The Sheet

What is Surprisal? Surprisal measures how surprising a result was, based on pre-game probabilities. 0 bits = perfectly predicted. 3+ bits = major upset. A result is flagged as an UPSET when surprisal exceeds 2.5 bits.

Standings

# Team GP W L T GF GA PTS Champ %
1 Top Gun 35 26 5 4 176 56 56 —
2 Boston Jr Eagles 33 21 7 5 117 54 47 —
3 Minuteman Flames 35 20 9 6 122 85 46 —
4 Seacoast Spartans 30 22 8 0 155 61 44 —
5 Islanders Hockey Club 36 14 18 4 117 91 32 —
6 South Shore Kings 33 12 19 2 90 142 26 —
7 Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan 33 8 21 4 73 141 20 —
8 Boston Jr Terriers 34 8 23 3 73 150 19 —
9 Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers 8 8 0 0 57 7 16 —
10 Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB 33 2 31 0 35 228 4 —

Projected Finish

How the rest of the season could play out — remaining games are simulated with home ice and rating uncertainty, then finishing positions are tallied. Ranges show the likely spread, not a single guaranteed rank. An analytical model for discussion, not advice.

# Team Proj. Finish Win Division Proj. Points
1 Top Gun 1 100% 58 (58–58)
2 Boston Jr Eagles 2 (2–3) <1% 51 (49–53)
3 Seacoast Spartans 3 (2–4) <1% 49 (47–51)
4 Minuteman Flames 4 (3–4) <1% 46 (46–48)
5 Islanders Hockey Club 5 <1% 32 (32–32)
6 South Shore Kings 6 <1% 26 (26–27)
7 Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers 7 <1% 20 (20–20)
8 Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan 8 <1% 20 (20–20)
9 Boston Jr Terriers 9 <1% 19 (19–19)
10 Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB 10 <1% 4 (4–4)

Game Log

Oldest first
Date Matchup Score Pre-game Probability Surprisal Flag
Aug 01 Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan @ Top Gun Upcoming 50/50 —
Aug 01 Seacoast Spartans @ Boston Jr Eagles Upcoming 50/50 —
Aug 01 Seacoast Spartans @ Boston Jr Eagles Upcoming 50/50 —
Aug 01 South Shore Kings @ Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers Upcoming 50/50 —
Aug 01 Boston Jr Eagles @ Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB Upcoming 50/50 —
Aug 01 Seacoast Spartans @ South Shore Kings Upcoming 50/50 —
Aug 01 South Shore Kings @ Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers Upcoming 50/50 —
Sep 06 Islanders Hockey Club @ Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB 6–1 50/50 —
Sep 06 Minuteman Flames @ Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan 5–1 50/50 —
Sep 13 Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB @ Boston Jr Eagles 1–8 50/50 —
Sep 13 Boston Jr Terriers @ Minuteman Flames 3–2 50/50 —
Sep 13 Seacoast Spartans @ Islanders Hockey Club 2–1 50/50 —
Sep 14 Seacoast Spartans @ Minuteman Flames 2–3 50/50 —
Sep 14 Boston Jr Eagles @ Islanders Hockey Club 2–1 50/50 —
Sep 19 Boston Jr Eagles @ Seacoast Spartans 2–0 50/50 —
Sep 20 Boston Jr Terriers @ Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan 2–4 50/50 —
Sep 20 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Eagles 0–0 50/50 —
Sep 20 Islanders Hockey Club @ South Shore Kings 4–0 50/50 —
Sep 20 Seacoast Spartans @ Minuteman Flames 4–5
29% 50%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
1.00
Sep 21 Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan @ Seacoast Spartans 2–8 50/50 —
Sep 21 Minuteman Flames @ Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB 10–1 50/50 —
Sep 21 Boston Jr Eagles @ South Shore Kings 8–5 50/50 —
Sep 21 Top Gun @ Islanders Hockey Club 4–3 50/50 —
Sep 27 Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB @ Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan 3–1
14% 77%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
2.89 UPSET
Sep 27 Boston Jr Terriers @ South Shore Kings 2–3 50/50 —
Sep 27 Boston Jr Eagles @ Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers 1–5 50/50 —
Sep 27 Minuteman Flames @ Islanders Hockey Club 4–1
47% 35%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
1.08
Sep 27 Top Gun @ Seacoast Spartans 4–3 50/50 —
Sep 27 Boston Jr Eagles @ Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers 0–5 50/50 —
Sep 28 Minuteman Flames @ Seacoast Spartans 1–3
54% 30%
1.71
Sep 28 Islanders Hockey Club @ Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan 2–2
67% 18%
2.69 UPSET
Sep 28 Top Gun @ South Shore Kings 7–1
70% 18%
0.52
Sep 28 Boston Jr Terriers @ Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB 6–3
70% 17%
0.51
Sep 28 Top Gun @ South Shore Kings 8–1
84% 8%
0.26
Oct 04 Seacoast Spartans @ Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan 9–1
76% 13%
0.40
Oct 04 Islanders Hockey Club @ Top Gun 2–1
18% 65%
2.45
Oct 05 Boston Jr Terriers @ Seacoast Spartans 1–7
14% 73%
0.45
Oct 10 Islanders Hockey Club @ Seacoast Spartans 3–4
22% 61%
0.71
Oct 11 Seacoast Spartans @ South Shore Kings 3–1
92% 4%
0.12
Oct 11 Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan @ Islanders Hockey Club 2–6
12% 76%
0.40
Oct 11 Boston Jr Eagles @ Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB 7–0
88% 5%
0.18
Oct 11 South Shore Kings @ Seacoast Spartans 2–8
4% 90%
0.15
Oct 12 Islanders Hockey Club @ Seacoast Spartans 0–2
24% 59%
0.77
Oct 12 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Eagles 0–9
7% 86%
0.22
Oct 18 Boston Jr Eagles @ Top Gun 2–1
37% 44%
1.44
Oct 18 Islanders Hockey Club @ Minuteman Flames 2–2
25% 56%
2.43
Oct 18 Seacoast Spartans @ Boston Jr Terriers 9–2
80% 10%
0.32
Oct 19 Minuteman Flames @ Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers 0–10 50/50 —
Oct 19 Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB @ Islanders Hockey Club 0–8
5% 88%
0.18
Oct 19 Boston Jr Eagles @ Seacoast Spartans 3–4
40% 40%
1.31
Oct 19 Minuteman Flames @ Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers 2–8
4% 90%
0.15
Oct 19 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Terriers 4–2
30% 56%
1.75
Oct 25 Boston Jr Terriers @ Boston Jr Eagles 0–5
4% 90%
0.16
Oct 25 Boston Jr Terriers @ Boston Jr Eagles 3–4
3% 91%
0.14
Nov 01 Boston Jr Terriers @ Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan 4–4
46% 37%
2.59
Nov 01 Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB @ Seacoast Spartans 2–7
0% 99%
0.02
Nov 01 South Shore Kings @ Top Gun 2–6
3% 93%
0.11
Nov 01 Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB @ Seacoast Spartans 0–8
1% 98%
0.03
Nov 08 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Terriers 6–0
86% 6%
0.21
Nov 08 Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan @ South Shore Kings 3–2
36% 49%
1.47
Nov 08 Seacoast Spartans @ Islanders Hockey Club 5–3
52% 29%
0.95
Nov 08 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Terriers 6–1
89% 4%
0.16
Nov 09 Seacoast Spartans @ Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan 4–1
92% 4%
0.13
Nov 09 Islanders Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Eagles 1–2
24% 56%
0.83
Nov 15 Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers @ Top Gun 4–3
74% 14%
0.43
Nov 15 Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers @ Top Gun 8–1
71% 16%
0.49
Nov 15 Boston Jr Terriers @ Islanders Hockey Club 2–6
9% 80%
0.31
Nov 15 Boston Jr Eagles @ Minuteman Flames 2–3
55% 27%
1.90
Nov 16 Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan @ Boston Jr Eagles 1–4
4% 90%
0.16
Nov 16 Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers @ Islanders Hockey Club 8–0
90% 5%
0.16
Nov 16 South Shore Kings @ Seacoast Spartans 3–12
2% 94%
0.08
Nov 16 Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers @ Islanders Hockey Club 9–0
94% 2%
0.10
Nov 16 Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan @ Boston Jr Eagles 1–4
4% 89%
0.16
Nov 16 Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Terriers 5–2
84% 8%
0.24
Nov 22 Islanders Hockey Club @ South Shore Kings 3–4
79% 11%
3.24 UPSET
Nov 22 Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB @ Boston Jr Eagles 1–8
1% 97%
0.04
Nov 22 Minuteman Flames @ Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan 1–2
82% 9%
3.54 UPSET
Nov 23 Islanders Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Terriers 4–0
73% 14%
0.45
Nov 23 South Shore Kings @ Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB 6–0
67% 21%
0.58
Nov 29 Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan @ Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB 4–0
70% 16%
0.51
Nov 30 Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB @ Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan 1–4
11% 78%
0.36
Dec 06 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Eagles 4–1
37% 42%
1.42
Dec 06 South Shore Kings @ Minuteman Flames 0–3
8% 84%
0.25
Dec 06 Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB @ Boston Jr Terriers 1–6
13% 76%
0.39
Dec 07 Boston Jr Terriers @ Islanders Hockey Club 0–7
11% 78%
0.36
Dec 07 Seacoast Spartans @ Minuteman Flames 3–5
56% 28%
1.84
Dec 13 Top Gun @ Minuteman Flames 2–5
56% 26%
1.94
Dec 13 Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB @ South Shore Kings 3–5
9% 83%
0.28
Dec 14 Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Eagles 1–1
29% 51%
2.35
Dec 14 Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Eagles 1–1
30% 50%
2.29
Dec 14 Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB @ Islanders Hockey Club 1–10
1% 96%
0.06
Dec 20 Boston Jr Terriers @ Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB 2–0
74% 14%
0.43
Dec 20 South Shore Kings @ Top Gun 0–5
3% 93%
0.10
Dec 20 Islanders Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Eagles 2–5
24% 55%
0.86
Dec 21 Boston Jr Eagles @ South Shore Kings 6–2
88% 5%
0.18
Dec 21 Islanders Hockey Club @ Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan 7–4
72% 14%
0.47
Dec 21 Boston Jr Terriers @ Minuteman Flames 2–4
5% 88%
0.18
Dec 27 Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan @ Minuteman Flames 1–8
8% 82%
0.28
Dec 27 Boston Jr Terriers @ South Shore Kings 8–2
36% 49%
1.49
Dec 27 Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB @ Top Gun 0–9
0% 99%
0.01
Dec 27 Boston Jr Terriers @ South Shore Kings 2–7
44% 41%
1.30
Dec 27 Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB @ Top Gun 0–10
0% 99%
0.01
Dec 28 Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB @ Boston Jr Eagles 1–5
0% 99%
0.02
Dec 28 Top Gun @ Minuteman Flames 1–1
51% 30%
2.40
Dec 28 Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan @ South Shore Kings 2–4
40% 44%
1.17
Dec 28 Boston Jr Eagles @ Boston Jr Terriers 3–0
88% 5%
0.19
Jan 03 Islanders Hockey Club @ Top Gun 3–3
19% 65%
2.63 UPSET
Jan 03 Boston Jr Terriers @ Seacoast Spartans 0–6
3% 94%
0.09
Jan 03 Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan @ Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB 3–5
78% 11%
3.17 UPSET
Jan 04 Islanders Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Terriers 6–0
80% 10%
0.32
Jan 04 Boston Jr Eagles @ Minuteman Flames 2–2
43% 35%
2.19
Jan 04 Top Gun @ Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan 4–2
92% 3%
0.12
Jan 04 Seacoast Spartans @ Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB 8–0
99% 0%
0.01
Jan 04 Top Gun @ Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan 10–0
91% 4%
0.14
Jan 10 Minuteman Flames @ South Shore Kings 4–3
86% 7%
0.22
Jan 10 Minuteman Flames @ South Shore Kings 6–2
84% 8%
0.25
Jan 10 Top Gun @ Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB 10–0
99% 0%
0.01
Jan 10 Top Gun @ Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB 11–1
99% 0%
0.01
Jan 11 Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB @ Boston Jr Terriers 1–6
11% 79%
0.34
Jan 11 South Shore Kings @ Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan 2–2
48% 36%
2.68
Jan 11 Boston Jr Eagles @ Top Gun 3–4
29% 50%
1.00
Jan 11 Islanders Hockey Club @ Minuteman Flames 4–3
32% 49%
1.66
Jan 17 Minuteman Flames @ Top Gun 0–3
22% 61%
0.72
Jan 17 Minuteman Flames @ Top Gun 3–8
21% 62%
0.68
Jan 18 Minuteman Flames @ Seacoast Spartans Upcoming
27% 57%
—
Jan 24 Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB @ Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan 1–8
11% 78%
0.36
Jan 24 Islanders Hockey Club @ Minuteman Flames 0–1
36% 46%
1.13
Jan 24 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Eagles 0–3
4% 89%
0.16
Jan 24 Seacoast Spartans @ Top Gun 1–4
28% 56%
0.85
Jan 25 Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan @ Islanders Hockey Club 2–1
7% 84%
3.83 UPSET
Jan 25 Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB @ Minuteman Flames 3–9
0% 98%
0.02
Jan 25 Seacoast Spartans @ South Shore Kings 5–2
91% 4%
0.13
Jan 25 Boston Jr Eagles @ Boston Jr Terriers 5–1
87% 5%
0.19
Jan 31 Boston Jr Terriers @ Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan 4–1
36% 46%
1.46
Jan 31 Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB @ South Shore Kings 2–6
6% 87%
0.21
Feb 01 Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan @ Boston Jr Terriers 2–3
38% 44%
1.17
Feb 06 Top Gun @ Seacoast Spartans 5–3
53% 30%
0.92
Feb 07 South Shore Kings @ Minuteman Flames 1–3
7% 86%
0.23
Feb 07 Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan @ Top Gun 0–10
1% 96%
0.05
Feb 07 Islanders Hockey Club @ Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB 9–1
97% 1%
0.05
Feb 08 Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan @ Minuteman Flames 1–2
5% 88%
0.19
Feb 08 Boston Jr Terriers @ Top Gun 0–9
1% 97%
0.05
Feb 08 South Shore Kings @ Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB 3–2
84% 8%
0.25
Feb 08 Boston Jr Eagles @ Islanders Hockey Club 1–0
51% 28%
0.98
Feb 08 Boston Jr Terriers @ Top Gun 0–7
1% 97%
0.04
Feb 13 Seacoast Spartans @ Boston Jr Terriers 7–1
92% 3%
0.12
Feb 14 Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan @ Seacoast Spartans 1–8
2% 94%
0.09
Feb 14 Minuteman Flames @ Islanders Hockey Club 0–4
41% 39%
1.35
Feb 15 Minuteman Flames @ Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB 6–0
98% 1%
0.04
Feb 15 Seacoast Spartans @ Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB 9–0
100% 0%
0.01
Feb 15 Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan @ Boston Jr Terriers 4–2
38% 45%
1.40
Feb 20 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Terriers 4–4
47% 36%
2.63
Feb 21 Boston Jr Eagles @ Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan 3–3
88% 4%
3.72 UPSET
Feb 21 Seacoast Spartans @ Top Gun 1–3
23% 62%
0.70
Feb 21 South Shore Kings @ Islanders Hockey Club 4–1
8% 83%
3.66 UPSET
Feb 21 Bay State Breakers 13U Tier 1 NB @ Minuteman Flames 0–10
0% 98%
0.03
Feb 21 South Shore Kings @ Islanders Hockey Club 4–2
10% 80%
3.34 UPSET
Feb 21 Boston Jr Eagles @ Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan 7–0
87% 5%
0.21
Feb 22 Top Gun @ Islanders Hockey Club 2–2
71% 14%
2.81 UPSET
Feb 22 South Shore Kings @ Providence Capitals (NB) - Meehan 5–4
51% 33%
0.98
Feb 22 Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Terriers 2–2
85% 7%
3.57 UPSET
Mar 07 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Eagles 1–0
52% 28%
0.96
Mar 08 Top Gun @ Islanders Hockey Club 4–3
71% 15%
0.50