Fortune Index
Actual standings points minus the points the model expected before each game. Positive means banking more than the pre-game odds implied — the answer to "why is that team ahead of us?" 2018 Upper Gold.
How fortune is calculated
Before every game with enough history behind both teams, the model has a win / draw / loss probability. The EHF awards points the way most hockey leagues do — 2 for a win, 1 for a draw, 0 for a loss — so multiplying those probabilities by their point values gives the expected points for that one game: what the model thought your team would earn, on average, if this exact matchup were played out many times.
Worked example. Say the model gives your team a 55% chance to win, 15% to draw, 30% to lose:
- Team wins → banks 2 actual points, 0.75 more than expected. That game's fortune: +0.75.
- Team draws → banks 1, 0.25 less than expected. Fortune: −0.25.
- Team loses → banks 0, 1.25 less than expected. Fortune: −1.25.
Add up actual points and expected points separately across every game like this in a season, and the gap between the two running totals is the Fortune Index. A team at +6 has banked six more standings points than its pre-game odds implied over the season; a team at −6 has banked six fewer.
Fortune isn't a measure of how good a team is — it's a measure of how the bounces have landed relative to what the model already expected. A team can be genuinely excellent and unlucky at the same time: still the best team in the division, just sitting below where its own underlying strength says it should be. Over a full season, fortune tends to regress toward zero as early bounces even out with later ones. Games before a team has 3 prior results are excluded entirely — for every team equally — so a thin early-season sample doesn't quietly become fortune's biggest driver.
This division
| Team | GP | Pts | xPts | Fortune |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Jr. Dogs White Tier 1- 2018 Glennon | 6 | 5 | 3.0 | +2.0 |
| BOSTON VIPERS 2018 - TIER 1 | 5 | 10 | 8.7 | +1.3 |
| Seacoast Dobler | 4 | 4 | 2.8 | +1.2 |
| Boston Jr. Dogs - 2018 TI Black | 9 | 14 | 13.2 | +0.8 |
| Young Guns - Affronti | 5 | 1 | 0.3 | +0.7 |
| Team Boch - 2018 - Baldelli | 4 | 4 | 3.7 | +0.3 |
| Bay State Waves 2018 Upper Gold | 4 | 4 | 4.0 | -0.0 |
| Northeast Generals 2018 | 4 | 2 | 2.2 | -0.2 |
| MC Selects 2018 | 2 | 0 | 0.9 | -0.9 |
| South Shore Knights 2018 Neville | 7 | 6 | 11.1 | -5.1 |
League extremes
The most and least fortunate teams across every division.
| Team | GP | Fortune |
|---|---|---|
| Minuteman Flames - Welsh | 64 | +21.8 |
| Shamrocks - Hamilton | 64 | +16.6 |
| Spartans - Voulgaris | 66 | +13.2 |
| Spartans - Dovich | 66 | +13.2 |
| Manchester Flames - Legro | 64 | +12.5 |
| Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum | 29 | -11.8 |
| NorthStars - Fournier | 68 | -13.9 |
| CT Junior Rangers | 28 | -14.1 |
| IHC West - Proulx | 68 | -14.2 |
| Northern Cyclones - Philipp | 46 | -18.7 |