The Sheet

What is Surprisal? Surprisal measures how surprising a result was, based on pre-game probabilities. 0 bits = perfectly predicted. 3+ bits = major upset. A result is flagged as an UPSET when surprisal exceeds 2.5 bits.

Standings

# Team GP W L T GF GA PTS Champ %
1 Seacoast Spartans 34 24 3 7 130 60 55 100%
2 South Shore Kings 35 24 8 3 154 85 51 0%
3 Islanders Hockey Club (East) 34 15 12 7 111 121 37 0%
4 Boston Jr Eagles 35 13 12 10 142 135 36 0%
5 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 35 15 15 5 86 81 35 0%
6 Minuteman Flames - Hogan 24 13 7 4 85 60 30 0%
7 NorthStars Hockey Club 33 13 17 3 126 156 29 0%
8 Providence Capitals (North) - Batista 34 12 17 5 107 143 29 0%
9 Top Gun 36 5 24 7 87 150 17 —
10 Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum 34 4 23 7 83 120 15 —

Projected Finish

How the rest of the season could play out — remaining games are simulated with home ice and rating uncertainty, then finishing positions are tallied. Ranges show the likely spread, not a single guaranteed rank. An analytical model for discussion, not advice.

# Team Proj. Finish Win Division Proj. Points
1 Seacoast Spartans 1 100% 55 (55–55)
2 South Shore Kings 2 <1% 51 (51–51)
3 Islanders Hockey Club (East) 3 (3–4) <1% 37 (37–37)
4 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 4 (3–5) <1% 36 (35–37)
5 Boston Jr Eagles 4 (4–5) <1% 36 (36–36)
6 Minuteman Flames - Hogan 6 <1% 33 (31–34)
7 NorthStars Hockey Club 7 (6–7) <1% 29 (29–31)
8 Providence Capitals (North) - Batista 8 <1% 29 (29–29)
9 Top Gun 9 <1% 17 (17–17)
10 Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum 10 <1% 15 (15–15)

Game Log

Oldest first
Date Matchup Score Pre-game Probability Surprisal Flag
Aug 01 Minuteman Flames - Hogan @ NorthStars Hockey Club Upcoming 50/50 —
Aug 01 Minuteman Flames - Hogan @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) Upcoming 50/50 —
Sep 06 Boston Jr Eagles @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum 2–2 50/50 —
Sep 06 NorthStars Hockey Club @ Top Gun 5–3 50/50 —
Sep 07 Providence Capitals (North) - Batista @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum 2–2 50/50 —
Sep 13 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Providence Capitals (North) - Batista 5–9 50/50 —
Sep 13 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Top Gun 5–0 50/50 —
Sep 13 NorthStars Hockey Club @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum 6–6 50/50 —
Sep 13 Seacoast Spartans @ South Shore Kings 5–1 50/50 —
Sep 14 Top Gun @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum 0–6 50/50 —
Sep 14 Boston Jr Eagles @ Seacoast Spartans 0–4 50/50 —
Sep 14 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 2–1 50/50 —
Sep 14 South Shore Kings @ Providence Capitals (North) - Batista 4–0 50/50 —
Sep 20 Boston Jr Eagles @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 3–3 50/50 —
Sep 20 Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum @ Providence Capitals (North) - Batista 4–5
46% 38%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
1.40
Sep 20 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ South Shore Kings 2–4 50/50 —
Sep 21 Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum @ Seacoast Spartans 0–3 50/50 —
Sep 21 Top Gun @ Providence Capitals (North) - Batista 2–4
10% 82%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
0.28
Sep 21 South Shore Kings @ NorthStars Hockey Club 6–8 50/50 —
Sep 27 Top Gun @ Seacoast Spartans 4–4
3% 92%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
4.27 UPSET
Sep 27 Providence Capitals (North) - Batista @ NorthStars Hockey Club 4–5
35% 53%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
0.92
Sep 27 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum 5–2
28% 58%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
1.82
Sep 27 Boston Jr Eagles @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 4–0
30% 52%
1.75
Sep 28 NorthStars Hockey Club @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum 4–3
48% 38%
1.05
Sep 28 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Seacoast Spartans 2–5
18% 70%
0.53
Sep 28 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Eagles 8–4
40% 43%
1.32
Oct 04 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 0–2
24% 60%
0.73
Oct 05 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Seacoast Spartans 1–1
16% 68%
2.66 UPSET
Oct 05 Top Gun @ Providence Capitals (North) - Batista 1–6
14% 74%
0.43
Oct 11 Providence Capitals (North) - Batista @ Boston Jr Eagles 5–8
48% 36%
1.48
Oct 11 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 3–2
37% 44%
1.42
Oct 12 Boston Jr Eagles @ NorthStars Hockey Club 7–2
35% 52%
1.51
Oct 12 Seacoast Spartans @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum 5–4
64% 19%
0.63
Oct 18 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Seacoast Spartans 3–1
17% 71%
2.57 UPSET
Oct 18 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 1–1
49% 33%
2.45
Oct 19 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ NorthStars Hockey Club 4–3
41% 42%
1.30
Oct 19 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Eagles 5–4
42% 44%
1.26
Oct 25 NorthStars Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Eagles 1–5
28% 60%
0.74
Oct 25 South Shore Kings @ Top Gun 5–2
85% 8%
0.23
Oct 25 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum 2–1
43% 35%
1.21
Oct 26 Seacoast Spartans @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 1–2
48% 29%
1.79
Oct 26 Providence Capitals (North) - Batista @ South Shore Kings 1–6
26% 62%
0.70
Oct 26 Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum @ Boston Jr Eagles 3–3
23% 63%
2.82 UPSET
Nov 01 Seacoast Spartans @ Boston Jr Eagles 6–3
46% 36%
1.12
Nov 01 South Shore Kings @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum 7–6
62% 24%
0.70
Nov 01 Top Gun @ NorthStars Hockey Club 6–4
13% 77%
2.91 UPSET
Nov 02 South Shore Kings @ Seacoast Spartans 1–1
33% 51%
2.68 UPSET
Nov 02 Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum @ Providence Capitals (North) - Batista 0–2
38% 46%
1.11
Nov 02 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Eagles 5–5
11% 80%
3.41 UPSET
Nov 08 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Boston Jr Eagles 7–3
38% 48%
1.40
Nov 08 South Shore Kings @ Minuteman Flames - Hogan 3–1 50/50 —
Nov 09 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Minuteman Flames - Hogan 1–6 50/50 —
Nov 09 Boston Jr Eagles @ South Shore Kings 2–5
22% 65%
0.61
Nov 15 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Providence Capitals (North) - Batista 5–5
45% 41%
2.77
Nov 15 Boston Jr Eagles @ Seacoast Spartans 1–6
21% 64%
0.64
Nov 15 Top Gun @ NorthStars Hockey Club 6–3
24% 64%
2.04
Nov 15 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 5–1
47% 32%
1.09
Nov 16 Providence Capitals (North) - Batista @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 2–6
34% 46%
1.13
Nov 16 Seacoast Spartans @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 3–3
62% 23%
2.75 UPSET
Nov 16 South Shore Kings @ NorthStars Hockey Club 3–5
80% 12%
3.09 UPSET
Nov 22 NorthStars Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 0–5
24% 60%
0.73
Nov 22 Seacoast Spartans @ Top Gun 2–1
78% 11%
0.36
Nov 22 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ South Shore Kings 3–8
24% 63%
0.67
Nov 22 Boston Jr Eagles @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum 7–4
45% 40%
1.16
Nov 23 Boston Jr Eagles @ Providence Capitals (North) - Batista 5–7
44% 41%
1.28
Nov 23 Minuteman Flames - Hogan @ South Shore Kings 2–2 50/50 —
Nov 23 Top Gun @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 2–5
21% 67%
0.58
Nov 23 Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum @ NorthStars Hockey Club 1–2
43% 42%
1.23
Nov 29 NorthStars Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Eagles 5–9
29% 59%
0.76
Nov 29 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 0–1
47% 34%
1.57
Nov 29 Providence Capitals (North) - Batista @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum 4–2
47% 37%
1.08
Nov 30 Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum @ Top Gun 2–2
48% 35%
2.57 UPSET
Nov 30 NorthStars Hockey Club @ Providence Capitals (North) - Batista 4–5
27% 61%
0.71
Nov 30 Boston Jr Eagles @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 4–4
37% 50%
2.92
Dec 03 NorthStars Hockey Club @ Minuteman Flames - Hogan 2–6
14% 75%
0.41
Dec 06 Providence Capitals (North) - Batista @ Minuteman Flames - Hogan 3–3
19% 68%
2.91 UPSET
Dec 06 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Seacoast Spartans 1–2
28% 49%
1.03
Dec 06 Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum @ NorthStars Hockey Club 3–6
42% 43%
1.22
Dec 06 South Shore Kings @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 4–1
61% 26%
0.72
Dec 07 Minuteman Flames - Hogan @ Boston Jr Eagles 3–3
58% 27%
2.78 UPSET
Dec 07 Providence Capitals (North) - Batista @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 3–0
29% 53%
1.80
Dec 07 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Top Gun 2–1
63% 24%
0.67
Dec 07 NorthStars Hockey Club @ South Shore Kings 3–4
10% 83%
0.26
Dec 13 Seacoast Spartans @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 2–2
60% 24%
2.65 UPSET
Dec 13 Top Gun @ South Shore Kings 4–3
8% 83%
3.56 UPSET
Dec 13 Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum @ Minuteman Flames - Hogan 2–3
17% 68%
0.55
Dec 13 NorthStars Hockey Club @ Providence Capitals (North) - Batista 5–5
26% 62%
3.08 UPSET
Dec 14 Minuteman Flames - Hogan @ Seacoast Spartans 3–5
32% 48%
1.07
Dec 14 Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum @ South Shore Kings 1–6
14% 74%
0.43
Dec 14 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ NorthStars Hockey Club 5–8
54% 32%
1.62
Dec 14 Boston Jr Eagles @ Top Gun 7–7
60% 27%
2.88 UPSET
Dec 17 NorthStars Hockey Club @ Minuteman Flames - Hogan 1–7
20% 68%
0.57
Dec 20 Providence Capitals (North) - Batista @ Top Gun 3–2
58% 28%
0.80
Dec 20 Boston Jr Eagles @ Minuteman Flames - Hogan 3–2
23% 64%
2.14
Dec 20 Seacoast Spartans @ South Shore Kings 5–2
41% 41%
1.29
Dec 20 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ NorthStars Hockey Club 4–6
55% 28%
1.81
Dec 20 Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 3–6
27% 58%
0.80
Dec 21 NorthStars Hockey Club @ Seacoast Spartans 0–6
12% 79%
0.34
Dec 21 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Boston Jr Eagles 3–3
40% 47%
2.88
Dec 21 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ South Shore Kings 3–1
26% 55%
1.92
Dec 21 Top Gun @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum 1–4
38% 45%
1.15
Dec 21 Minuteman Flames - Hogan @ Providence Capitals (North) - Batista 7–3
54% 30%
0.89
Dec 27 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Top Gun 2–2
59% 26%
2.79 UPSET
Dec 27 Minuteman Flames - Hogan @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum 2–1
68% 18%
0.57
Dec 27 Seacoast Spartans @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 5–2
53% 25%
0.92
Dec 28 Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 1–6
27% 58%
0.78
Dec 28 Seacoast Spartans @ Providence Capitals (North) - Batista 3–1
70% 17%
0.52
Dec 28 Top Gun @ Minuteman Flames - Hogan 0–5
13% 75%
0.42
Dec 28 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ NorthStars Hockey Club 4–6
56% 31%
1.68
Jan 03 Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum @ Seacoast Spartans 2–2
9% 80%
3.21 UPSET
Jan 03 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Eagles 3–4
20% 68%
0.55
Jan 03 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Minuteman Flames - Hogan 2–7
25% 54%
0.89
Jan 03 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ South Shore Kings 1–4
23% 64%
0.66
Jan 03 Providence Capitals (North) - Batista @ NorthStars Hockey Club 1–5
50% 37%
1.42
Jan 04 Minuteman Flames - Hogan @ South Shore Kings 2–8
44% 39%
1.36
Jan 04 Boston Jr Eagles @ Providence Capitals (North) - Batista 3–3
46% 40%
2.88
Jan 04 Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 0–2
26% 55%
0.86
Jan 04 Top Gun @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 3–5
22% 64%
0.64
Jan 10 Providence Capitals (North) - Batista @ South Shore Kings 0–9
17% 72%
0.48
Jan 10 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 0–6
36% 45%
1.16
Jan 10 NorthStars Hockey Club @ Top Gun 7–4
54% 33%
0.90
Jan 10 Seacoast Spartans @ Minuteman Flames - Hogan 5–1
47% 34%
1.08
Jan 11 Seacoast Spartans @ Boston Jr Eagles 4–2
69% 18%
0.53
Jan 11 Minuteman Flames - Hogan @ Top Gun 6–3
73% 15%
0.45
Jan 11 NorthStars Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 2–2
26% 58%
2.72 UPSET
Jan 11 South Shore Kings @ Top Gun 6–0
82% 9%
0.28
Jan 11 Providence Capitals (North) - Batista @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 4–6
34% 51%
0.97
Jan 24 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Providence Capitals (North) - Batista 2–0
51% 31%
0.97
Jan 24 Boston Jr Eagles @ NorthStars Hockey Club 7–3
50% 37%
0.99
Jan 24 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Providence Capitals (North) - Batista 1–4
52% 30%
1.75
Jan 24 Seacoast Spartans @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum 2–3
77% 11%
3.18 UPSET
Jan 25 NorthStars Hockey Club @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 2–4
33% 54%
0.87
Jan 25 Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum @ Boston Jr Eagles 6–2
24% 62%
2.03
Jan 25 Minuteman Flames - Hogan @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 3–1
47% 33%
1.09
Jan 31 Providence Capitals (North) - Batista @ Boston Jr Eagles 2–8
32% 54%
0.88
Jan 31 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Top Gun 2–2
59% 22%
2.45
Jan 31 Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum @ South Shore Kings 3–4
11% 79%
0.35
Jan 31 Seacoast Spartans @ Top Gun 4–1
81% 9%
0.30
Feb 01 Boston Jr Eagles @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 0–3
38% 44%
1.17
Feb 01 South Shore Kings @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 2–4
68% 20%
2.32
Feb 01 Minuteman Flames - Hogan @ Seacoast Spartans 1–1
28% 55%
2.50 UPSET
Feb 01 Providence Capitals (North) - Batista @ Top Gun 4–3
54% 31%
0.90
Feb 07 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Minuteman Flames - Hogan 2–4
27% 52%
0.94
Feb 07 Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum @ Top Gun 2–2
50% 33%
2.51 UPSET
Feb 07 Seacoast Spartans @ NorthStars Hockey Club 8–4
77% 12%
0.37
Feb 07 Providence Capitals (North) - Batista @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 1–4
30% 56%
0.85
Feb 07 Boston Jr Eagles @ South Shore Kings 2–6
18% 71%
0.49
Feb 08 Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 1–7
26% 52%
0.93
Feb 08 NorthStars Hockey Club @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 8–3
29% 59%
1.80
Feb 08 Top Gun @ South Shore Kings 1–6
7% 86%
0.22
Feb 08 Providence Capitals (North) - Batista @ Seacoast Spartans 1–8
10% 79%
0.34
Feb 08 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum 2–1
53% 26%
0.91
Feb 08 Minuteman Flames - Hogan @ Boston Jr Eagles 0–4
60% 26%
1.93
Feb 11 Minuteman Flames - Hogan @ Top Gun 0–3
75% 13%
2.92 UPSET
Feb 14 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 5–4
18% 64%
2.48
Feb 14 South Shore Kings @ Seacoast Spartans 1–3
32% 50%
1.01
Feb 15 Top Gun @ Seacoast Spartans 1–3
6% 85%
0.23
Feb 15 South Shore Kings @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum 4–1
75% 14%
0.41
Feb 21 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Boston Jr Eagles 2–2
42% 40%
2.46
Feb 21 Top Gun @ Minuteman Flames - Hogan 2–6
14% 74%
0.44
Feb 21 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum 2–1
52% 32%
0.95
Feb 21 Providence Capitals (North) - Batista @ Seacoast Spartans 3–6
8% 82%
0.28
Feb 21 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Boston Jr Eagles 3–6
42% 40%
1.32
Feb 21 NorthStars Hockey Club @ South Shore Kings 1–6
11% 81%
0.30
Feb 21 Seacoast Spartans @ Providence Capitals (North) - Batista 5–3
79% 11%
0.34
Feb 22 Boston Jr Eagles @ Top Gun 7–3
65% 22%
0.62
Feb 22 Minuteman Flames - Hogan @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 5–0
54% 30%
0.90
Feb 22 Seacoast Spartans @ NorthStars Hockey Club 4–0
79% 11%
0.33
Feb 22 South Shore Kings @ Providence Capitals (North) - Batista 4–2
78% 13%
0.36