The Sheet

What is Surprisal? Surprisal measures how surprising a result was, based on pre-game probabilities. 0 bits = perfectly predicted. 3+ bits = major upset. A result is flagged as an UPSET when surprisal exceeds 2.5 bits.

Standings

# Team GP W L T GF GA PTS Champ %
1 Islanders Hockey Club 34 33 0 1 230 36 67 89%
2 Boston Jr Eagles 37 25 7 5 174 89 55 3%
3 Top Gun 36 19 11 6 165 112 44 3%
4 South Shore Kings 36 19 12 5 159 109 43 4%
5 Boston Jr Terriers 37 11 19 7 96 174 29 0%
6 Providence Capitals - Rotz 35 10 20 5 83 134 25 0%
7 Mid Fairfield 12 9 1 2 71 23 20 —
8 Minuteman Flames 36 4 28 4 62 179 12 0%
9 Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite 37 2 34 1 66 250 5 0%

Projected Finish

How the rest of the season could play out — remaining games are simulated with home ice and rating uncertainty, then finishing positions are tallied. Ranges show the likely spread, not a single guaranteed rank. An analytical model for discussion, not advice.

# Team Proj. Finish Win Division Proj. Points
1 Islanders Hockey Club 1 100% 72 (70–73)
2 Boston Jr Eagles 2 <1% 57 (56–57)
3 South Shore Kings 3 (3–4) <1% 45 (45–45)
4 Top Gun 4 (3–4) <1% 44 (44–45)
5 Boston Jr Terriers 5 <1% 29 (29–30)
6 Providence Capitals - Rotz 6 (6–7) <1% 25 (25–26)
7 Mid Fairfield 7 (6–7) <1% 24 (23–26)
8 Minuteman Flames 8 <1% 12 (12–12)
9 Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite 9 <1% 5 (5–5)

Game Log

Oldest first
Date Matchup Score Pre-game Probability Surprisal Flag
Aug 01 Boston Jr Eagles @ Boston Jr Terriers Upcoming 50/50 —
Aug 01 Mid Fairfield @ Islanders Hockey Club Upcoming 50/50 —
Aug 01 Mid Fairfield @ Islanders Hockey Club Upcoming 50/50 —
Aug 01 Islanders Hockey Club @ Top Gun Upcoming 50/50 —
Aug 01 Mid Fairfield @ Providence Capitals - Rotz Upcoming 50/50 —
Aug 01 Mid Fairfield @ Providence Capitals - Rotz Upcoming 50/50 —
Aug 01 Minuteman Flames @ South Shore Kings Upcoming 50/50 —
Sep 06 Boston Jr Terriers @ Boston Jr Eagles 3–8 50/50 —
Sep 13 Boston Jr Eagles @ Providence Capitals - Rotz 5–2 50/50 —
Sep 13 Boston Jr Terriers @ Mid Fairfield 2–10 50/50 —
Sep 13 Top Gun @ South Shore Kings 4–4 50/50 —
Sep 13 Minuteman Flames @ Islanders Hockey Club 0–8 50/50 —
Sep 13 Boston Jr Terriers @ Mid Fairfield 1–7 50/50 —
Sep 13 Top Gun @ South Shore Kings 2–7 50/50 —
Sep 14 Islanders Hockey Club @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite 6–1 50/50 —
Sep 14 Top Gun @ Providence Capitals - Rotz 5–1 50/50 —
Sep 14 Boston Jr Terriers @ South Shore Kings 4–9 50/50 —
Sep 14 Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Eagles 2–4 50/50 —
Sep 20 Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite @ Boston Jr Terriers 3–8 50/50 —
Sep 20 Islanders Hockey Club @ South Shore Kings 5–1 50/50 —
Sep 20 Minuteman Flames @ Providence Capitals - Rotz 1–4 50/50 —
Sep 21 Boston Jr Eagles @ South Shore Kings 2–3
40% 45%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
1.14
Sep 21 Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Terriers 4–4
31% 56%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
2.94 UPSET
Sep 21 Providence Capitals - Rotz @ Islanders Hockey Club 1–7
5% 89%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
0.17
Sep 27 Boston Jr Terriers @ Islanders Hockey Club 1–11
1% 97%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
0.04
Sep 27 Top Gun @ Mid Fairfield 1–3 50/50 —
Sep 27 Providence Capitals - Rotz @ South Shore Kings 0–6
13% 78%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
0.37
Sep 27 Top Gun @ Mid Fairfield 5–2
18% 69%
2.49
Sep 27 Boston Jr Eagles @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite 11–2 50/50 —
Sep 28 Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite @ Boston Jr Terriers 4–6
28% 61%
0.71
Sep 28 Islanders Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Eagles 6–2
69% 19%
0.54
Sep 28 Minuteman Flames @ South Shore Kings 1–4
6% 87%
0.20
Sep 28 Top Gun @ Providence Capitals - Rotz 2–2
72% 16%
3.06 UPSET
Oct 04 Providence Capitals - Rotz @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite 4–2
58% 28%
0.79
Oct 05 Boston Jr Eagles @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite 12–3
92% 4%
0.12
Oct 11 Providence Capitals - Rotz @ Boston Jr Eagles 2–5
10% 81%
0.30
Oct 11 Minuteman Flames @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite 5–3
59% 27%
0.77
Oct 11 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Terriers 2–2
79% 13%
3.56 UPSET
Oct 12 Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Terriers 1–5
43% 42%
1.24
Oct 12 Providence Capitals - Rotz @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite 1–3
63% 23%
2.10
Oct 12 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Eagles 4–2
43% 43%
1.21
Oct 12 Top Gun @ Islanders Hockey Club 0–6
7% 85%
0.23
Oct 18 South Shore Kings @ Providence Capitals - Rotz 3–1
83% 8%
0.26
Oct 18 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Eagles 3–3
22% 65%
2.95 UPSET
Oct 18 Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite @ Minuteman Flames 3–3
28% 58%
2.79 UPSET
Oct 19 Top Gun @ Minuteman Flames 4–0
67% 18%
0.57
Oct 19 Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite @ Mid Fairfield 1–11
3% 94%
0.08
Oct 19 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Terriers 7–2
87% 7%
0.20
Oct 19 Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite @ Mid Fairfield 0–10
1% 98%
0.03
Oct 25 Minuteman Flames @ Islanders Hockey Club 0–3
1% 98%
0.03
Oct 26 Islanders Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Terriers 9–1
98% 1%
0.04
Nov 01 Boston Jr Eagles @ Islanders Hockey Club 0–3
8% 84%
0.25
Nov 01 South Shore Kings @ Top Gun 4–5
58% 26%
1.93
Nov 01 Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite @ Providence Capitals - Rotz 4–5
21% 66%
0.60
Nov 01 Boston Jr Terriers @ Minuteman Flames 3–1
50% 35%
1.01
Nov 02 Boston Jr Eagles @ Top Gun 9–3
48% 36%
1.06
Nov 02 Mid Fairfield @ Minuteman Flames 6–3
90% 4%
0.16
Nov 02 Islanders Hockey Club @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite 10–0
100% 0%
0.01
Nov 02 Mid Fairfield @ Minuteman Flames 8–0
89% 5%
0.16
Nov 08 Boston Jr Eagles @ Top Gun 5–4
58% 28%
0.79
Nov 08 Boston Jr Terriers @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite 6–1
69% 20%
0.53
Nov 08 Providence Capitals - Rotz @ South Shore Kings 2–4
6% 86%
0.22
Nov 09 South Shore Kings @ Mid Fairfield 3–3
29% 57%
2.79 UPSET
Nov 09 Providence Capitals - Rotz @ Boston Jr Eagles 3–6
7% 85%
0.23
Nov 09 South Shore Kings @ Mid Fairfield 3–4
30% 55%
0.87
Nov 09 Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite @ Boston Jr Terriers 2–6
13% 78%
0.36
Nov 15 South Shore Kings @ Islanders Hockey Club 3–7
11% 79%
0.34
Nov 15 Minuteman Flames @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite 1–4
52% 32%
1.65
Nov 15 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Terriers 8–1
67% 21%
0.57
Nov 16 Providence Capitals - Rotz @ Boston Jr Terriers 2–2
39% 45%
2.67
Nov 16 Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite @ South Shore Kings 1–8
1% 98%
0.03
Nov 16 Top Gun @ Minuteman Flames 6–1
81% 9%
0.30
Nov 22 Boston Jr Terriers @ South Shore Kings 5–3
5% 90%
4.34 UPSET
Nov 22 Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite @ Top Gun 1–5
3% 94%
0.09
Nov 22 Boston Jr Terriers @ South Shore Kings 3–3
8% 86%
3.96 UPSET
Nov 22 Minuteman Flames @ Islanders Hockey Club 0–10
0% 99%
0.02
Nov 22 Boston Jr Eagles @ Providence Capitals - Rotz 5–1
82% 9%
0.28
Nov 23 Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Eagles 0–4
2% 94%
0.08
Nov 23 Providence Capitals - Rotz @ Top Gun 3–3
13% 75%
3.08 UPSET
Nov 23 South Shore Kings @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite 7–2
95% 2%
0.07
Nov 30 Providence Capitals - Rotz @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite 4–2
64% 22%
0.64
Dec 06 South Shore Kings @ Minuteman Flames 2–2
89% 5%
4.01 UPSET
Dec 06 Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite @ Top Gun 2–12
3% 93%
0.10
Dec 06 Boston Jr Terriers @ Boston Jr Eagles 1–1
6% 88%
4.19 UPSET
Dec 06 Islanders Hockey Club @ Providence Capitals - Rotz 8–0
96% 1%
0.06
Dec 07 Boston Jr Eagles @ Islanders Hockey Club 3–3
7% 86%
3.72 UPSET
Dec 07 Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite @ South Shore Kings 0–8
1% 97%
0.05
Dec 07 Providence Capitals - Rotz @ Boston Jr Terriers 3–1
32% 52%
1.67
Dec 07 Islanders Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Eagles 7–4
79% 11%
0.34
Dec 13 Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite @ Boston Jr Eagles 1–7
1% 98%
0.02
Dec 13 Top Gun @ Minuteman Flames 8–2
84% 7%
0.25
Dec 13 Islanders Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Terriers 8–2
98% 1%
0.04
Dec 14 Providence Capitals - Rotz @ Minuteman Flames 2–3
54% 26%
1.96
Dec 14 Boston Jr Terriers @ Top Gun 1–7
12% 79%
0.34
Dec 14 Boston Jr Eagles @ South Shore Kings 7–1
44% 40%
1.18
Dec 14 Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite @ Islanders Hockey Club 0–10
0% 100%
0.00
Dec 20 Islanders Hockey Club @ Minuteman Flames 4–0
99% 0%
0.02
Dec 20 South Shore Kings @ Top Gun 6–5
40% 45%
1.33
Dec 20 Providence Capitals - Rotz @ Boston Jr Terriers 1–4
35% 48%
1.06
Dec 21 Boston Jr Terriers @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite 4–2
76% 14%
0.40
Dec 21 Islanders Hockey Club @ Providence Capitals - Rotz 4–2
96% 1%
0.05
Dec 21 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Eagles 2–5
28% 58%
0.78
Dec 21 South Shore Kings @ Minuteman Flames 4–0
86% 6%
0.21
Dec 21 Islanders Hockey Club @ Providence Capitals - Rotz 9–1
96% 1%
0.06
Dec 27 Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite @ South Shore Kings 2–9
1% 97%
0.05
Dec 27 Boston Jr Eagles @ Islanders Hockey Club 1–6
11% 80%
0.33
Dec 28 Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Terriers 2–2
20% 65%
2.72 UPSET
Dec 28 Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite @ Islanders Hockey Club 0–10
0% 100%
0.00
Dec 28 Boston Jr Eagles @ South Shore Kings 2–1
50% 35%
1.01
Jan 03 Boston Jr Eagles @ Minuteman Flames 6–3
91% 3%
0.13
Jan 03 Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite @ Providence Capitals - Rotz 2–4
17% 70%
0.51
Jan 03 Boston Jr Eagles @ Minuteman Flames 9–1
91% 4%
0.14
Jan 03 Boston Jr Terriers @ Islanders Hockey Club 0–10
0% 98%
0.02
Jan 04 Boston Jr Eagles @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite 6–1
98% 1%
0.03
Jan 04 Islanders Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Terriers 7–0
98% 1%
0.03
Jan 04 Minuteman Flames @ Providence Capitals - Rotz 4–5
24% 56%
0.84
Jan 10 Top Gun @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite 5–0
95% 2%
0.07
Jan 11 South Shore Kings @ Providence Capitals - Rotz 8–3
77% 12%
0.37
Jan 11 Top Gun @ Islanders Hockey Club 2–3
4% 90%
0.15
Jan 17 Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite @ Minuteman Flames 0–7
28% 55%
0.85
Jan 18 Minuteman Flames @ Top Gun 5–11
5% 88%
0.19
Jan 23 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Terriers 8–2
80% 11%
0.32
Jan 24 Boston Jr Terriers @ Minuteman Flames 5–1
53% 30%
0.91
Jan 24 Providence Capitals - Rotz @ Top Gun 1–5
9% 82%
0.28
Jan 24 Islanders Hockey Club @ South Shore Kings 5–1
84% 8%
0.26
Jan 25 Boston Jr Terriers @ Providence Capitals - Rotz 2–0
43% 40%
1.21
Jan 25 Islanders Hockey Club @ Top Gun 7–2
86% 6%
0.21
Jan 31 Boston Jr Terriers @ Providence Capitals - Rotz 2–5
45% 38%
1.41
Jan 31 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Eagles 4–5
30% 55%
0.86
Jan 31 Minuteman Flames @ Top Gun 0–4
5% 90%
0.16
Feb 01 Boston Jr Eagles @ Boston Jr Terriers 5–0
87% 6%
0.20
Feb 01 Top Gun @ South Shore Kings 6–4
37% 48%
1.44
Feb 01 Providence Capitals - Rotz @ Minuteman Flames 5–0
50% 31%
1.01
Feb 07 South Shore Kings @ Minuteman Flames 5–2
89% 5%
0.18
Feb 07 Mid Fairfield @ Boston Jr Eagles 3–3
46% 39%
2.68
Feb 07 Boston Jr Terriers @ Top Gun 3–7
8% 84%
0.25
Feb 07 Mid Fairfield @ Boston Jr Eagles 4–1
45% 39%
1.14
Feb 07 Boston Jr Terriers @ Top Gun 0–7
8% 85%
0.24
Feb 07 Providence Capitals - Rotz @ Islanders Hockey Club 2–8
1% 98%
0.03
Feb 08 Islanders Hockey Club @ Minuteman Flames 7–1
99% 0%
0.02
Feb 08 South Shore Kings @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite 8–3
96% 1%
0.05
Feb 08 Boston Jr Eagles @ Top Gun 5–1
50% 35%
0.99
Feb 14 Providence Capitals - Rotz @ Boston Jr Eagles 1–4
5% 88%
0.18
Feb 14 Minuteman Flames @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite 5–4
53% 30%
0.92
Feb 15 Islanders Hockey Club @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite 7–0
100% 0%
0.00
Feb 15 Providence Capitals - Rotz @ Top Gun 2–2
9% 82%
3.45 UPSET
Feb 15 Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Eagles 0–7
2% 94%
0.08
Feb 21 Islanders Hockey Club @ Top Gun 8–3
86% 6%
0.22
Feb 21 South Shore Kings @ Providence Capitals - Rotz 2–2
77% 12%
3.18 UPSET
Feb 21 Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite @ Boston Jr Eagles 3–5
0% 99%
0.02
Feb 22 South Shore Kings @ Islanders Hockey Club 0–4
5% 89%
0.17
Feb 22 Boston Jr Eagles @ Boston Jr Terriers 0–0
88% 6%
4.02 UPSET
Feb 22 South Shore Kings @ Islanders Hockey Club 2–4
5% 89%
0.17
Feb 22 Minuteman Flames @ Providence Capitals - Rotz 1–6
23% 59%
0.75
Feb 22 Top Gun @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite 7–2
96% 2%
0.06
Feb 22 Boston Jr Terriers @ Boston Jr Eagles 2–5
5% 89%
0.16
Feb 22 Top Gun @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite 7–2
96% 2%
0.06