The Sheet

What is Surprisal? Surprisal measures how surprising a result was, based on pre-game probabilities. 0 bits = perfectly predicted. 3+ bits = major upset. A result is flagged as an UPSET when surprisal exceeds 2.5 bits.

Standings

# Team GP W L T GF GA PTS Champ %
1 Top Gun 34 28 4 2 168 45 58 0%
2 Boston Jr Eagles 36 23 11 2 130 79 48 13%
3 Cyclones Academy 34 18 9 7 113 77 43 0%
4 Seacoast Spartans 35 17 12 6 100 101 40 0%
5 Islanders Hockey Club (East) 35 17 12 6 106 80 40 0%
6 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 35 16 13 6 100 82 38 87%
7 Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall 36 11 18 7 100 122 29 0%
8 Minuteman Flames 36 10 21 5 85 132 25 0%
9 Islanders Hockey Club (West) 36 9 24 3 78 132 21 —
10 South Shore Kings 33 3 28 2 45 175 8 —

Projected Finish

How the rest of the season could play out — remaining games are simulated with home ice and rating uncertainty, then finishing positions are tallied. Ranges show the likely spread, not a single guaranteed rank. An analytical model for discussion, not advice.

# Team Proj. Finish Win Division Proj. Points
1 Top Gun 1 100% 60 (58–60)
2 Boston Jr Eagles 2 <1% 48 (48–48)
3 Cyclones Academy 3 <1% 45 (45–47)
4 Seacoast Spartans 4 <1% 42 (41–42)
5 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 5 (5–6) <1% 40 (39–40)
6 Islanders Hockey Club (East) 6 (5–6) <1% 40 (40–40)
7 Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall 7 <1% 29 (29–29)
8 Minuteman Flames 8 <1% 25 (25–25)
9 Islanders Hockey Club (West) 9 <1% 21 (21–21)
10 South Shore Kings 10 <1% 8 (8–10)

Game Log

Oldest first
Date Matchup Score Pre-game Probability Surprisal Flag
Aug 01 South Shore Kings @ Seacoast Spartans Upcoming 50/50 —
Aug 01 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) Upcoming 50/50 —
Aug 01 South Shore Kings @ Cyclones Academy Upcoming 50/50 —
Aug 01 Cyclones Academy @ Top Gun Upcoming 50/50 —
Aug 30 Boston Jr Eagles @ Islanders Hockey Club (West) 6–2 50/50 —
Sep 06 Cyclones Academy @ Boston Jr Eagles 5–1 50/50 —
Sep 07 Minuteman Flames @ Seacoast Spartans 2–2 50/50 —
Sep 13 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Eagles 2–0 50/50 —
Sep 13 Minuteman Flames @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 4–3 50/50 —
Sep 13 Islanders Hockey Club (West) @ South Shore Kings 3–0 50/50 —
Sep 13 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall 5–2 50/50 —
Sep 13 Cyclones Academy @ Seacoast Spartans 5–3 50/50 —
Sep 13 Islanders Hockey Club (West) @ South Shore Kings 5–2 50/50 —
Sep 14 South Shore Kings @ Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall 2–6 50/50 —
Sep 14 Islanders Hockey Club (West) @ Minuteman Flames 1–5 50/50 —
Sep 14 Seacoast Spartans @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 2–2 50/50 —
Sep 14 Boston Jr Eagles @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 2–3 50/50 —
Sep 20 Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall @ Cyclones Academy 2–2 50/50 —
Sep 20 Top Gun @ Seacoast Spartans 4–0 50/50 —
Sep 20 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ South Shore Kings 5–2 50/50 —
Sep 21 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Top Gun 2–1 50/50 —
Sep 21 Minuteman Flames @ South Shore Kings 4–3
81% 9%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
0.30
Sep 21 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Cyclones Academy 0–2
34% 49%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
1.02
Sep 21 Boston Jr Eagles @ Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall 6–4
34% 49%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
1.56
Sep 27 Seacoast Spartans @ Boston Jr Eagles 0–4
29% 55%
0.86
Sep 27 Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall @ South Shore Kings 2–2
69% 18%
3.03 UPSET
Sep 27 Islanders Hockey Club (West) @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 1–3
25% 59%
0.76
Sep 27 Top Gun @ Cyclones Academy 1–1
35% 44%
2.25
Sep 28 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Seacoast Spartans 3–5
60% 21%
2.22
Sep 28 Minuteman Flames @ Cyclones Academy 2–2
28% 53%
2.40
Sep 28 South Shore Kings @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 3–3
11% 78%
3.15 UPSET
Oct 04 Minuteman Flames @ South Shore Kings 2–4
74% 14%
2.85 UPSET
Oct 04 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Boston Jr Eagles 0–1
35% 48%
1.07
Oct 04 Cyclones Academy @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 1–4
52% 31%
1.68
Oct 04 Islanders Hockey Club (West) @ Seacoast Spartans 2–3
39% 44%
1.18
Oct 04 Top Gun @ Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall 2–1
58% 26%
0.78
Oct 05 Islanders Hockey Club (West) @ Top Gun 1–3
18% 66%
0.59
Oct 05 Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall @ Cyclones Academy 0–5
25% 60%
0.73
Oct 11 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Islanders Hockey Club (West) 1–4
61% 24%
2.07
Oct 11 Seacoast Spartans @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 1–1
30% 53%
2.60 UPSET
Oct 12 Cyclones Academy @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 3–4
52% 28%
1.84
Oct 12 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 5–2
51% 29%
0.98
Oct 18 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall 2–5
53% 30%
1.74
Oct 18 Boston Jr Eagles @ Minuteman Flames 3–1
43% 40%
1.21
Oct 18 South Shore Kings @ Islanders Hockey Club (West) 3–2
26% 58%
1.92
Oct 18 Top Gun @ Seacoast Spartans 6–4
65% 18%
0.62
Oct 19 South Shore Kings @ Minuteman Flames 4–0
22% 64%
2.21
Oct 19 Seacoast Spartans @ Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall 1–3
34% 50%
0.99
Oct 19 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Boston Jr Eagles 4–6
28% 54%
0.88
Oct 25 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ South Shore Kings 7–2
49% 34%
1.02
Oct 25 Cyclones Academy @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 1–3
53% 30%
1.72
Oct 25 Minuteman Flames @ Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall 2–4
35% 49%
1.04
Oct 26 Islanders Hockey Club (West) @ Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall 4–2
31% 53%
1.71
Oct 26 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 0–5
20% 66%
0.60
Oct 26 Cyclones Academy @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 3–3
49% 33%
2.52 UPSET
Nov 01 Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall @ Boston Jr Eagles 2–3
25% 60%
0.73
Nov 01 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 2–2
33% 50%
2.60 UPSET
Nov 01 Seacoast Spartans @ South Shore Kings 3–1
50% 33%
0.99
Nov 01 Top Gun @ Islanders Hockey Club (West) 2–1
66% 19%
0.59
Nov 01 Cyclones Academy @ Minuteman Flames 3–2
60% 24%
0.75
Nov 02 Top Gun @ Minuteman Flames 6–2
69% 17%
0.54
Nov 02 Seacoast Spartans @ Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall 1–2
34% 49%
1.03
Nov 02 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 6–1
44% 39%
1.18
Nov 08 Islanders Hockey Club (West) @ Boston Jr Eagles 2–9
25% 60%
0.75
Nov 08 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Minuteman Flames 2–1
64% 22%
0.65
Nov 09 Minuteman Flames @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 0–4
28% 56%
0.84
Nov 09 Boston Jr Eagles @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 2–0
44% 39%
1.18
Nov 15 Islanders Hockey Club (West) @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 5–3
20% 65%
2.29
Nov 15 Boston Jr Eagles @ Cyclones Academy 4–6
46% 36%
1.48
Nov 15 Top Gun @ Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall 4–4
65% 20%
2.73 UPSET
Nov 15 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Seacoast Spartans 0–3
49% 33%
1.58
Nov 16 Top Gun @ Minuteman Flames 9–0
75% 13%
0.42
Nov 16 Boston Jr Eagles @ Seacoast Spartans 6–1
61% 24%
0.72
Nov 16 Cyclones Academy @ South Shore Kings 5–3
76% 12%
0.39
Nov 16 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall 4–0
38% 45%
1.40
Nov 22 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall 3–3
50% 32%
2.54 UPSET
Nov 23 Boston Jr Eagles @ Islanders Hockey Club (West) 6–1
68% 19%
0.55
Nov 23 Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 3–2
34% 49%
1.58
Nov 23 Seacoast Spartans @ Top Gun 1–7
11% 77%
0.37
Nov 29 Islanders Hockey Club (West) @ Cyclones Academy 0–2
19% 67%
0.57
Nov 29 Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 2–6
16% 70%
0.50
Nov 29 Islanders Hockey Club (West) @ Cyclones Academy 1–5
18% 67%
0.57
Nov 30 Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall @ Minuteman Flames 5–1
60% 24%
0.74
Nov 30 Boston Jr Eagles @ Cyclones Academy 5–4
45% 38%
1.14
Nov 30 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Islanders Hockey Club (West) 2–3
60% 24%
2.03
Dec 06 Boston Jr Eagles @ Minuteman Flames 1–1
85% 7%
3.72 UPSET
Dec 06 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ South Shore Kings 6–2
72% 16%
0.48
Dec 07 Minuteman Flames @ Top Gun 4–3
4% 89%
4.58 UPSET
Dec 07 Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall @ Seacoast Spartans 2–6
50% 32%
1.64
Dec 13 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Islanders Hockey Club (West) 1–3
50% 31%
1.68
Dec 13 Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall @ Boston Jr Eagles 0–4
17% 70%
0.51
Dec 13 Top Gun @ South Shore Kings 5–0
88% 5%
0.18
Dec 14 Boston Jr Eagles @ South Shore Kings 11–1
87% 6%
0.20
Dec 14 Islanders Hockey Club (West) @ Top Gun 1–7
9% 80%
0.33
Dec 20 Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Eagles 1–2
6% 87%
0.21
Dec 20 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Top Gun 2–3
17% 68%
0.56
Dec 20 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ South Shore Kings 8–2
70% 16%
0.52
Dec 20 Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall @ Seacoast Spartans 5–5
41% 40%
2.43
Dec 20 Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Eagles 4–1
7% 85%
3.87 UPSET
Dec 21 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Eagles 1–6
3% 93%
0.10
Dec 21 Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall @ Top Gun 1–6
10% 79%
0.34
Dec 21 Seacoast Spartans @ Cyclones Academy 1–4
19% 66%
0.61
Dec 21 Boston Jr Eagles @ South Shore Kings 5–0
91% 4%
0.13
Dec 21 Minuteman Flames @ Islanders Hockey Club (West) 1–1
35% 46%
2.39
Dec 21 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 3–3
45% 36%
2.38
Dec 27 Boston Jr Eagles @ Seacoast Spartans 0–6
71% 15%
2.70 UPSET
Dec 27 Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall @ Islanders Hockey Club (West) 6–3
46% 36%
1.11
Dec 27 South Shore Kings @ Cyclones Academy 0–9
4% 89%
0.16
Dec 28 Seacoast Spartans @ Islanders Hockey Club (West) 4–1
51% 31%
0.98
Dec 28 Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall @ South Shore Kings 6–0
76% 13%
0.39
Dec 28 Cyclones Academy @ Top Gun 4–3
24% 58%
2.04
Dec 28 Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 4–2
18% 66%
2.48
Jan 03 South Shore Kings @ Islanders Hockey Club (West) 0–4
17% 69%
0.54
Jan 03 Seacoast Spartans @ Minuteman Flames 4–4
52% 30%
2.41
Jan 03 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Boston Jr Eagles 1–1
25% 58%
2.59 UPSET
Jan 03 Cyclones Academy @ Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall 5–5
63% 22%
2.71 UPSET
Jan 03 Cyclones Academy @ Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall 3–1
61% 24%
0.70
Jan 03 Top Gun @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 4–0
70% 16%
0.52
Jan 04 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Cyclones Academy 3–1
21% 63%
2.28
Jan 04 South Shore Kings @ Minuteman Flames 1–7
15% 72%
0.48
Jan 04 Islanders Hockey Club (West) @ Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall 3–3
26% 58%
2.61 UPSET
Jan 04 Boston Jr Eagles @ Top Gun 2–1
24% 59%
2.04
Jan 04 Seacoast Spartans @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 2–1
31% 50%
1.67
Jan 10 Seacoast Spartans @ Boston Jr Eagles 4–3
20% 65%
2.35
Jan 10 Cyclones Academy @ Minuteman Flames 6–2
68% 17%
0.55
Jan 10 Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 1–5
31% 51%
0.96
Jan 10 South Shore Kings @ Top Gun 1–8
1% 97%
0.04
Jan 10 South Shore Kings @ Top Gun 0–9
1% 98%
0.03
Jan 11 South Shore Kings @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 0–4
6% 86%
0.21
Jan 11 Islanders Hockey Club (West) @ Minuteman Flames 3–4
36% 45%
1.15
Jan 11 Minuteman Flames @ Cyclones Academy 3–6
13% 74%
0.43
Jan 11 Seacoast Spartans @ Top Gun 2–11
11% 77%
0.38
Jan 17 Islanders Hockey Club (West) @ Seacoast Spartans 2–3
26% 57%
0.80
Jan 24 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Eagles 1–6
2% 95%
0.07
Jan 24 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Seacoast Spartans 3–1
47% 34%
1.08
Jan 24 Top Gun @ Cyclones Academy 5–2
59% 25%
0.77
Jan 24 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Islanders Hockey Club (West) 7–3
55% 27%
0.87
Jan 25 Seacoast Spartans @ Cyclones Academy 4–2
20% 66%
2.34
Jan 25 Boston Jr Eagles @ Top Gun 1–2
21% 63%
0.67
Jan 31 South Shore Kings @ Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall 1–6
7% 86%
0.23
Jan 31 Minuteman Flames @ Top Gun 2–9
5% 88%
0.18
Jan 31 Islanders Hockey Club (West) @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 3–3
21% 63%
2.62 UPSET
Jan 31 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Boston Jr Eagles 2–5
27% 54%
0.89
Jan 31 Islanders Hockey Club (West) @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 1–6
22% 62%
0.70
Feb 01 Islanders Hockey Club (West) @ Boston Jr Eagles 2–6
10% 80%
0.33
Feb 01 Seacoast Spartans @ South Shore Kings 5–2
84% 8%
0.25
Feb 01 Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall @ Minuteman Flames 2–5
50% 33%
1.61
Feb 01 Boston Jr Eagles @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 2–4
55% 27%
1.88
Feb 01 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 2–1
70% 15%
0.50
Feb 03 Cyclones Academy @ Islanders Hockey Club (West) 5–2
74% 14%
0.44
Feb 07 Seacoast Spartans @ Minuteman Flames 5–2
50% 32%
0.98
Feb 07 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Cyclones Academy 1–1
29% 52%
2.45
Feb 07 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Minuteman Flames 3–1
58% 25%
0.78
Feb 07 Top Gun @ South Shore Kings 10–0
98% 0%
0.03
Feb 07 Boston Jr Eagles @ Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall 4–1
65% 20%
0.63
Feb 07 Seacoast Spartans @ Islanders Hockey Club (West) 4–2
58% 26%
0.78
Feb 08 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Eagles 5–1
60% 23%
0.74
Feb 08 Cyclones Academy @ South Shore Kings 3–1
94% 2%
0.09
Feb 08 Seacoast Spartans @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 1–4
33% 49%
1.02
Feb 08 Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 2–3
26% 56%
0.84
Feb 13 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Seacoast Spartans 1–2
47% 35%
1.51
Feb 14 Minuteman Flames @ Islanders Hockey Club (West) 1–3
44% 39%
1.37
Feb 14 Cyclones Academy @ Seacoast Spartans 2–2
56% 28%
2.58 UPSET
Feb 14 Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall @ Top Gun 0–6
5% 88%
0.19
Feb 14 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 1–2
37% 42%
1.23
Feb 15 Cyclones Academy @ Islanders Hockey Club (West) 3–0
72% 15%
0.47
Feb 15 Minuteman Flames @ Seacoast Spartans 1–4
24% 60%
0.75
Feb 15 Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 0–5
26% 57%
0.81
Feb 15 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Top Gun 0–7
11% 76%
0.40
Feb 21 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Minuteman Flames 7–0
59% 23%
0.76
Feb 21 Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall @ Islanders Hockey Club (West) 5–1
50% 33%
1.00
Feb 21 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Minuteman Flames 4–2
64% 20%
0.63
Feb 21 Cyclones Academy @ Boston Jr Eagles 1–2
35% 46%
1.10
Feb 21 Top Gun @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 4–0
74% 13%
0.43
Feb 22 Boston Jr Eagles @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 3–4
49% 32%
1.67
Feb 22 Top Gun @ Islanders Hockey Club (West) 6–2
93% 3%
0.11
Feb 22 Minuteman Flames @ Providence Capitals (North) - Nuttall 6–4
28% 56%
1.86
Feb 22 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Cyclones Academy 4–1
30% 50%
1.72
Feb 22 South Shore Kings @ Seacoast Spartans 1–5
5% 88%
0.18