3
76% 13%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
0.40
Sep 21 Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum @ MC Selects 1–3
69% 17%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
2.54 UPSET
Sep 21 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Providence (South) - Joannette 8–1
91% 4%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
0.13
Sep 27 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Team Boston 1–3
93% 3%
5.08 UPSET
Sep 27 MC Selects @ Providence (South) - Joannette 5–3
39% 45%
1.36
Sep 27 Team Merrimack East @ Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum 0–1
46% 34%
1.55
Sep 27 South Shore Knights @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 1–7
22% 64%
0.65
Sep 28 Team Boston @ Team Merrimack East 0–2
29% 54%
0.88
Oct 04 Team Boston @ Providence (South) - Joannette 4–4
53% 32%
2.66 UPSET
Oct 04 Team Merrimack East @ MC Selects 5–3
64% 22%
0.65
Oct 04 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 3–4
63% 23%
2.11
Oct 05 Team Merrimack East @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 2–5
28% 56%
0.85
Oct 05 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Providence (South) - Joannette 4–3
94% 3%
0.10
Oct 11 Team Merrimack East @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 3–3
15% 73%
3.06 UPSET
Oct 11 Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 2–3
21% 64%
0.64
Oct 12 Providence (South) - Joannette @ Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum 3–2
22% 63%
2.15
Oct 12 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Team Merrimack East 4–1
64% 22%
0.64
Oct 18 Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum @ MC Selects 1–0
55% 29%
0.86
Oct 18 Providence (South) - Joannette @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 2–4
4% 92%
0.13
Oct 18 Team Boston @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 2–3
12% 77%
0.37
Oct 25 Team Boston @ Providence (South) - Joannette 6–2
45% 39%
1.16
Oct 25 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ MC Selects 9–1
81% 10%
0.31
Oct 25 Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 1–4
14% 74%
0.43
Oct 25 Team Merrimack East @ South Shore Knights 5–1
56% 29%
0.85
Oct 26 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ Providence (South) - Joannette 1–2
84% 8%
3.61 UPSET
Oct 26 MC Selects @ Team Merrimack East 0–3
14% 75%
0.41
Oct 26 Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum @ South Shore Knights 2–0
51% 32%
0.98
Oct 26 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Team Boston 7–2
80% 11%
0.33
Nov 01 Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum @ Team Boston 0–1
43% 38%
1.38
Nov 01 Providence (South) - Joannette @ South Shore Knights 7–1
44% 40%
1.17
Nov 01 MC Selects @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 2–4
2% 96%
0.06
Nov 01 Team Merrimack East @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 1–2
28% 56%
0.84
Nov 02 MC Selects @ Team Boston 2–1
24% 62%
2.07
Nov 02 Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum @ Team Merrimack East 2–2
29% 51%
2.35
Nov 02 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ South Shore Knights 2–0
93% 3%
0.10
Nov 08 South Shore Knights @ Team Boston 1–4
25% 60%
0.73
Nov 08 Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 0–2
13% 74%
0.43
Nov 09 Providence (South) - Joannette @ Team Merrimack East 4–4
22% 64%
2.81 UPSET
Nov 09 MC Selects @ South Shore Knights 1–1
45% 39%
2.62
Nov 09 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum 1–0
60% 23%
0.73
Nov 15 MC Selects @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 1–5
3% 93%
0.11
Nov 15 Team Boston @ Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum 1–0
35% 46%
1.51
Nov 15 Providence (South) - Joannette @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 3–7
12% 79%
0.34
Nov 16 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ MC Selects 10–1
84% 8%
0.26
Nov 16 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ South Shore Knights 4–2
91% 4%
0.13
Nov 16 Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum @ Providence (South) - Joannette 2–3
44% 38%
1.40
Nov 22 Providence (South) - Joannette @ MC Selects 0–3
60% 27%
1.91
Nov 22 Team Boston @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 1–4
12% 78%
0.36
Nov 22 Team Merrimack East @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 1–4
17% 70%
0.52
Nov 22 South Shore Knights @ Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum 2–2
24% 58%
2.47
Nov 23 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ South Shore Knights 3–1
87% 6%
0.20
Nov 29 Team Merrimack East @ Team Boston 4–1
52% 31%
0.95
Nov 29 Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 1–2
15% 71%
0.50
Nov 30 Providence (South) - Joannette @ Team Merrimack East 3–4
21% 66%
0.61
Nov 30 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ Team Boston 7–0
75% 13%
0.41
Dec 06 South Shore Knights @ MC Selects 1–3
39% 44%
1.18
Dec 06 Team Boston @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 1–4
6% 86%
0.21
Dec 06 Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum @ Team Merrimack East 1–1
28% 52%
2.36
Dec 07 Providence (South) - Joannette @ South Shore Knights 2–4
55% 30%
1.75
Dec 07 MC Selects @ Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum 1–1
25% 57%
2.49
Dec 13 Team Boston @ MC Selects 0–2
49% 34%
1.55
Dec 13 South Shore Knights @ Team Merrimack East 1–2
15% 72%
0.48
Dec 14 MC Selects @ Team Merrimack East 2–3
16% 71%
0.50
Dec 14 MC Selects @ Team Merrimack East 1–3
17% 70%
0.52
Dec 14 Providence (South) - Joannette @ Team Boston 0–1
41% 43%
1.22
Dec 20 Team Merrimack East @ Providence (South) - Joannette 5–2
61% 24%
0.71
Dec 20 Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum @ MC Selects 1–1
51% 30%
2.38
Dec 20 South Shore Knights @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 0–5
4% 92%
0.13
Dec 20 Team Boston @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 2–2
8% 85%
3.66 UPSET
Dec 21 Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum @ Providence (South) - Joannette 3–0
46% 36%
1.13
Dec 21 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Team Merrimack East 1–2
67% 19%
2.38
Dec 21 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ South Shore Knights 7–3
87% 6%
0.20
Dec 21 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Team Merrimack East 4–2
64% 21%
0.64
Dec 27 Providence (South) - Joannette @ Team Boston 0–1
37% 47%
1.09
Dec 28 Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum @ Team Boston 0–3
44% 34%
1.54
Dec 28 MC Selects @ Providence (South) - Joannette 3–1
35% 50%
1.53
Jan 03 Team Merrimack East @ Providence (South) - Joannette 3–2
67% 20%
0.58
Jan 03 Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum @ South Shore Knights 2–1
51% 29%
0.96
Jan 03 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 1–2
32% 52%
0.94
Jan 04 South Shore Knights @ Providence (South) - Joannette 1–1
32% 52%
2.66 UPSET
Jan 04 MC Selects @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 0–6
5% 89%
0.17
Jan 04 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum 1–1
73% 14%
2.87 UPSET
Jan 04 Team Boston @ Team Merrimack East 2–4
23% 61%
0.71
Jan 10 Team Merrimack East @ Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum 1–2
49% 31%
1.70
Jan 10 South Shore Knights @ MC Selects 2–3
36% 47%
1.09
Jan 10 Providence (South) - Joannette @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 0–5
5% 90%
0.15
Jan 10 Team Boston @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 3–0
7% 85%
3.81 UPSET
Jan 11 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Providence (South) - Joannette 2–2
88% 6%
4.04 UPSET
Jan 11 MC Selects @ Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum 1–2
26% 55%
0.86
Jan 11 Team Boston @ South Shore Knights 1–1
54% 29%
2.56 UPSET
Jan 11 Team Boston @ South Shore Knights 2–5
54% 29%
1.78
Jan 11 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ Team Merrimack East 3–4
63% 22%
2.18
Jan 18 South Shore Knights @ Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum 2–1
25% 56%
2.00
Jan 18 South Shore Knights @ Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum 1–4
26% 54%
0.89
Jan 24 Team Boston @ Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum 1–0
32% 47%
1.62
Jan 24 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ MC Selects 4–0
87% 6%
0.20
Jan 24 South Shore Knights @ Team Merrimack East 2–3
14% 73%
0.45
Jan 24 Providence (South) - Joannette @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 1–5
5% 89%
0.17
Jan 25 Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum @ Team Merrimack East 1–3
28% 52%
0.95
Jan 25 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ Providence (South) - Joannette 7–0
87% 6%
0.20
Jan 31 Providence (South) - Joannette @ MC Selects 2–2
42% 42%
2.60
Jan 31 Team Merrimack East @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 2–1
19% 68%
2.42
Jan 31 South Shore Knights @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 0–3
5% 90%
0.16
Feb 01 Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum @ Providence (South) - Joannette 2–2
50% 31%
2.41
Feb 01 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ South Shore Knights 1–0
88% 6%
0.19
Feb 01 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ MC Selects 8–1
87% 6%
0.20
Feb 01 Team Merrimack East @ Team Boston 3–0
59% 25%
0.77
Feb 07 Team Merrimack East @ South Shore Knights 3–0
70% 16%
0.51
Feb 07 Team Boston @ MC Selects 2–0
50% 33%
1.00
Feb 07 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 3–2
37% 46%
1.42
Feb 08 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum 1–1
70% 16%
2.76 UPSET
Feb 08 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ Team Merrimack East 3–3
59% 25%
2.69 UPSET
Feb 14 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ Team Boston 2–2
78% 11%
3.25 UPSET
Feb 14 MC Selects @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 1–4
4% 91%
0.13
Feb 15 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ Providence (South) - Joannette 8–1
87% 6%
0.20
Feb 15 South Shore Knights @ Team Boston 2–2
28% 54%
2.53 UPSET
Feb 21 Team Boston @ Team Merrimack East 1–5
21% 64%
0.64
Feb 21 South Shore Knights @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 2–5
5% 89%
0.17
Feb 21 MC Selects @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 0–8
4% 91%
0.13
Feb 22 MC Selects @ Team Boston 3–1
27% 57%
1.90
Feb 22 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum 3–0
70% 16%
0.52
Feb 22 Providence (South) - Joannette @ South Shore Knights 1–3
41% 42%
1.24