The Sheet

What is Surprisal? Surprisal measures how surprising a result was, based on pre-game probabilities. 0 bits = perfectly predicted. 3+ bits = major upset. A result is flagged as an UPSET when surprisal exceeds 2.5 bits.

Standings

# Team GP W L T GF GA PTS Champ %
1 Top Gun 35 26 5 4 176 56 56 —
2 Boston Jr Eagles 33 21 7 5 117 54 47 —
3 Minuteman Flames 35 20 9 6 122 85 46 —
4 Seacoast Spartans 30 22 8 0 155 61 44 —
5 Islanders Hockey Club 36 14 18 4 117 91 32 —
6 South Shore Kings 33 12 19 2 90 142 26 —
7 Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan 33 8 21 4 73 141 20 —
8 Boston Jr Terriers 34 8 23 3 73 150 19 —
9 Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers 8 8 0 0 57 7 16 —
10 Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB 33 2 31 0 35 228 4 —

Projected Finish

How the rest of the season could play out — remaining games are simulated with home ice and rating uncertainty, then finishing positions are tallied. Ranges show the likely spread, not a single guaranteed rank. An analytical model for discussion, not advice.

# Team Proj. Finish Win Division Proj. Points
1 Top Gun 1 100% 58 (58–58)
2 Boston Jr Eagles 2 (2–3) <1% 51 (49–53)
3 Seacoast Spartans 3 (2–4) <1% 49 (47–51)
4 Minuteman Flames 4 (3–4) <1% 46 (46–48)
5 Islanders Hockey Club 5 <1% 32 (32–32)
6 South Shore Kings 6 <1% 26 (26–27)
7 Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers 7 <1% 20 (20–20)
8 Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan 8 <1% 20 (20–20)
9 Boston Jr Terriers 9 <1% 19 (19–19)
10 Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB 10 <1% 4 (4–4)

Game Log

Oldest first
Date Matchup Score Pre-game Probability Surprisal Flag
Aug 01 Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan @ Top Gun Upcoming — —
Aug 01 Seacoast Spartans @ Boston Jr Eagles Upcoming — —
Aug 01 Seacoast Spartans @ Boston Jr Eagles Upcoming — —
Aug 01 South Shore Kings @ Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers Upcoming — —
Aug 01 Boston Jr Eagles @ Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB Upcoming — —
Aug 01 Seacoast Spartans @ South Shore Kings Upcoming — —
Aug 01 South Shore Kings @ Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers Upcoming — —
Sep 06 Islanders Hockey Club @ Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB 6–1 50/50 —
Sep 06 Minuteman Flames @ Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan 5–1 50/50 —
Sep 13 Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB @ Boston Jr Eagles 1–8 50/50 —
Sep 13 Boston Jr Terriers @ Minuteman Flames 3–2 50/50 —
Sep 13 Seacoast Spartans @ Islanders Hockey Club 2–1 50/50 —
Sep 14 Seacoast Spartans @ Minuteman Flames 2–3 50/50 —
Sep 14 Boston Jr Eagles @ Islanders Hockey Club 2–1 50/50 —
Sep 19 Boston Jr Eagles @ Seacoast Spartans 2–0
38% 27%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
1.38
Sep 20 Boston Jr Terriers @ Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan 2–4 50/50 —
Sep 20 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Eagles 0–0 50/50 —
Sep 20 Islanders Hockey Club @ South Shore Kings 4–0
38% 32%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
1.41
Sep 20 Seacoast Spartans @ Minuteman Flames 4–5
27% 46%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
1.12
Sep 21 Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan @ Seacoast Spartans 2–8
30% 43%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
1.22
Sep 21 Minuteman Flames @ Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB 10–1
80% 10%
0.33
Sep 21 Boston Jr Eagles @ South Shore Kings 8–5
50% 17%
1.01
Sep 21 Top Gun @ Islanders Hockey Club 4–3 50/50 —
Sep 27 Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB @ Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan 3–1
16% 70%
2.60 UPSET
Sep 27 Boston Jr Terriers @ South Shore Kings 2–3 50/50 —
Sep 27 Boston Jr Eagles @ Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers 1–5 50/50 —
Sep 27 Minuteman Flames @ Islanders Hockey Club 4–1
50% 34%
1.01
Sep 27 Top Gun @ Seacoast Spartans 4–3
28% 46%
1.83
Sep 27 Boston Jr Eagles @ Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers 0–5
36% 38%
1.38
Sep 28 Minuteman Flames @ Seacoast Spartans 1–3
54% 28%
1.84
Sep 28 Islanders Hockey Club @ Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan 2–2
65% 19%
2.59 UPSET
Sep 28 Top Gun @ South Shore Kings 7–1
49% 29%
1.04
Sep 28 Boston Jr Terriers @ Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB 6–3
69% 17%
0.53
Sep 28 Top Gun @ South Shore Kings 8–1
70% 15%
0.52
Oct 04 Seacoast Spartans @ Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan 9–1
63% 18%
0.66
Oct 04 Islanders Hockey Club @ Top Gun 2–1
20% 62%
2.31
Oct 05 Boston Jr Terriers @ Seacoast Spartans 1–7
18% 66%
0.59
Oct 10 Islanders Hockey Club @ Seacoast Spartans 3–4
24% 56%
0.82
Oct 11 Seacoast Spartans @ South Shore Kings 3–1
80% 9%
0.31
Oct 11 Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan @ Islanders Hockey Club 2–6
13% 73%
0.45
Oct 11 Boston Jr Eagles @ Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB 7–0
80% 9%
0.32
Oct 11 South Shore Kings @ Seacoast Spartans 2–8
8% 82%
0.28
Oct 12 Islanders Hockey Club @ Seacoast Spartans 0–2
24% 58%
0.78
Oct 12 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Eagles 0–9
12% 75%
0.42
Oct 18 Boston Jr Eagles @ Top Gun 2–1
36% 43%
1.48
Oct 18 Islanders Hockey Club @ Minuteman Flames 2–2
25% 58%
2.52 UPSET
Oct 18 Seacoast Spartans @ Boston Jr Terriers 9–2
78% 10%
0.35
Oct 19 Minuteman Flames @ Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers 0–10
37% 41%
1.30
Oct 19 Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB @ Islanders Hockey Club 0–8
5% 87%
0.20
Oct 19 Boston Jr Eagles @ Seacoast Spartans 3–4
34% 45%
1.16
Oct 19 Minuteman Flames @ Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers 2–8
13% 74%
0.44
Oct 19 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Terriers 4–2
36% 47%
1.47
Oct 25 Boston Jr Terriers @ Boston Jr Eagles 0–5
6% 87%
0.20
Oct 25 Boston Jr Terriers @ Boston Jr Eagles 3–4
4% 89%
0.17
Nov 01 Boston Jr Terriers @ Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan 4–4
44% 39%
2.56
Nov 01 Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB @ Seacoast Spartans 2–7
1% 97%
0.04
Nov 01 South Shore Kings @ Top Gun 2–6
7% 84%
0.25
Nov 01 Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB @ Seacoast Spartans 0–8
1% 97%
0.04
Nov 08 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Terriers 6–0
86% 6%
0.22
Nov 08 Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan @ South Shore Kings 3–2
32% 50%
1.63
Nov 08 Seacoast Spartans @ Islanders Hockey Club 5–3
52% 28%
0.94
Nov 08 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Terriers 6–1
89% 5%
0.17
Nov 09 Seacoast Spartans @ Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan 4–1
88% 5%
0.18
Nov 09 Islanders Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Eagles 1–2
27% 52%
0.95
Nov 15 Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers @ Top Gun 4–3
54% 27%
0.90
Nov 15 Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers @ Top Gun 8–1
55% 27%
0.87
Nov 15 Boston Jr Terriers @ Islanders Hockey Club 2–6
9% 82%
0.29
Nov 15 Boston Jr Eagles @ Minuteman Flames 2–3
56% 26%
1.93
Nov 16 Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan @ Boston Jr Eagles 1–4
6% 84%
0.25
Nov 16 Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers @ Islanders Hockey Club 8–0
76% 11%
0.40
Nov 16 South Shore Kings @ Seacoast Spartans 3–12
5% 88%
0.19
Nov 16 Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers @ Islanders Hockey Club 9–0
84% 7%
0.25
Nov 16 Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan @ Boston Jr Eagles 1–4
6% 84%
0.24
Nov 16 Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Terriers 5–2
82% 9%
0.28
Nov 22 Islanders Hockey Club @ South Shore Kings 3–4
67% 18%
2.47
Nov 22 Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB @ Boston Jr Eagles 1–8
1% 95%
0.07
Nov 22 Minuteman Flames @ Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan 1–2
78% 11%
3.13 UPSET
Nov 23 Islanders Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Terriers 4–0
73% 15%
0.46
Nov 23 South Shore Kings @ Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB 6–0
72% 16%
0.48
Nov 30 Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan @ Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB 4–0
69% 17%
0.53
Nov 30 Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB @ Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan 1–4
11% 77%
0.38
Dec 06 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Eagles 4–1
36% 42%
1.47
Dec 06 South Shore Kings @ Minuteman Flames 0–3
16% 72%
0.48
Dec 06 Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB @ Boston Jr Terriers 1–6
13% 75%
0.41
Dec 07 Boston Jr Terriers @ Islanders Hockey Club 0–7
12% 78%
0.37
Dec 07 Seacoast Spartans @ Minuteman Flames 3–5
61% 24%
2.09
Dec 13 Top Gun @ Minuteman Flames 2–5
56% 27%
1.87
Dec 13 Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB @ South Shore Kings 3–5
7% 84%
0.25
Dec 14 Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Eagles 1–1
29% 51%
2.34
Dec 14 Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Eagles 1–1
30% 50%
2.29
Dec 14 Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB @ Islanders Hockey Club 1–10
2% 95%
0.07
Dec 20 Boston Jr Terriers @ Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB 2–0
73% 15%
0.45
Dec 20 South Shore Kings @ Top Gun 0–5
7% 85%
0.23
Dec 20 Islanders Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Eagles 2–5
25% 54%
0.89
Dec 21 Boston Jr Eagles @ South Shore Kings 6–2
78% 10%
0.36
Dec 21 Islanders Hockey Club @ Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan 7–4
69% 16%
0.53
Dec 21 Boston Jr Terriers @ Minuteman Flames 2–4
5% 88%
0.19
Dec 27 Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan @ Minuteman Flames 1–8
10% 80%
0.33
Dec 27 Boston Jr Terriers @ South Shore Kings 8–2
29% 55%
1.80
Dec 27 Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB @ Top Gun 0–9
0% 99%
0.02
Dec 27 Boston Jr Terriers @ South Shore Kings 2–7
36% 47%
1.09
Dec 27 Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB @ Top Gun 0–10
0% 99%
0.01
Dec 28 Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB @ Boston Jr Eagles 1–5
0% 98%
0.03
Dec 28 Top Gun @ Minuteman Flames 1–1
51% 31%
2.48
Dec 28 Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan @ South Shore Kings 2–4
34% 49%
1.04
Dec 28 Boston Jr Eagles @ Boston Jr Terriers 3–0
85% 6%
0.23
Jan 03 Islanders Hockey Club @ Top Gun 3–3
19% 65%
2.70 UPSET
Jan 03 Boston Jr Terriers @ Seacoast Spartans 0–6
3% 94%
0.10
Jan 03 Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan @ Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB 3–5
78% 11%
3.21 UPSET
Jan 04 Islanders Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Terriers 6–0
79% 11%
0.33
Jan 04 Boston Jr Eagles @ Minuteman Flames 2–2
44% 34%
2.20
Jan 04 Top Gun @ Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan 4–2
89% 4%
0.16
Jan 04 Seacoast Spartans @ Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB 8–0
99% 0%
0.01
Jan 04 Top Gun @ Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan 10–0
88% 5%
0.18
Jan 10 Minuteman Flames @ South Shore Kings 4–3
78% 11%
0.37
Jan 10 Minuteman Flames @ South Shore Kings 6–2
76% 12%
0.39
Jan 10 Top Gun @ Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB 10–0
99% 0%
0.01
Jan 11 Top Gun @ Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB 11–1
99% 0%
0.01
Jan 11 Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB @ Boston Jr Terriers 1–6
11% 79%
0.34
Jan 11 South Shore Kings @ Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan 2–2
52% 32%
2.58 UPSET
Jan 11 Boston Jr Eagles @ Top Gun 3–4
29% 49%
1.02
Jan 11 Islanders Hockey Club @ Minuteman Flames 4–3
32% 51%
1.66
Jan 17 Minuteman Flames @ Top Gun 0–3
23% 61%
0.72
Jan 17 Minuteman Flames @ Top Gun 3–8
21% 62%
0.68
Jan 18 Minuteman Flames @ Seacoast Spartans Upcoming — —
Jan 24 Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB @ Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan 1–8
10% 79%
0.35
Jan 24 Islanders Hockey Club @ Minuteman Flames 0–1
35% 47%
1.08
Jan 24 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Eagles 0–3
8% 82%
0.29
Jan 24 Seacoast Spartans @ Top Gun 1–4
33% 49%
1.02
Jan 25 Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan @ Islanders Hockey Club 2–1
8% 82%
3.56 UPSET
Jan 25 Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB @ Minuteman Flames 3–9
0% 98%
0.02
Jan 25 Seacoast Spartans @ South Shore Kings 5–2
86% 6%
0.22
Jan 25 Boston Jr Eagles @ Boston Jr Terriers 5–1
86% 6%
0.23
Jan 31 Boston Jr Terriers @ Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan 4–1
35% 48%
1.53
Jan 31 Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB @ South Shore Kings 2–6
6% 88%
0.19
Feb 01 Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan @ Boston Jr Terriers 2–3
40% 43%
1.22
Feb 06 Top Gun @ Seacoast Spartans 5–3
47% 35%
1.09
Feb 07 South Shore Kings @ Minuteman Flames 1–3
10% 80%
0.33
Feb 07 Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan @ Top Gun 0–10
2% 95%
0.07
Feb 07 Islanders Hockey Club @ Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB 9–1
97% 1%
0.05
Feb 08 Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan @ Minuteman Flames 1–2
6% 86%
0.22
Feb 08 Boston Jr Terriers @ Top Gun 0–9
1% 96%
0.05
Feb 08 South Shore Kings @ Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB 3–2
86% 7%
0.23
Feb 08 Boston Jr Eagles @ Islanders Hockey Club 1–0
50% 29%
0.99
Feb 08 Boston Jr Terriers @ Top Gun 0–7
1% 97%
0.04
Feb 13 Seacoast Spartans @ Boston Jr Terriers 7–1
92% 3%
0.12
Feb 14 Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan @ Seacoast Spartans 1–8
3% 93%
0.11
Feb 15 Minuteman Flames @ Islanders Hockey Club 0–4
42% 38%
1.38
Feb 15 Minuteman Flames @ Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB 6–0
97% 1%
0.04
Feb 15 Seacoast Spartans @ Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB 9–0
99% 0%
0.01
Feb 15 Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan @ Boston Jr Terriers 4–2
39% 43%
1.35
Feb 20 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Terriers 4–4
52% 31%
2.60 UPSET
Feb 21 Boston Jr Eagles @ Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan 3–3
85% 6%
3.38 UPSET
Feb 21 Seacoast Spartans @ Top Gun 1–3
27% 56%
0.84
Feb 21 South Shore Kings @ Islanders Hockey Club 4–1
12% 77%
3.10 UPSET
Feb 21 Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB @ Minuteman Flames 0–10
1% 98%
0.03
Feb 21 South Shore Kings @ Islanders Hockey Club 4–2
14% 74%
2.85 UPSET
Feb 21 Boston Jr Eagles @ Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan 7–0
84% 6%
0.26
Feb 22 Top Gun @ Islanders Hockey Club 2–2
72% 15%
2.86 UPSET
Feb 22 South Shore Kings @ Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan 5–4
54% 30%
0.90
Feb 22 Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Terriers 2–2
84% 7%
3.58 UPSET
Mar 07 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Eagles 1–0
51% 28%
0.98
Mar 08 Top Gun @ Islanders Hockey Club 4–3
71% 15%
0.50