How Safe Is a Lead?
Period-by-period, how often does the team in front go on to win? And how often do games end in a tie?
Lead safety
Leading after 1st period
79.8%
win rate · a leader emerges in 75% of games
Leading after 2nd period
88.6%
win rate · a leader emerges in 86% of games
Across 7934 finished regular-season games league-wide.
Tie watch
Draws are the forecast's hardest call. The model slightly under-calls them, and it's honest about that.
Predicted draws
11.5%
Observed draws
10.4%
High-draw callout at
17.7%+