Power Rankings & Uncertainty
How sure is the model? Each team's power rating with a 90% confidence band and the probability it is truly the best team — honesty about a short season. 2017 Elite.
Power ratings with 90% bands
Two teams whose bands overlap are statistically tied. "P(best)" is the share of 200 bootstrap re-fits in which the team tops the division.
| # | Team | Power | 90% band | P(best) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IHC 2017 Elite | +1.30 | [+1.09, +1.54] | 71% |
| 2 | Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers 2017 Elite | +1.15 | [+0.85, +1.47] | 29% |
| 3 | Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Squirt Minor 2017 | +0.34 | [+0.03, +0.63] | 0% |
| 4 | Bay State Breakers 2017 Elite | +0.27 | [+0.01, +0.46] | 0% |
| 5 | Top Gun 2017 Elite | -0.12 | [-0.44, +0.11] | 0% |
| 6 | Boston Jr. Eagles 2017 Elite Collins | -0.26 | [-0.54, +0.01] | 0% |
| 7 | Providence Capitals 2017 Elite - Larsen | -0.52 | [-0.90, -0.10] | 0% |
| 8 | MassConn United Hockey Club 2017 Elite | -1.29 | [-1.65, -0.55] | 0% |
| 9 | South Shore Kings 2017 Elite MacDonald | -1.33 | [-1.63, -1.00] | 0% |
Last refreshed 2026-10-18.
Form — who's trending
Recent power (45-day recency-weighted re-fit) minus season-long power. A model-consistent alternative to ad-hoc last-5 records.
Boston Jr. Eagles 2017 Elite Collins
+0.07
South Shore Kings 2017 Elite MacDonald
+0.04
MassConn United Hockey Club 2017 Elite
+0.03
Providence Capitals 2017 Elite - Larsen
+0.03
Top Gun 2017 Elite
+0.03
Bay State Breakers 2017 Elite
+0.01
Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Squirt Minor 2017
-0.01
IHC 2017 Elite
-0.04
Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers 2017 Elite
-0.09
Bootstrap re-fits use the shrunk (ridge) Dixon-Coles model. See
how we score.