The Sheet

What is Surprisal? Surprisal measures how surprising a result was, based on pre-game probabilities. 0 bits = perfectly predicted. 3+ bits = major upset. A result is flagged as an UPSET when surprisal exceeds 2.5 bits.

Standings

# Team GP W L T GF GA PTS Champ %
1 Top Gun 36 26 6 4 157 70 56 58%
2 Providence Capitals - Vanacore 37 24 7 6 182 105 54 21%
3 Boston Jr Eagles 34 20 8 6 129 81 46 13%
4 Islanders Hockey Club 37 16 17 4 149 142 36 8%
5 Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite 37 13 16 8 133 121 34 0%
6 Mid Fairfield 2015 14 12 1 1 76 29 25 —
7 South Shore Kings 37 9 22 6 111 168 24 0%
8 Boston Jr Terriers 35 7 26 2 84 165 16 0%
9 Minuteman Flames 35 4 28 3 74 214 11 0%

Projected Finish

How the rest of the season could play out — remaining games are simulated with home ice and rating uncertainty, then finishing positions are tallied. Ranges show the likely spread, not a single guaranteed rank. An analytical model for discussion, not advice.

# Team Proj. Finish Win Division Proj. Points
1 Top Gun 1 100% 58 (56–58)
2 Providence Capitals - Vanacore 2 <1% 54 (54–54)
3 Boston Jr Eagles 3 <1% 50 (49–52)
4 Islanders Hockey Club 4 <1% 36 (36–36)
5 Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite 5 <1% 34 (34–34)
6 Mid Fairfield 2015 6 <1% 29 (28–29)
7 South Shore Kings 7 <1% 24 (24–24)
8 Boston Jr Terriers 8 <1% 16 (16–17)
9 Minuteman Flames 9 <1% 11 (11–12)

Game Log

Oldest first
Date Matchup Score Pre-game Probability Surprisal Flag
Aug 01 Mid Fairfield 2015 @ Boston Jr Terriers Upcoming 50/50 —
Aug 01 Mid Fairfield 2015 @ Boston Jr Terriers Upcoming 50/50 —
Aug 01 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Eagles Upcoming 50/50 —
Aug 01 Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Eagles Upcoming 50/50 —
Aug 01 Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Eagles Upcoming 50/50 —
Sep 06 Boston Jr Eagles @ Top Gun 0–5 50/50 —
Sep 06 Islanders Hockey Club @ Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite 4–2 50/50 —
Sep 07 Top Gun @ Minuteman Flames 8–1 50/50 —
Sep 07 Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite @ Boston Jr Eagles 2–1 50/50 —
Sep 13 Minuteman Flames @ Providence Capitals - Vanacore 3–3 50/50 —
Sep 13 Boston Jr Eagles @ Islanders Hockey Club 3–5 50/50 —
Sep 13 Boston Jr Terriers @ Top Gun 2–3 50/50 —
Sep 14 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Terriers 3–4 50/50 —
Sep 14 Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite @ Mid Fairfield 2015 1–3 50/50 —
Sep 14 Boston Jr Eagles @ Minuteman Flames 4–3 50/50 —
Sep 14 Top Gun @ Providence Capitals - Vanacore 1–4 50/50 —
Sep 14 Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite @ Mid Fairfield 2015 4–6 50/50 —
Sep 20 Boston Jr Eagles @ Providence Capitals - Vanacore 5–5 50/50 —
Sep 20 Minuteman Flames @ South Shore Kings 0–4 50/50 —
Sep 21 South Shore Kings @ Providence Capitals - Vanacore 3–4 50/50 —
Sep 21 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Eagles 5–2
71% 16%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
0.49
Sep 27 Top Gun @ South Shore Kings 2–3
56% 28%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
1.86
Sep 27 Boston Jr Terriers @ Providence Capitals - Vanacore 2–7 50/50 —
Sep 27 Minuteman Flames @ Islanders Hockey Club 0–8 50/50 —
Sep 27 Boston Jr Eagles @ Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite 3–0
33% 51%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
1.61
Sep 28 Providence Capitals - Vanacore @ Islanders Hockey Club 5–3
30% 56%
1.75
Sep 28 South Shore Kings @ Mid Fairfield 2015 1–5 50/50 —
Sep 28 Boston Jr Terriers @ Boston Jr Eagles 1–3
42% 42%
1.25
Sep 28 South Shore Kings @ Mid Fairfield 2015 2–12
23% 63%
0.68
Oct 04 Islanders Hockey Club @ South Shore Kings 6–2
68% 20%
0.55
Oct 04 Providence Capitals - Vanacore @ Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite 6–2
59% 26%
0.77
Oct 05 Islanders Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Terriers 3–2
74% 15%
0.44
Oct 05 South Shore Kings @ Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite 2–6
37% 45%
1.15
Oct 11 South Shore Kings @ Top Gun 4–9
12% 78%
0.37
Oct 11 Islanders Hockey Club @ Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite 4–6
64% 22%
2.20
Oct 11 Providence Capitals - Vanacore @ Boston Jr Terriers 7–1
69% 18%
0.53
Oct 12 Top Gun @ Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite 1–4
59% 26%
1.92
Oct 12 South Shore Kings @ Islanders Hockey Club 1–2
11% 81%
0.31
Oct 12 Providence Capitals - Vanacore @ Boston Jr Eagles 3–4
66% 20%
2.28
Oct 18 Islanders Hockey Club @ Top Gun 1–3
39% 46%
1.14
Oct 18 Providence Capitals - Vanacore @ Mid Fairfield 2015 2–3
26% 61%
0.71
Oct 18 Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite @ Minuteman Flames 2–3
77% 12%
3.03 UPSET
Oct 18 Providence Capitals - Vanacore @ Mid Fairfield 2015 3–2
27% 59%
1.87
Oct 18 Islanders Hockey Club @ Top Gun 2–5
34% 50%
1.00
Oct 18 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Terriers 6–2
39% 45%
1.35
Oct 19 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Terriers 3–0
80% 10%
0.32
Oct 19 Minuteman Flames @ Providence Capitals - Vanacore 3–4
5% 89%
0.17
Oct 19 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Eagles 3–3
26% 60%
2.82 UPSET
Oct 25 Mid Fairfield 2015 @ Islanders Hockey Club 6–2
61% 25%
0.72
Oct 25 Minuteman Flames @ Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite 1–8
17% 70%
0.51
Oct 25 Mid Fairfield 2015 @ Islanders Hockey Club 6–4
68% 19%
0.55
Oct 26 Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite @ Islanders Hockey Club 4–4
39% 45%
2.67
Nov 01 Islanders Hockey Club @ Minuteman Flames 9–2
78% 12%
0.36
Nov 01 Islanders Hockey Club @ Minuteman Flames 8–4
84% 8%
0.25
Nov 01 Boston Jr Eagles @ Top Gun 2–2
20% 66%
2.81 UPSET
Nov 01 Boston Jr Terriers @ South Shore Kings 2–5
27% 58%
0.79
Nov 02 Islanders Hockey Club @ Providence Capitals - Vanacore 1–8
31% 55%
0.85
Nov 02 Top Gun @ Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite 3–4
52% 32%
1.67
Nov 02 South Shore Kings @ Minuteman Flames 2–1
64% 23%
0.65
Nov 08 Boston Jr Eagles @ Providence Capitals - Vanacore 0–6
18% 69%
0.54
Nov 08 Minuteman Flames @ Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite 0–9
8% 84%
0.26
Nov 08 Boston Jr Terriers @ South Shore Kings 3–2
25% 60%
1.97
Nov 08 Top Gun @ Islanders Hockey Club 3–2
52% 33%
0.96
Nov 09 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Eagles 2–5
30% 54%
0.88
Nov 09 Top Gun @ Mid Fairfield 2015 2–2
24% 62%
2.80 UPSET
Nov 09 Providence Capitals - Vanacore @ Minuteman Flames 7–4
94% 3%
0.09
Nov 09 Top Gun @ Mid Fairfield 2015 2–3
26% 59%
0.77
Nov 09 Islanders Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Terriers 10–5
73% 16%
0.45
Nov 15 Boston Jr Eagles @ South Shore Kings 4–2
53% 31%
0.91
Nov 15 Mid Fairfield 2015 @ Minuteman Flames 10–0
96% 2%
0.06
Nov 15 Providence Capitals - Vanacore @ Top Gun 1–2
44% 39%
1.34
Nov 15 Providence Capitals - Vanacore @ Top Gun 4–5
42% 41%
1.30
Nov 15 Mid Fairfield 2015 @ Minuteman Flames 9–0
97% 1%
0.04
Nov 16 Mid Fairfield 2015 @ Boston Jr Eagles 6–5
80% 10%
0.32
Nov 16 Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite @ South Shore Kings 2–2
69% 18%
2.98 UPSET
Nov 16 Providence Capitals - Vanacore @ Minuteman Flames 8–1
94% 2%
0.09
Nov 16 Mid Fairfield 2015 @ Boston Jr Eagles 3–1
78% 12%
0.35
Nov 22 Islanders Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Eagles 4–4
47% 38%
2.74
Nov 22 Providence Capitals - Vanacore @ South Shore Kings 6–6
80% 11%
3.43 UPSET
Nov 22 Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite @ Top Gun 0–3
29% 54%
0.89
Nov 22 Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Terriers 2–4
22% 64%
0.65
Nov 23 Boston Jr Terriers @ Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite 1–3
12% 78%
0.37
Nov 23 Minuteman Flames @ Top Gun 0–8
2% 94%
0.09
Nov 23 Providence Capitals - Vanacore @ Islanders Hockey Club 5–3
58% 29%
0.78
Nov 29 Boston Jr Terriers @ South Shore Kings 0–7
28% 57%
0.80
Nov 29 Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite @ Islanders Hockey Club 3–8
43% 42%
1.25
Nov 30 Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite @ Minuteman Flames 6–5
87% 6%
0.20
Nov 30 Islanders Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Terriers 5–4
80% 11%
0.32
Dec 06 Boston Jr Terriers @ Providence Capitals - Vanacore 2–7
5% 90%
0.15
Dec 06 South Shore Kings @ Minuteman Flames 6–6
75% 14%
3.22 UPSET
Dec 06 Boston Jr Eagles @ Islanders Hockey Club 8–0
32% 53%
1.62
Dec 06 Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite @ Top Gun 3–4
21% 64%
0.64
Dec 06 Providence Capitals - Vanacore @ Boston Jr Terriers 6–3
88% 6%
0.18
Dec 07 Top Gun @ Providence Capitals - Vanacore 4–2
42% 41%
1.26
Dec 07 South Shore Kings @ Islanders Hockey Club 1–5
24% 64%
0.64
Dec 07 Top Gun @ Providence Capitals - Vanacore 7–3
44% 39%
1.19
Dec 07 Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite @ Boston Jr Eagles 1–4
37% 46%
1.12
Dec 07 Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Terriers 4–2
27% 59%
1.91
Dec 13 Islanders Hockey Club @ South Shore Kings 3–4
61% 26%
1.93
Dec 13 Top Gun @ Minuteman Flames 7–2
94% 3%
0.10
Dec 13 Boston Jr Terriers @ Providence Capitals - Vanacore 4–10
5% 90%
0.15
Dec 14 Providence Capitals - Vanacore @ South Shore Kings 4–2
75% 15%
0.42
Dec 14 Boston Jr Terriers @ Top Gun 0–5
4% 91%
0.14
Dec 14 Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Eagles 1–4
6% 88%
0.18
Dec 20 Providence Capitals - Vanacore @ Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite 2–2
58% 28%
2.83 UPSET
Dec 20 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Eagles 2–5
21% 64%
0.63
Dec 20 Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Terriers 2–7
31% 54%
0.89
Dec 21 Minuteman Flames @ South Shore Kings 2–6
14% 76%
0.39
Dec 21 Boston Jr Eagles @ Providence Capitals - Vanacore 7–3
29% 57%
1.81
Dec 21 Boston Jr Terriers @ Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite 4–4
12% 77%
3.25 UPSET
Dec 27 Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite @ South Shore Kings 9–1
54% 30%
0.89
Dec 28 Boston Jr Terriers @ Minuteman Flames 3–5
56% 30%
1.74
Jan 03 Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite @ Providence Capitals - Vanacore 3–5
28% 58%
0.78
Jan 03 Islanders Hockey Club @ Top Gun 4–6
17% 71%
0.50
Jan 03 Top Gun @ Islanders Hockey Club 6–4
66% 21%
0.60
Jan 03 Boston Jr Eagles @ Boston Jr Terriers 4–1
79% 11%
0.35
Jan 04 Boston Jr Eagles @ Minuteman Flames 7–0
88% 6%
0.19
Jan 04 Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite @ Top Gun 2–2
20% 66%
2.81 UPSET
Jan 04 Providence Capitals - Vanacore @ Islanders Hockey Club 7–2
58% 30%
0.79
Jan 10 Boston Jr Eagles @ South Shore Kings 6–0
68% 19%
0.57
Jan 10 Top Gun @ Minuteman Flames 5–0
94% 2%
0.08
Jan 10 Islanders Hockey Club @ Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite 4–1
36% 50%
1.49
Jan 11 Providence Capitals - Vanacore @ Boston Jr Eagles 5–2
44% 41%
1.20
Jan 11 South Shore Kings @ Top Gun 1–8
8% 84%
0.25
Jan 11 Minuteman Flames @ Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite 2–8
6% 88%
0.18
Jan 11 Boston Jr Terriers @ Islanders Hockey Club 0–7
10% 82%
0.29
Jan 17 Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite @ Boston Jr Terriers 7–1
77% 12%
0.38
Jan 18 Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite @ Boston Jr Terriers 4–5
79% 11%
3.19 UPSET
Jan 24 Boston Jr Terriers @ Boston Jr Eagles 0–3
7% 85%
0.23
Jan 24 Boston Jr Eagles @ Boston Jr Terriers 4–4
82% 9%
3.45 UPSET
Jan 24 South Shore Kings @ Top Gun 1–1
7% 86%
3.78 UPSET
Jan 24 Providence Capitals - Vanacore @ Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite 2–2
56% 30%
2.78 UPSET
Jan 25 Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite @ South Shore Kings 7–7
64% 22%
2.82 UPSET
Jan 31 Islanders Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Eagles 0–5
31% 54%
0.89
Jan 31 Top Gun @ South Shore Kings 8–1
81% 9%
0.31
Jan 31 Minuteman Flames @ Providence Capitals - Vanacore 2–8
2% 96%
0.05
Feb 01 Boston Jr Eagles @ Top Gun 4–2
25% 57%
2.02
Feb 01 Boston Jr Terriers @ Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite 2–4
10% 80%
0.32
Feb 01 South Shore Kings @ Providence Capitals - Vanacore 2–9
9% 84%
0.25
Feb 01 Islanders Hockey Club @ Minuteman Flames 6–2
88% 6%
0.18
Feb 01 Minuteman Flames @ Islanders Hockey Club 5–5
4% 91%
4.46 UPSET
Feb 06 Boston Jr Eagles @ Islanders Hockey Club 2–2
54% 30%
2.72 UPSET
Feb 07 South Shore Kings @ Minuteman Flames 4–6
67% 21%
2.28
Feb 07 Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite @ Providence Capitals - Vanacore 2–2
24% 63%
2.91 UPSET
Feb 07 Boston Jr Eagles @ Boston Jr Terriers 7–1
82% 9%
0.30
Feb 08 Boston Jr Eagles @ Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite 4–1
50% 33%
1.01
Feb 08 Boston Jr Terriers @ Minuteman Flames 5–2
49% 35%
1.02
Feb 08 Islanders Hockey Club @ South Shore Kings 3–2
66% 22%
0.61
Feb 21 Boston Jr Terriers @ Islanders Hockey Club 5–4
11% 80%
3.21 UPSET
Feb 21 Minuteman Flames @ Top Gun 0–10
2% 96%
0.06
Feb 21 Providence Capitals - Vanacore @ South Shore Kings 4–3
82% 10%
0.28
Feb 21 Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite @ Boston Jr Eagles 1–4
27% 57%
0.82
Feb 22 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Terriers 3–0
90% 4%
0.16
Feb 22 South Shore Kings @ Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite 6–4
18% 69%
2.44
Feb 22 Islanders Hockey Club @ Providence Capitals - Vanacore 2–5
20% 69%
0.54
Feb 22 Boston Jr Terriers @ Top Gun 2–4
3% 92%
0.13